Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[wavepicker]

Consequently, I have advocated for awhile that the USD will strengthen a bit in the near future and that equates to some easing in demand for gold.

Interesting you say that, Wavepicker is of the same opinion but there dose not seem to be a reason put forward as to why?

Can you give a take on this rationale?

Refer to the following post I made a while ago:-

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=274158&postcount=3716

 

[Trembling Hand]

There goes $900

 

[wavepicker]

There goes $900

Make that 889!!!! That should give the bulls something to think about

 

[josjes]

Make that 889!!!! That should give the bulls something to think about

Bring it on $850 I will gladly scoop in for the long term.

 

[ithatheekret]

Make that 889!!!! That should give the bulls something to think about

Yep , 912 failure off a buck again , so I covered in the 888s .

888 retest should be on the cards too .


I got my days beef jerky , must be time for bear steaks now

 

[Kauri]

Gold/$US index is always interesting... I thunk..
Cheers
...........Kauri

 

[explod]

Make that 889!!!! That should give the bulls something to think about

Not too much to think about. Current price of gold is still $200 an ounce above where it was 12 months ago. The previous correction in 06 was 50% Funny Wavepicker, you only seem to emerge when you have a "told you so" story to tell. Rarely anything constructive and useful to add to the debate.

You have never given a satisfactory explanation of why and when the US$ is going to recover. Would be good to hear that.

The lull in trading from the Asian close to European open often precedes a recovery in the gold price. But I do not claim to know, just something that happens more often than not.

 

[wavepicker]

Not too much to think about. Current price of gold is still $200 an ounce above where it was 12 months ago. The previous correction in 06 was 50% Funny Wavepicker, you only seem to emerge when you have a "told you so" story to tell.

Now your making things up explod. That's simply not true or fair, or did you not read my last post to you.

I understand your emotion as Gold is falling back, I have been there too. I am still long term bullish like you and consider this a buying opportunity in the months ahead.

 

[chops_a_must]

You have never given a satisfactory explanation of why and when the US$ is going to recover. Would be good to hear that.

The lull in trading from the Asian close to European open often precedes a recovery in the gold price. But I do not claim to know, just something that happens more often than not.

I posted some time back that if all these debts in USD were being called in, it would have to be bullish for the dollar. If those debts are being converted into US treasuries, that's probably even more bullish. I don't know how those things work, but that's my hunch.

850 looks a dead certainty.

I think oil looks like it could break down about 10% or so, and that's another weight.

 

[explod]

I posted some time back that if all these debts in USD were being called in, it would have to be bullish for the dollar. If those debts are being converted into US treasuries, that's probably even more bullish. I don't know how those things work, but that's my hunch.

850 looks a dead certainty.

I think oil looks like it could break down about 10% or so, and that's another weight.

Maybe, but if you look back to January's consolidation, should have fairly solid support at 885.

Not sure myself about the dollar, others may know. All I can go by is that the $US index downtrend is till intact. And though it is up .4 of a % tonight it is all bad for US treasuries. That is the reason why I would like Wavepickers take on it. From what he posts here of course it gives the perception that he may not know either.

At least Chops, you have offered something to ponder.

cheers

 

[explod]

Now your making things up explod. That's simply not true or fair, or did you not read my last post to you.

I understand your emotion as Gold is falling back, I have been there too. I am still long term bullish like you and consider this a buying opportunity in the months ahead.

If you are referring to our pm's I do not recall such an explanation. I in fact do not have one and it has not been of concern , only the trend.

As far as the gold price drop is concerned it in no way is of a concern, the correction is healthy and has been the normal course throughout the bullrun from 2001.

However I am most interested in the views of the $US dollar index direction as this does have a huge impact on the gold price.

From my take the repatriation of US dollars will be merely a passing through to other assets that have tangible value, one of which will be gold.

 

[wavepicker]

I would like Wavepickers take on it. From what he posts here of course it gives the perception that he may not know either.

cheers

Explod, Fundementally I have no absolutely reasons either. However technically a descent correction has been on the cards for a while. I had no idea when, but the chart I posted in this thread a week or so ago gave resonable evidence that it was in the wind:

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=274158&postcount=3716

However I don't seem to have had any response re these observation made by Apocalypto and myself. Instead we are attacked because we make some comments very true with regard to this thread but against the maisntreem thinking of most posters.

Instead all that Wayne L and others are hellbent on doing is pulling my posts, which contained no offensive language levelled against anyone, but rather in self defense against comments made against me.

It's seems though for some it's a matter of "Do not as I do, but as I say".

 

[wayneL]

Wavepicker,

I didn't pull your post, someone else did... deservedly so I might add.

If you'd like to stick to analysis, that would be good. Please review the code of conduct.

 

[Kauri]

I hear, anecdotally, (a nice way of saying rumoured), that the punters reckon that the worst has been revealed in the US of A, and anything major that does crop up will be promptly dealt with by Uncle Ben, whilst Eurozone is seen still carrying a lot of trouble yet to surface (apart hopefully from uberbank which should have cleaned the decks today with the new pilot at the helm). Hence a steady inflow into the $US.. also, apart from the UK, the eurozone CB don't seem too keen on bailing, leaving the likes of uberbank to go to market. The inflows this year into the US, posted previously, certainly seem to back that up. As I am not a fundementalists fundement I have no idea, but it sounds good..
Gold with all of the coupling and decoupling apparently going on, enough to make Casanovas eyes water, seems to mirror the $US.. so does the $ lead gold, or gold lead the dollar, is it co-incidental, or is it.... ??
What are the lease rates at today, what affect can we expect from them??
Is the $ still seen ultimately as a safe haven currency??
Are the PPP/PPT still actively selling or are they now taking a well earned breather??
What will happen if the Indians decide living in sin is better than getting married??
Pondering
..............Kauri

 

[explod]

I hear, anecdotally, (a nice way of saying rumoured), that the punters reckon that the worst has been revealed in the US of A, and anything major that does crop up will be promptly dealt with by Uncle Ben, whilst Eurozone is seen still carrying a lot of trouble yet to surface (apart hopefully from uberbank which should have cleaned the decks today with the new pilot at the helm). Hence a steady inflow into the $US.. also, apart from the UK, the eurozone CB don't seem too keen on bailing, leaving the likes of uberbank to go to market. The inflows this year into the US, posted previously, certainly seem to back that up. As I am not a fundementalists fundement I have no idea, but it sounds good..
Gold with all of the coupling and decoupling apparently going on, enough to make Casanovas eyes water, seems to mirror the $US.. so does the $ lead gold, or gold lead the dollar, is it co-incidental, or is it.... ??
What are the lease rates at today, what affect can we expect from them??
Is the $ still seen ultimately as a safe haven currency??
Are the PPP/PPT still actively selling or are they now taking a well earned breather??
What will happen if the Indians decide living in sin is better than getting married??
Pondering
..............Kauri

Some of your answers just posted on Bloomberg:

Dollar Tumble Wrecks Forecasts; Deutsche Bank Lowers (Update2)

By Ron Harui and Aaron Pan

April 1 (Bloomberg) -- Dollar bulls are in retreat after the currency's biggest quarterly decline against the euro since 2004 and the largest slump in almost a decade versus the yen.

The dollar will likely gain 1.5 percent to $1.55 per euro and remain little changed near 100 yen by the end of June, according to the median estimate of 40 analysts and economists surveyed by Bloomberg. At the start of 2008, they expected the dollar to strengthen to $1.48 per euro and reach 110 yen.

Deutsche Bank AG, the world's largest foreign-exchange trader, and Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc cut their dollar estimates last month as global credit market losses climbed above $200 billion and reports signaled the U.S. economy may be shrinking. Private foreign investors sold a net $38.2 billion in U.S. securities in January, the most since September, the Treasury Department said March 17.

``We now view the U.S. economy as having slipped into recession while the rest of the world slows more modestly,'' said John Horner, a currency strategist in Sydney for Frankfurt- based Deutsche Bank. That scenario ``argues for further dollar weakness,'' he said.

U.S. growth likely fell to 0.2 percent last quarter, compared with 0.6 percent in the final three months of 2007, according to the median forecast of 85 economists and strategists surveyed by Bloomberg.

Relative Rates

The greenback tumbled 7.6 percent against the euro last quarter to $1.5788. It slid 10.8 percent to 99.69 yen, the most since falling the same amount in the third quarter of 1999, as a decline in stocks from New York to Tokyo and credit market losses led investors to sell high-yielding assets funded with low-interest loans in Japan. The dollar traded at $1.5727 per euro and 99.74 yen at 7:09 a.m. in London.

The Bank of Japan's benchmark rate is 0.5 percent, compared with 2.25 percent in the U.S. and 4 percent for the European Central Bank. The rate in Switzerland, another source of funds for so-called carry trades, is 2.75 percent.

``We hold a bearish dollar outlook,'' said Thanos Papasavvas, London-based head of currency management at Investec Asset Management. ``It's impossible to forecast where the bottom is going to be.''

Investec, which manages the equivalent of $65 billion, decided on March 28 to keep betting against the dollar, Papasavvas said.

The dollar fell last quarter against the 16 most actively- traded currencies except the Canadian dollar, South Korean won and South African rand. It declined the most against the Swiss franc, depreciating 12.4 percent, and gained 2.7 percent versus Canada's currency, 5.9 percent against the won, 17.9 percent to the rand. It was little changed per pound.

Record Low

Deutsche Bank expects the dollar will weaken this quarter to $1.60 per euro, surpassing the $1.5903 reached March 17, the lowest since the single European currency began trading in 1999. A Bloomberg survey in January showed the bank predicted the dollar would rise to $1.43 by yesterday from $1.4589.

Royal Bank of Scotland in Edinburgh, the fourth-biggest foreign-exchange trader, forecasts the dollar will trade at $1.57 per euro by June 30, after the currency exceeded its previous estimate of $1.52 by March 31.

``There are great concerns about additional unrealized losses on subprime loans, the size of which we can't reasonably forecast,'' said Hiroaki Hoshi, who oversees the equivalent of about $5.7 billion as a senior fund manager at Daiwa Asset Management Co. in Tokyo. ``Once these are realized, the dollar will fall,'' he said.

Slowdown Spreads

Banks, brokers and hedge funds may report $460 billion in credit losses, New York-based Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predicted last month. Government and private reports this week may show the U.S. lost jobs for a third month in March and manufacturing contracted at the fastest pace in five years, according to the median estimates of economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

The U.S. currency may strengthen as a slowdown in the world's largest economy spreads to other regions, weakening their currencies, according to London-based Barclays Capital, the fifth-biggest currency trader.

``Global growth is recoupling to U.S. growth and other central banks will have to start to play catch-up in terms of rate cuts,'' said David Forrester, a Singapore-based currency economist at Barclays, which forecasts the dollar to gain to $1.50 per euro in three months.

The dollar has gained 2.2 percent against the pound since the Bank of England cut rates by a half-percentage point on Dec. 6 to revive growth. The pound will weaken 0.2 percent to $1.98 by June 30, according to the survey of strategists. It closed yesterday at $1.9837.

`Bad News'

Japan's yen, which gained 3.6 percent versus the euro in the first quarter, will likely appreciate 2.5 percent to 153 per euro by June 30, the survey showed.

``There will still be most likely bad news that will come out on the global economy,'' said Stephen Jen, global head of currency research at Morgan Stanley in London. ``There's definitely a downside risk if the crisis morphs into something more extreme.''

The second-largest U.S. securities firm forecasts the dollar will appreciate to $1.55 per euro and weaken to 97 yen.

To contact the reporter on this story: Ron Harui in Singapore at rharui@bloomberg.net; Aaron Pan in Hong Kong at apan8@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: April 1, 2008 02:20 EDT

 

[Kauri]

Some of your answers just posted on Bloomberg:

April 1 (Bloomberg) --.

The dollar will likely gain 1.5 percent to $1.55 per euro and remain little changed near 100 yen by the end of June, according to the median estimate of 40 analysts and economists surveyed by Bloomberg. At the start of 2008, they expected the dollar to strengthen to $1.48 per euro and reach 110 yen.

Deutsche Bank expects the dollar will weaken this quarter to $1.60 per euro, surpassing the $1.5903 reached March 17, the lowest since the single European currency began trading in 1999. A Bloomberg survey in January showed the bank predicted the dollar would rise to $1.43 by yesterday from $1.4589.

Royal Bank of Scotland in Edinburgh, the fourth-biggest foreign-exchange trader, forecasts the dollar will trade at $1.57 per euro by June 30, after the currency exceeded its previous estimate of $1.52 by March 31.

Barclays, which forecasts the dollar to gain to $1.50 per euro in three months.

The second-largest U.S. securities firm forecasts the dollar will appreciate to $1.55 per euro and weaken to 97 yen.

an answer... looks more like Sudoku to me.. just a whole heap of educated guesses correcting thier previously incorrect geesses

Incidentally, the Dow has crashed roughly 20% from its highs to its recent lows, and we all know of the doom, gloom, and imminent implosion that this indicates the US faces, although the US as yet is doing a Carey in facing up to it.
Gold has ambled gently down 14% from high to low, and yet this is only a to be expected correction... are we...mmm??
Slowing global growth will mean softer oil, commodity, and metals prices, and for all the hype surrounding gold, it is a commodity.. is it immune...

or not??
Cheers
.........Kauri

 

[>Apocalypto<]

I agree Kauri,

I see more downside on the charts.

refer to attached.

 

[explod]

I agree Kauri,

I see more downside on the charts.

refer to attached.

Cannot disagree but do think that the support a little below the current may hold.

The difference to 05 is the increased volatility. This correction has been very swift and such momentum can gain a life of its own sometimes.

A great buying opportunity in my view.

Though there may not seem much in the Bloomberg report is is a very gloomy one for them and is why I took note and posted.

The next few days will be interesting indeed and if it plays out as you say I think the 750 or so mark could come quickly.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

I hear, anecdotally, (a nice way of saying rumoured), that the punters reckon that the worst has been revealed in the US of A, and anything major that does crop up will be promptly dealt with by Uncle Ben...

mmmm.....so if that's the worst of it for the money shufflers, maybe now they can concentrate on the real economy ie the housing bust, and the recession. So the market hasn't even started pricing in a recession yet? Short term it looks like the USD is the object of the flight to quality when compared to other currencies, so we play that game now .

It's just that there is a serious bout of confidence battering going on right now with the gold price (concerted capping at pivotal prices???) so could take time to recover. Numerous support off $890 tonight but with every rally it gets solidly beaten down. It all looks a bit artificial but trade it anyway?

 

[Kauri]

mmmm.....so if that's the worst of it for the money shufflers, maybe now they can concentrate on the real economy ie the housing bust, and the recession. So the market hasn't even started pricing in a recession yet? Short term it looks like the USD is the object of the flight to quality when compared to other currencies, so we play that game now .

It's just that there is a serious bout of confidence battering going on right now with the gold price (concerted capping at pivotal prices???) so could take time to recover. Numerous support off $890 tonight but with every rally it gets solidly beaten down. It all looks a bit artificial but trade it anyway?

Not necessarily the worst of it for the money shufflers, my point is that a lot of the US trouble has been outed, not all, but a lot.. how much of the rest of the worlds money shufflers have fronted up with their hits?? uberbank came out with $19 Bln today for the Qtr.. do you think they are orphans in Eurozone?? have the German, Dutch, Scandinavian etc.. banks all fronted up with big hits yet, are they yet to come.. do you know how close Iceland is to melting??? Armchair critics knock Uncle Ben but at least he is in there fighting, now being almost pro-active, he won't stop the recession but he is staving off a total meltdown. The Eurozone hasn't even started yet... so even though the US is a basket case, by taking on the problems it is ahead of the EZ. and that possibly means that, as worthless as there currency may be, it will possibly be less worthless than the Euro soon???
Has the market started pricing in a recession yet... how to answer that gem with a straight face.. ..
Artificial, capping, PPT,leasing rates, coupling-decoupling-derailing,indian wedding season.... et al... strange how these things only crop up when the POG retraces???

Have attached a chart of $US-inverted.. vs Gold.. vs DOW... coupled up quite a rake.. a picture is worth a 1000 wagons..

Cheers
.........Kauri