Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[wavepicker]

When last Apocalyto and myself posted we made some quite good short term calls on the downtrend. We lost our way somewhat expecting a continuation and the market did not play ball with our thoughts as it decided to retest the previous high.

These are our current short term musings (both EW and Cycle Analysis) for Gold. Like Oil and the Euro and the AUDUSD Gold appears to have completed 5 waves down as well as reaching the lower boundaries of our Cycle Analsyis bands and should now rally back up to the nominal at least at 940. Thereafter I am betting on a multi year decline alongside the AUDUSD and Euro as they correct the last 5 years of advances as per the long term EW labels on our charts some months ago which unlike our short term analysis has never been invalidated and as such needs no updating (kennas)

Cheers

 

[CamKawa]

Interesting chart WP, this is what my daily chart is saying:

ADX -> sell signal, with a weak trend
RSI -> not technically oversold but it may have reached a low compared to recent history
STO -> is saying buy
MACD -> is saying sell
Is that a fair interpretation?

 

[MRC & Co]

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Professor, you anywhere around here? This would be your cup of tea wouldn't it? Lots of pretty colour.

 

[wavepicker]

Interesting chart WP, this is what my daily chart is saying:

ADX -> sell signal, with a weak trend
RSI -> not technically oversold but it may have reached a low compared to recent history
STO -> is saying buy
MACD -> is saying sell
Is that a fair interpretation?

Hello Camkawa,

One word sums is up: AMBIGUOUS
You know a wise veteran trader once said to me :

"Using lagging indicators is like chasing shadows across a wall"

I would have to say, he was bang on right.

Cheers

 

[professor_frink]

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Professor, you anywhere around here? This would be your cup of tea wouldn't it? Lots of pretty colour.

nah not that much colour(no offence CamKawa)


The cheek of some folk around here..........

 

[Uncle Festivus]

And so it has come to pass. The fear that gold equities will be 'contaminated' by the rest of the market negative contagion has eventuated. All the while the AU price of gold has traded around $AU970, but always above $950 for several weeks now, helped by the tanking $AU. So why the panic? Value investors will see bargains?

Waiting for the resolution of the consolidating wedge? Started accumulation phase long gold & equities for September break out?

 

[CamKawa]

LGL a is down 8.89% and AVO 7.56%. Maybe they have been tainted with the BHP and RIO brush which are both down about 5.8%. Has the commodities boom gone bust? Where's the Aussie going to be come Christmas?

 

[Uncle Festivus]

LGL a is down 8.89% and AVO 7.56%. Maybe they have been tainted with the BHP and RIO brush which are both down about 5.8%. Has the commodities boom gone bust? Where's the Aussie going to be come Christmas?

I'm trying to stay focused on the 'big picture' underlying fundamentals while all hell breaks loose? If the interest rate cycle here is heading down and we get a recession then the Aussie is toast, which will keep supporting the local price.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=315495&postcount=4688

We will be in recession in 2009
Leverage into gold & cash & food supply
Short the Aussie dollar
Commodities will correct

 

[CamKawa]

Wow, NCM is down 11.57%! Talk about head for hills.

 

[Whiskers]

When last Apocalyto and myself posted we made some quite good short term calls on the downtrend. We lost our way somewhat expecting a continuation and the market did not play ball with our thoughts as it decided to retest the previous high.

These are our current short term musings (both EW and Cycle Analysis) for Gold. Like Oil and the Euro and the AUDUSD Gold appears to have completed 5 waves down as well as reaching the lower boundaries of our Cycle Analsyis bands and should now rally back up to the nominal at least at 940. Thereafter I am betting on a multi year decline alongside the AUDUSD and Euro as they correct the last 5 years of advances as per the long term EW labels on our charts some months ago which unlike our short term analysis has never been invalidated and as such needs no updating (kennas)

Cheers

I haven't looked at the POG chart for awhile, but it would be interesting to see the current action on that cycle chart of yours WP. It looks like that little reversal was a bit of a fizzer eh.

I get a pretty good H&S which agrees with my wave count for a short term bottom 'C' about 850.

 

[wavepicker]

Hello whiskers, my cyclic bands said a move back up to 940 before this thumping would occur. Made a meal of that one huh??? Thems the breaks!! Overall though they give pretty good signals except on rare occasions like this when the market is in a hurry to move down!! The smaller you go in the timeframes the harder it is to trade!!
Long terms EW analysis of Gold and AUDUSD seems to be turning out very well though. I have been waiting for this correction since late last year and it has finally arrived! IMO it will be a multi year affair


Cheers

 

[Whiskers]

Hello whiskers, my cyclic bands said a move back up to 940 before this thumping would occur. Made a meal of that one huh??? Thems the breaks!! Overall though they give pretty good signals except on rare occasions like this when the market is in a hurry to move down!! The smaller you go in the timeframes the harder it is to trade!!
Long terms EW analysis of Gold and AUDUSD seems to be turning out very well though. I have been waiting for this correction since late last year and it has finally arrived! IMO it will be a multi year affair


Cheers

Yeah, I've been waiting since the end of last year from a FA perspective for a turn around in the currencies which will eventually help Aus resource stocks.

But the surge in oil was the red herring there that I hadn't studied close enough. It's dead in the water now though I think.

There's little doubt that we're on the way now though. I fully expected the AUD to tank first and more than the rise in the USD. The sooner the USD index gets up now the sooner the markets will go BULListic again.

 

[wavepicker]

There's little doubt that we're on the way now though. I fully expected the AUD to tank first and more than the rise in the USD. The sooner the USD index gets up now the sooner the markets will go BULListic again.

That ending diagonal pattern in the AUDUSD took forever to finish, got real sluggish toward the end. Only one result from an ED, a very sharp reversal. I hold USD ATM, but me thinks the AUD could be headed back to 70-75c which is a long ways off still!!

 

[Uncle Festivus]

There's little doubt that we're on the way now though. I fully expected the AUD to tank first and more than the rise in the USD. The sooner the USD index gets up now the sooner the markets will go BULListic again.

FWIW, I see gold has finally pierced the lower trend line I had, a capitulation dip?, hopefully for a short tail excursion through it, which should be followed by a resumption of the USD bear after a 4 week run and gold strength to test the upper symetrical wedge line again.

Oil is 'basing' around 120, Wall street have had their day in the sun, time for reality again - who's turn is it for a write-off/bankruptcy?

 

[Uncle Festivus]

And the focus, still, is the naked level of fear by the US Fed that shows up in the relentless debasement of the US economy by 'creating' more IOU's - MZM Money Supply. That's 2 TRILLION in a year! Why buy something that is increasing in supply ie $USD?

 

[Sean K]

Hovering around 200d ma, which has been support for some time. And, completing the H&S perhaps. Oversold stochs. And close to $860 ish support. All conspiring perhaps?

Or, we're looking at the start of a significant change maybe? But if so, how long?

Yes, good work kennas. It could go anywhere.

But long term, USD doomed, gold up.

Poor LGL and NCM

 

[Whiskers]

FWIW, I see gold has finally pierced the lower trend line I had, a capitulation dip?, hopefully for a short tail excursion through it, which should be followed by a resumption of the USD bear after a 4 week run and gold strength to test the upper symetrical wedge line again.

Oil is 'basing' around 120, Wall street have had their day in the sun, time for reality again - who's turn is it for a write-off/bankruptcy?

Gold is just hanging on in the short term until Tropical Storm Edouard goes away. It looks like it's weaker than expected and phisselling out.

Your right in so far as the economic statistics go uncle, but I think the US will feel a big sigh of relief that POO has, or rather (dare I say) is crashing back to acceptable levels that consumer confidence and the economy will rebound spectacularly supported further by the strengthening USD.

Consequently I see gold being out of favour for awhile until the economy starts going off the rails again or supply starts contracting... which it probably will do as a consequence of a lot of mining operations being put on care and maintaince or upgrades deferred while oil was going balistic.

However, bear in mind that in AUD terms it probably won't change so dramatically.

 

[Whiskers]

Hovering around 200d ma, which has been support for some time. And, completing the H&S perhaps. Oversold stochs. And close to $860 ish support. All conspiring perhaps?

Or, we're looking at the start of a significant change maybe? But if so, how long?

Yes, good work kennas. It could go anywhere.

Lol, let me help ya out kennas.

The weekly MACD tells the story for me.

Yer know what I reckon. That EW count I got looks like being a flat. I reckon the POG only kicked on the last week of June because POO did... therefore we wouldn't have had the last shoulder and it would have been a straight impulsive leg down.

But long term, USD doomed, gold up.

Still agree there, but I still have to eat in the meantime... can't hold my breath that long.

Poor LGL and NCM

Yes indeed. Theres been a few that just seemed to dive, or was that die, the last couple of days.

 

[Sean K]

Yes indeed. Theres been a few that just seemed to dive, or was that die, the last couple of days.

Bought more of both in the past week.

Apparantly, Merrilly Lunching are exiting LGL and were most of the volume the past few days. Obviously no idea how much they're diluting to. They must need cash for some reason.....


Are gold stocks leading gold at the moment?

 

[Whiskers]

Are gold stocks leading gold at the moment?

From all the reports etc I've been reading, it seems that production costs are what's really worrying directors and ultimately shareholders... especially insto's that are short of cash or prefer to get at least a small positive return in the bank.

So it may take a little while for people to feel confident oil is gonna stay down and then when they see the AUD doing them a favour falling as well they'll start coming back into the market.

I reckon it's simple... but the average person on the street is still worrying and talking about high oil. I think probably they won't feel comfortable until the bowser price has come back to match the crude falls.

PS: I still like my theory that a lot of cash will find it's way back into shares as it leaves commodoties, oil and gold in particular. Don't know the numbers, but it must be huge sums deserting oil atm.