Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

GNC - Graincorp Limited

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this week is down down down for GNC, a bit unexpected as agri shares are more defensive usually..no announcement I am aware off, I am out with a modest profit after a 5% fall from recent top
 
fallen back from 6.77 high to low 6.28.
Will definitely buy back in if it gets below 6.15.
Mainstream media now getting on the bandwagon.
from ABC News
The latest grains cropping forecast from Rabobank predicts the current winter crop will hit just under 53 million tonnes, just slightly off 2020's highs.
  • Winter grain crops are predicted to hit just under 53 million tonnes
  • Western Australia was set to have a record year for production
  • While grain crop yields are slightly down on last year, it comes amid high commodity prices

The large crop would be 5 per cent less than last year but more than 25 per cent above the five-year average.

Western Australia though is predicted to achieve a record harvest with an 18 per cent increase on the previous year.

Queensland will also increase 18 per cent on last year's crops, but New South Wales, Victoria, and South Australia will all be down.
NSW production is forecast to drop 14 per cent with dry areas in the Riverina and north-west, and waterlogging in the central west.

Victoria is forecast to fall 24 per cent with dry conditions in the western cropping region and the Mallee.
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Was over at Casterton and Rainbow area last week.
Was a bit surprised at how small the crops were (apart from chick peas and canola , both of which looked pretty good).
Not quite to the level last year but still a bumper crop.
And prices are higher than last year as well.
Mick
 
Graincorp handled 34.4 million tonnes of grain in 2021, just above the 33.4 million tonnes it handled in 2017. But four years ago, the group only produced EBIT of $127 million, compared with $331 million in 2021.

Although CEO Robert Spurway has pulled costs out of the businesses, he is also invested to improve efficiency across the supply chain, from the amount of time it takes to turn trucks around at the farm gate to improved storage at high demand locations.

Spurway says the business is better placed than ever to weather the inherent cyclicality of the industry and he has initiatives in place that will add another $40 million EBITDA by 2024. This will come from further cost cutting but also greater utilisation of the Graincorp supply chain; repurposing port infrastructure to handle cement for example, as well as growth opportunities in handling wood pellets, wood chips and mineral sands.

While bumper grain crops provide a massive tailwind, there have been challenges in the form of labour shortages (which are particularly acute in regional areas) and supply chain issues.

But thanks to advanced planning, Spurway has dodged both. Having seen the bumper crop coming, he got in early last year to hire 3000 harvest casuals, emphasising local jobs for local people in this employment drive and structuring this temporary workforce in such a way that he could limit the need to move workers across borders. For the harvest that started a few weeks ago, Graincorp got 70 per cent of these casuals back - an impressive result given the war for workers.

Supply chains issues have been relatively minor, in part because 95 per cent of the Graincorp business is bulk charters, not the container ships that have been most affected by the disruptions seen at ports around the world. Spurway says that of the 115 ships charted, just two suffered minor charges because of delays.

"In my years of experience in global supply chains, it is an exceptional result at any time, particularly in a year like we've seen."
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Dona Ferentes said:
Graincorp handled 34.4 million tonnes of grain in 2021, just above the 33.4 million tonnes it handled in 2017. But four years ago, the group only produced EBIT of $127 million, compared with $331 million in 2021.

Although CEO Robert Spurway has pulled costs out of the businesses, he is also invested to improve efficiency across the supply chain, from the amount of time it takes to turn trucks around at the farm gate to improved storage at high demand locations.

Spurway says the business is better placed than ever to weather the inherent cyclicality of the industry and he has initiatives in place that will add another $40 million EBITDA by 2024. This will come from further cost cutting but also greater utilisation of the Graincorp supply chain; repurposing port infrastructure to handle cement for example, as well as growth opportunities in handling wood pellets, wood chips and mineral sands.

While bumper grain crops provide a massive tailwind, there have been challenges in the form of labour shortages (which are particularly acute in regional areas) and supply chain issues.

But thanks to advanced planning, Spurway has dodged both. Having seen the bumper crop coming, he got in early last year to hire 3000 harvest casuals, emphasising local jobs for local people in this employment drive and structuring this temporary workforce in such a way that he could limit the need to move workers across borders. For the harvest that started a few weeks ago, Graincorp got 70 per cent of these casuals back - an impressive result given the war for workers.

Supply chains issues have been relatively minor, in part because 95 per cent of the Graincorp business is bulk charters, not the container ships that have been most affected by the disruptions seen at ports around the world. Spurway says that of the 115 ships charted, just two suffered minor charges because of delays.
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Their only potential problem I can see is the shortage of drivers for the trucks.
Most of the problems seems to be with the long haul requirements, I know my brother in law has retired from interstate work because of the difficulties in border crossing requirements.
I have done a little driving this season for mates doing hay and silage mainly because the regulars are not available for various reasons. They all say there is a general shortage or workers in regional areas at most levels.
Mick
 
Listening to the OPS manager for GNC on the Country Hour this afternoon.
Says the wet weather has seriously curtailed the start of the grain season.
In Victoria at least, they are 50% down on the amount of grain bought in compared to the same time last year.
Some areas have not even started.
The worry now is if the rain keeps hanging around and the wether warms up , grain sprouting as well as black mildew on barely will become an issue.
Everyone is hoping for no more rain, but cool windy days to keep the conditions ok for the grain before it gets harvested.
After i sold out at 6.77, was looking to get back in around 6.15, but never got that low, so still out of it.
Will keep my powder dry on GNC for a little while yet.
Mick
 
The Triangle said:
This is still overvalued. The demerger presentations with maltcorp are complete with a lot of corporate doublespeak. Both separately are going to be too small to just sit there and pay dividends consistently at a high return. With the asset sales, I think we'll see the corporate costs relative to market cap jump up.

Growth according to their own presentations is at the bottom of the priority tree - so why invest in either one? Even at a 70% payout, I doubt there would be much more than 2.5% if you look at the last 6 years. And if you look at the last 6 years - there has been nothing but sideways movement. If I had to pick I would prefer maltcorp - should be interesting to see where it trades next month.
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Well, only took 18 months and she's back to a good level. Glad I dumped the shares as If I had held through the demerger I probably would have dumped out all the GrainCorp and loaded up on united malt (which has gone nowhere!).

mullokintyre said:
Listening to the OPS manager for GNC on the Country Hour this afternoon.
Says the wet weather has seriously curtailed the start of the grain season.
In Victoria at least, they are 50% down on the amount of grain bought in compared to the same time last year.
Some areas have not even started.
The worry now is if the rain keeps hanging around and the wether warms up , grain sprouting as well as black mildew on barely will become an issue.
Everyone is hoping for no more rain, but cool windy days to keep the conditions ok for the grain before it gets harvested.
After i sold out at 6.77, was looking to get back in around 6.15, but never got that low, so still out of it.
Will keep my powder dry on GNC for a little while yet.
Mick
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Got to love agricultural shares. A proper cyclic industry! There's always a time to get back in. And out. And in. etc. etc.
 
From yesterdays Australian
GrainCorp says it expects its full year net profit to soar by as much as 100 per cent following a bumper crop, defying pandemic-fuelled labour shortages and supply chain disruptions that have plagued Australia’s food bowl.
The profit upgrade made it the best performer on the ASX on Monday, its shares surging by 13 per cent to $8.50 before easing to close at $8.10.

Chief executive Robert Spurway said the company overcame labour shortages and supply chain disruptions from Covid-19 and floods to process the harvest, which “broke multiple site receival records across our network”.
“The biggest challenge in the end for growers was the wet weather and the interrupted harvest from that point of view. Labour supply was certainly a challenge. But from our perspective, we planned for that very early and we were able to get the complement of workers that we needed,” Mr Spurway said.

The company now expects its full-year earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation to be $480m to $540m. This compares with $331m in 2021.

Meanwhile it has forecast underlying net profit of $235m to $280m versus $139m last year.
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The only spoiler on the horizon is the increasing practice by some of the bigger grain users to bypass the Bulk Grain handlers and deal directly with the farmers as CUB do with barley growers around the Tweed River area. But is suh a small market compared to the big picture, it will probably not phase the bulk storage players.
Mick
 
From ABC News
India has dropped its import tariff on lentils paving the way for Australian farmers to cash in after a bumper harvest.

Key points:​

  • India has removed an 11 per cent import tariff on lentils
  • The tariff is removed effective immediately
  • Before the tariff, India imported more than $900 million of lentils

New Delhi announced it would reduce the 11 per cent tariff to zero over the weekend, effective immediately.

A prohibitive 66 per cent tariff on chickpeas remains.

India applied tariffs of 33 per cent to both lentils and chickpeas in 2017, cutting the lentil tax to 11 per cent in 2020.

According to the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade before the introduction of the tariff India was the world's largest customer for lentils and the trade was valued at close to $1 billion.

Grain Producers Australia spokesman Andrew Wiedemann said it was great news for farmers to have the lentil tariff "finally back to ground zero".
Andrew Weidemann, of Grain Producers Australia, says India's decision to remove the tariff will be reviewed later in the year.
ndia's decision to drop the tariffs follows just days after Australia's trade minister Dan Tehan travelled to India as part of negotiations for a free trade agreement.

Grain Growers chief executive Dave McKeon hoped the negotiations would create an opportunity to better conditions for Australian farmers.

"It's great to see an outcome on lentils, fingers cross for chickpeas," Mr McKeon said.

"We need to have an innovative and forward-focused approach to avoid unnecessary trade barriers into the future."

Grain Growers had been seeking to have a grain annex included in the trade agreement, specifically outlining trade arrangements for the grain trade with India.

According to the grower group, despite India accounting for the world's second-largest population, it currently imports less than 2 per cent of Australia's grain harvest.
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If Australia can increase that measly 2% to something like 7 or 10%, it would be a huge boost for OZ.
We need to swap Chinese hegemony for something a kittle less one sided, and India would fit that bill nicely.
Mick
 
Punching new highs ?
As long as Russia is on the nose, GNC should fare well.
Was faring well long before Russia thing though...
One of those stocks ... Makes me scratch my head, why do I constantly reach for the shooting stars? ?
Weekly and monthly charts.

Screenshot_20220408-125039.png

Screenshot_20220408-124433.png
 
mullokintyre said:
At the beginning of April, Canola Futures were sitting around 5.80USD bushel.
By mid July, they were at 9.12 USD a bushel. They have stayed in a narrow band around 9.00USD a bushel.

Just to show how risky farming is, about 3 months ago, Canada was looking at a record harvest after the biggest Canola planting in years 5 years.
But thanks to drought and hot weather the forecast is for the smallest crop in 9 years, down 25% on last year.
So if the largest producer in the world of Canola cuts 25% of its output, you might expect that to provide some level of support foir canola prices, ...
Click to expand...

Canola on the world market is now worth $1,184.70 CAD per tonne, according to the Canada Price Index, which has almost doubled from about $680 a year ago. Prices in Australia are at all-time highs, exceeding $1,000 a tonne over the past six months.

Australia Oilseeds Federation Chief executive Nick Goddard said he expected prices to remain high due to the tight global supply and a record national harvest of 6.4 million tonnes last year could see Australian farmers earn big money this year.

...... Most recently, the Indonesian government banned the export of palm oil last Friday. Being the world's largest supplier, analysts predict the demand for other oilseeds will rise as a result.

... However, [a farmer] warned, prices would need to remain high to make up for what he described as "exorbitant" input costs.
"The fertiliser has just about doubled in cost. Fuel is costing us an absolute fortune, even the price of canola seed has gone up quite a bit," he said.
Click to expand...
- ABC Rural

........................ and GNC holding above $10 a share
 
Shares in GrainCorp (GNC) jumped yesterday after the company again upgraded earnings guidance for its year to September 2022 results.

The company told the ASX that the new range was $680-$730 million, up a possible $60 million as the company enjoys plentiful supplies, exports and solid prices.

Net after tax profit for the year to September is now estimated to be in the range of $365 to $400 million, up from the previous estimate of $310 to $370 million.

That saw GNC shares close up more than 5% at $8.03, still a long way under the high of $10.86 hit in early May as global wheat prices soared in the aftermath of the confusion caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

GrainCorp CEO Robert Spurway said in Wednesday’s statement that the improved outlook reflects outstanding execution across each of GrainCorp’s business areas and expectations for the east coast Australian (ECA) crop in 2022/23.

1660216629010.png
 
Dona Ferentes said:
Shares in GrainCorp (GNC) jumped yesterday after the company again upgraded earnings guidance for its year to September 2022 results.

The company told the ASX that the new range was $680-$730 million, up a possible $60 million as the company enjoys plentiful supplies, exports and solid prices.

Net after tax profit for the year to September is now estimated to be in the range of $365 to $400 million, up from the previous estimate of $310 to $370 million.

That saw GNC shares close up more than 5% at $8.03, still a long way under the high of $10.86 hit in early May as global wheat prices soared in the aftermath of the confusion caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

GrainCorp CEO Robert Spurway said in Wednesday’s statement that the improved outlook reflects outstanding execution across each of GrainCorp’s business areas and expectations for the east coast Australian (ECA) crop in 2022/23.

View attachment 145245
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Will be very curious to see outcomes over the long term on stocks like this, can higher prices for their product outweigh rising input costs?

i.e. are prices of GNC or SGLLV going up because they are printing money or because ASX participants don't have access to agriculture futures/ETFs?
 
InsvestoBoy said:
Will be very curious to see outcomes over the long term on stocks like this, can higher prices for their product outweigh rising input costs?

i.e. are prices of GNC or SGLLV going up because they are printing money or because ASX participants don't have access to agriculture futures/ETFs?
Click to expand...
i can only speak on my own motives , but have never seriously considered futures or ETFs for exposure to the agricultural sector

GNC has never been mathematically attractive to me , while i hold SGLLV ( bought in November 2021 @ $6.29 ) and it is normally illiquid ( creep upwards but will plummet quickly from time to time)

SGLLV Trade History​

Trade History table
SORTDATE INASCENDINGORDERSORTOPEN $INASCENDINGORDERSORTHIGH $INASCENDINGORDERSORTLOW $INASCENDINGORDERSORTCLOSE $INASCENDINGORDERSORTCHANGE $INASCENDINGORDERSORTCHANGE %INASCENDINGORDERSORTVOLUMEINASCENDINGORDER
11/08/20227.3907.3907.2007.230-0.170-2.301,454
10/08/20227.2007.4007.2007.4000.2002.781,979
09/08/20227.2007.2207.1907.200-0.060-0.8313,193
08/08/20227.2607.4007.2607.2600.0000.004,651
05/08/20227.2207.2607.2157.2600.0100.144,006
04/08/20227.4007.4007.2507.250-0.100-1.362,371
03/08/20227.1507.3507.1507.3500.2002.801,506
02/08/20227.2507.3007.1507.150-0.100-1.381,944
01/08/20227.3507.3507.1807.250-0.100-1.3616,667
29/07/20227.2607.3507.1807.3500.0600.823,402
28/07/20227.2507.3007.1007.290-0.090-1.228,619
27/07/20227.0907.3807.0707.3800.2803.944,241
26/07/20227.0407.1006.9607.1000.0300.428,609
25/07/20226.9607.0706.9407.0700.1201.732,250
22/07/20227.0007.1006.9506.950-0.050-0.71550
21/07/20227.0007.0006.9207.0000.0000.004,335
20/07/20227.0007.0006.9907.0000.0000.004,205
19/07/20227.0007.0006.9107.0000.0000.002,065
18/07/20227.0007.0006.9007.0000.0600.865,338
15/07/20226.9506.9506.9406.940-0.010-0.143,258
14/07/20226.9506.9506.9406.9500.0500.727,025
13/07/20227.0007.0006.9006.900-0.100-1.439,803
12/07/20227.0007.0006.9007.0000.0000.0021,267
11/07/20226.9907.0006.9207.0000.0100.1414,680
08/07/20226.9806.9906.9806.9900.0100.1415,679
07/07/20226.9806.9806.9706.9800.0000.001,048
06/07/20226.8906.9806.8906.9800.1001.458,279
05/07/20227.0007.0006.8806.880-0.120-1.718,676
04/07/20226.9107.0006.9007.0000.0901.308,418
01/07/20226.9206.9906.9106.910-0.010-0.147,793
30/06/20227.0407.0406.9206.920-0.080-1.144,185
29/06/20227.1507.1506.9507.000-0.150-2.1013,772
28/06/20227.5007.5007.1507.150-0.780-9.8431,202
27/06/20227.5007.9307.4507.9300.4405.8756,668
24/06/20227.6007.6007.4907.490-0.070-0.9321,064
23/06/20227.5007.7007.4507.5600.1101.4848,488
22/06/20227.4407.5007.3507.4500.0500.6811,756
21/06/20227.4507.5007.4007.4000.2102.9214,218
20/06/20227.1407.5807.1407.1900.0600.8429,217
17/06/20227.0007.1307.0007.1300.0300.4210,824
16/06/20227.0007.1007.0007.1000.0500.713,950
15/06/20227.1207.1207.0507.050-0.070-0.984,508
14/06/20227.1407.1506.9807.120-0.060-0.8411,794
10/06/20227.1007.2007.1007.1800.1702.437,984
09/06/20227.3307.3307.0107.010-0.270-3.713,617
08/06/20226.9507.2806.9507.2800.3004.3022,108
07/06/20227.0507.0706.9506.980-0.070-0.9914,770
06/06/20227.0207.1606.9707.0500.0000.0024,827
03/06/20227.0507.0507.0007.0500.0100.143,797
02/06/20227.0307.0907.0007.0400.0701.0011,258
01/06/20226.9207.0006.9206.9700.0701.012,922
31/05/20227.1407.1406.9006.900-0.250-3.5016,919
30/05/20227.0007.1506.9907.1500.1502.1433,551
27/05/20226.9307.0006.9307.0000.0701.0115,276
26/05/20226.9106.9406.9006.9300.0300.4311,340
25/05/20226.9006.9306.9006.900-0.010-0.141,170
24/05/20226.8106.9406.8106.9100.1001.473,951
23/05/20226.9006.9106.8106.810-0.090-1.304,171
20/05/20226.8106.9206.8106.9000.0901.322,938
19/05/20226.9006.9006.8106.8100.0400.591,380
18/05/20226.7906.8456.7506.7700.0400.59661
16/05/20226.9006.9006.7306.730-0.060-0.886,753
13/05/20226.8406.8406.7906.790-0.050-0.734,902
12/05/20226.8406.8406.8406.8400.1402.091,000
11/05/20226.7106.7806.7006.700-0.040-0.591,078
10/05/20226.9006.9006.7006.740-0.190-2.743,259
09/05/20226.8006.9306.7006.930-0.010-0.147,488
06/05/20226.8506.9406.6906.940-0.010-0.147,530
05/05/20226.9506.9506.7506.9500.0000.009,836
04/05/20226.9806.9806.8706.950-0.050-0.714,131
03/05/20226.9707.0006.9507.0000.0300.435,532
02/05/20226.8806.9706.8606.9700.0901.3115,794
29/04/20226.8606.8806.8606.8800.0000.007,328
28/04/20226.8806.9406.8806.880-0.010-0.152,289
27/04/20226.8906.8906.8306.8900.0600.888,019
26/04/20226.8706.8706.8306.830-0.070-1.012,770
22/04/20226.9606.9706.9006.9000.0000.007,768
21/04/20226.8806.9006.8506.9000.0200.293,886
20/04/20226.7106.8806.6956.8800.1802.6915,987
19/04/20226.7706.7706.6906.7000.1502.295,008
14/04/20226.7206.7406.5506.550-0.160-2.3846,934
13/04/20226.7706.7706.7106.7100.0100.159,098
12/04/20226.6506.7706.6406.7000.0600.9015,137
11/04/20226.6006.6406.6006.6400.0100.153,610
08/04/20226.6406.6406.5206.6300.1201.842,570
07/04/20226.6006.6006.5106.510-0.090-1.3630,109
06/04/20226.7406.7406.6006.600-0.170-2.5114,607
05/04/20226.6506.7706.6506.770-0.010-0.15764
04/04/20226.7706.7806.6106.780-0.020-0.2912,755
01/04/20226.8006.8106.8006.8000.0000.00159
31/03/20226.5706.8006.5706.8000.1802.721,065
30/03/20226.5906.6306.5706.6200.0300.467,394
29/03/20226.5906.5906.5006.5900.0000.0023,089
28/03/20226.5906.5906.5906.5900.0000.006,008
25/03/20226.5006.5906.5006.5900.0000.006,692
24/03/20226.5906.5906.5006.5900.0000.001,180
23/03/20226.5606.5906.5006.5900.0901.3814,660
22/03/20226.6006.7106.5006.500-0.100-1.5213,809
21/03/20226.6006.6506.5006.6000.0450.692,989
18/03/20226.5406.6006.4806.5550.0150.2310,430
17/03/20226.5506.6006.5406.540-0.010-0.151,954
16/03/20226.5406.6006.5406.550-0.050-0.763,272
15/03/20226.6006.6006.6006.6000.0600.929,276
14/03/20226.5406.5406.5106.540-0.040-0.615,567
11/03/20226.4406.5906.4406.5800.2303.622,139
10/03/20226.4506.4606.3506.350-0.060-0.946,219
09/03/20226.4306.5006.3106.4100.0000.0031,298
08/03/20226.5706.5706.4106.410-0.160-2.449,109
07/03/20226.5706.5906.5706.5700.0000.007,748
04/03/20226.5606.6006.5606.5700.0300.468,815
03/03/20226.5906.5906.5006.540-0.060-0.9122,027
02/03/20226.5906.6006.5906.6000.0300.4614,514
01/03/20226.5906.6406.5706.5700.0000.0013,811
28/02/20226.6006.6406.5206.570-0.030-0.4528,107
25/02/20226.7006.7006.6006.600-0.170-2.5127,555
24/02/20226.8806.8806.7706.770-0.110-1.603,863
23/02/20226.8006.8806.8006.8800.1702.5311,492
22/02/20226.7806.7806.7106.710-0.070-1.035,426
21/02/20226.7806.7806.7806.7800.0000.00531
18/02/20226.7356.7806.7006.7800.0801.199,843
17/02/20226.8906.8906.6806.700-0.190-2.767,355
16/02/20226.8106.8906.7406.8900.0300.449,648
15/02/20226.8506.8606.8506.860-0.030-0.4411,701
14/02/20226.8806.8906.8206.8900.0100.151,710
11/02/20226.8706.8806.8106.8800.0100.1511,108
10/02/20226.8906.8906.8706.870-0.020-0.292,458
09/02/20226.9006.9006.8306.8900.0000.0021,932
08/02/20226.8906.9006.8106.8900.0000.0076,687
07/02/20226.8006.8906.8006.8900.0901.3212,462
04/02/20226.7906.8006.7906.8000.0701.045,678
03/02/20226.8006.8006.7106.730-0.110-1.613,167
02/02/20226.8306.8406.7206.8400.0000.002,858
01/02/20226.6206.8506.6206.8400.2503.79656
31/01/20226.8506.8506.5056.590-0.230-3.3714,857
28/01/20226.7506.8206.6006.8200.0701.044,721
27/01/20226.8006.8206.7506.750-0.050-0.743,283
25/01/20226.8106.8106.7506.800-0.010-0.158,457
24/01/20226.8006.8106.6606.810-0.010-0.1510,311
21/01/20226.8206.8206.7306.820-0.010-0.156,838
20/01/20226.8006.9006.7306.8300.0300.4416,734
19/01/20226.7006.8206.7006.8000.0000.006,871
18/01/20226.8506.8506.8006.800-0.050-0.7311,205
17/01/20226.7806.9006.7806.8500.0701.0324,988
14/01/20226.6806.7806.6006.7800.1101.655,101
13/01/20226.8006.8006.6706.670-0.080-1.1921,158
12/01/20226.8106.8106.7506.750-0.060-0.8812,885
11/01/20226.8506.8506.8006.8100.0100.1513,505
10/01/20226.9006.9006.8006.8000.0000.0031,197
07/01/20226.8006.9206.8006.800-0.020-0.294,672
06/01/20226.9606.9806.8006.820-0.150-2.1535,226
05/01/20226.9306.9806.9306.9700.0500.72279
04/01/20226.9806.9806.9106.920-0.060-0.868,442
31/12/20217.0007.0006.9806.980-0.020-0.29894
30/12/20216.9007.0006.8707.0000.1301.899,739
29/12/20216.6806.9006.6606.8700.1902.8411,184
24/12/20216.6006.6806.6006.6800.2804.386,451
23/12/20216.3906.4006.3906.4000.0300.4720,972
22/12/20216.4006.4006.3206.370-0.030-0.476,847
21/12/20216.3806.6806.3806.4000.0000.004,539
20/12/20216.4806.4806.4006.400-0.020-0.313,935
17/12/20216.4506.4806.4206.4200.0200.3113,360
16/12/20216.1806.4006.1806.4000.2504.0742,888
15/12/20216.1506.1506.1506.150-0.030-0.4916,333
14/12/20216.2006.2006.1706.180-0.020-0.322,602
13/12/20216.1906.2006.1606.2000.0500.813,308
10/12/20216.2006.2006.1506.150-0.050-0.812,415
09/12/20216.2006.2006.1506.2000.0000.0010,222
08/12/20216.2206.2406.1506.200-0.020-0.3216,404
07/12/20216.2406.2406.2206.220-0.020-0.322,726
06/12/20216.2506.2506.2006.240-0.010-0.167,132
03/12/20216.2106.2506.2006.2500.0400.6426,199
02/12/20216.2506.2506.2006.2100.0100.161,342
01/12/20216.2506.2506.2006.200-0.050-0.8017,254
30/11/20216.2506.2506.2006.2500.0000.005,462
29/11/20216.2506.2506.2006.2500.0000.0016,041
26/11/20216.2706.2706.2506.250-0.030-0.4825,908
25/11/20216.3006.3006.2806.280-0.050-0.796,513
24/11/20216.3006.3306.2856.3300.0300.488,709
23/11/20216.3406.3406.3006.300-0.040-0.6317,883
22/11/20216.3506.3506.3406.340-0.010-0.161,990
19/11/20216.3306.3506.3106.3500.0000.0011,497
18/11/20216.3006.3506.3006.3500.0300.471,783
17/11/20216.4006.4006.3006.320-0.010-0.162,367
16/11/20216.3606.3906.3306.330-0.030-0.475,789
15/11/20216.5806.5806.3506.360-0.220-3.3418,862
12/11/20216.5906.5906.5806.580-0.020-0.307
11/11/20216.5506.6006.5506.6000.0500.762
10/11/20216.6006.6006.5506.550-0.050-0.7613
09/11/20216.6256.6506.5506.6000.0500.7621,142
08/11/20216.6506.6506.5506.550-0.100-1.5028,551
05/11/20216.6606.6606.6306.650-0.030-0.459,364
04/11/20216.6806.6806.6806.6800.0200.3084
03/11/20216.7006.7006.6606.6600.0600.913,714
02/11/20216.6606.6606.6006.600-0.065-0.98498
01/11/20216.7006.7006.6006.665-0.035-0.521,165
29/10/20216.7006.7406.7006.700-0.060-0.898,090
28/10/20216.7606.7606.7606.7600.0600.90155
27/10/20216.8206.8406.7006.700-0.100-1.473,498
26/10/20216.8306.8506.7906.8000.0500.7415,478
25/10/20216.6606.8306.6206.7500.1502.2715,485
22/10/20216.6906.6906.6006.6000.0000.006,024
21/10/20216.6006.7006.6006.6000.0500.762,860
20/10/20216.5006.7006.5006.5500.1001.5510,410
19/10/20216.4506.5006.4506.4500.0000.004,164
18/10/20216.4906.5006.4506.4500.0000.002,272
15/10/20216.5006.5006.4506.4500.0000.001,119
14/10/20216.5006.5006.4506.450-0.050-0.775,325
13/10/20216.5006.5006.4506.5000.0500.7819,690
12/10/20216.4506.4606.4406.4500.0801.267,746
11/10/20216.3706.4506.3706.370-0.010-0.1618,179
08/10/20216.3706.4506.3506.3800.0300.4720,473
07/10/20216.3306.3506.3006.3500.0000.006,412
06/10/20216.3506.3606.3506.3500.0300.477,739
05/10/20216.3006.3206.2206.320-0.010-0.162,876
04/10/20216.3306.3306.3006.3300.0100.162,711
01/10/20216.3006.3206.2906.3200.0300.486,706
30/09/20216.2006.3006.2006.2900.0901.451,130
29/09/20216.2006.2006.2006.200-0.100-1.59304
28/09/20216.3006.3006.3006.3000.0000.00636
27/09/20216.2506.3006.1206.3000.0100.1624,425
24/09/20216.1706.2906.1106.2900.1201.947,104
23/09/20216.2006.2006.1706.170-0.020-0.321,489
22/09/20216.1306.1906.1206.190-0.030-0.482,942
21/09/20216.0906.2306.0906.2200.1302.136,247
20/09/20216.1006.1306.0906.0900.0000.004,316
17/09/20216.2406.2406.0906.090-0.010-0.167,823
16/09/20216.2506.2506.1006.100-0.070-1.1319,187
15/09/20216.1706.2606.1706.1700.0100.166,778
14/09/20216.1706.1706.1406.160-0.010-0.161,745
13/09/20216.2006.2306.1006.170-0.040-0.6423,078
10/09/20216.3806.3806.2106.210-0.110-1.748,108
09/09/20216.4306.4306.3006.320-0.130-2.026,419
08/09/20216.4106.4506.4106.450-0.100-1.538,640
07/09/20216.4906.5506.4106.5500.0701.0810,059
06/09/20216.5606.6006.4506.480-0.080-1.226,136
03/09/20216.5006.5606.5006.560-0.040-0.6114,439
02/09/20216.6006.6006.5906.6000.0200.302,807
01/09/20216.5506.5906.5006.5800.0300.463,851
31/08/20216.6006.6006.5006.550-0.030-0.4620,332
30/08/20216.6306.6306.5806.5800.0701.081,191
27/08/20216.5706.5706.5006.510-0.050-0.7630,467
26/08/20216.7006.7006.5606.560-0.120-1.801,524
25/08/20216.5606.6806.5606.6800.0801.211,245
24/08/20216.5906.6006.5906.6000.0000.002,707
23/08/20216.6006.6606.6006.6000.0000.005,228
20/08/20216.6106.6206.6006.600-0.010-0.157,940
19/08/20216.6306.6306.6106.610-0.040-0.602,921
18/08/20216.7006.7006.6106.650-0.050-0.75401
17/08/20216.6906.7006.6106.7000.0701.067,550
16/08/20216.7006.7006.6306.630-0.070-1.045,485
13/08/20216.7006.7006.6906.7000.0100.157,447
12/08/20216.8406.8406.6906.690-0.010-0.1522,233

( buying/selling 100,000 shares here will definitely move the market , most months )

however more obtuse exposure to the agriculture via RFF ( agricultural landlord ) and D2O ( water entitlements ) ( i hold both) is an option for medium term investors

well higher prices is partly guaranteed by falling currencies ( ie real purchasing power , a.k.a. inflation ) which looks like in many cases rising input costs , however extra regulation complexity ( climate policy targets , workplace safety , etc etc ) will flow through as extra costs as well

the agricultural ( and aquaculture ) sector don't have a solid record of shareholder returns in many cases , and those unreliable returns tends to deter investors ( especially at retail level )

now SHV ( i have held it in the past ) has been a fairly solid company but buffeted by headwinds and tailwinds from currency fluctuations and supply dramas at major competitors ( Californian water shortages and regular fires in the area among them )

agriculture can be a tough game , take the adventures of CGC [ i don't hold ] despite several products being grown in enclosed areas , it manages to find plenty of dramas and setbacks
 
InsvestoBoy said:
Will be very curious to see outcomes over the long term on stocks like this, can higher prices for their product outweigh rising input costs?
Click to expand...
“This positive outlook is driving an increase in fourth quarter activity and supporting export volumes, forward contracted grain sales and supply chain margins.”

I suppose the medium and maybe the longer term outlook would depend on their forward sales and pricing. All very well to have strong harvests and plenty of volume but their results will depend on how they are selling that volume.

I know it is pedantic, but isn't the outlook driven by the increased activity instead of the way they have it.
 

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