Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[bullmarket]

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

Hi and welcome rederob

Good to see another refugee from KA coming over here

Does arthur know you've defected to here? He wasn't too happy after I left his site

cheers

bullmarket

 

[michael_selway]

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

Hi and welcome rederob

Good to see another refugee from KA coming over here

Does arthur know you've defected to here? He wasn't too happy after I left his site

cheers

bullmarket

Hi what is KA?

thx

MS

 

[bullmarket]

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

Hi michael

KA is a stock forum I used to post at until I saw posts by a nic 'John Bedson' at commsec chat on the 12/12/2005 which led me to lose all confidence in the motives and integrity behind the KA site. I then told arthur at KA I will no longer be posting on his site.

I now only post on this forum and over at Stock Meeting Place as bullmarket. I used to post as qball over at commsec but I don't post there anymore since their chatrooms have far too much general chat for me.

cheers

bullmarket

 

[rederob]

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

Bullmarket
My altruism is boundless.
Buy gold, silver and zinc and prosper.

 

[wayneL]

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

Gold- triangle breakout.

I'll take any excuse to go long

http://lingrove.blogspot.com/2006/01/im-holding-gold-overnight.html

 

[RichKid]

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

An Elliott Waves Look At GOLD ...................


Bottom Line :
Looks like we are in a basic rising channel channel formation that we all learned in chartschool 101 ...

Outlook :
Gold has broken out of a serious base of consolidation back in June, July 2005 .....it is over bought ....
( not or me at the moment )

Marketwaves is intersted in Dips and Pulbacks .........

To use the word Breakout is the same as using profanity ......

/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////


Rich , Its good to hear that you are learning Elliott Waves formations .....

Here's something from Mr. Ralph Nelson Elliott


Always remeber it in your Travels ,,,,,,,,,

All markets move in 3's , 5's or 7's , then they correct ...

They are all fractal by nature ..............

---------------------

Nice charts again Markets, especially the last two, thanks for the tips too, not sure what you mean by '3's, 5's or 7's ' but I'll try to get my head around it, I thought the idea was five waves up punctuated by 3 corrective waves down...must read more.

Eitherway gold is confounding me atm, looks strong but like you I'd prefer to buy on a correction too. Do you think it'll be worth opening a thread on EW basics, maybe 'MW's EW school'? Just a thought, can go in the trading tactics forum.

btw, like your humour 'breakout=profanity'! hahaha

 

[RichKid]

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

Posters, just a reminder to keep threads on topic as mentioned before. Off topic threads will be deleted or edited without notice in future. Please search the forums for existing threads first or browse through the current thread to get the gist of what the thread is about. Thanks!

 

[rederob]

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

Gold is heading first to its previous high around th $850 mark.
Then it will breach $1000.
Then it will breach $2000.
Thereafter taxidrivers will have bought in and it will be time to sell.
$850 will be reached sometime in 2007 and $1000 in 2008.
My forecasts are guaranteed 100% accurate today, but I cannot say that gold has any respect for them thereafter.
More seriously, I note some people wanting to actively "trade" gold shares (futures is a different kettle of fish).
Trading was fine in the first leg from 2002 to late 2005.
If your risk tolerance is exceptional, it will fine over the coming years.
However, we are now entering a much more volatile market for gold and there will be sizable swings each way - more so than there were in the previous 3-4 years.
I believe the best advice is to reasearch a major low cost producer that is significantly unhedged, and hold for at least 12 months. You will be surprised at your gains.

 

[RichKid]

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

Gold is heading first to its previous high around th $850 mark.
Then it will breach $1000.
Then it will breach $2000.

Rederob, I'm afraid you're going to have to improve on statements of that nature. Please try to add some basis and substance and avoid ramping. How can anyone say gold 'will' go that high unless they have complete control over it? I think you've got a bit excited here, maybe a bit of a breather will do you good.

If you want to discuss gold stocks there are plenty of threads on it. Use the search tool.

We need to preserve the quality of posts on this forum, please read the forum code of conduct and posting guidelines. This forum does not suit everyone so see if you agree with the our rules before continuing, I hope you are able to stay.

 

[rederob]

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

RichKid
If you have evidence to the contrary I would welcome a debate.
The fact is that every time anyone posts a forward view it is likely to be wrong.
The more into the future that view, the more likely it will be wrong.
2 months ago gold was about $500 and today it is almost $70 higher. Extrapolating this rate of increase gives us gold at about $900 by the end of 2006. But that is ramping!
4 months ago gold was about $100 less than today, so that only gives us gold at around $850 by year's end.
6 months ago gold was about $130 less than today, giving us a gold price over $800 by year's end.
The questions all investors need to ask is if the past 6 months represent the prevailing trend, the past 4, the past 2, or none of the above.
The undeniable fact is that on "recent" trend there is absolutely nothing stopping gold being over $800 by the end of this year.
Accordingly, my suggestion/statement/forecast that gold would be $850 some time in 2007 is extremely conservative.
By the way, if you believe it unlikely that such a strong trend could eventuate for gold in 12 months, ask why copper rose well over 50 in price last year alone - in defiance of almost every specialist metals forecaster in the previous year.
If you want more "quality" I will return and dazzle with more correlations and extrapolations based on actual historical relationships between gold and a range of other commodities and indexes. Unfortunately some of these suggest gold will be well over $3000 but I am not so sure!

 

[wayneL]

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

If you want more "quality" I will return and dazzle with more correlations and extrapolations based on actual historical relationships between gold and a range of other commodities and indexes. Unfortunately some of these suggest gold will be well over $3000 but I am not so sure!

We'd look forward to that....and thats all we ask for when posting price projections.

Looking forward to it.

 

[bullmarket]

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

Hi RichKid

I tend to agree with you.

After I posted on the KA chat forum that I will no longer be posting there after comments about pumping and dumping by a nic 'John Bedson' on 12/12/2005 over at commsec's chatroom, I received an email from an email address containing 'rederob' in it asking me to come back. I'm not saying rederob is 'John Bedson' as rederob gave a different name in his email to me, but they both posted on the KA site.

But I haven't and won't be going back there as the pump and dump comments led me to lose all confidence in the motives and integrity behind that chat forum.

I suppose the common sense bottom line, especially for newbies to chat forums, is to beware of claims/predictions etc that are not accompanied with verifiable info to support the predictions and to question anything that appears suspicious.

cheers

bullmarket

 

[rederob]

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

Bullmarket.
John Bedson and rederob (ie, me) are 2 different people in real life - I have never met John, but I have posted and may continue to post on Bedson's site.

Pumping and dumping "gold" is an interesting concept as very few Australians trade in the gold markets - typically "futures": Australian equities is a different kettle of fish.
My post of 12.21pm yesterday was initially tongue in cheek, and then got to the more serious side of "trading". Carefully read what I said "more seriously" in that post and tell me if there is anything you would dispute.

I do not know how many of your readership follow the gold market, and my experience is limited to 6 years. Those that do follow gold will already be aware that there are "out there" forecasts from exceptionally reputable commentators - indeed, from folk that have made it their lifetime pursuit (readers can visit le metropole cafe website for such people if they are interested).

As for Bullmarket's advice to newbies, I say "piffle".
Treat every forecast with the gravest of contempt.
Don't look at what "verifiable" information the forecaster has presented as gospel - treat it all as unsubstantiated, unmitigated nonsense until you can say you have any confidence in it.
There is no substitute for doing your own research and coming to your own understanding - even if you do not get it right first time round (that’s why forums are so good)!

I have asked RichKid to present some/any reason as to why my unsubstantiated forecasts may be wrong, and I hope he can come up with something.
You see, the gold market is extremely complex, possibly even "manipulated", and despite attempts by many to talk down the gold price in recent years, it has risen.
Whenever it rises you will see mainstream commentators talk about people "flocking to gold as a safe haven", or as a "hedge against inflation", or some other pathetic reason they quickly drag up to justify the changed prices. Read more widely and you may learn that same event was due simply to short covering on the futures market, or a range of complex technical factors that required larger trading houses - often called "funds" - to adjust their exposure to gold. For example, the fund may have a large position in euros and be able to mitigate it by buying cheaper gold due to USD/euro exchange rate fluctuations.
I do not deny that gold has safe haven appeal, and I agree that it is an excellent hedge to inflation. But it is simplistic to use these market forces to explain volatile price movements when they occur.

Bullmarket, it's about time you put the KA incident behind you and moved on to focus on the theme of this thread. It is a theme I have a strong interest in. It is also one I enjoy most where people disagree and can substantiate the basis of their contention. While I applaud the anti-ramping sentiment of this forum, it behoves the anti-rampers to offer a counter.
Predictions of impending glom and doom are just as harmful as the euberant indulgences of erstwhile goldbugs.

 

[bullmarket]

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

no problem Rob

My earlier post today was simply agreeing with RichKid's post and giving my reasons why....I don't see any problem with that.

Re your comment below in reply to RichKid and Wayne's reply to your post I, like them, am still waiting to see what you can come up with as you offered. So far I haven't seen anything from you and so I will continue to be suspicious and question anything I feel is not clear as I see fit with no consideration for what you think as I and everyone else is 100% entitled to do if they choose...but that is just me....if you don't like it...tough...I'm not going to change

Originally Posted by rederob
If you want more "quality" I will return and dazzle with more correlations and extrapolations based on actual historical relationships between gold and a range of other commodities and indexes. Unfortunately some of these suggest gold will be well over $3000 but I am not so sure!

We'd look forward to that....and thats all we ask for when posting price projections.

Looking forward to it.

I'm not going to waste time arguing with you...I will just continue to call things as I see them and I await with interest with RichKid and Wayne to see what "more correlations and extrapolations based on actual historical relationships between gold and a range of other commodities and indexes. " you can come up with as you offered.

Good luck with your trading

bullmarket

 

[Rafa]

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

i agree...

the more information you post red rob, the better...

 

[Smurf1976]

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

When posting on this fourm my preference is to give people information or opinion, and I'll state which it is if it's not obvious, which enables those reading to draw their own conclusions in conjuction with whatever other information they may have on the subject.

That said, my own opinion on gold is that it is in a bull market. That's simply my observation based on price action and having read plenty of commentary on the subject. Up and down but the trend appears to be up.

Will the upwards price trend continue? I really don't know. There's plenty of arguments which say that it will, but nothing is certain. Many bull markets experience a major crash at some point during their run and I can't see a reason why gold couldn't do the same. But if as claimed there's limited ability for mines to ramp up production and the printing of fiat currencies contines at its recent pace then the fundamentals would seem to be favourable.

As I said, draw your own conclusions!

 

[rederob]

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

The more compelling case would be to debunk the direction of gold: Grateful for some antagonists to join the fray!

Please do not expect me to fire on all cylinders during the week - I earn a living outside of the markets and just pop in here during my spare time.
I have attached a chart of three indexes - the Gold and Silver Index relative to the Oil Index and the Dow Jones Industrials Index - over a 20 year period.
There is a generally expectation that at various stages along their respective journeys, indexes "trend", or counter trend, and ocasionally cross each other as their relative strengths wax and wane.
This chart shows that until very recently, the XAU has been comatose. Extreme gold bugs forecast that when the Dow finally collapses under the burden of US twin deficits, the price of gold going up will "cross" the path of the Dow going down. Is that possible? One thing for sure, it is not impossible - just implausible right now!

 

[MARKETWAVES]

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

Gold ............... SO MUCH TALK ABOUT GOLD

THE GOLD MARKET
IS NO DIFFRENT THAN ANY OTHER MARKET OUT THERE

ITS NOT ENOUGH To understand or follow only the fundamentals to justify How, Why, and Where ......
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Markets are a battle ground beteween Bulls and Bears .
( We all know this )

More importantly.....

It is also a battle between Technicals and Fundamentals
Sometimes, Fundamentals make the market move... and Sometimes ,Technicals makes the market move .

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Here's a Long Term look at Gold

Utilizing Elliott Waves ................. Is it overbought ?

 

[rederob]

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

Here's a Long Term look at Gold

Utilizing Elliott Waves ................. Is it overbought ?

Are you seeking confirmation from the charts (technicals) that it is overbought, and if so what other indicators do you suggest we look at?
If it is overbought, can you please explain why that is important?
Is there a particular implication if it is overbought, eg the suggestion that we should wait until it is not overbought (assuming it "is") before we buy gold?
Is it common in this forum to just toss up a chart and let everyone have a crack at deciphering it - kind of like the Rorschach inkblot test?
As Rafa says, the more information you post, the better...
I look forward to Wayne's inevitable response, as well.

 

[wayneL]

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

I look forward to Wayne's inevitable response, as well.

Well inevitably, my inevitable response was only made inevitable by your "inevitable" comment!!? LOL

Otherwise, no, nothing to add here....waiting for further direction from the "ink blots"