Gold Price - Where is it heading?

>Apocalypto< said:

After all the banter and all the rubbish. in the end Wavepicker and I were right the gold trend has changed and the main trend line it was on since it made it's rally out of 700 is OVER! it's now selling down I have shorted it twice and cleaned up!

if u still disagree then see the daily chart that anit a up move no move!

I don't expect any of you to say yes you and WP were right. The chart tells me that for u all.

Cheers

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Hey, you can't steal all the credit. I was in there too. :

Only, from a more FA, I'm calling the POG more sideways than down until about year end or so. I also basically agree that the USD will appreciate a bit more in the short term, but I'm not expecting another lower low for the XAO, because of how all these factors will probably re-align with each other.

I'm expecting the POG to gain more in AUD than USD as the major currencies and POG re-align with a bit stronger USD.

I think it also should be kept in mind the reputed enormous growth in funds slooshing around in the 'speculative' markets, including oil lately, probably creating a bit of self-fullfilling volatility and scewing TA a bit.

I'm more like a gold bug in fundamental sense but technically, I believe gold will at best consolidate in range for quite some time, probably 2 months+.

The weekly chart still look quite bearish to me. Until I get a confirmation from there, it's a short term play.

I would be quite surprised to see POG to drop below 850 and head back toward 600-700 range. I'm sure if that it does that, all the commentors will start yelling the gold bull is over and it's time to invest back in the US dollars again.

Wavepicker, can you pick up a similar EW pattern for US dollars to move back up by a significant amount over the next few months? I would be interested to know. If you see bear in USD and bear in gold, and then it actually happens in the real world, then it would be the first time in history that these two "assets" defy their traditional correlations.

Remember people, everybody have their own style of tradings. Being right or wrong does not really matter, it's being able to exploit the trend (with obvious position sizing strategies) for profit that's more important.

wavepicker said:

After a long time at looking at charts something happened to me that I thought was not possible. Quite simply I pick and look at a chart and don't bother looking at the the name of the company or instrument. I just look at patterns and that alongside the liquidity factor is my basis for buying and selling.

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I've recently also had a 'vision' after ages looking at charts.

I've never been very fond of lagging MA's, but one day I spent ages fiddling with some particular types of MA's with price and volume's until I came up with three in combination that I've got working pretty well on the daily and intraday charts to indicate good probability movements.

But I'm still working on waves and P&F. That hasn't quite come to me yet.

wavepicker said:

This is not a competition about who is right or wrong.

We should not be arguing here about who makes the best call, it doesn't matter. I have been dissapointed at 2 posters on this thread in the past because after posting alternate views based on objective Technical Analysis techniques my analysis is nitpicked constantly because it does not conform to their views and their positions. I am sure they would not have liked it.

The name of this thread is "Where is Gold Headed?" I think we should all try to keep to the spirit of the thread rather than aggrevate each other. Who knows, maybe we could even help each other!!

So where is Gold headed gentlemen? Well it is headed down, no one can deny this no matter how many lagging MA's, and trendlines you draw. There is no point getting angry at each other, the trend is what it is. How much lower? Well probably much lower becasue ATM there is no evidence to show otherwise.

In the same way the trend has changed now and once again many have missed the boat because they have gotten caught up in the bulltrend and married their positions

Ohh and Implod, I am not a dreamer you and RS and dreamers for thinking Gold will rise to 2000 or even 3000. My target is very realistic because it's only 200 bucks away. Sweet dreams.

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WP, I agree its not a competition and everyone has their own way of trading, and each can do well quite differently.

Having said its not a competition, you then state as forcefully as possible that gold is going down, no arguments allowed and anyone who thinks differently is a dreamer.

Interestingly, at $850 you were bearish and irate with anyone who disagreed. Gold promptly rose $80. Now its fallen $50/60, what will it do now? Sorry, its not a given at all it will tank further from here, you can't get upset just because people post opposing viewpoints. I respect your EW analysis, I'm only saying its not infallible and there are other ways of looking at it.

I don't want to keep arguing cos its pointless, everyone has clearly stated their views, we'll wait and see what happens.

refined silver said:

WP, I agree its not a competition and everyone has their own way of trading, and each can do well quite differently.

Having said its not a competition, you then state as forcefully as possible that gold is going down, no arguments allowed and anyone who thinks differently is a dreamer.

Interestingly, at $850 you were bearish and irate with anyone who disagreed. Gold promptly rose $80. Now its fallen $50/60, what will it do now? Sorry, its not a given at all it will tank further from here, you can't get upset just because people post opposing viewpoints. I respect your EW analysis, I'm only saying its not infallible and there are other ways of looking at it.

I don't want to keep arguing cos its pointless, everyone has clearly stated their views, we'll wait and see what happens.

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That's right RS it's no comp. But Gold is going down at present, only stating what I see.

Yes i was bearish at at $850 and before that at $950. Yes Gold had some intervening rallies too, markets don't move in straight lines now do they?? What do you expect me to do, call every single zig zag move on an intraday day chart?? I don't have a crystal ball you know. Just staying on the right side of the major trend is hard enough. The 650 target stated back then is acheivable as we need only another sub $200 to get there. That is one good high momentum move down like we had in May/June 2006. In my eyes, some of the bluesky targets you stated earlier are what dreams and hope are made of, not good analysis.

But if my memory serves me correct you thought I was mad for even thinking of shorting Gold at $950. Back then you were asking me " when will you finally admit you are wrong?" Well I don't need to just yet, but what about you? When will you finally admit you are wrong and finally decide "enough is enough". Seems to me, you have much more at stake here than me.

Time will tell RS, hey I have nothing to lose, am short I have stops, and have a back up plan. Incdidentally what is your back up plan?? Hold and Hope??

Crikey this thread is like daytime television...in the '80s! Call the price, I made nearly $1500 on the swings while you guys were arguing! I think the real problem is Kauri's budgie figured out how to print money... and is relaxing somewhere on a private caribbean beach.. come back kaaaaauriiii!

barrett said:

Crikey this thread is like daytime television...in the '80s! Call the price, I made nearly $1500 on the swings while you guys were arguing! I think the real problem is Kauri's budgie figured out how to print money... and is relaxing somewhere on a private caribbean beach.. come back kaaaaauriiii!

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Lol

I'm also happy to inhabit the lower time frames.

Sheesh!

Interesting 888 has come up yet again, capping the rally.. this was in theory going to be an ideal spot to go short.. and yet the volume has been pointing 'up'... confused

barrett said:

Interesting 888 has come up yet again, capping the rally.. this was in theory going to be an ideal spot to go short.. and yet the volume has been pointing 'up'... confused

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Move down in Gold from the last high looks more corrective and hard to count. EURUSD is definately an uncompleted impulse and will have further to run IMO. If my count is correct(not saying it is), this is a 4th wave of some type we are in and the rally should finish soon. We need to reach the 38.2% level of the 3rd wave move down. Thereafter market might still continue sideways before heading lower and finding OBVIOUS support at the previous swing low. Cycles Analysis backs that up too. I took a small long position in the euro and just closed it for 55 pips.

Cheers

Just spottd this and is well worth our consideration:-

<quote>

Dear Jim,

A review of the 1970’s shows a period much like the current time. The background of the period was when inflation was rising along with oil and gold. The dollar was generally declining and politicians were all over the media talking about how inflation would be cured in no time. When this didn’t work they started with statements saying they would make gold sales from government inventories (and they did). They went to the media and said gold was a barbarous relic, speculators are destroying the economy and should be punished, congress and the executive branch are blameless, we have not hurt the economy with our monetary and fiscal policy and many more such witticisms.

Gold went from an average price of $35.94 in 1970 to $120.17 in July 1973; an increase of 233%.
Then it fell from $120.17 to below $95 by Nov 1973 for a decline of over 20% in 4 months.
In March 1975, COMEX gold peaked at $187.50 for a rise of over 90% in 17 months.
In August 1976, COMEX gold bottomed at $101 for a 46% decline in 17 months, during this time gold had moved little for the previous 2 years and nine months. Then it began to move rapidly as US inflation began to be a problem in 1977, 1978 and 1979.
In October 1978, COMEX gold peaked at $249.40 for a rise of 147% in 26 months. By this time inflation in the developed world was high and rising much like inflation in the developing world is today.
In November 1978, COMEX gold bottomed at $191.20 for a decline of 24% in one month. Inflation continues to be a problem.
In January 1980 COMEX gold peaked at $873, an increase of over 350% in 14 months. After gold peaks, inflation begins to moderate. Paul Volcker has taken over at the Federal Reserve and administers some strong anti-inflationary interest rate increases which lead to a recession. He is a strong and steady force for moderation in money supply growth and reduces the public’s inflationary expectations.
In my opinion, we are at the beginning of a period of inflation in the emerging world that may be the equivalent of early 1978 in the developed world. The developing nations are making the same mistakes with price controls which incentivize consumption, export restrictions which incentivize global hoarding, tariffs and many other artificial boundaries which create market dislocations and lead to higher prices.

We can be sure that we will see the old stand bys: government threats of sales from their inventories and restrictions on trading commodities in many parts of the world. None of this will work until they implement higher interest rates and other tight monetary and fiscal policies which will slow economic activity and moderate inflationary expectations. The result will be an end to inflation.

Between now and the time that they implement these policies (I don’t know how long it will take them to get wise) we will see more inflation and much higher gold prices. The primary purchasers of gold will be the newly wealthy citizens of the emerging world.

Respectfully yours,
Monty Guild
www.GuildInvestment.com



<end quote>

from Jim Sinclair's web page, today

This one also from a contributor to Jim's site is looking likely after the bounce overnight.

Not being adamant, anything can happen, just my 2cents

WP I won't keep arguing with you, but when Gold goes to $1000, and misses your targets, I expect you to say, I was stopped out, no big deal.

Yes I've got a lot more riding on it than you, but its not margined, doesn't expire, so I can afford to wait if necessary.

If I was negative on your shorting at 950, it would only have been because you'd been bearish and wrong for the last $300 upward, continually calling tops. For someone who's supposedly made so much on short side, your posts are most bearish at precisiely the wrong times.

refined silver said:

WP I won't keep arguing with you, but when Gold goes to $1000, and misses your targets, I expect you to say, I was stopped out, no big deal.

Yes I've got a lot more riding on it than you, but its not margined, doesn't expire, so I can afford to wait if necessary.

If I was negative on your shorting at 950, it would only have been because you'd been bearish and wrong for the last $300 upward, continually calling tops. For someone who's supposedly made so much on short side, your posts are most bearish at precisiely the wrong times.

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I have had enough conversing with RS, you will have your blinkers on till you are broke.

End Of Discusssion. Don't bother replying as you won't get a response

This whole debate has gotten to a stupid level.

Here's the way I see it.

Myself WP and others are all short term traders. Explod RS you are in it for the long term. so we all have our wires crossed and that's what is leading to the posted rubbish from us all. I personally think this thread is now going down hill.

Since the high when it first broke myself and WP plus other posters have been putting forward a case for lower prices and it has happened as we said it would. None of us ever said the bull was dead. What me and WP have been posting is short to medium term the trend off the main line was over and it is! Refer to daily chart. Sure the fundamentals are all in tact and suggest the bull will keep going I never has said it won't.

Based on this it's gotten way out of hand we have been attacked and we have attacked. This banter is a waste of time and it is actually damaging to my mental skills to trade well.

I do have a problem with people who cut and pasting reports with no personal explanation form the poster to explain why it's right. Many of u do it and I don't like it. Me or WP have never said our charts are right and nothing else is we are just stating a case for what's happening over the short to medium term.

I think we should all take a few deep breaths explain our time frames in more detail and try to learn from each other. debate is healthy if it's done in the right way. this thread has gotten way to ego driven we all need to settle down and go back to constructive posts about were gold is heading.

cheers
Joseph

>Apocalypto< Re: Gold Price - Where is it heading?

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This whole debate has gotten to a stupid level.

I agree with your post. There is in fact three time frames. I have regarded this thread more as a news situation on where gold is heading, hence the bits from Jim Sinclair etc. Many of you however do your own thing from a technical viewpoint and anything outside of this I can see is rubbish. Is there some way in which we may be able to have a gold news and general views of where gold is heading and a seperate more technical thread.

I am happy with the current mix but our persona clashes as you say do put the direction off the topic.

I am a

>Apocalypto< said:

This whole debate has gotten to a stupid level.

Here's the way I see it.

Myself WP and others are all short term traders. Explod RS you are in it for the long term. so we all have our wires crossed and that's what is leading to the posted rubbish from us all. I personally think this thread is now going down hill.

Since the high when it first broke myself and WP plus other posters have been putting forward a case for lower prices and it has happened as we said it would. None of us ever said the bull was dead. What me and WP have been posting is short to medium term the trend off the main line was over and it is! Refer to daily chart. Sure the fundamentals are all in tact and suggest the bull will keep going I never has said it won't.

Based on this it's gotten way out of hand we have been attacked and we have attacked. This banter is a waste of time and it is actually damaging to my mental skills to trade well.

I do have a problem with people who cut and pasting reports with no personal explanation form the poster to explain why it's right. Many of u do it and I don't like it. Me or WP have never said our charts are right and nothing else is we are just stating a case for what's happening over the short to medium term.

I think we should all take a few deep breaths explain our time frames in more detail and try to learn from each other. debate is healthy if it's done in the right way. this thread has gotten way to ego driven we all need to settle down and go back to constructive posts about were gold is heading.

cheers
Joseph

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Very well said and summed up Joseph, could not agree more. I actually refrained from posting for over a week on this thread because of these reasons.

As you say, we all have different goals here and trade different timeframes, there is no right or wrong method to trade/invest, everybody has their own unique approach which is specific to their goals. As such there is no point conversing with fundemental long term investors such as rederob, explod, and RS because they have little understanding of what we are all about and we have little understanding what they about.

Sure I welcome any constructive criticizm about charts/analysis/posts but it's the constant nitpicking that angers me.

Regards

Wavepicker

explod said:

>Apocalypto< Re: Gold Price - Where is it heading?

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This whole debate has gotten to a stupid level.

I agree with your post. There is in fact three time frames. I have regarded this thread more as a news situation on where gold is heading, hence the bits from Jim Sinclair etc. Many of you however do your own thing from a technical viewpoint and anything outside of this I can see is rubbish. Is there some way in which we may be able to have a gold news and general views of where gold is heading and a seperate more technical thread.

I am happy with the current mix but our persona clashes as you say do put the direction off the topic.

I am a

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That's not a bad idea and I am sure the mods can organize it. I will speak to richkid to see what he can arrange. In the meatime, all we have to do simply stop nitpicking each other all the time. If you see a technical post you don't agree with, just move on, the same with myself and Joseph re fundementals.

I understand things can get a touch emotional around here because money is a touchy subject, especially when some have a life savings or other large sums riding on the direction of the market, but one has to learn to deal with their emotions, because emotional traders/investors will eventually get cut to pieces in the market.

Cheers

Prepare launch pad??? Wake me up in July/August???

Wake me up in July/August???

Now at least someone has made a simple statement that binds with the real truth that the market logic abides by ............... CYCLES .

My bet is somewhere around Sept through to November will see another rebound in the resource sector .

On POG the signs for myself were the drop to the low Kauri pointed out and the $920 area . There were certain factors that brought this about , one being cyclical movement and asset allocation shuffling . You can normally set your clock by the goldies drop off in the lead upto Jan / Feb .

I also agree with the technical views and timeframe projections of those with a long term view , but can only say we must trade what is in front of us , this is where opportunity lies .

Mmmmm...... peak gold???

AUSTRALIA'S gold industry had its worst quarterly result, in terms of production, for nearly two decades in the three months to the end of March, with output falling 16 per cent.
Latest figures from Melbourne-based mining consultant and leading gold industry analyst Surbiton Associates show that gold output in the March quarter was a disappointing 53 tonnes, 10 tonnes less than that of the December quarter.
That comes despite record modern-day highs for the gold price, which has soared on the back of a slowdown in the US economy as investors move to more traditional safe-haven investments.

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http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,,23793498-643,00.html?from=public_rss

The bigger operations about to start up or already under construction include Higginsville in Western Australia (Avoca Resources), Gwalia in WA (St Barbara), Ballarat in Victoria (Lihir), Wiluna in WA (Apex Minerals), Prominent Hill in South Australia (Oxiana) and Boddington in WA (Newmont/AngloGold).

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http://business.smh.com.au/miners-going-for-gold-again-20080601-2kic.html