Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[MRC & Co]

Seems we have been down this track before. You called it wrong and went a way for a long time.

ha ha ha.

There does appear to be a trend to these appearances.

In all seriousness though, I am a bit worried about POG in the medium-term now. For the first time in some time, I have started to see some negative sentiment in the resources sector, even noting some big players (funds) have been exiting some long-term positions in the sector.

Wait until the end of the Olympics IMO to see what starts to come out of China, negative news and commodities will be in trouble, at least base metals. Ultimately a fall in inflation and the POG will result. May just be what the US needs to get itself out of this stagflation problem without needing a deep recession. But as UF says, there are some deeper core problems which will surface in the longer-term.

Sidelines definately the clearest place when it comes to the POG for me at the moment, or for the market in general. Prefer to limit my asymmetrical leverage and as of a few weeks ago, geometric profits have said goodbye!

I am looking for a bounce in the short-term of the general market and a continued slide of POO into 100-110. If only just a 'feeling' :

 

[explod]

From the Gold Market report, this morning our time:.

(from MarketWatch) --
Gold prices moved higher in electronic trading on Globex immediately after the U.S. Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 2%, then moved lower again. The Fed made its announcement at about 2:15 p.m. EDT -- after regular trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed. The Fed gave no sign that it plans to change policy in the foreseeable future. The Fed statement "indicates it is returning to monetary wimp mode," said Ned Schmidt, editor of the Value View Gold Report. The Federal Open Market Committee "is not going to raise rates till inflation or dollar depreciation reaches massive proportion." So the "dollar will return to [a] bear market, and gold will make a new high by October," said Schmidt, in emailed comments. "Gold will now begin to gradually refocus on the longer term fundamentals," he said.

Quite a few gold stocks are forming a reverse hammer into the close today, next few days will be interesting

 

[elnico50]

Excuse my ignorance, but how does one obtain data in order to chart spot gold?

I use Incredible Charts, and the code for AU gold is "GOLD". Is there a code for the US price? Perhaps from Yahoo?

Cheers

 

[wavepicker]

Kennas,

Short term swings on the way down were good. F....ed the re test up I agree. Long term bearish wavecount is intact and not violated. Always difficult to cal short term swings.

Explod, you are a phoney. You claim yo be up 45% since last year on physical when in actual fact in AUD terms you are up less than half that. Just be honest. All this hoohah about cleaning up on Gold for all these months... Man you must have a lot of time on your hands..

RS and Temjin, I lost my repect for both of you about a couple of hundred posts back.

It ain't half obvious all you dudes are long Gold and hurting.

Catch you guys again at $600. PS I see higher lows on the USD, Gold is going down before going up.

 

[Temjin]

RS and Temjin, I lost my repect for both of you about a couple of hundred posts back.

It ain't half obvious all you dudes are long Gold and hurting.

Catch you guys again at $600. PS I see higher lows on the USD, Gold is going down before going up.

Wow, you are sure to make a quick assumption that we are all currently on gold long. I'm not sure about RS or others, but I have been on side line for quite a while now since getting out (while not at the top of course) just after the $1030 crash down.

So you automatically don't respect ANYONE who have a opposite view of your opinions? Well done, I wonder how you get by life everyday? I suggest that you learn to disagree with someone and just accept it without resorting to criticism. Check my previous posts, I have NEVER directly criticised your trading methods, just the way you deal with others who don't agree with you.

While I don't know about others, I never gave a 100% guarantee prediction on the future direction of gold. Nothing is certain because anything could happen. However, you sound like as if you are betting your life saving into gold reaching USD $600 and that you are 100% certain that it will go that way.

I wonder if you ever had a moment thought about your analysis is not correct? What if your wave counts are wrong? What will you do then? I remember Nick taught us that not every single charts can be intrepreted by EW alone and forcing the theory on it will not work. It's not the "holy grail" to 100% accurate prediction.

 

[bean]

For EW re POG and where its going
http://http://www.321gold.com/editorials/field/field080608.html

Yes POG will be going down not a low as I thought last year, Its still in a BULL
US $ index its about 74 at present
Long term view will see it finish in the low to mid 30's

So figure what the POG will be then

It doesn't mean POG will double
Before calculating see what the US $ index was when POG was US$250 and the % both have moved since then

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Wow, you are sure to make a quick assumption that we are all currently on gold long. I'm not sure about RS or others, but I have been on side line for quite a while now since getting out (while not at the top of course) just after the $1030 crash down.

So you automatically don't respect ANYONE who have a opposite view of your opinions? Well done, I wonder how you get by life everyday? I suggest that you learn to disagree with someone and just accept it without resorting to criticism. Check my previous posts, I have NEVER directly criticised your trading methods, just the way you deal with others who don't agree with you.

While I don't know about others, I never gave a 100% guarantee prediction on the future direction of gold. Nothing is certain because anything could happen. However, you sound like as if you are betting your life saving into gold reaching USD $600 and that you are 100% certain that it will go that way.

I wonder if you ever had a moment thought about your analysis is not correct? What if your wave counts are wrong? What will you do then? I remember Nick taught us that not every single charts can be intrepreted by EW alone and forcing the theory on it will not work. It's not the "holy grail" to 100% accurate prediction.

good on u temjin.

I bought up all the Kleenex stocks i could get my hands on after reading that!

You're going to make me rich!

 

[>Apocalypto<]

For EW re POG and where its going
http://http://www.321gold.com/editorials/field/field080608.html

Yes POG will be going down not a low as I thought last year, Its still in a BULL
US $ index its about 74 at present
Long term view will see it finish in the low to mid 30's

So figure what the POG will be then

It doesn't mean POG will double
Before calculating see what the US $ index was when POG was US$250 and the % both have moved since then

so good to be reading these posts again! Bean when u writing a book? when u do put me down for one!

 

[Sean K]

7 Aug:

Is the short term bottom in for POG and gold stocks
Unfortunately not at the moment
Buy end of the week

Keeping this for posterity Bean.

You and josjes may have to get a room....

 

[cuttlefish]

Flight to cash will continue for a while and keep a dampener on stock prices I suspect but the gold price itself I think might be ready to move back up into the $900's over the next few months and maybe even tackle the $1000 level again as we head into xmas, driven by capital flowing out of USD based assets. Central bank sales are the only potential damper on that but I see it well supported in the mid to high $800's. If it made a decisive move down below the $820 sort of area I'd revise that outlook.

In the meantime on the gold stock front I still suspect we'll see a few more gold producers follow in VRE and MON's footsteps and disappear from the boards, and a lot of junior explorers fizzle off into a horizonless neverland of low liquidity and market caps sitting around cash backing.

I've got a reasonable cash weighting at the moment and also reshuffled to more defensive gold (and oil) stock holdings. In spite of the selldown I still see a little more room on the downside for quite a few of the gold stocks and I also see a lot that I don't think will be recovering any time soon, if ever, unless gold runs strongly, but I'm also seeing the value opportunities arising amongst the field as well.

I think the fundamentals are still sound for gold price to continue to strengthen over the next two years through a combination of a drop in supply and an increased demand as a store of value away from the USD.

 

[kbxk508]

Interesting posts in the last few days,

Both $Gold and $USD Index have either just crossed or touched there 200 Day MA - key Support/Resistance levels in the past. How this plays out in the next week or two will be critical to see if there is a continuation or reversal of current sentiment.

Refer to the following link http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui and use symbols $GOLD and $USD. Sorry, not a member so cannot download.

I wouldn't be surprised to see further declines in $Gold over the next few days - but whatever happens it is currently o'sold while the $USD Index is o'bought going by RSI's.

Here's an interesting look at the direction of $Gold short term using EW principles by Alf Field.

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Field/aug062008.html

I'm not claiming to agree or disagree with this and all arguments for the short and intermediate direction of $Gold have merit. Although, I think there is not much doubt in the long term direction - just my oplinion, DYOR.

Interesting to note the US Fed and ECB are currently holding rates and AUS Reserve is indicating they may drop rates.

Is the so called 'demand destruction' in commodities real?

Another variable to look at is the 10-year Treasury Note, symbol $TNX which is also near it's 200 Day MA - any weakness in the 10-year bond will be bullish for $Gold. Cheers.

kbxk508

 

[kbxk508]

Is the so called 'demand destruction' in commodities real?

kbxk508

As a footnote to my previous post, it would be brave (or foolish) for the US Fed to raise rates in a meaningful way in the short term as this would be catastrophic / destructive to the housing market and would lead to more foreclosures, delinquancies etc. This would also have a negative impact on banks (if you can believe what you read), and would be bullish $Gold. On the other hand if rates remain low then this too would be bullish $Gold - the key component being time. Of course, if the housing crisis is not as bad as what is made out - all bets are off. Just my thoughts.

Commodities of all types have plunged recently, lead by a $30 drop in Oil, following the ECB's 0.25% increase on 3rd July where market psychology switched from “fears of inflation” to worries about “demand destruction", and again I ask the same question

Is the so called "demand destruction" in commodities real?

kbxk508

 

[Sean K]

Is the so called "demand destruction" in commodities real?

kbxk508

If you listened to or saw any of the presentations at the Diggers and Dealers conference, you'd have to say stronger for longer, supercycle still in tact, technical and sentiment driven sell off.

(some commod GMs and CEOs may have a bias )

They obviously assume the coming world recession will not dint demand that much.

 

[Sean K]

100% from May/June low and mid term support at $860, and 200 da ma around this level. Almost 50% from longer term breakout at $650. Next stop $830 ish on breakdown.

Maybe.

 

[explod]

Excuse my ignorance, but how does one obtain data in order to chart spot gold?

I use Incredible Charts, and the code for AU gold is "GOLD". Is there a code for the US price? Perhaps from Yahoo?

Cheers

No one is ignorant, we just know different things.

The chart I use is free, it can give you live 10second, 1 minute, 10 minute, hourly, daily and weekly. The latter can go back 10 years. Can make it candle stick or the others.

Need to navigate the site and you can have silver, oil, corn etc.

It is www.livecharts.co.uk/MarketCharts/gold.php

When you get it up take curser to top right of small chart to options, get your setting, then repeat and detach chart, enlarge to full size, then you can go back to home chart and brign up other commodities and have them all running together.

 

[bean]

7 Aug:



Keeping this for posterity Bean.

You and josjes may have to get a room....

Kennas
well will find out soon as POG and POS are testing area's I was given for a possible bounce or a halt to stop the slide.
But I have been given a lower target if this gives way.

"There is also a conventional support at 869.00 -- an important low made on June 12 -- that could be expected to temporarily halt, or possibly even reverse, gold's slide."

December Gold
Last 65-Days
Highest 999.4 on 07/15/08
Lowest 869.0 on 06/12/08

 

[Sean K]

Kennas
well will find out soon as POG and POS are testing area's I was given for a possible bounce or a halt to stop the slide.
But I have been given a lower target if this gives way.

"There is also a conventional support at 869.00 -- an important low made on June 12 -- that could be expected to temporarily halt, or possibly even reverse, gold's slide."

Bean,

Calling these precise levels is fraught with danger, IMO. As is calling days for bottoms and tops. The most dedicated TA here, WP, is still working on his time and price analysis....

I think you're much better going for zones and if you're into cycles then give a zone of time and price. I am yet to see anyone consistantly give exact time and price movements. A one off correct call does not cut it.

Cripes, if anyone could call time and price consistantly why would they be wasting their time here?


In regard to 'possible bounce' you wouldn't need to be a rocket surgeon to see the $860 ish support level.

 

[bean]

well that number appears to have halted POG slide for the moment. But no bounce so far.

The next number if that gives way is about $20 lower.
I won't give the 'exact' number .

If the HUI or XAU Indexs fall hard tonight that will be very Bearish as they will be taken out lows set on wednesday.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Deja vu?

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Great night hey Gold bugs!

LOL so any of you looked at daily chart of USD index? looks like a break out to me Ha Ha Ha

USD is dead yeh right!

Cleaned up tonight shorting eur/usd god bless the flight to safety!

Good trading

**And yes I do see a anti usd rally into next week so dont get to excited, normal to see a counter rally after these kinds of moves.**