Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[>Apocalypto<]

Not sure what you may mean by that. I am only trying to put a point of view across that I believe in an earnest manner. Unlike the Wall Street spin doctors feeding crap to the sheeple on which they unload.

That facts of US insolvency are readily available, no big deal, they have just been spending beyond their means for many years and the debt collector is finally screwing things down. And a hard look at out own ballance of payments and trade says we are in for some shocks too. Lucky to have our big resources pit to offset to some degree but the downturn in the US will impact on that for awhile too.

Yep, and I am long gold for the long term. But short term, who knows IMHO

What i mean is there are so many of u report experts on here now. You all know more about the US economy then the Americans. I know I am sounding harsh but I am getting sick of it. Maybe you should all go to the states and show em how to run the worlds largest economy.

So you know it's a bull market but u have no idea on what's doing on the short term. so how will u know when it's not a bull market. that is some crazy thing to say! the new bear market will start intraday then daily then weekly then monthly. so like i said in past post when will u know to get out? when the fundamentals change? by that time you would have lost more then 50% of your profits.

 

[wayneL]

What i mean is there are so many of u report experts on here now. You all know more about the US economy then the Americans. I know I am sounding harsh but I am getting sick of it. Maybe you should all go to the states and show em how to run the worlds largest economy.

Not a really helpful post.

Mate, there are different imperatives for the observer/trader to the political economists.

The political economists are interested in propping up the economy in order to retain power.

The trader/observer knows when an economy needs some bitter medicine the former don't want to face.

If you would read the writings of most neutral American economists, you would see they pretty much dovetail with the views expressed here.

If you have an opposing view, backed up by analysis and logic, lay it out instead of nitpicking.

 

[explod]

What i mean is there are so many of u report experts on here now. You all know more about the US economy then the Americans. I know I am sounding harsh but I am getting sick of it. Maybe you should all go to the states and show em how to run the worlds largest economy.

So you know it's a bull market but u have no idea on what's doing on the short term. so how will u know when it's not a bull market. that is some crazy thing to say! the new bear market will start intraday then daily then weekly then monthly. so like i said in past post when will u know to get out? when the fundamentals change? by that time you would have lost more then 50% of your profits.

No, it is not from what I am told, it is from Amercians who I have come to know that the information comes. I have read many learned authors in economics with degrees from Harvard Business School, others who have had more than thirty years of experience on Wall Street. Due to my concerns for the financial future for my family I have made it my business to study basic economics and fundamentals. The real information comes from many hard yards in learning.

You will note that most of my posts are backed by information from authentic sources.

And I am out of the general market, have been for 12 months, most of my investment is in physical bullion, GOLD on the ASX and some selected emerging ASX gold stocks.


But you need to do your own checking. Taking the lead from Bloomberg, the Newspapers and what bank analysts have to say is not good enough. There are many alternative overseas news sites that will paint the true picture.

For a start google the web page of "Financial Armageddon" the bloke behind this is an academic and experienced Wall Street dealer, he has been spot on. From his web site you can expand to many more.

Check the web page (Australian) of "The Privateer" he will give a free offer of a newsletter, it is heavy stuff, (print a hard copy) and work your way through it, you will see a new picture for yourself.

But in particular go back and work your way through this entire thread and also that of "Imminent and servere market correction"

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Not a really helpful post.

Mate, there are different imperatives for the observer/trader to the political economists.

The political economists are interested in propping up the economy in order to retain power.

The trader/observer knows when an economy needs some bitter medicine the former don't want to face.

If you would read the writings of most neutral American economists, you would see they pretty much dovetail with the views expressed here.

If you have an opposing view, backed up by analysis and logic, lay it out instead of nitpicking.

points taken Wayne,

But i am still quite fed up with all the so called US experts in here chucking around a couple reports and calling it fact. I am entitled to my own opinion, this is a public forum like you once told me.

Cheers

 

[explod]

points taken Wayne,

But i am still quite fed up with all the so called US experts in here chucking around a couple reports and calling it fact. I am entitled to my own opinion, this is a public forum like you once told me.

Cheers

Couple of reports, in the last four years I have read and reread no less than nine books from US authors on their economic situation.

 

[wayneL]

points taken Wayne,

But i am still quite fed up with all the so called US experts in here chucking around a couple reports and calling it fact. I am entitled to my own opinion, this is a public forum like you once told me.

Cheers

Of course, but you want your opinion yet seek to stifle someone else's. Do you see the duplicity in that? And you haven't actually expressed any opinion, apart from criticizing anothers.

Also, the forum exists at the largess of the domain owner. He has built a really good community here by having a few rules in place. Opinion is to be backed by some sort of analysis, otherwise we end up like HC.

Cheers

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Of course, but you want your opinion yet seek to stifle someone else's. Do you see the duplicity in that? And you haven't actually expressed any opinion, apart from criticizing anothers.

Also, the forum exists at the largess of the domain owner. He has built a really good community here by having a few rules in place. Opinion is to be backed by some sort of analysis, otherwise we end up like HC.

Cheers

My winge is over!

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Couple of reports, in the last four years I have read and reread no less than nine books from US authors on their economic situation.

Good for u explod. I hope you got a lot out of it.

What i would really like to know is if u have no idea about short term movements then how do u know if the market has turned or not? If u can gauge supply and demand in a way, ok like Jim Rogers can, what would be some examples of signs?

My report banter was just from my personal dislike for them.

Cheers

 

[wavepicker]

. Opinion is to be backed by some sort of analysis, otherwise we end up like HC.

Cheers

I don't see much analysis backing up opinions on this thread of late. Just cutting and pasting or repetition of other "gurus" opinions, to justify their own decisions and opinions. That's why this thread is of little interest to some posters. Just telling it how I see it.

Totally agree with Apocalyto's observation here

Cheers

 

[wayneL]

I don't see much analysis backing up opinions on this thread of late. Just cutting and pasting or repetition of other "gurus" opinions, to justify their own decisions and opinions. That's why this thread is of little interest to some posters. Just telling it how I see it.

Totally agree with Apocalyto's observation here

Cheers

Let's see some analysis from you then. If you disagree with the general view of those here, I am sure there are plenty who would like to hear it.

 

[wavepicker]

Let's see some analysis from you then. If you disagree with the general view of those here, I am sure there are plenty who would like to hear it.

My problem is not with the general view here Wayne. It's the lack of analysis behind their view.

Cutting and pasting the view of a guru from some other Gold site is hardly ones own analysis to back up their opinion.

For the record, my opinion is almost always backed up by analysis(right or wrong). ATM I have no opinion on Gold. My beef is about the lack of analysis behind most of the posts on Gold.

As such I can't be bothered any more

 

[explod]

I don't see much analysis backing up opinions on this thread of late. Just cutting and pasting or repetition of other "gurus" opinions, to justify their own decisions and opinions. That's why this thread is of little interest to some posters. Just telling it how I see it.

Totally agree with Apocalyto's observation here

Cheers

I think your observation a bit unfair, afterall ASF is first and formost a discussion, not high tech analysis. I am sure there are many,other threads of little interest to many as well.

We are not islands, it is from others and the interactions taking place that we learn, picking up bits from others (gurus) gives fresh input.

It is really a gold bugs thread after all and greed driven to a great extent. My Great Grandfather and two of his brothers came from England for the gold rush, so a bit in my blood too.

Most of the posters on this thread are sincerly trying to contribute something for mutual benefit. You have the background and expertise to do so too Wavepicker.

 

[wavepicker]

I think your observation a bit unfair, afterall ASF is first and formost a discussion, not high tech analysis. I am sure there are many,other threads of little interest to many as well.

We are not islands, it is from others and the interactions taking place that we learn, picking up bits from others (gurus) gives fresh input.

It is really a gold bugs thread after all and greed driven to a great extent. My Great Grandfather and two of his brothers came from England for the gold rush, so a bit in my blood too.

Most of the posters on this thread are sincerly trying to contribute something for mutual benefit. You have the background and expertise to do so too Wavepicker.

Wasn't just refering to TA explod. Some of the fundemental analysis posts from the likes of Ducati and Rederob used to make a few years back, to support their views was very informative,excellent, and original .

 

[explod]

Good for u explod. I hope you got a lot out of it.

What i would really like to know is if u have no idea about short term movements then how do u know if the market has turned or not? If u can gauge supply and demand in a way, ok like Jim Rogers can, what would be some examples of signs?

My report banter was just from my personal dislike for them.

Cheers

That is not correct, I use charting analysis to get in and out of trades and can see some things in the short term. In my view gold is very different, it is not just driven by market sentiment or easily examined fundamentals. Gold is an international (whole world) item so is pushed around by a multitude of factors. At the moment we can see a general trend which is strong and has been for 6 years now. A complete change of such a trend will be reasonably clear to read by those following closely.

A clear sign to me would be a proper turn around in the US economy and a commensurate rise in the value of the US dollar. Both of which look unlikely at the moment. Short term with gold, as I said before, too much in it to tell and for me not necessary anyway.

Cheers.

 

[cuttlefish]

Given the choice of a tide chart or a wave bouy I'd take the tide chart. But I'd prefer both.

In the long term the high water mark and the low water mark move in line with the fundamentals that drive the markets. In the short term the set waves and intermediate waves create distortions that make it difficult to pick the exact top and bottom of the tide and can confuse the observer as to the actual direction of the underlying tide.

Figure out what the moon is doing and you will prevail in the longer term, but only if you have positioned yourself in such a way as to ride out and manage the shorter term fluctuations. Some focus on making mileage out of the short term. Some are prepared to sacrifice some of the short term to try to make mileage out of the longer term.

Owning gold has never been a particularly bad idea though its not always been a great idea either. Owning paper currencies has frequently been a very bad idea. Owning property has usually been a good idea but has occasionally been a catastrophically bad idea - when governments change property law (e.g. communism preempting individual property rights) - or entire systems of governments change or are overthrown (the numerous occupations and invasions over history).

If I had to bet which was more likely to be around in 2000 years - the social acceptance of gold as a valuable good, vs, the social acceptance of the USD as a valuable good (and the US nation even existing), I know which one I'd back.

The US does have a lot of debt, this debt has expanded massively and exponentially since the abolition of the gold standard by Nixon. It seems untenable that this can continue forever unabated.

That doesn't mean it won't continue for many years to come.

But recently, with subprime, the level of malinvestment of this enormous debt seems to be at an extreme point. And at the same time, the questions being raised about the regulation of debt in general mean that it might be prudent to have a proportion of investments in an instrument that is immutable, portable and that falls outside of governments, currency and counterparty risk.

 

[rederob]

Wasn't just refering to TA explod. Some of the fundemental analysis posts from the likes of Ducati and Rederob used to make a few years back, to support their views was very informative,excellent, and original .

There are two keys:
First, the direction.
Second, that you picked it.
Investing in the debate might be intellectually stimulating, but investing money is really what it's about.
As I invest long term, the short term direction of the market is not at issue.
I have pared my portfolio to 30 equities and 10 have some exposure to gold (3 are pure gold plays).
Recent years have been more conducive to gold increasing in price than vice versa.
Much is due to gold being priced in USD terms and, for the many reasons cut and pasted into this thread, there is general acceptance that the US economy is not in good shape.
Keeping this post brief, if you feel the US economy is levelling off and about to head firmly north again, get out of gold now (or short it to the bejeebers).
I personally can't see the US market back on an even keel within 12 months, perhaps 2 years.
But the US market is just one of dozens of gold price drivers, so even when the US economy is back on its feet, it doesn't mean you dump gold. It does mean you should seriously evaluate why you still hold it.
Wavepicker and I do not agree on a number of market trends, and arguing the toss solves nothing.
Give it time.

 

[MRC & Co]

If I had to bet which was more likely to be around in 2000 years - the social acceptance of gold as a valuable good, vs, the social acceptance of the USD as a valuable good (and the US nation even existing), I know which one I'd back.

Be very careful of this.

Telling someone invested through a large period of the 1900s of the bullish bias of the stockmarket and average compounded returns would not have helped, considering over numerous decades it barely moved (non-inclusive of dividends).

Your investment life will be very short in comparison to historical trends and you could get caught in a rut period (perhaps now for those in stocks "waiting" for them to climb back up).

Do you have a positive expectancy for your investments explod? :

Explod is following a long-term fundamental trend, if he sees fundamentals change, I am sure he will get out. Until then, I dont see T/A dictating the long-term trend of gold so there is no need to understand the movements of the short-term. Like global indices will not recover over the long-term until profits begin to rise again and stability is seen, gold will not dramatically fall until inflation and fears (and their respective effects on USD, IRP, PPP) have subsided. At least on a fundamental basis

Pretty simple, correct me if Im wrong.

 

[wavepicker]

There are two keys:
First, the direction.
Second, that you picked it.
Investing in the debate might be intellectually stimulating, but investing money is really what it's about.
As I invest long term, the short term direction of the market is not at issue.
I have pared my portfolio to 30 equities and 10 have some exposure to gold (3 are pure gold plays).
Recent years have been more conducive to gold increasing in price than vice versa.
Much is due to gold being priced in USD terms and, for the many reasons cut and pasted into this thread, there is general acceptance that the US economy is not in good shape.
Keeping this post brief, if you feel the US economy is levelling off and about to head firmly north again, get out of gold now (or short it to the bejeebers).
I personally can't see the US market back on an even keel within 12 months, perhaps 2 years.
But the US market is just one of dozens of gold price drivers, so even when the US economy is back on its feet, it doesn't mean you dump gold. It does mean you should seriously evaluate why you still hold it.
Wavepicker and I do not agree on a number of market trends, and arguing the toss solves nothing.
Give it time.

Rederob, my comments were not in refernece to Gold, the US economy or the USD. Although I disagree with you on all the counts you mentioned except that on the US economy, my point was that at least you argue your points much more cosntructively than what I have seen here. Not just a couple of cheap comments thrown in hereor there.

Just getting back to the subject of Gold and the USD, you have no idea what I am all about, how I trade. In the months and years ahead you will see that my remarks will be proven correct and as such you will have to revisist your analysis. BTW I am, short Gold for the short term at least.

Good Trading.

 

[wayneL]

Rederob, my comments were not in refernece to Gold, the US economy or the USD. Although I disagree with you on all the counts you mentioned except that on the US economy, my point was that at least you argue your points much more cosntructively than what I have seen here. Not just a couple of cheap comments thrown in hereor there.

Just getting back to the subject of Gold and the USD, you have no idea what I am all about, how I trade. In the months and years ahead you will see that my remarks will be proven correct and as such you will have to revisist your analysis. BTW I am, short Gold for the short term at least.

Good Trading.

Speaking of cheap comments, we've seen nothing from you recently. No analysis, opinion of any discernible flavour, just cheap shots. You've added nothing recently but acrimony.

I suggest a change of style.

 

[Whiskers]

Well, looks like gold has lost it's shine for awhile.

I suspect that because the US is pulling out all stops to kill the credit crisis off pretty quickly, it will not revisit 1000 again for a at least a few months, probably late in the year when the markets have settled and supply (or lack of) becomes an issue.

Some had mentioned silver as their signal 'canary'. I reckon the ultimate precious metal, Rhodium was the canary leading the way lately and wouldn't be surprised if it leads another dip down.