Gold Mining Stocks

[finicky]

Gold stocks predominant among the winners yesterday but Gold smashed overnight.

 

[finicky]

Well surely today we'll get a response in gold stocks? HUI and XAU indices up a couple of percent overnight and we get the usual tailwind of the AUD with our gold price being up more than double the US bump.

 

[finicky]

Nope - once again, not much of a response at all. Although AUD gold price did pull back sharply before our open.

 

[finicky]

At last a decent response to the AUD gold price. My miners did ok but it was a few unproductive explorers that outperformed in my p/f:
BMR, VMC, NXM - not recommendations.

 

[TimeISmoney]

This is my watch list, most of them seem to be doing well.

DYOR

 

[Sean K]

Since the GDX and GDXJ started to catch up to the proportional rise in POG you almost could have thrown a dart at the RIH gold board and made 40% without blinking. Well done to anyone picking the base of POG and potential rise in the stocks that lagged for some time.

 

[houtman]

Since the GDX and GDXJ started to catch up to the proportional rise in POG you almost could have thrown a dart at the RIH gold board and made 40% without blinking. Well done to anyone picking the base of POG and potential rise in the stocks that lagged for some time.

Which time frame are you using @Sean K?

Just had a play with Tradingview, starting point made a big difference to % between GDX, GDXJ and gold price.

Although I can understand the markets reluctance to get carried away with the junior Goldies, they have quite the reputation for destroying wealth in both good times and bad.

 

[Sean K]

Which time frame are you using @Sean K?

Just had a play with Tradingview, starting point made a big difference to % between GDX, GDXJ and gold price.

Although I can understand the markets reluctance to get carried away with the junior Goldies, they have quite the reputation for destroying wealth in both good times and bad.

It does depend on where you put the zero in the timeline. GLD is the green line on this.



GLD to GDX




Six monthly.

So, Maybe better throwing darts at the GLD!




So, it looks like only the last 2 months were better for dart throwing.

 

[mullokintyre]

I can sense a bit of a top forming in gold, and having made some very nice profits out of s(some) gold stocks, will be looking to sell half of my holdings in (some) stocks.
Just hoping to hang on till quarterly reporting season is largely done.
With the average gold price about USD 200 higher for the quarter just completed, already good cash flow will only have got better, so we should see some serious free cash flow, which I expect will give a boost to gold stock SP's.
Mick

 

[Sean K]

I can sense a bit of a top forming in gold, and having made some very nice profits out of s(some) gold stocks, will be looking to sell half of my holdings in (some) stocks.
Just hoping to hang on till quarterly reporting season is largely done.
With the average gold price about USD 200 higher for the quarter just completed, already good cash flow will only have got better, so we should see some serious free cash flow, which I expect will give a boost to gold stock SP's.
Mick

Reporting for this quarter and last for the unhedged should be very nice.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I don't know @Sean K . I'm still expecting a reasonable retracement in the POG and the unhedged gold stocks are going to get hammered.

gg

 

[Sean K]

I don't know @Sean K . I'm still expecting a reasonable retracement in the POG and the unhedged gold stocks are going to get hammered.

gg

Waiting as well. These will all be affected by the general market that may or may not have caught the bottom of this correction.

 

[divs4ever]

I don't know @Sean K . I'm still expecting a reasonable retracement in the POG and the unhedged gold stocks are going to get hammered.

gg

well a major liquidity event should be a scenario which should be planned for ( and half-expected )

but would unhedged gold stocks get hammered ( more than the rest of the market )

unless you see a scenario when gold becomes 'the new lead ' i can't see an argument against gold stocks that are debt-free and making a profit .. sure capex would be delayed/slashed and divs would be suspended , a profitable company will have options ( including accepting take-over bids )

 

[divs4ever]

and FIFW gold bullion is an acceptable asset under Basel III which would encourage some banks to hold it as 'a liquid asset '

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

On the New York markets tonight the $AUD and Gold are the only 2 entities on my watchlist that are up. GDX is down slightly 0.17%.

It is a bit weird that the miners have not gone ballistic yet. I was going to commit some lazy moolah to GDX but have elected to hold off presently. I guess the big guys must see more risk from tariffs in the miners OR gold's parabolic moves are causing them indigestion.

Tomorrow our time will tell. Posted 10.32 pm AEST. Because I use a VPN I never know at this time of night at what time anyone has posted.

gg

 

[finicky]

FWIW I feel he's right about this - i.e that this is not the beginning of the end, it's an interim top. Patience required. The thrills and spills might be over for a while but the sector should take off agai without us having to wait years - more like months, if at all. Meanwhile, as he implies, we might be presented with opportunities that had looked like they'd passed us by. Someone else I'd like to give credit to is Greg Canavan, who late last week told his subscribers to sell Northern Star (NST), not because it's crap but because it no longer offered the best reward for risk and anyway the whole sector was overheated.

From TheDailyGold [my bold) :

"In TheDailyGold Premium on Sunday I wrote to subscribers:

I continue to think the precious metals sector is approaching an interim peak......

The interim peak is important because then we can be on alert for an initial selloff and buying opportunity. That first selloff will be the best buying opportunity. Capital has only started to shift into precious metals and there is a very long way to go as our charts showed in the past few updates. This is only comparable to the early 1970s and early 2000s.

Tuesday's bearish reversal in Gold has confirmed the peak is in.

The next few months could be your last chance to buy some of the highest quality juniors at a reasonable price"

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I agree @finicky . Nobody is using AI except the free ones, the data centres are on hold, the GDP decreases as the debt increases. I'm not selling my gold, I may look at some miners in your scenario.

I've enough cash to keep me happy and content.

gg

 

[Dona Ferentes]

FWIW I feel he's right about this - i.e ..

who's he?

 

[finicky]

@Dona Ferentes
Jordan Roy-Bryne: owner and writer at

The Daily Gold

Your Source for Everything Gold

thedailygold.com

Also can be found on youtube. Specialises in juniour gold and silver stocks.
Sends out the occasional free newsletter.