Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[michael_selway]

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

Gold ............... SO MUCH TALK ABOUT GOLD

THE GOLD MARKET
IS NO DIFFRENT THAN ANY OTHER MARKET OUT THERE

ITS NOT ENOUGH To understand or follow only the fundamentals to justify How, Why, and Where ......
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Markets are a battle ground beteween Bulls and Bears .
( We all know this )

More importantly.....

It is also a battle between Technicals and Fundamentals
Sometimes, Fundamentals make the market move... and Sometimes ,Technicals makes the market move .

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Here's a Long Term look at Gold

Utilizing Elliott Waves ................. Is it overbought ?

what does those yellow dots mean?

thx

MS

 

[Double Six]

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

MW

do not like the look of your C wave count at all

(I suspect that you dont either)

 

[rederob]

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

what does those yellow dots mean?

thx

MS

Just my view MS, but after closely examing the yellow dots I confidently diagnose chicken pox - and a strong breakout is underway!

Rather than procrastinate with chart action, let's put gold's case into context.
If we look at the bull run of commodities since 2001 and compare where gold would be if it rose by the same percentage of each of the following commodities to date, we would find:

Silver @ 140% equals gold @ $600
Platinum @ 160% equals gold @ $650
Zinc @ 220% a equals gold @ $800
Copper @ 280% equals gold @ $950
Crude Oil or Nickel @ 300% equals gold @ $1000
Heating Oil @ 360% equals gold @ $1150
Natural Gas @430% equals gold @ $1325

So let's ask some silly questions:
Why has gold and silver performed so badly against other commodities?
If gold is overbought, what is copper, or natural gas?
Does being overbought stop a commodity from rising?
Is it possible for mined commodities to match the percentage gains of drilled (energy) commodities?
How much longer will commotity prices keep rising for?
If commodity prices stop rising, does that mean that precious metals will also stop rising?

I will answer my silly questions after I have read MARKETWAVES answers to my earlier questions.

 

[MARKETWAVES]

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

Rederob.....
I'm in agreement with what you are saying.... the problem that I have found with alot of posts is that there is no visual representation to explain what a person is trying to communicate. Looking at threads with just words all over the place doesnt really get noticed the way it should...........

There is nothing wrong with fundamental analysis
............................................................................................
Alot of what you are saying in the above post leads to fundamental thinking and analysis. Again, there is agreement here about what you are saying.

All I am trying to make people aware of is that trading is a battte ground.....- We all want to survive .....

It's not about being right all the time, it's about averages, It's about managing Risk.
The Battle is truly between Bulls and Bears and more importantly between technicals and fundamentals. Sometimes a market will move because of fundamentals or (news), other times a market will move by pure technicals with no news or fundamentals to support it.

Hopefully some people out there reading this will at least try to understand this for I have not seen the topic talked about in this forum......

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Here are some of my trade setups and their outcome............

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2718

 

[wayneL]

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

Just my view MS, but after closely examing the yellow dots I confidently diagnose chicken pox - and a strong breakout is underway!

Rather than procrastinate with chart action, let's put gold's case into context.
If we look at the bull run of commodities since 2001 and compare where gold would be if it rose by the same percentage of each of the following commodities to date, we would find:

Silver @ 140% equals gold @ $600
Platinum @ 160% equals gold @ $650
Zinc @ 220% a equals gold @ $800
Copper @ 280% equals gold @ $950
Crude Oil or Nickel @ 300% equals gold @ $1000
Heating Oil @ 360% equals gold @ $1150
Natural Gas @430% equals gold @ $1325

So let's ask some silly questions:
Why has gold and silver performed so badly against other commodities?
If gold is overbought, what is copper, or natural gas?
Does being overbought stop a commodity from rising?
Is it possible for mined commodities to match the percentage gains of drilled (energy) commodities?
How much longer will commotity prices keep rising for?
If commodity prices stop rising, does that mean that precious metals will also stop rising?

I will answer my silly questions after I have read MARKETWAVES answers to my earlier questions.

Not withstanding your points regarding the fundamentals of Gold...all of which I agree with, there is a fundamental difference (pun intended) between a technical trader and a fundamental trader.

Techies may appear to dither, hop in and out, short at the wrong time. long at the wrong time, whereas the fundie has taken a position long ago and just sitting there watching and possibly adding.

Yep I'm guilty of all the above. Fortunately, we get it right sometimes. We also use the mathematics of expectancy and money management.

What this means is that the position size of a fundie and a techie will be different. Most of the folks I know accumating gold on a fundamental basis (of a similar capital) could fit their entire gold holdings in one trouser pocket (assuming they were holding the physical). That's fine, thats prudent.

The techies position size could be way way larger. For instance a 10 contract trade represents a tad over 30 kgs of physical gold.,..wheelbarrow stuff.

Not saying its better, just a different way of skinning the same cat.

Cheers

 

[rederob]

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

MARKETWAVES
Thanks for your reply.
You seem to be a "trader" and must manage risks to preserve capital.
I am more an "investor" and take technically unwise risks, but I acquire greater capital from working in a field that's not market related.
I am very overweight in commodity equities and options, and will remain so until I see a tsunami like event unfolding - I don't bother about the tides unless it's about adding to a position.
Over the next ten years I might learn enough to contemplate "trading", but there is alot to be learnt every now and then following a stock down the gurgler.
Your point about visual representations is valid, and I suspect most people look at charts in tandem with any decision to put money on the line. I guess I would be more inclined to "forecast" off a presented chart and wear the flak because I am trying to "predict" the market having taken a long term view. But that does not mean I cannot liquidate every position tomorrow if the global view changes.
Your other point, "It's not about being right all the time", is interesting. In the markets, my contention is that it's always about trying to be right all the time. I have no intenetion of trying to lose money - I just know that market and me will come to the occasional disagreement and I have the good grace to know that at every second my money is "in the market", the market is right.


Wayne
Yes, as folk take to skinning cats I will hunt them down and report them to the RSPCA!
I am more worried about the "pussy footing around" that's happening.
Every time I look at the thread heading, I am giving my perspective and accept the consequences.
But in posting bullishly I am hoping to entice out a bear that will bring me back to earth.
There is no point holding a bullish perspective if there is bad or contrary news around. I do not want to be that blinkered racehorse that has crossed the finishing line so wide of the mark that “I can see I have won”, but in reality was beaten by every other thoroughbred on course.

 

[wayneL]

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

Wayne
Yes, as folk take to skinning cats I will hunt them down and report them to the RSPCA!

Well yes! Thanks to that damned Hugh Wirth, we actually only shave them and weave the fur into a backing cloth to give the impression of a true pelt. It's all smoke and mirrors these days, hey. They only let us do it in summer as well. It's really eating into our profit margins

 

[wayneL]

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

Well I said this on my blog yesterday:

Gold continues to taunt by trickling upwards. This has sent me scurrying to my textbooks to try and find some sort of bearish implications in all of this so I can wait for a pull back before going long. The best I could find was a "rising wedge", which is allegedly bearish.

...and then gold falls out of the sky today. Was away from the charts when it tanked so looking on, wistfully...

 

[wayneL]

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

Jim Puplava had a guest on his show over the weekend, who apparently is convinced that the fed is about to unleash a war on POG.

http://www.netcastdaily.com/fsnewshour.htm look for "Micheal Bolsner" (mp3 file on top right)

This could be the start, if he's right.

 

[wayneL]

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

Jim Puplava had a guest on his show over the weekend, who apparently is convinced that the fed is about to unleash a war on POG.

http://www.netcastdaily.com/fsnewshour.htm look for "Micheal Bolsner" (mp3 file on top right)

This could be the start, if he's right.

Whoa!

Just listening to this program. All gold longs should listen to this. The relevant section is towards the end of the program.

Cheers

 

[wayneL]

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

-$20

Ahahahahahahahaha

Pity I didn't take the short

 

[wayneL]

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

-$24

:grenade:

 

[rederob]

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

I will be looking to buy more gold equities in late afternoon if gold holds during Asian trading, and have another crack at the markets tomorrow.
Usually only a few "sales" present themselves each year - this one is truly excellent.

 

[WaySolid]

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

Hmm just made a comment on your blog Wayne, I see that you have already listened to Jim.

Jim recruits coherent speakers but it should be remembered they all have an angle to press. I actually really like his show but somehow always end up feeling very depressed after listening, thats what you get hanging around with bears

a 9.6% fall, looks like there are a few of this magnitude in the last few years. Healthy one day move.

I note the Commercials have been net short for some months in gold and silver using my look back period. And sentiment has been euphoric. Open interest almost halved today in Gold, wonder what this means?

 

[wayneL]

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

I will be looking to buy more gold equities in late afternoon if gold holds during Asian trading, and have another crack at the markets tomorrow.
Usually only a few "sales" present themselves each year - this one is truly excellent.

Well if the Fed is in fact intervening here, as suggested by Bolsner, then one would expect even more excellent buys in a few days time. The bastids could even cap off the topside here for an extended period of time. It seems a bit counterintuitive in a natural market, but who says gold is a natural market?

GATA says it's been manipulated for years.

I would put nothing past "the evil empire" now.

 

[markrmau]

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

Jim Puplava had a guest on his show over the weekend, who apparently is convinced that the fed is about to unleash a war on POG.

http://www.netcastdaily.com/fsnewshour.htm look for "Micheal Bolsner" (mp3 file on top right)

This could be the start, if he's right.

Was it these comments about government intervention (100tn about to be sold) the cause of todays fall? How widely is this newshour program listened to?

 

[noirua]

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

http://www.aireview.com/index.php?act=view&catid=8&id=3510&setSub=1

 

[rederob]

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

Well if the Fed is in fact intervening here, as suggested by Bolsner, then one would expect even more excellent buys in a few days time.

I hope you are right.
I have a low-priced bid on LHG shares as I regard them as the best valued gold equities in our markets at the moment.

 

[crackaton]

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

POG and POS look like taking another hit tonite. Good luck puntrs and holders, andother sea of red approaching

 

[Smurf1976]

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

Was it these comments about government intervention (100tn about to be sold) the cause of todays fall? How widely is this newshour program listened to?

Don't know how many listen to it but I do from time to time. Most of the people they get on there do seem to really know their stuff and I've heard them present both sides of the argument, sometimes agreeing to disagree on major points amongst the regular commentators and the presenter, so I don't think it's overly biased as such despite the mostly bearish theme of their topics. They've pointed out quite a few means to make money rather than just preserving it.

I've heard them mention receiving letters from numerous countries including Australia. Like most commentators I think they are better with the "what" than the "when" although in this case they could have got the timing pretty right it appears. Time will tell.