Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[ithatheekret]

One for the bugs and one I bet you haven't picked up on :

Take careful note of the Swissies range , then compare it to POG .( 2 years will do , try 12mths also )

You will note that POG outperforms the Swissie and this is not only rare , but an extremely bullish outlook on gold looking forward , corrections will be part of the moves , but I am now firmly a GOLD BULL .

Please look at the charts and overlay the prices , it will amaze you and then show it to those who label you a heretic , dillusional or off with the fairies for being a staunch bug . Today heralds a new beginning for gold .

I can add further to this on a few other currencies of note , but the Swissie alone on this last data for POG has blown it out of the squares parameters .
This is a rare semaphore , like a comet that comes around every millenium .

 

[barrett]

Take careful note of the Swissies range , then compare it to POG .( 2 years will do , try 12mths also )

Sounds exciting but not sure exactly what to look for in the charts here.. you're saying compare USDCHF and XAUUSD, right?

 

[explod]

One for the bugs and one I bet you haven't picked up on :

Take careful note of the Swissies range , then compare it to POG .( 2 years will do , try 12mths also )

You will note that POG outperforms the Swissie and this is not only rare , but an extremely bullish outlook on gold looking forward , corrections will be part of the moves , but I am now firmly a GOLD BULL .

Please look at the charts and overlay the prices , it will amaze you and then show it to those who label you a heretic , dillusional or off with the fairies for being a staunch bug . Today heralds a new beginning for gold .

I can add further to this on a few other currencies of note , but the Swissie alone on this last data for POG has blown it out of the squares parameters .
This is a rare semaphore , like a comet that comes around every millenium .

Is this what we are after, can only find a 1 or 5 year chart, have opted for the latter, hop this helps:-

 

[ithatheekret]

Yep , that's the one explod , we can get a hatrick too , CAD and EUR are pretty good to add on the two year frame . CAD being rather interesting , Skippy has a bit of work to do .

 

[explod]

Yep , that's the one explod , we can get a hatrick too , CAD and EUR are pretty good to add on the two year frame . CAD being rather interesting , Skippy has a bit of work to do .

Hope this does it, Kitco dont, have a 2 year, cheers:-

 

[explod]

And the Euro:-

 

[barrett]

Thanks Explod, yes, very bullish to see gold break out in all these major currencies ithatheekret, is that the feature of these charts you're referring to?

 

[barrett]

Originally Posted by barrett
In nearly all cases the commercials produce gold and the shorts just mean they've just settled for a lower price to sell it at..

Sorry, Barrett, thats totally incorrect. Bullion banks and the like are the major shorts, not gold producers. For the last 7 years producers have been reducing hedges put on in the 90s and early 00s, In the last 6 months NCM have had to raise funds to buy back $2b worth of hedges, Barrick the same, but still have huge hedging left (their last Q report was misread by many as closing out all hedges, that isn't what it said at all.) So with all these gold miners reducing hedges drastically the increase in open interest in the Commercials can't and didn't come from the miners.


I expect by this Friday's COT report the commercials will have increased their net short position.

Yes I agree. Many of the shorts are working for the Central Banks, monetary authorities and powers that be and don't want an out of control gold price signalling the system is breaking down. I doubt they are throwing in the towel yet, I just said it would be fireworks when they do. And when they do they will just retreat to another line in the sand and try to take a stand there. I doubt this is the final capitulation by any means. There is a loooooong way to go yet.

Hi Silver,
You're right, as well as the producers the commercial shorts do include an unknown proportion of banks and dealers such as bullion banks, and central banks selling short. Some players will be getting badly squeezed and a default at some point would not be surprising (though would a crisis not more likely be resolved by cash settlement, bailouts etc. than the authorities allowing a massive run on the gold market?)

The activities of other industry insiders like bullion banks don't alter the solid 36-year track record of extreme values in the commercial net short positions in gold for predicting the future direction of the gold price. In gold this indicator, while not infallible, is more reliable than in any other commodity or currency. Here is an article by a credible COT skeptic on the subject.. http://www.bearmarketcentral.com/COT.htm I'm open to all lines of argument but I've not yet heard a convincing one that it's different this time and the COT should be entirely ignored..

A large commercial short position like we have now indicates a high probability of a pullback in the gold price, typically the larger the short position, the deeper and harder the correction. The catch is that it doesn't tell us when the correction will occur. Only that there is a strong likelihood of lower prices to come.

Gold could still go considerably higher in the meantime, and I am long comex gold and looking to buy more soon for a potential run into the high 800's. I'm not going to fight this long term bull, just always on the lookout for a discount if one's coming Cheers Barrett

 

[barrett]

Here's my (beginner's) count of wave 3 of the impulse wave that began on 3 Dec 07 at 776, that being wave 5 of the impulse wave that began on 26 June 07 at 637.

If the count in this chart is correct and wave 3 of wave 5 is complete we might reasonably now expect:

1) ten days or so of consolidation in wave 4 of wave 5, probably holding above 845
2) an explosive wave 5 of wave 5 taking gold into the high 800's or even 900 by February

Just my guess at this point, comments welcome
Barrett

Thanks to 'kauri trading' thread for charting software

 

[rederob]

Thanks Explod, yes, very bullish to see gold break out in all these major currencies ithatheekret, is that the feature of these charts you're referring to?

I think the point is that gold has only really been "strong" in USD.
If gold is a safe haven, then other currencies will be buying gold because it's still comparatively cheap.
Furthermore, the technicals in other currencies suggest that (so long as the USD value remains steady) the "breakout is just starting its run north. Accordinly, POG in USD should climb well over $900 before any significant retrace.

 

[chops_a_must]

Accordinly, POG in USD should climb well over $900 before any significant retrace.

I disagree red. We went parabolic last night with a massive sell spike. It now looks like we are getting an island reversal. Will be trading this to the downside tonight.

 

[rederob]

I disagree red. We went parabolic last night with a massive sell spike. It now looks like we are getting an island reversal. Will be trading this to the downside tonight.

Island reversal?
We must be looking at different charts - I don't get an island in the past 3 months for gold daily (it's as far back as I looked!).
We just broke through a 2-month period of consolidation and are on a rising tide fuelled by strong oil prices.
The current breakout should stretch out a little longer.
But it's neither here nor there for my gold investments, which truly are long term.
Fly on, gold.....

 

[chops_a_must]

Island reversal?
We must be looking at different charts - I don't get an island in the past 3 months for gold daily (it's as far back as I looked!).
We just broke through a 2-month period of consolidation and are on a rising tide fuelled by strong oil prices.
The current breakout should stretch out a little longer.
But it's neither here nor there for my gold investments, which truly are long term.
Fly on, gold.....

Sorry, I'm flying blind at the moment with gold... Probably couldn't have picked a worse night either.

The whipsaw a little while back probably threw everything out the window anyway.

 

[chops_a_must]

Scratch the safety net on the S&P , gone negative and just 5 points off that 1440 region , just below that , is their chit , shock and shudder territory and a breach of 11425 is sphincter reactions , fainting and pants soiling material .

Yep. Looks like the December lows are going to get a workout tonight. Given the Dow has been strongly rejected when trying to come up above each time, I'd expect the S&P to give out, eventually.

 

[barrett]

You had the right idea chops, just a pity about that false breakout.. I can't get over how many longs jumped in at 862.. their sell stops seem to have punctured the 2-week uptrend. Bit early to call yet but I reckon this triple top is probably it for wave 3.

 

[chops_a_must]

You had the right idea chops, just a pity about that false breakout.. I can't get over how many longs jumped in at 862.. their sell stops seem to have punctured the 2-week uptrend. Bit early to call yet but I reckon this triple top is probably it for wave 3.

Well, thanks to IB it looks like I missed out on about $1100 on that trade alone, in very short time. But I can't tell, because I no longer have feed into my charts.

 

[ithatheekret]

Onya Explod , well done mate .

If you look at the CAD then the Euro chart you will see why I posed the the query on the comfort of $840 , ( calling 841.75 the low ) , don't worry I'm rock proof , told a couple of mates that are brokers they laughed at me ..... then took me for drinks last night ...... I won a bet . Note I have an $839 too in my figures which are 839 842 848 , I think close to one of these will be the next base price . My pricings are based on the Euro gold price not a USD price , I even went against it in the Swissie for a tad , it didn't last long and the profit was small . When I went over the charts to pickout any mistakes I must have had a POG chart up already and overlaid it accidentally , so I did a few more and then hurriedly moved on the Swissie . The Swissie is the test case for most plays against the USD , I know the Euro is the next reserve in line , but the Swissie semaphore the moves , whether good or nasty . The other currencies are blocked up with speculation , the Swissie is my fear monitor .

My pricing calculations have always managed a laugh somewhere along the line , especially when I told them to short the lot it was easier and safer , they laughed again , but I did note after a few bevvies that the S&P chat itself last night , new undies there . Bit like the 6200 test we had here , I had a dinner on that one , still waiting for it too , Grouchos is fully booked up apparently , so it might have to be the Cork and Cleaver ( that must say something about wallet constraints in Adelaide )

You think that's good , one chap who lost because the Dow has now moved under 13000 , has to streak past channel 7 down by the river at Gilberton .

I will do my utmost to catch it on camera . His girlfriend who has jeans without hips , has to cut up her favourite jeans and supply the Salvos with 5 new blankets , that won't be cheap , one from each of us

A bet is a bet .

 

[Nyden]

Oy, gold bugs!

I was just wondering how you true-believers expose yourselves to gold? Do you go for traded stocks that represent physical gold, or mining companies?

Know of any goldies paying half decent dividends? As I only want dividend paying stocks at the moment. I'm currently leaning towards NEM, but need to do further research on their assets.

 

[explod]

Oy, gold bugs!

I was just wondering how you true-believers expose yourselves to gold? Do you go for traded stocks that represent physical gold, or mining companies?

Know of any goldies paying half decent dividends? As I only want dividend paying stocks at the moment. I'm currently leaning towards NEM, but need to do further research on their assets.

Cant advise but what I have is of my total trading capital I have 50% in gold and silver bullion (in a bank vault.) If needed I can retrieve and turn it into cash in an hour. The other 50% is on shares, mostly in gold and my blue chip holdings are in order of my preference, AVO and LGL, midcap SBM and specs SRI and RNG. Almost pulled the plug on half my gold stocks yesterday as I feel a gold correction is near, it held off overnight which gives breathing space. I do like to sell off some in the peaks and go back in the dips but this can be a hard one to get right. Thinking of reducing my Bullion % as the gold stocks contiue to outperform and consensis seems to suggest this may continue. Having said that the bullion has improved 10% this last month, but after travelling sideways for the last 18 months. Made more than 100% from shares in the same period so that says a lot.

I purchase my Bullion directly from Johnson Matthey's. But I think electronic purchases by and held by the Perth Mint is highly regarded.

NEM is a very good solid performer with dividend, (I dont bother chasing dividends but had one turn up the other day from NEM) only got out recently as it appears our Aussies are doing better and from bitter experience I do not like offshore whilst our dollar looks to continue its upward bias. Another solid for newcomers would be NCM, Newcrest, went up 10% I think on thursday.

Hope this helps, just my way. Warren Buffet says, "do not buy anything you do not understand"

 

[So_Cynical]

Oy, gold bugs!

I was just wondering how you true-believers expose yourselves to gold? Do you go for traded stocks that represent physical gold, or mining companies?

Know of any goldies paying half decent dividends? As I only want dividend paying stocks at the moment. I'm currently leaning towards NEM, but need to do further research on their assets.

TRY Troy resources pays dividends.