Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[Kauri]

Does anyone know of a good free web site that offers the ability to chart the POG, AUD and USD on the one chart? I wouldn’t mind seeing how it looks for the last 6 months. Thanks.

Not sure if this is what you are after... POG vs the AUDUSD swap...
Cheers
.........Kauri

 

[Kauri]

Rooters... Anglo-Gold sees all its S.African gold mines back in full production by the end of next week.
Cheers
............Kauri

 

[Stormin_Norman]

if you are looking to predict the AUD/USD rate, id suggest trying a commodity bundle index rather then just gold.

 

[Kauri]

Eurosystem central banks continue to pare gold reserves with gold reserves declining by EUR51 mln the week of January 25th due to sales from one bank. Gold reserves have now declined for 167 out of the last 173 weeks.
ECB reserves have dropped EUR 800 mln to EUR151.9 bln with reserves down EUR1.9 bln since year-end revaluation.

 

[Stormin_Norman]

is gold overpriced seeing its at 'all time highs'?

perhaps. or perhaps, when accounting for inflation its only at about 50% of the real all time high.

 

[explod]

is gold overpriced seeing its at 'all time highs'?

perhaps. or perhaps, when accounting for inflation its only at about 50% of the real all time high.

The idea of golds true inflation adjusted value has been discussed and answered many times on this thread. Anyone at all interested in gold or gold stocks as an investement should read there way through this most valuable information.

The peak of gold in 1980 was about US$850 and ounce. If you think about what an item cost back then and use the multiple on gold we have todays potential peak.

A house cost about $75,000 back then. Lets say it is an average of $300,000 now, that's 4 times, so a gold price jump to more than US$3,000 per ounce is most reasonable.

There are other factors which say that it may even be very much more due to golds use as a store of wealth and a hedge against currency devaluation. The reasons for this are lengthy and important and as I said are contained as a beginning on this subject within this thread.

It is worth feeding the subject "gold as a store of wealth" into Google also.

 

[explod]

is gold overpriced seeing its at 'all time highs'?

perhaps. or perhaps, when accounting for inflation its only at about 50% of the real all time high.

And here another view today

National Bank makes massive call on gold
Posted: January 29, 2008, 12:46 PM by Peter Koven
Mining
When you hear calls for US$1,500 gold within 12 to 18 months, you assume they're coming from the usual gold bugs. They do that kind of thing all the time. But in this case, it's coming from a much more objective source: National Bank Financial.

Chief economist Clément Gignac, who has been bearish on the U.S. economy for ages, lays out five reasons why gold is making a comeback as an investment haven and should reach his lofty US$1,500 an ounce target: financial instability, massive injections of liquidity and a return to negative interest rates, the declining value and roll of the U.S. dollar, swelling U.S. budget deficits and inflation expectations, and increased financial demand for gold as a distinct asset class.

None of these factors will come as a shock to anyone, but Mr. Gignac figures they will combine to keep the upside pressure on bullion well into the future.


"We think gold has attractive potential for appreciation and, especially, as a tool for medium-term portfolio diversification via gold stocks or gold ETFs," he wrote in a note to clients. "The current price of crude oil, around US$90 a barrel, is about the same in constant dollars as the late-1970s high. Our new gold target of US$1,500 an ounce is still far from the early-1980s high of US$2,200 in constant dollars."


Peter Koven



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[end quote]

 

[Stormin_Norman]

also take a look at the economic conditions in the late 70s and compare these to the current conditions.

 

[Temjin]

GATA GOLD RALLY COMING!

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1201590240.php

I also received an email recently...

Go GATA; Go Gold!

Go Terbo!

Silver Stock Report

by Jason Hommel, January 29, 2008


My gut tells me that the gold price has a good chance to go up by more than $25 in one day on Friday, February 1st, and again, another $25 in one day on Monday, February 4th, because a certain ad will come out in a Washington paper on Thursday, this week.

Why do I make such a bold statement? Because it's not that bold when you know what GATA knows.

Also, Peter Degraaf is saying something similar:
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1201590240.php

"For the next few weeks or months, analysts will likely refer to the latest rise in the gold price, which started today, as the GATA RALLY."

GATA has good information about gold, that, when shared, makes the gold price move up!

Back in 2005, after GATA's Gold Rush 21 conference informed some 100 key people about gold, the gold price was at about $430/oz. and moved up more than $10/day for the next two days, and then launched a nearly parabolic rally that only stopped at $720/oz. in May, 2006.

GATA's conference presenters were the wisest and most informed gold analysts in the world.

Back then, there was what they called the "$6 rule" in place, where the gold price managers would come out and sell a lot of gold if ever gold was up $6 in one day, because "price action makes market commentary", and so they were trying to cap any excitement in gold. This was one bit of information presented at the conference at goldrush21.com.

One man who attended GATA's show was Andrey Bykov, the personal economic advisor to Russian President Vladimir Putin. I met this man. I was at the show. He said it was the best conference he had attended in his life. That show likely helped Russia to act, to buy gold.

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Murphy/aug122005.html

People buy gold when they know what is going on. When they realize the true supply/demand picture, that the central banks of the world are running out of gold after having engaged in leasing and selling their gold for years that has had a tendency to cap the price, making gold way too cheap, then people buy gold.

On Thursday, GATA will run a full page ad in the Wall Street Journal at a cost of $264,400. This ad will have to be "answered" by the gold establishment Wall Street banks, just like I had to answer Jessica Cross yesterday. But what can they say? Who will answer and how? What will they do, bring out Jessica Cross again to spew some nonsense?

If the ad is not enough to spill the beans on the gold market, then GATA's conference in April, probably will.

The circulation of the Wall Street Journal is more than 2,000,000.
My circulation is about 68,000.
GATA's email list is maybe about 5000 to 10,000.
See GATA.org

See GoldRush21.com
--You can order a DVD of the Historic GATA gold conference for $20.
A preview of GATA's 2 meg pdf file ad:
http://www.gata.org/files/GATA-AD-01-14-2008.pdf
http://www.silverstockreport.com/GATA/GATA-AD-01-14-2008.pdf <--faster download

Disclaimer: I do not know the future. I cannot predict what will happen on Friday. And I certainly would never bet, nor gamble, nor engage in any futures contracts. But I would, and I have, bought real, physical, rare silver and gold in anticipation and expectation of all that I do know.

So who thinks this coming advertisment will bring some sort of influence on the gold price over the next few days?

Personally, I will listen to the disclaimer and not bet on the future using contracts. May plan to risk additional 2% of my portfolio and wait and see what happens.

 

[CamKawa]

I'm wondering what peoples thoughts are on a rate cut. If it's only 25 points do think the POG will drop given that the POG by in large risen in the lead up to tonight’s announcement?

Where did this additional rate cut rumour come from? Did Ben say something or is it just a rumour started by some fund manager?

 

[explod]

Re: GATA GOLD RALLY COMING!

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1201590240.php

I also received an email recently...



So who thinks this coming advertisment will bring some sort of influence on the gold price over the next few days?

Personally, I will listen to the disclaimer and not bet on the future using contracts. May plan to risk additional 2% of my portfolio and wait and see what happens.

Noticed some other pundits also mention the probability of GATA going to the press and that it may be positive.

Jason Hommel of course is one of the greatest rampers for his own cause I have ever read. Silver is his go.

Yep the conference does attract attention, and I think (Pierre Lisonde??spelling) ex CEO of Newmont made statements at the last conference that was both effective on the gold price and propheticly correct.

Probably not hard to make a prediction at the moment because the debasement of the US dollar due to their dropping interest rates will take gold up a great deal in the coming months anyway.

 

[ithatheekret]

LGL $3.81 saw a 84 earlier , I was putting an order in and the broker was muttering something about their output , but only bits sunk in , decided to sell the news , probably a mistake , but too late now . the rest are sitting there at $3.82 if anyone wants them .

 

[ithatheekret]

Couldn't convince anyone huh ........ meanies . :

gone at I think it was the same as opening price $3.77 .


I like the stock , but this feels so much like a traders market still . Even with perfect fundamental credentials backing top grade stocks up .

 

[CamKawa]

Couldn't convince anyone huh ........ meanies . :

gone at I think it was the same as opening price $3.77 .


I like the stock , but this feels so much like a traders market still . Even with perfect fundamental credentials backing top grade stocks up .

I spent the better part of the day twiddling my thumbs wondering what sort of mood Ben is going to be in tonight.

 

[barrett]

I'm wondering what peoples thoughts are on a rate cut. If it's only 25 points do think the POG will drop given that the POG by in large risen in the lead up to tonight’s announcement?

Where did this additional rate cut rumour come from? Did Ben say something or is it just a rumour started by some fund manager?

from Bloomberg Jan29th,
"Traders see an 86 percent chance of Fed rate cut to 3 percent tomorrow, futures on the Chicago Board of Trade show. Policy makers, who lowered the target rate for overnight loans between banks by three-quarters of a percentage point on Jan. 22, begin their two-day meeting today. "

Not sure exactly how the markets came to be so certain of 0.5, but I doubt the Fed will want to disappoint..

Some good info has been posted here lately, and I hope GATA's action gets some media exposure. Potentially a bottom forming on the chart this last day.. I'm nearly as long as I can get on gold, hopefully the Fed delivering the goods tomorrow night will spice up the action a bit

Just came across this example of competitive currency devaluation, Philippines central bank cutting rates 50bp .. "..to temper the peso's strengthening against the dollar". I wouldn't be surprised if there's a round robin of similar cuts around the world this next month or so.. no-one wants a strong currency.. more fuel on the fire for gold:
http://business.inquirer.net/money/...15391/BSP-may-cut-rates-by-50-bps-on-Thursday

 

[barrett]

Hi what about Australia?

thx

MS

RBA core CPI now supposedly 3.6%, headline only 3%.. it seems a bit lowballed to me. I'd put my own cost of living increase at more like 6%pa at a guess (anyone know of a useful private sector estimate.. or worked out their own CPI?).. so _my guess_ is the net yield on the $A is about 1%, slightly better than most other fiats..

$A & other marginally positive yielding fiats are still no competition for gold at the moment IMO, given the uncertain economic outlook and falling $US.. for instance if the $A were bid much over parity with $US, RBA would be more likely to ease, reducing demand.. similar for some other higher yielding fiats. A higher exchange rate for gold on the other hand causes increased demand for it in the form of buying pressure from investors and central banks, so from that perspective gold seems the safer of the currency plays
.. frequent mood swings aside..

Gold's gains against the $A might be less than against some other fiats, but I reckon they will still be huge over time thanks to global demand..
cheers

 

[CamKawa]

from Bloomberg Jan29th,
"Traders see an 86 percent chance of Fed rate cut to 3 percent tomorrow, futures on the Chicago Board of Trade show. Policy makers, who lowered the target rate for overnight loans between banks by three-quarters of a percentage point on Jan. 22, begin their two-day meeting today. "

Not sure exactly how the markets came to be so certain of 0.5, but I doubt the Fed will want to disappoint..

So really there's nothing stopping Ben from coming out tonight waving to the crowd and then shuffling back in leaving rates unchanged. I was surprised to hear that rates would drop again shortly after the 75 point announcement given the lag any change has to take effect.

I don’t think the Fed should be dictated to by the mood of a fickle market. If he caves into the markets wishes where is that going to leave him? Looking weak I'd say. Look at Stevo here at our end, he raised rates in the middle of a federal election campaign - there's a man with spine.

 

[Real1ty]

So really there's nothing stopping Ben from coming out tonight waving to the crowd and then shuffling back in leaving rates unchanged. I was surprised to hear that rates would drop again shortly after the 75 point announcement given the lag any change has to take effect.

I don’t think the Fed should be dictated to by the mood of a fickle market. If he caves into the markets wishes where is that going to leave him? Looking weak I'd say. Look at Stevo here at our end, he raised rates in the middle of a federal election campaign - there's a man with spine.

Ben already has very little credibility and is seen by the majority of being keen to pander to the banks and hedge funds.

If you read his speeches, originally they were about inflation where as lately they have contained references to risks to growth etc.

Whether they should actually be cutting rates, is a completely different issue, but the consensus is that they will continue to do so, and probably destroy the $, or what's left of it in the process.

 

[ithatheekret]

test

mucking about with file conversions , with little luck , but I thought I'd put this up for some to gauge , my bet it went much further but I'm a tad busy getting confused by a machine .

 

[barrett]

test

mucking about with file conversions , with little luck , but I thought I'd put this up for some to gauge , my bet it went much further but I'm a tad busy getting confused by a machine .

Nice work! Any more buy signals coming in, or sell signals (if you're trading short term swings?)