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Refer to the following post I made a while ago:-
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=274158&postcount=3716
Consequently, I have advocated for awhile that the USD will strengthen a bit in the near future and that equates to some easing in demand for gold.
Interesting you say that, Wavepicker is of the same opinion but there dose not seem to be a reason put forward as to why?
Can you give a take on this rationale?
There goes $900
Bring it on $850 I will gladly scoop in for the long term.Make that 889!!!! That should give the bulls something to think about
Make that 889!!!! That should give the bulls something to think about
Make that 889!!!! That should give the bulls something to think about
Not too much to think about. Current price of gold is still $200 an ounce above where it was 12 months ago. The previous correction in 06 was 50% Funny Wavepicker, you only seem to emerge when you have a "told you so" story to tell.
I posted some time back that if all these debts in USD were being called in, it would have to be bullish for the dollar. If those debts are being converted into US treasuries, that's probably even more bullish. I don't know how those things work, but that's my hunch.You have never given a satisfactory explanation of why and when the US$ is going to recover. Would be good to hear that.
The lull in trading from the Asian close to European open often precedes a recovery in the gold price. But I do not claim to know, just something that happens more often than not.
I posted some time back that if all these debts in USD were being called in, it would have to be bullish for the dollar. If those debts are being converted into US treasuries, that's probably even more bullish. I don't know how those things work, but that's my hunch.
850 looks a dead certainty.
I think oil looks like it could break down about 10% or so, and that's another weight.
Now your making things up explod. That's simply not true or fair, or did you not read my last post to you.
I understand your emotion as Gold is falling back, I have been there too. I am still long term bullish like you and consider this a buying opportunity in the months ahead.
I would like Wavepickers take on it. From what he posts here of course it gives the perception that he may not know either.
cheers
I hear, anecdotally, (a nice way of saying rumoured), that the punters reckon that the worst has been revealed in the US of A, and anything major that does crop up will be promptly dealt with by Uncle Ben, whilst Eurozone is seen still carrying a lot of trouble yet to surface (apart hopefully from uberbank which should have cleaned the decks today with the new pilot at the helm). Hence a steady inflow into the $US.. also, apart from the UK, the eurozone CB don't seem too keen on bailing, leaving the likes of uberbank to go to market. The inflows this year into the US, posted previously, certainly seem to back that up. As I am not a fundementalists fundement I have no idea, but it sounds good..
Gold with all of the coupling and decoupling apparently going on, enough to make Casanovas eyes water, seems to mirror the $US.. so does the $ lead gold, or gold lead the dollar, is it co-incidental, or is it.... ??
What are the lease rates at today, what affect can we expect from them??
Is the $ still seen ultimately as a safe haven currency??
Are the PPP/PPT still actively selling or are they now taking a well earned breather??
What will happen if the Indians decide living in sin is better than getting married??
Pondering
..............Kauri
Dollar Tumble Wrecks Forecasts; Deutsche Bank Lowers (Update2)
By Ron Harui and Aaron Pan
April 1 (Bloomberg) -- Dollar bulls are in retreat after the currency's biggest quarterly decline against the euro since 2004 and the largest slump in almost a decade versus the yen.
The dollar will likely gain 1.5 percent to $1.55 per euro and remain little changed near 100 yen by the end of June, according to the median estimate of 40 analysts and economists surveyed by Bloomberg. At the start of 2008, they expected the dollar to strengthen to $1.48 per euro and reach 110 yen.
Deutsche Bank AG, the world's largest foreign-exchange trader, and Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc cut their dollar estimates last month as global credit market losses climbed above $200 billion and reports signaled the U.S. economy may be shrinking. Private foreign investors sold a net $38.2 billion in U.S. securities in January, the most since September, the Treasury Department said March 17.
``We now view the U.S. economy as having slipped into recession while the rest of the world slows more modestly,'' said John Horner, a currency strategist in Sydney for Frankfurt- based Deutsche Bank. That scenario ``argues for further dollar weakness,'' he said.
U.S. growth likely fell to 0.2 percent last quarter, compared with 0.6 percent in the final three months of 2007, according to the median forecast of 85 economists and strategists surveyed by Bloomberg.
Relative Rates
The greenback tumbled 7.6 percent against the euro last quarter to $1.5788. It slid 10.8 percent to 99.69 yen, the most since falling the same amount in the third quarter of 1999, as a decline in stocks from New York to Tokyo and credit market losses led investors to sell high-yielding assets funded with low-interest loans in Japan. The dollar traded at $1.5727 per euro and 99.74 yen at 7:09 a.m. in London.
The Bank of Japan's benchmark rate is 0.5 percent, compared with 2.25 percent in the U.S. and 4 percent for the European Central Bank. The rate in Switzerland, another source of funds for so-called carry trades, is 2.75 percent.
``We hold a bearish dollar outlook,'' said Thanos Papasavvas, London-based head of currency management at Investec Asset Management. ``It's impossible to forecast where the bottom is going to be.''
Investec, which manages the equivalent of $65 billion, decided on March 28 to keep betting against the dollar, Papasavvas said.
The dollar fell last quarter against the 16 most actively- traded currencies except the Canadian dollar, South Korean won and South African rand. It declined the most against the Swiss franc, depreciating 12.4 percent, and gained 2.7 percent versus Canada's currency, 5.9 percent against the won, 17.9 percent to the rand. It was little changed per pound.
Record Low
Deutsche Bank expects the dollar will weaken this quarter to $1.60 per euro, surpassing the $1.5903 reached March 17, the lowest since the single European currency began trading in 1999. A Bloomberg survey in January showed the bank predicted the dollar would rise to $1.43 by yesterday from $1.4589.
Royal Bank of Scotland in Edinburgh, the fourth-biggest foreign-exchange trader, forecasts the dollar will trade at $1.57 per euro by June 30, after the currency exceeded its previous estimate of $1.52 by March 31.
``There are great concerns about additional unrealized losses on subprime loans, the size of which we can't reasonably forecast,'' said Hiroaki Hoshi, who oversees the equivalent of about $5.7 billion as a senior fund manager at Daiwa Asset Management Co. in Tokyo. ``Once these are realized, the dollar will fall,'' he said.
Slowdown Spreads
Banks, brokers and hedge funds may report $460 billion in credit losses, New York-based Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predicted last month. Government and private reports this week may show the U.S. lost jobs for a third month in March and manufacturing contracted at the fastest pace in five years, according to the median estimates of economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
The U.S. currency may strengthen as a slowdown in the world's largest economy spreads to other regions, weakening their currencies, according to London-based Barclays Capital, the fifth-biggest currency trader.
``Global growth is recoupling to U.S. growth and other central banks will have to start to play catch-up in terms of rate cuts,'' said David Forrester, a Singapore-based currency economist at Barclays, which forecasts the dollar to gain to $1.50 per euro in three months.
The dollar has gained 2.2 percent against the pound since the Bank of England cut rates by a half-percentage point on Dec. 6 to revive growth. The pound will weaken 0.2 percent to $1.98 by June 30, according to the survey of strategists. It closed yesterday at $1.9837.
`Bad News'
Japan's yen, which gained 3.6 percent versus the euro in the first quarter, will likely appreciate 2.5 percent to 153 per euro by June 30, the survey showed.
``There will still be most likely bad news that will come out on the global economy,'' said Stephen Jen, global head of currency research at Morgan Stanley in London. ``There's definitely a downside risk if the crisis morphs into something more extreme.''
The second-largest U.S. securities firm forecasts the dollar will appreciate to $1.55 per euro and weaken to 97 yen.
To contact the reporter on this story: Ron Harui in Singapore at rharui@bloomberg.net; Aaron Pan in Hong Kong at apan8@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: April 1, 2008 02:20 EDT
Some of your answers just posted on Bloomberg:
April 1 (Bloomberg) --.
The dollar will likely gain 1.5 percent to $1.55 per euro and remain little changed near 100 yen by the end of June, according to the median estimate of 40 analysts and economists surveyed by Bloomberg. At the start of 2008, they expected the dollar to strengthen to $1.48 per euro and reach 110 yen.
Deutsche Bank expects the dollar will weaken this quarter to $1.60 per euro, surpassing the $1.5903 reached March 17, the lowest since the single European currency began trading in 1999. A Bloomberg survey in January showed the bank predicted the dollar would rise to $1.43 by yesterday from $1.4589.
Royal Bank of Scotland in Edinburgh, the fourth-biggest foreign-exchange trader, forecasts the dollar will trade at $1.57 per euro by June 30, after the currency exceeded its previous estimate of $1.52 by March 31.
Barclays, which forecasts the dollar to gain to $1.50 per euro in three months.
The second-largest U.S. securities firm forecasts the dollar will appreciate to $1.55 per euro and weaken to 97 yen.
I agree Kauri,
I see more downside on the charts.
refer to attached.
I hear, anecdotally, (a nice way of saying rumoured), that the punters reckon that the worst has been revealed in the US of A, and anything major that does crop up will be promptly dealt with by Uncle Ben...
mmmm.....so if that's the worst of it for the money shufflers, maybe now they can concentrate on the real economy ie the housing bust, and the recession. So the market hasn't even started pricing in a recession yet? Short term it looks like the USD is the object of the flight to quality when compared to other currencies, so we play that game now.
It's just that there is a serious bout of confidence battering going on right now with the gold price (concerted capping at pivotal prices???) so could take time to recover. Numerous support off $890 tonight but with every rally it gets solidly beaten down. It all looks a bit artificial but trade it anyway?
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