Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

GNC - Graincorp Limited

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Country Lad said:
“This positive outlook is driving an increase in fourth quarter activity and supporting export volumes, forward contracted grain sales and supply chain margins.”

I suppose the medium and maybe the longer term outlook would depend on their forward sales and pricing. All very well to have strong harvests and plenty of volume but their results will depend on how they are selling that volume.

I know it is pedantic, but isn't the outlook driven by the increased activity instead of the way they have it.
Click to expand...

No I think they have it worded right mate.

Most commodity business like grains or energy or industrial metals is driven by the forward/futures curve. Positive outlook == better forward prices == incentive to turn the tap on.
 
for the coming month 's competition my selection is GNC ,

earlier this month i was caught between GNC , UMG , and CGC ( i hold none of those three stocks )

CGC had a big jump today leaving me thinking in is liable to run out of puff , by the end of November ( so i eliminated that one first )

UMG would have been my pick if i thought times were going to get REALLY tough in November/December ( but still remains on my watch-list )

so GNC it is , currently facing weather related , and cost-related headwinds , and 'smart money ' rushing into battery related stocks , which MIGHT leave be an acceptable entry price , and is liable to get some support from the ' stocking stuffers ' leading up to Christmas

a gain during the month ( of November) would be good enough for me whether i buy the shares or not

i was tempted to select MQG but have no intention of adding to my existing holding at prices above $30 ( and so ruins my motive of being in the competition . keeping tabs on shares i am looking to buy , at a price )
 

Russia Suspends Participation In Ukraine Grain Deal After "Massive" Drone Attack On Black Sea Fleet​


Russia Suspends Participation In Ukraine Grain Deal After "Massive" Drone Attack On Black Sea Fleet | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com

CURSES .. is liable to spike the share price , before the start of next months comp.

i was at a presentation of shareholders earlier this week

and tried to describe to one lady that LUCK was my super-power ( and not only in investing )

TAKE CARE this might really rattle the markets

( can i get some GNC at $7.50 in the coming week ?? )
 
With the asking price of farm land foiling my want to become part of the landed gentry, I’ll have to settle with being a cost.

GNC have fallen from $9 to $7, long range weather forecasts and a lower grain price look to be the reasons.

They currently have about $200m cash, with the proceeds from the UMG takeover soon providing another ~$120m.
Gotta have cash in this environment.

Just looking to diversify dividend stream with this one.

Any opposing views gratefully accepted.
 
houtman said:
With the asking price of farm land foiling my want to become part of the landed gentry, I’ll have to settle with being a cost.

GNC have fallen from $9 to $7, long range weather forecasts and a lower grain price look to be the reasons.

They currently have about $200m cash, with the proceeds from the UMG takeover soon providing another ~$120m.
Gotta have cash in this environment.

Just looking to diversify dividend stream with this one.

Any opposing views gratefully accepted.
Click to expand...
... sorry , i bought extra this morning in the opening auction

but plenty of reasons to be careful as well

there may be an international trade war with certain nations

is that good or bad for GNC also rising costs on the horizon

i am nibbling away as a 'safe haven ' ( humans have to eat )

which relies on FIRB/ACCC to resist take-over deals

cheers
 
eskys said:
I've been procrastinating on GNC...price of wheat....

Wheat
USd/Bu		578.392.640.46% -4.24% -9.55% -34.28% 14:46
Click to expand...
keep procrastinating @eskys , it does not look like wheat prices are going to rise any time soon.
Russia has had another bumper wheat harvest, and despite shutting down the grain exports from Ukraine, the price of wheat is still falling.
Was at a a local Ag meeting Friday Night and there seemd to be plenty of grain still in OZ waiting to be exported according to some there.

Things may not be so rosy in the mediium to longer term as the potential El Nino likely to reduce yields in the Southern hemisphere producers. though by looking at this chart below, in most instances there has been a drop in prices prior to the declaration of el nino with a corresponding up tick once the el Nino switches to nuetral or La Nina.
Mick
1696118906265.png
 

Wheat Prices Record Most Consecutive Quarterly Declines Since GFC Meltdown​


Wheat Prices Record Most Consecutive Quarterly Declines Since GFC Meltdown | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com

i have been taking to opposing stance ( much to the annoyance of some ASF members ) i have been cautiously adding in the slide ( SGLLV as well )

now either the El Nino weather assessment is incorrect or something else is going on here

but please take care
 
GrainCorp delivers outstanding FY23 result GrainCorp Limited

(GrainCorp or the Company) (ASX: GNC) today announces its results for the year ended 30 September 2023 (FY23).
• EBITDA1: $565 million (FY22: $703 million)
• Net Profit After Tax (NPAT): $250 million (FY22: $380 million)
• Return on Invested Capital (ROIC2): 18.6% (FY22: 27.9%)
• FY23 dividends3: 54 cents per share (FY22: 54 cps)
• On-market share buy-back of $50 million announced Commenting on the FY23 result, GrainCorp’s Managing Director & CEO Robert Spurway said: “GrainCorp delivered another outstanding result in FY23, with both Agribusiness and Processing business segments contributing positively to our performance.
“The result clearly reflects our disciplined focus on operational performance, the capability of our people and the momentum we continue to build. “GrainCorp continues to progress its strategy of strengthening the core of the business through targeted investment into our value chain.
“We again improved the performance of our oilseed crush, increasing throughput volume for the fifth successive year.
“We also further optimised our grains sites to provide improved service for growers, reducing truck turnaround times and achieving a significantly improved net promoter score.
“Our exceptional balance sheet, with core cash of $349 million, also provides us with the flexibility to return capital to shareholders, while continuing to pursue growth opportunities.
“Pleasingly, we continued to integrate sustainable practices into our commercial, financial and operational activities.
“Our sustainability achievements, ongoing initiatives and key targets are discussed in detail in our FY23 Sustainability Report, released today.
” Agribusiness EBITDA was $401 million (FY22: $624 million) with strong contributions across ECA, International and Feeds, Fats and Oils (FFO). Total grain handled was 37.4mmt (FY22: 41.1mmt), supported by large carry-in from FY22 of 4.9mmt. Volumes and margins were down from the record level seen in FY22, although remained above historical averages. 1
EBITDA is a non-IFRS measure representing earnings before net interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation 2 ROIC is a non-IFRS measure and is defined as Group net profit after tax less interest expense (after tax) associated with core debt / average net debt (excluding commodity inventory funding)
+ average total equity 3 FY23 dividends of 54cps comprises of FY23 interim dividend paid (24cps)
+ FY23 final dividend declared (30cps)
GrainCorp continued to benefit from improved utilisation of port assets, including increasing bulk material volumes to 3.3mmt (FY22: 2.5mmt)
. Our International business once again saw high global demand for Australian grain, driven by elevated local production volumes and uncertainty of northern hemisphere supply. International contracted grain sales of 3.7mmt (FY22: 3.5mmt) were underpinned by large volumes from Western Australia.
FFO achieved a record result with exceptional performance across all areas, supported by high demand for renewable feedstocks and supplementary feeds.
Processing EBITDA was $153 million (FY22: $127 million), with record crush volumes and margins. “The exceptional result achieved in Processing was driven by our oilseeds business, as disciplined investment and the integration of advanced analytics supported record crush volumes of nearly 500kmt,” Mr Spurway said. Favourable oilseed margins were bolstered by a large ECA canola crop, sustained global demand for vegetable oils driven by nutrition and Agri-energy sectors, and supply constraints in other key growing regions.
Balance Sheet and Capital Management GrainCorp’s balance sheet is in an excellent position with a core cash balance of $349 million4 at 30 September 2023 (FY22: $177 million).
Net debt at 30 September 2023 was $373 million (FY22: $540 million). In addition, gross proceeds of $127 million from the acquisition of UMG by Malteries Soufflet were paid to GrainCorp on 15 November 2023.
GrainCorp’s Board of Directors has declared a total final dividend of 30cps, comprising:
• a final ordinary dividend of 14cps, fully franked (FY22: 14cps); and
• a final special dividend of 16cps, fully franked (FY22: 16cps)
Both the final ordinary and final special dividends will be paid on 14 December 2023 to ordinary shareholders at a record date of 30 November 2023 (in respect of both dividends).
In addition, GrainCorp has also announced an on-market share buy-back of up to $50 million.

Update on Strategic Priorities

“GrainCorp is delivering on its strategic priorities of strengthening the core of the business while exploring targeted growth opportunities,” Mr Spurway said. Animal Nutrition acquisition “We continued our focus of disciplined growth, including the announced acquisition5 of XF Australia (which trades as Performance Feeds and Nutrition Services Associates), a provider of feed supplement products and nutritional consulting services to Australia’s feedlot and grazing sector, for $35 million.
“This acquisition expands our offering to customers by enhancing our capabilities in Animal Nutrition.” Oilseed crush expansion GrainCorp took positive steps to identify opportunities for an expansion of its oilseed crush capacity, including identifying Western Australia as a preferred location for a new plant, with an approximate capacity of 750KMT to 1MMT. 4 Core cash / (debt) refers to net debt less commodity inventory 5 Acquisition subject to conditions precedent, including ACCC consideration. ASX announcement here.
“The assessment of new crush capacity is an ongoing priority, as we continue our positive engagement with both upstream and downstream partners.”
“This week, we also announced a renewable fuels initiative with IFM Investors to explore opportunities to help decarbonise the aviation sector.” “Agricultural feedstocks will play a critical role in the country’s transition to renewable fuels and a lower carbon economy, and GrainCorp is well positioned strategically to help facilitate this change,” Mr Spurway said. Outlook “The ECA winter crop harvest commenced earlier than last year and is drawing to a close in Queensland, while NSW and Victoria harvests are underway,” Mr Spurway said. “We’ve seen drier conditions in the northern half of ECA, but overall quality across all commodities has been excellent and harvest is now progressing well in key southern growing regions.
“Looking ahead, we expect crush volumes to remain high, whilst margins are anticipated to moderate from FY23 levels.
“Our current balance sheet provides us with flexibility to pursue our strategic priorities by exploring organic and inorganic growth opportunities, investing in our core business to drive better returns on assets, and continuing to optimise total shareholder returns.

” This announcement is authorised by the GrainCorp Board.


i hold GNC

hmmm!

will this be a top-up opportunity ??
 
ASX Announcement |

GrainCorp provides FY24 earnings guidance

GrainCorp Limited (GrainCorp or the Company) (ASX: GNC) today announces it expects to report FY24

Underlying EBITDA1 in the range of $270–$310 million (FY23: $565 million)
and FY24 Underlying NPAT2 of $65–$95 million (FY23: $250 million).
Earnings guidance excludes systems transformation costs, and is subject to a range of market variables, as outlined at the conclusion of this statement.
Managing Director and CEO Robert Spurway said the guidance reflects the normalisation of East Coast Australia (ECA) growing conditions.
“In FY24, we are seeing a return to more normalised crop volumes and a moderation of margins from historically high levels across our business.
ABARES is currently estimating a 2023/24 ECA winter crop of 21.7mmt3 , in line with the 10- year average of 21.6mmt. GrainCorp’s receivals year-to-date totals 8.5mmt 4,5 (February 2023: 11.9mmt) were also supported by an opening GrainCorp carry-in position of 3.9mmt.6 “It was pleasing to see several of GrainCorp’s up-country sites in Victoria achieve new grain receival records over the harvest period.
This once again demonstrates the strength of the network and the capability of our people,” Mr Spurway said. “Notwithstanding this, we acknowledge some areas faced dry conditions in the northern half of New South Wales, and growers will be pleased to see recent weather conditions have improved the soil moisture profile across much of the ECA.
“These conditions have boosted the sorghum crop harvest prospects, as well as planting conditions for the 2024-25 winter crop harvest.”
ABARES has forecasted an ECA Sorghum crop of 1.5mmt7 , in line with the 10-year historical average. GrainCorp expects receivals of 10.0-11.0mmt in FY24 (FY23: 13.9mmt) and exports of 4.5-5.5mmt8 (FY23: 8.3mmt).
Year-to-date exports are 1.7mmt9 (February 2023: 3.0mmt). “In our Nutrition and Energy businesses, we expect to see further incremental improvements in our oilseed crush volumes through extracting efficiencies from our processing facilities, while crush margins have moderated from FY23 levels.
1 Underlying EBITDA is a non-IFRS measure representing earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation excluding significant items
2 Underlying NPAT = Net profit after tax excluding significant items
3 ABARES Crop Report – December 2023
4 Grain received up-country and direct-to-port from 1 October 2023
5 As at GrainCorp’s Annual General Meeting on 14 February 2024
6 GrainCorp carry-in on 1 October 2023
7 ABARES Crop Report – December 2023
8 Grain exports include bulk and container exports
9 As at GrainCorp’s Annual General Meeting on 14 February 2024

In relation to other key initiatives, Mr Spurway noted: “We continue to progress our work to build sustainable fuel production capability in Australia, including through our recently announced collaboration with IFM Investors.
“The development of a domestic biofuels industry presents an exciting opportunity for Australian growers, who produce excess supply of valuable feedstocks like canola for crop-based oils.
“As a leading biofuel feedstock supplier, GrainCorp is briefing the Federal Government on the role that agriculture can play and supporting policy development in respect of onshore sustainable fuel refining capability for the aviation sector.
“We also continue to progress our proposed new crush facility in Western Australia, working closely with supply chain participants and stakeholders.
“Western Australia will play an important role in Australia’s journey to decarbonisation, and GrainCorp is well positioned to drive the development of this new domestic market.
“Separately, we have embarked on a business and systems transformation program to rationalise our internal systems and create an integrated platform that will unlock efficiencies in how we operate as a business.
The initial design phase is expected to be completed in the coming months, and we anticipate first half total spend on the program to be $10m- $12m.
The finalisation and approval of the business/benefits case is expected to occur early in the second half.
“The $50 million share buy-back that we announced at our FY23 results is expected to commence in the second half of the current financial year, following the peak funding cycle.
“We will continue to demonstrate disciplined capital management as we assess organic and inorganic growth opportunities against returning capital to shareholders.
” GrainCorp’s FY24 guidance remains subject to a range of variables, including:
• Second half grain volumes, including sorghum receivals;
• Timing and volume of grain exports;
• Supply chain margins;
• Oilseed crush margins; and
• New season opportunities in Q4.
The GrainCorp Annual General Meeting for FY23 will be held on 14 February 2024 at 10am AEDT.

i hold GNC

i doubt this will deliver a top up opportunity after recent share price rises

( looking for sub $6 if i can )

This announcement is authorised by the GrainCorp Board.
 
divs4ever said:
“We will continue to demonstrate disciplined capital management as we assess organic and inorganic growth opportunities against returning capital to shareholders.
” GrainCorp’s FY24 guidance remains subject to a range of variables, including:
Click to expand...
Bolds mine.
Those pesky shareholders.

I dumped these this morning.

Made a small profit along with the 30cf/f divie but should have been better.

Good thing it wasn't a drought.

Anyway, the search for solid dividend payers continues.
 
houtman said:
Bolds mine.
Those pesky shareholders.

I dumped these this morning.

Made a small profit along with the 30cf/f divie but should have been better.

Good thing it wasn't a drought.

Anyway, the search for solid dividend payers continues.
Click to expand...
Yea, its kinda hard to swallow.
I was at a earlier this week where one of the guests was the boss at the closest Graincorp terminal.
He said that the past year had turned out worse than they anticipated as the crops approached harvest, but was much better thn the revised estimates as the rains fell just as harvest (in Victoria that is) had just started.
Despite the rain, he said that 8 terminals in Vic had received record grain deliveries, and for Victoria at least, it was the second highest crop on record.
I think the money has been made in GNC by now.
Mick
 
houtman said:
Bolds mine.
Those pesky shareholders.

I dumped these this morning.

Made a small profit along with the 30cf/f divie but should have been better.

Good thing it wasn't a drought.

Anyway, the search for solid dividend payers continues.
Click to expand...
softened my attitude a little and threw in an order for GNC @ $6.25 ( for extras )

this is always a risk with ag. stocks ( droughts , too )

but where do you park your cash , in tumultuous world ( in the hope of some returns )

the solid div. payer bit is a big task , Oz is trying to export all manufacturing overseas , wreck the property market , get super funds to waste money on unicorn f@rts , tax miners to death , and lure the public into irreconcilable debt ( so retail has to be in big trouble as well

nice to see you made a profit , good for you
 
divs4ever said:
but where do you park your cash , in tumultuous world ( in the hope of some returns )

the solid div. payer bit is a big task
Click to expand...
Hard to know, I'm about 40% cash atm and happy to sell anything that disappoints, but hard to find replacements.

I'm 1/2 way through filling out my Global Markets Trading application, see where that leads.
 
houtman said:
but hard to find replacements.
Click to expand...
i absolutely agree , and that is why i haven't cashed in more winners ( and losers ) than i probably should have ,
i have some reserve cash and probably should have loaded up on BEAR and BBOZ , recently , but chose not to , fearing governments will 'pick winners' once again during a meltdown
 

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