Gold Mining Stocks

[finicky]

KCN is looking good.
Has a few issues atm but ramping up to full production before the year is out.

Ex holder. The company's alright, the resource is alright, exploration potential strong, the labour force is a big tick. The govt and bureaucracy are filthy. The company keeps capitulating to delays from the government, so the weapon of a judgement that can be handed down from the international tribunal for settlement of commercial disputes (or whatever it's called) is not a weapon that the Thais take seriously. Nor is KCN able or willing to trigger it apparently. So if you were limited to one gold stock it's be very reckless to choose this one imo.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Thanks v.much @Sean K @finicky @brerwallabi @divs4ever @ducati916 and @anca .

Much information to collate and to further investigate. I accept members advice re the bravery of just picking one stock. Unfortunately in the past my spreading the risk on Gold stocks has lead to mediocre performance with the uppsies not outweighing the downsies by sufficient profit to encourage me to continue doing so. My investment time frame on the stock I pick is 2-3 years and is predicated on a rise in the POG, price of gold. It is a brave call, I agree.

I won't post my ultimate decision as I am very superstitious and rarely admit to holding or deleting a stock from my portfolio until it is well in profit or removed due to underperformance.

I believe Gold stocks will beat the market over the next 2-5 years by some multiple, the timing of my buy is irrelevant in the short term, so I'll keep on watching this thread which has already through the past 12 months with posts from @rcw1 @Sean K @Telamelo @mullokintyre @noirua given me some interesting rabbit holes down which to pop. Apologies if I've left anyone out. And on that score the members mentioned in this post would be some of the more interesting Gold watchers on ASF. So keep on posting on Gold stocks.

Wish me luck !

gg

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I'm about to have a very big bet on a Gold stock. Just one. I feel the POG is about to take off in a big way and wish to provide even more for my ungrateful family when I eventually cark it which is not imminent (as far as can be told).

What do ASF posters feel are the producing Australian Gold stocks with the highest Gold to be mined in the next 2 years and also in the next 5 years. I'm not really interested in the Hail Mary exploring stocks down the pre-production end. I've done a bit of ivestiga myself and will post as my fellow memebers (also members) post their particular favourites.

So my criteria are:

Gold Stocks
Aussie
Producers
Landing mined Gold over the next 2-5 years.
No Hail Marys
No "projecting " Stocks
Only Stocks with Gold for sale.

GOR looks tasty, but I hesitate.

gg

I just thought I'd post on some Gold Stocks for a better view of suitable stocks for a win over a 2-5 year period. Taking a top down attitude I note the market has been kind to some stocks mentioned here already. I'll just pop up a screenshot of the Materials Section on the ASX today.

The large Golders are doing well and in the green. Perhaps others have similar thoughts to this humble poster on the future for Gold stocks. GOR, NEM, PRU BGL (not shown)and EVN appear on the big guys list, and some not highlighted in the first screenshot.

A pick among safety in large cap may be the way to go then say that to Alan Bond. I will delve.




gg

 

[divs4ever]

Thanks v.much @Sean K @finicky @brerwallabi @divs4ever @ducati916 and @anca .

Much information to collate and to further investigate. I accept members advice re the bravery of just picking one stock. Unfortunately in the past my spreading the risk on Gold stocks has lead to mediocre performance with the uppsies not outweighing the downsies by sufficient profit to encourage me to continue doing so. My investment time frame on the stock I pick is 2-3 years and is predicated on a rise in the POG, price of gold. It is a brave call, I agree.

I won't post my ultimate decision as I am very superstitious and rarely admit to holding or deleting a stock from my portfolio until it is well in profit or removed due to underperformance.

I believe Gold stocks will beat the market over the next 2-5 years by some multiple, the timing of my buy is irrelevant in the short term, so I'll keep on watching this thread which has already through the past 12 months with posts from @rcw1 @Sean K @Telamelo @mullokintyre @noirua given me some interesting rabbit holes down which to pop. Apologies if I've left anyone out. And on that score the members mentioned in this post would be some of the more interesting Gold watchers on ASF. So keep on posting on Gold stocks.

Wish me luck !

gg

well my best gold stock was AAO , which morphed into EML ( and i took the exit , before things got complicated there ) and had a very nice multi-bagger

but of course EML is no longer a gold stock

another nice little play isn't really a 'gold stock ' either and it is ZIM

i did well on AGG but then they decided to leave the ASX , and on OZL as well ( it started as a gold/copper play and turned into a copper/gold play )

and what is ' a safe gold miner' heck they even took out Newcrest , so any other gold producer ( except BHP ) must be a potential target as well ( even RIO )

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

KCN is looking good.
Has a few issues atm but ramping up to full production before the year is out.

Ex holder. The company's alright, the resource is alright, exploration potential strong, the labour force is a big tick. The govt and bureaucracy are filthy. The company keeps capitulating to delays from the government, so the weapon of a judgement that can be handed down from the international tribunal for settlement of commercial disputes (or whatever it's called) is not a weapon that the Thais take seriously. Nor is KCN able or willing to trigger it apparently. So if you were limited to one gold stock it's be very reckless to choose this one imo.

Just going over the suggestions for a Gold stock on which to have a large bet with the expectation of a big payoff over 2-5 years I believe I'll pass on KCN @anca . On the Crofts Scale for yapping dogs it scores a 10 out of 10 for dismal past and prospects, although it had an up tick in price today for some rwason today. The governance in Chile and Thailand deciding on whether the Gumnut grandchildren should be sold in to lifetime penury does not excite me.

So KCN is out.

gg

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

well my best gold stock was AAO , which morphed into EML ( and i took the exit , before things got complicated there ) and had a very nice multi-bagger

but of course EML is no longer a gold stock

another nice little play isn't really a 'gold stock ' either and it is ZIM

i did well on AGG but then they decided to leave the ASX , and on OZL as well ( it started as a gold/copper play and turned into a copper/gold play )

and what is ' a safe gold miner' heck they even took out Newcrest , so any other gold producer ( except BHP ) must be a potential target as well ( even RIO )

While enjoying your off topic contributions divsie @divs4ever , it would be comforting to my amygdala if you could confine your off topic remarks at least to Gold stocks.

My quest is simple, to work down through the many GOLD STOCKS and find a golder that would be comfortable to me to have a large bet with a payoff in 2-5 years. This unfortunately perforce excludes many of the stocks mentioned in your brainfart.

gg

ps. FMG is not a bl***y Gold stock neither.

 

[divs4ever]

I just thought I'd post on some Gold Stocks for a better view of suitable stocks for a win over a 2-5 year period. Taking a top down attitude I note the market has been kind to some stocks mentioned here already. I'll just pop up a screenshot of the Materials Section on the ASX today.

The large Golders are doing well and in the green. Perhaps others have similar thoughts to this humble poster on the future for Gold stocks. GOR, NEM, PRU BGL (not shown)and EVN appear on the big guys list, and some not highlighted in the first screenshot.

A pick among safety in large cap may be the way to go then say that to Alan Bond. I will delve.

View attachment 169514


gg

i am VERY surprised to see ATM featured where it is ( i hold ATM) sure it produces gold ( and even retails it ) but is better known for the other resources it mines/processes

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

@Garpal Gumnut might be good to do a Top 3, or Top 5, preferred ASX gold stocks to narrow down the list?

I'm currently 30% gold and holding:

CEL, EVN, FFM, GDX, NEM, NST, PDI, PMGOLD, SR2, SSR, WAF, Physical PMs.

Most of them are crap and don't fit your bill.

If I did a top three that would fit your criteria it might be:

NST, WAF, GDX.

WAF and PDI are in my picks for the 2024 stock comp (huge risk) but if you look at the CTM chart for 2023 you should run away.

Thanks @Sean K ,

NST, WAF and GDX look interesting. WAF being a West African play doesn't fit in to my comfort zone, just a first look feeling. GDX brings the issues of being an ETF, but it would limit my risks. However I'm after a big bang with a common-sense stock and certainly I will look at all stocks mentioned and comment as I go.

Thanks all for your patience with me.

gg

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

how about two that don't actually mine gold ( currently ) but receive a steady income ??

have a look at RND and TBR

( i hold RND ) both very illiquid and joined a lot closer than at the hip

there are several gold producers , but which ones can win the battle between rising costs and gold price manipulation

i suspect costs will start to blow-out for a variety of reasons

good luck

PS i also hold GOR

Thanks divsie @divs4ever

These are more like the stocks in which I would be interested. GOR as you state keeps on coming up. Give me a mad @divsie minute or two please on GOR. What it is. Problems with it. Prospects. Actual real Ross Island Hotel Money for nothing and Chicks for free earnings and divies. Your experience with it, and don't mention FMG or any other stock.

A friend.

gg

 

[divs4ever]

Thanks divsie @divs4ever

These are more like the stocks in which I would be interested. GOR as you state keeps on coming up. Give me a mad @divsie minute or two please on GOR. What it is. Problems with it. Prospects. Actual real Ross Island Hotel Money for nothing and Chicks for free earnings and divies. Your experience with it, and don't mention FMG or any other stock.

A friend.

gg

i don't have a problem with GOR , in fact i hold a few , i just do not think it is at an attractive price yet ( not even for a medium size bite , in my opinion )

i used to have the same view as you on Africa , but the 'civilized world' is starting to fray , and suddenly places like Africa PNG aren't the
worst places on the map( investing-wise )

gold producers in general in Australia are going to face skill shortages and rising costs , in general 'high grade gold translates to difficult to mine ( other-wise 170 years of miners would have already dug it out and sold it ) so you are looking for about 2g a tonne but alluvial or reprocessing tailings dams and waste heaps ( easy digging , no extensive mine shafts )

i know it is mostly a silver play but keep an eye on SVL ( i don't hold ) especially if they delay the underground mining

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

i don't have a problem with GOR , in fact i hold a few , i just do not think it is at an attractive price yet ( not even for a medium size bite , in my opinion )

i used to have the same view as you on Africa , but the 'civilized world' is starting to fray , and suddenly places like Africa PNG aren't the
worst places on the map( investing-wise )

gold producers in general in Australia are going to face skill shortages and rising costs , in general 'high grade gold translates to difficult to mine ( other-wise 170 years of miners would have already dug it out and sold it ) so you are looking for about 2g a tonne but alluvial or reprocessing tailings dams and waste heaps ( easy digging , no extensive mine shafts )

i know it is mostly a silver play but keep an eye on SVL ( i don't hold ) especially if they delay the underground mining

Thanks divsie @divs4ever

Give me a mad @divsie minute or two please on GOR. What it is. Problems with it. Prospects. Actual real Ross Island Hotel Money for nothing and Chicks for free earnings and divies. Your experience with it, and don't mention FMG or any other stock.
gg

So, no mad divsie minute on GOR ?

Just GOR.

GOR.

gg

 

[divs4ever]

So, no mad divsie minute on GOR ?

Just GOR.

GOR.

gg

have sent a PM with some research

but my concerns are not isolated to GOR but across the Australian gold-mining scene

there is a move across many producers to trim mining operation costs , some were switching from diesel power plants to gas-fired , but that apparently is not 'green enough ' so are being coerced to solar/wind/battery , that should be educational in northern Australia , in fact might have glitches in most of inland Australia , i will be also watching the move towards electric trucks ( but apparently not other heavy machinery ) in hostile conditions , but Australia also has a skilled worker deficit , everything from heavy vehicle drivers , to electricians etc etc etc , so one might expect high wage demands ( above real inflation rises ) as well as difficulty getting replacement arts in a timely manner , increasing plant down-times

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Another predictably sh*t Qtrly from the geniuses at RRL and FY24 is guided to be a worse ASIC.
With the inept hedges to be finally sold off over FY24 at a rate of 30kozs per Qtr that'd be at an added loss of almost $40m per Qtr I think. Then there'll be an added 'non cash' $87m if I've got it right to be written off their low grade stockpile of ore as it's no longer profitable to process at today's inflated costs. The stockpile was valued at its mining cost of $200 per oz so they're going to add that as a $200/oz impost to FY24 ASIC per oz. My guess is it shouldn't have been valued as an asset at all if it was that borderline, but it gave this desperate company a better look at that time to mark it an asset not waste.
The high capital costs will go on for years with McPhillamys coming up.

Held ?

View attachment 160126

have sent a PM with some research

but my concerns are not isolated to GOR but across the Australian gold-mining scene

there is a move across many producers to trim mining operation costs , some were switching from diesel power plants to gas-fired , but that apparently is not 'green enough ' so are being coerced to solar/wind/battery , that should be educational in northern Australia , in fact might have glitches in most of inland Australia , i will be also watching the move towards electric trucks ( but apparently not other heavy machinery ) in hostile conditions , but Australia also has a skilled worker deficit , everything from heavy vehicle drivers , to electricians etc etc etc , so one might expect high wage demands ( above real inflation rises ) as well as difficulty getting replacement arts in a timely manner , increasing plant down-times

i don't have a problem with GOR , in fact i hold a few , i just do not think it is at an attractive price yet ( not even for a medium size bite , in my opinion )

i used to have the same view as you on Africa , but the 'civilized world' is starting to fray , and suddenly places like Africa PNG aren't the
worst places on the map( investing-wise )

gold producers in general in Australia are going to face skill shortages and rising costs , in general 'high grade gold translates to difficult to mine ( other-wise 170 years of miners would have already dug it out and sold it ) so you are looking for about 2g a tonne but alluvial or reprocessing tailings dams and waste heaps ( easy digging , no extensive mine shafts )

i know it is mostly a silver play but keep an eye on SVL ( i don't hold ) especially if they delay the underground mining
Man oh man, the Australian Gold mining space as I go through it is a litany of disaster.

Seems a bit too risky buying only one GG.
Over 20 years in gold stocks now and I feel less confident in my judgement and gold stock predictability than ever.
Really they seem crap investments - always having operational problems, always spending hugely on sustaIning and 'growth' capital. Also voracious managements and highly paid employees.
As posted, about the only one I'm interested in adding is GOR, although the increasing weakness in the SSR price is giving me an itch. I'd be betting against the market by increasing my exposure to SSR though, never a good idea for an individual gold stock in my painful experience, e.g. I kept chasing DCN down (a producer) not to mention a disastrous accumulation of explorers that the market was 'neglecting', lol.
WAF (African mines but Oz operated) and SLR might be worth a look as those are the two that greg Canavan recommended diverting funds to after selling EVN. Grounds are relative cheapness chartwise but offset by higher risk.
GOR does seem safest but the Quarterly isn't out yet explaining the poor update; in particular the unexpected labour shortage. Not confident in the GOR chart yet either.
For a one shot GDX.AX might be worth considering if it approaches support around $40? I've never held but it is closer to being stable but hasn't the multi-bagger potential.

Holding: NST, RMS, SSR, WAF, RRL, GOR and physical metal account.

@Garpal Gumnut
I'm currently 30% gold and holding:
CEL, EVN, FFM, GDX, NEM, NST, PDI, PMGOLD, SR2, SSR, WAF, Physical PMs.
Most of them are crap and don't fit your bill.
If I did a top three that would fit your criteria it might be:NST, WAF, GDX.

WAF and PDI are in my picks for the 2024 stock comp (huge risk) but if you look at the CTM chart for 2023 you should run away.

Thanks @finicky @divs4ever @anca @Sean K and many others in this thread and via DM for tips in the GOR, NEM and RRL threads, some not recent, of which I've quoted.

My question was what Gold stock Australian based and run on which to have a big bet with an investment time frame of a 2-5 years. However recent price action and developments in some of the Gold stocks has made me put my dacks and trousers back on and I'm out the window to run back home with my stack.

It appears that incompetence in hedging and in capital expenditure and ex, poor workforce management and an atrocious appetite for attracting litigation by some has led to a space which is dangerous for me to enter with a big bet. I had assumed that the steady appreciaton of the $AUD Gold price over the past 5 years would have given me the opportunity to hop on a Gold miner for 2-5 years with the expectation not necessarily of a huge win, but perhaps a moderate one, maybe even with decent divies thrown in.

I had concentrated on stocks that mostly dealt with Australian based operations, management and workforce or even Canada or somewhere I'd go to so's I'd get the fourth Mrs Gumnut a nice watch on my way through border security and RM Williams and the jewellery shops overseas run by the Chinese, Israeli, Middle Eastern and Indian cousins. I also avoided Africa like the plague in my thinking. No more. I will have to reset my thinking on that lazy big bet money I'd laid aside for a Golder.

As Divsie @divs4ever said ...

I used to have the same view as you on Africa , but the 'civilized world' is starting to fray , and suddenly places like Africa PNG aren't the worst places on the map( investing-wise

I might either look at American stocks or an ETF for my big Gold stock bet. I mean with the price of Gold going as it is, PMGOLD was $16 in 2019 for gawds sake and its $31 dollars now. You'd think the miners would have their act together.

Anyways. My rant done and I feel better and glad my stack is a stack and safe.

gg

 

[Sean K]

i don't have a problem with GOR , in fact i hold a few , i just do not think it is at an attractive price yet ( not even for a medium size bite , in my opinion )

i used to have the same view as you on Africa , but the 'civilized world' is starting to fray , and suddenly places like Africa PNG aren't the
worst places on the map( investing-wise )

gold producers in general in Australia are going to face skill shortages and rising costs , in general 'high grade gold translates to difficult to mine ( other-wise 170 years of miners would have already dug it out and sold it ) so you are looking for about 2g a tonne but alluvial or reprocessing tailings dams and waste heaps ( easy digging , no extensive mine shafts )

i know it is mostly a silver play but keep an eye on SVL ( i don't hold ) especially if they delay the underground mining
Man oh man, the Australian Gold mining space as I go through it is a litany of disaster.







Thanks @finicky @divs4ever @anca @Sean K and many others in this thread and via DM for tips in the GOR, NEM and RRL threads, some not recent, of which I've quoted.

My question was what Gold stock Australian based and run on which to have a big bet with an investment time frame of a 2-5 years. However recent price action and developments in some of the Gold stocks has made me put my dacks and trousers back on and I'm out the window to run back home with my stack.

It appears that incompetence in hedging and in capital expenditure and ex, poor workforce management and an atrocious appetite for attracting litigation by some has led to a space which is dangerous for me to enter with a big bet. I had assumed that the steady appreciaton of the $AUD Gold price over the past 5 years would have given me the opportunity to hop on a Gold miner for 2-5 years with the expectation not necessarily of a huge win, but perhaps a moderate one, maybe even with decent divies thrown in.

I had concentrated on stocks that mostly dealt with Australian based operations, management and workforce or even Canada or somewhere I'd go to so's I'd get the fourth Mrs Gumnut a nice watch on my way through border security and RM Williams and the jewellery shops overseas run by the Chinese, Israeli, Middle Eastern and Indian cousins. I also avoided Africa like the plague in my thinking. No more. I will have to reset my thinking on that lazy big bet money I'd laid aside for a Golder.

As Divsie @divs4ever said ...



I might either look at American stocks or an ETF for my big Gold stock bet. I mean with the price of Gold going as it is, PMGOLD was $16 in 2019 for gawds sake and its $31 dollars now. You'd think the miners would have their act together.

Anyways. My rant done and I feel better and glad my stack is a stack and safe.

gg

I've started buying animals other than Kangaroos. New safe installed.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

V.nice @Sean K ... V.nice indeed.

I might stick with more PMGOLD for my SMSF and the sweet animals for myself. I'll leave this crazy world to its own devices for a while.

gg

 

[divs4ever]

i have an (small ) order in @ $1.20 for GOR

i will not be heart-broken if i miss out

but gee gold miners seem to have found some problems , expanded too fast ( not enough cash/staff ) for some

others beset with weather events ( which surely they should have made some contingencies for ) seismic/geological events are harder to see coming

one might ask if you need to research 'top down' micro-analyze the highest levels of management and then move lower ( some managements don't seem to be able to make a profit even it they stole the gold bars from Perth Mint )

expect poor profits to be blamed on accelerating a 'zero-carbon'/automation agenda which is a wash because once they switch to CBDCs , who is going to use money ( or PMs ) for major transactions

you can't believe federal budgets now , imagine with no paper records to verify anything

 

[rcw1]

Good evening
Gold is good and gold miners are good 10.00pm Thursday 1 February 2024...

For @Garpal Gumnut :

... My question was what Gold stock Australian based and run on which to have a big bet with an investment time frame of a 2-5 years. However recent price action and developments in some of the Gold stocks has made me put my dacks and trousers back on and I'm out the window to run back home with my stack.

...

Price Chart 3-year comparison most interesting representation:

A change for the better triggered after achieving $2.50 bottom in mid 2022.
$5 mark not penetrated since April 2023 although good penetration through that $5 leader occurred in January 2023.

Latest 1/4erly and exploration update a pretty good read. rcw1 likes it. Have for a while now.
Not holding have traded.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Good evening
Gold is good and gold miners are good 10.00pm Thursday 1 February 2024...

For @Garpal Gumnut :

Price Chart 3-year comparison most interesting representation:
View attachment 170000
A change for the better triggered after achieving $2.50 bottom in mid 2022.
$5 mark not penetrated since April 2023 although good penetration through that $5 leader occurred in January 2023.

Latest 1/4erly and exploration update a pretty good read. rcw1 likes it. Have for a while now.
Not holding have traded.

View attachment 170002

Thanks @rcw1

GOR looks tasty for a slice of Gold Stock action atm.

But CMM looks tastier.

Both broke up today. Decisions. First world eh.

gg

 

[rcw1]

Thanks @rcw1

GOR looks tasty for a slice of Gold Stock action atm.

But CMM looks tastier.

Both broke up today. Decisions. First world eh.

ggView attachment 172116View attachment 172117

Good evening @Garpal Gumnut
Hoping find you well.

hmmmmm certainly CMM yummier... all time high achieved today (04/03/24); Never got into GOR, not sure why, just the way the cookie crumbled.... but never mind...



EDIT: Change a word or two...

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

gg