Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[wayneL]

Yeah, i reckon gold's gonna hit the roof. At 756 today...

(I'm being sarcastic incase you didn't notice!).

It's in a consolidation zone between 800 and 250 :

 

[Sean K]

It's in a consolidation zone between 800 and 250 :

Who was that guy that said gold would ´t make a lower low, and was breaking up to $10,000 or something when it was $950 + ish....

He went off to the Perth mint to buy some gold that day.

I think I got in trouble for canning him.....

 

[LeeTV]

Who was that guy that said gold would ´t make a lower low, and was breaking up to $10,000 or something when it was $950 + ish....

He went off to the Perth mint to buy some gold that day.

I think I got in trouble for canning him.....

I thought I saw him busking on Hay St yesterday :

 

[explod]

Bean, you could be the accurate one, after the latest action on the weekly we are forming a head and shoulders and could correct to support at $US640

Which would take us just past the US Presidential election. Look out below.

From the 12th of August 08


Some may well smile now. However as the US dollar become toilet paper early in 2009 shall we see the real events.

Interesting times indeed

 

[Aussiest]

What makes you think the USD will become toilet paper in early 2009?

 

[cuttlefish]

Gold has fallen through the 780-820 range that I saw as technical support so I'd concede that it could now get down into the low 700's and I even see the potential for it to touch 690 though I think any fall down to that level will be short lived and it would return to the mid 700 range fairly quickly.

On the fundamentals I still think that the moves by the US treasury only serve to support a bearish medium to long term view on the USD and as per my post above I'd like to know what alternatives there are as a store of value if the USD is perceived as being a risky investment. Commodities, oil are difficult to store and thus impractical for investors to buy and take delivery of, gold is more practical. The other currencies have shown themselves to be weak/risky as well and they are all theoretically pegged in USD anyway.

The other positive fundamental factor is the reducing mine supply world wide, combined with a growing affluent population with a cultural attachment to gold.

There is very clear value in some of the junior gold stocks and this final fall will hopefully cause the 'final clearance' sort of capitulation that is needed for a steady recovery to start to build.

One of the risks is that some of the better quality juniors will be the subject of opportunistic takeover bids and shareholders won't get to realise the full potential of the assets.

 

[barrett]

Basically it's my take on EW... showing that we may be in an intermediate W3 of a larger W5... so expect.. and as happened... a sharp impulsive drop...

Cheers
.........Kauri

Nice one.. maybe the 730.4 peak of May 06 at 0.38 will have a different role to play here (or just go up in smoke like every other major support so far!)
cheers

Gold 1999-2008

 

[explod]

Nice one.. maybe the 730.4 peak of May 06 at 0.38 will have a different role to play here (or just go up in smoke like every other major support so far!)
cheers

Gold 1999-2008

The retracement of 06 in percentage terms look to be about where we are now on this latest drop. A fall from here would be a real cleanout but that head and shoulders potential looks very real now.

From the political front it is likely that downward pressure will continue. The general confusion with currencies is giving a false sense of safety in that area so I expect, till this Presidential thingo has been determined we could have a much lower gold price yet for awhile.

Those who have not by now worked out the long term protection afforded by gold by now we just cant' help. There are plenty of good explanations already on this thread.

 

[barrett]

The retracement of 06 in percentage terms look to be about where we are now on this latest drop. A fall from here would be a real cleanout but that head and shoulders potential looks very real now.

From the political front it is likely that downward pressure will continue. The general confusion with currencies is giving a false sense of safety in that area so I expect, till this Presidential thingo has been determined we could have a much lower gold price yet for awhile.

Those who have not by now worked out the long term protection afforded by gold by now we just cant' help. There are plenty of good explanations already on this thread.

This whole US dollar rally (aside from being a needed technical retracement) seems to be based on the market's belief that Bernanke will raise rates quite sharply. Is it just me, or is that just a bit unrealistic? We are not even half way through this credit crisis, major institutions like Lehman are under threat, US unemployment is skyrocketing, and the Fed will raise rates?

Taking a look at the USD COT, and the last few weeks tell a tale of the least competent market participants bashing each other out of the way to lay on USD longs.

I'm not adding a gold long yet, because the bid remains so weak and I want to see what happens at 730. I guess I'm looking for the next bottom in gold and oil to be Fed driven, as the delusion of a rate raise evaporates!

 

[barrett]

Explod you mentioned head and shoulders..
..an update on that formation in the HUI.. the first chart attached was made yesterday when the HUI was 267.. overnight it closed at its H&S target of 260 (derived from the two equidistant blue vertical lines). Admittedly reversals do not happen all that often at exact H&S targets, but... the 260 level is also potential support from a much earlier era! (see second HUI chart - a bit out of date, but it shows the potential support at around 260, where we now are). Just one to watch.

 

[Kauri]

This whole US dollar rally (aside from being a needed technical retracement) seems to be based on the market's belief that Bernanke will raise rates quite sharply. Is it just me, or is that just a bit unrealistic? We are not even half way through this credit crisis, major institutions like Lehman are under threat, US unemployment is skyrocketing, and the Fed will raise rates?

Taking a look at the USD COT, and the last few weeks tell a tale of the least competent market participants bashing each other out of the way to lay on USD longs.

I'm not adding a gold long yet, because the bid remains so weak and I want to see what happens at 730. I guess I'm looking for the next bottom in gold and oil to be Fed driven, as the delusion of a rate raise evaporates!

My bet is actually on 1.75%... soon the good ole US of A will no longer be able to pretend it is not in recession by bailing out whoever stumbles... and the consumer will soon be consuming even less than what they are consuming presently.. and as the US is a consumer driven economy... however if Aaarple bring out a must have bit of new useless technology..I guess the must have consumer will plunge into even deeper C/C defaults and ... etc... thanks Joe for encouraging my potteen fueled ramblings
Cheers
,.88........Kauri

 

[barrett]

My bet is actually on 1.75%... soon the good ole US of A will no longer be able to pretend it is not in recession by bailing out whoever stumbles... and the consumer will soon be consuming even less than what they are consuming presently.. and as the US is a consumer driven economy... however if Aaarple bring out a must have bit of new useless technology..I guess the must have consumer will plunge into even deeper C/C defaults and ... etc... thanks Joe for encouraging my potteen fueled ramblings
Cheers
,.88........Kauri

Ah but the US isn't in recession.... didn't you see the latest figures from the ministry of truth?

Some buyers are coming into gold, the Euro and Oil, perhaps not in the numbers needed.. whereabouts are we potentially in the counting of things, 4 of 5 underway perhaps, a sharp one?

 

[Kauri]

Ah but the US isn't in recession.... didn't you see the latest figures from the ministry of truth?

Some buyers are coming into gold, the Euro and Oil, perhaps not in the numbers needed.. whereabouts are we potentially in the counting of things, 4 of 5 underway perhaps, a sharp one?

on the verge of another knee jerk free-world, free-economy, free-fall reaction... after all it is all but the weekend... the best time for well considered, rational, panic...


if this is the seventh in14 months... c'mon Tolouse L.. tanks Joe
Cheers
.............Kauri

 

[barrett]

An economic calendar for all those useful government statistics..
http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/
Tomorrow.. US retail sales.. a bullish revenue bonanza beyond the most clueless analyst's wildest dreams:
Next Tues.. US CPI announcement (probably on the low side?) and.. Fed rate announcement!
Potentially a turning point for gold.. amid the lunacy?

As counterpoint to the bullish possibilities, I have to note the horrible breakdown through gold's 300DMA... yesterday's breakdown through that supporting trendline.... and this.. ouch!

AUDUSD 1999-2008

 

[barrett]

And finally... a call of sanity in the economic wilderness?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/26656750
"When the government can no longer pass the United States' "immense debt" on to taxpayers, it will turn to the holders of U.S. dollars".

 

[Lucky_Country]

Well an article that tells it the way it is.
Gold the safe haven yet is dropping away but hopefully the FED will do something about that on Tuesday !
Strong demand, lower production, higher production costs, US$ a wreck, significant gold finds rare is there a beter time to be in gold ?

 

[Uncle Festivus]

I think a virtual line in the sand has been drawn perhaps, with several indicators either hitting new lows or highs, even oversold and overbought, again.

The DX pops it's head over the 80 parapet after what can only be described as a suspiciously breathtaking rebound, and gold succombs to the lower range ie oversold of it's long term fundamental 'fair value' ie between $750-$800.

For it is all perfectly coordinated for the Feds innner circle and the wider global central bank community, and when the time is right the 'Friends of the Fed' will be allowed to exit their $US holdings at a far better price, but at the expense of the one shining light for the US economy - exports. The hope that the rising DX will make imports cheaper to entice consumers to one final morsal of binge consumption?

Just as gold equities have telegraphed the retreat long before gold tanked, I would be looking to a change of sentiment to bullish now, and I have been buying some 'bargains' myself this week. Several gold stocks are now priced for as little as their cash backing ie nothing for production or exploration potential. Is this the 'blood in the streets' time for gold equities?

I will stick my neck out to provisionally call it a bottom, but the 2 months to the US election still may provide 'risk' from official efforts to neutralise the truth with window dressing (an amazing rally in the last half hr for the Dow no less!). The emporor is naked after all, and it's approaching winter .

 

[Bolivia]

I am not a techi so cannot really comment on where, technically gold could get to, but I have some idea about economics and fundementals.

A Few points to consider:

1. The USA has at present the highest ever Public debt as a % of GDP.

2. The Current account deficit is at or near all time high records.

3. With the whole commodity complex having been savaged over the last few months, inflationary pressures are sure to drop (in the short term).

4. As a result of these drops in commodity prices the US$ has staged a remarkable rally, also reducing short term inflation pressures.

The result of these changes over the last few months has presented some really conflicting scenarios.

It is now incredibly unlikely that the Fed is going to need to raise rates to deal with inflation in the near term. In fact with unemployment rising, GDP falling, consumer demand on the precipice of collapsing, housing just a basket case, the likelyood of them raising is now very small. In fact rates are now able to be lowered back to 1% or less because a) They have to and b) they are able to.

The end result of all this is that the US$ has absolutely no chance of sustaining its rally and in fact I see the US$ having a severe reversal. With the US$ going back down THE PRICE OF GOLD WILL REBOUND SHARPLY. Why the US$ has rallied so much just doesn't make sense (to me).

About 20-25 years ago Greenspan was absolutely adament that the health of any countries currency was the state of it's Current account and the Gov debt. The USA's could not be any worse and I just cannot see how the currency can hold up.

One final point - In the long run, with the USA having had such a relaxed Monetary policy for such a long time, Inflation is bound to rear a very ugly head. This can only be positive for gold in the long run.

Note: I have not included any discussion about gold supply and mines etc. That is a whole other story.

 

[explod]

I am not a techi so cannot really comment on where, technically gold could get to, but I have some idea about economics and fundementals.

The end result of all this is that the US$ has absolutely no chance of sustaining its rally and in fact I see the US$ having a severe reversal. With the US$ going back down THE PRICE OF GOLD WILL REBOUND SHARPLY. Why the US$ has rallied so much just doesn't make sense (to me).

I am not much of a techi nor economist. I have however followed the sociological (sentiment) for a number of years. INVESTMENT IS SENTIMENT. Yes the rally in the dollar is all about getting some of the right people off the hook but is first political for the sheeple.

In part it was engineered off the downturns across the UK, then Europe and now asia. The perception and focus that "hey, we in the US are now ok, the rest of them have the problem"

 

[bean]

POG has closed down 9 days straight on Comex
= record
What goes down must go UP?
Well in Golds case anyway

Some rocket fuel to help IKE upgraded
And
Another one bites the dust
http://http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/080911/lehman.html

Filling up yesterday and today
I Have a Full tank