GNC - Graincorp Limited

[Dona Ferentes]

Probably will benefit CBH group more than GNC.


Key points:

• WA growers reap a higher-than-expected 16.5 million tonne harvest​
• The harvest is tipped to exceed $6 billion as high grain prices deliver producers a huge payday​
• The haul comes despite a historically dry season and the trade war with China​

https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2021-01-0...prises/13039572

 

[Dona Ferentes]

GNC upgraded its range for 2021 underlying earnings to a range of $310 million to $330 million, up from a previous range of $255 million to $285 million.

Underlying net profit is now expected to be in a range of $125 million to $140 million compared to its previous upgrade in May to a range of $80 million to $105 million. GrainCorp will report its final 2020 -21 results on 11 November.

"We are pleased to upgrade our FY21 earnings guidance, which reflects the strong performance of our east coast Australian (ECA) grains business, following the bumper 2020/21 harvest", CEO Robert Spurway said in the statement.

"We are seeing excellent demand for high quality Australian grain, particularly with recent weather related crop production challenges in the northern hemisphere, and July delivered our biggest month of contracted sales on record."

GrainCorp said it now expects to see total exports this year at the higher end of previous expectations of 7 million to 8 million metric tonnes.

"We’re hearing reports of good potential in the upcoming crop, based on factors including area planted, sub-soil moisture levels, season-to-date rainfall, and longer-term weather forecasts,” said Mr Spurway.

............. at at a very healthy $6.09 today; was $5.30 at start of week. And probably about as high as it has been for at least 8 years. Good season, exceptional some might say, on both E and W Coasts; bullish outlook; cuts to both Russian and Canadian wheat crops; investment in storage capacity.

 

[peter2]

Noticed that most of our main agriculture companies are having a good time recently.

GNC broke resistance at 5.50 with their upgrade.
ELD made new high this week.
AAC rallied hard last two days. Meat prices rocketing higher.
CGC is thinking about going higher. I'm a bit wary of Costa, so not for me.
HUO jumped higher on takeover news. TGR rallied on HUO news.

 

[frugal.rock]

Noticed that most of our main agriculture companies are having a good time recently.

GNC broke resistance at 5.50 with their upgrade.
ELD made new high this week.
AAC rallied hard last two days. Meat prices rocketing higher.
CGC is thinking about going higher. I'm a bit wary of Costa, so not for me.
HUO jumped higher on takeover news. TGR rallied on HUO news.

Posted 6th June in POG thread...
@rederob had a laugh...

From keeping tabs on our agriculture sector, farmers are positive and getting massively better grain crops, underlying moisture levels are good and they are all seeding more than usual.
Markets displaced by China have found new homes and prices have well recovered.
They just need the good conditions to continue later in the year.
Can't eat gold... well you can, just get fancy poo's though. ?
Food for thought.

 

[mullokintyre]

Bought into GNC this day.
ABARES has forecast an above average grain plantings for 2021-22, after a record breaking crop in 2020-2021.
Wheat was around USD 5.30 a bushel late last year, although off its most recent highs, is still well above at USD7.18.
Driving around the Goulburn Valley recently, Canola crops are starting to flower, and there is still plenty of subsoil moisture.
There have been downgrading of yields in the US , Canada and Argentina because of weird weather.
Mick

 

[Greynomad99]

Bought into GNC this day.
ABARES has forecast an above average grain plantings for 2021-22, after a record breaking crop in 2020-2021.
Wheat was around USD 5.30 a bushel late last year, although off its most recent highs, is still well above at USD7.18.
Driving around the Goulburn Valley recently, Canola crops are starting to flower, and there is still plenty of subsoil moisture.
There have been downgrading of yields in the US , Canada and Argentina because of weird weather.
Mick

Well good luck with GNC and while it has made good gains recently it has spent several years going nowhere in a tight trading range stuck below $5.05. My rule with agricultural related stocks is to keep clear of them because there are just too many risks - especially in the driest (getting drier) continent on Earth.
With stocks all that fundamental analysis is mainly noise to me. I don't ignore it entirely but my decisions are governed by what the charts say. GNC's chart tells me it is a volatile stock that is hard to predict and has little in the way of a discernable price cycle - so not a trading stock in my book or a bottom drawer sit and hold prospect either.
It has made a steep price channel since November last year and now being at the top boundary of said channel my feeling is that there is a higher probability price will pull back to the lower boundary (as it has done before) rather than rise further.
Good luck with your trade and remember charting is just a lot of theoretical mumbo jumbo that isn't always right so me saying price might go down doesn't mean it will.

 

[qldfrog]

I actually bought some GNC and had an order ready for more today:
europe is having a very crappy weather and I suspect a very bad harvest: you hear a lot about fires in the Mediterranean area but the reast of teh continent has had a miserable cold and wet summer which is not great for wheat, unless dry weather settles there for the next months, it could be a disastrous European harvest..the chart is not good..i agree..but charts do not know weather

discard above, with extended planted area in france at least, the harvest will be bigger...so I canned my buy order

 

[mullokintyre]

Forecasting food production always a bit of a gamble, but I am moving more of our funds into food production/distribution.
Whatever happens in the world, people still have to eat.
No matter how much capacity and how fast your 8 terrabyte 700 terra HZ Iphone 47 might be, ya still can't eat it.
Unless you cook it for a very long time. then put it through the nutribullet.
Mick

 

[qldfrog]

Forecasting food production always a bit of a gamble, but I am moving more of our funds into food production/distribution.
Whatever happens in the world, people still have to eat.
No matter how much capacity and how fast your 8 terrabyte 700 terra HZ Iphone 47 might be, ya still can't eat it.
Unless you cook it for a very long time. then put it through the nutribullet.
Mick

Agree I am partial to RFF .one of the few companies in oz which could profit from Reset success or failure..
And RFF fell yesterday ?

 

[mullokintyre]

Dona f posted this in another fthread

“We’re seeing excellent demand for high quality Australian grain, particularly with recent weather-related crop production challenges in the northern hemisphere, and July delivered our biggest month of contracted sales on record”
Robert Spurway, CEO, GrainCorp Ltd

Today I drove past one of GNC's larger grain handling stores, and there is still a lot of grain under tarp. Could not tell what was in Silos, but one might expect they will have to rely on either on farm storage tubes or start shifting even larger record gran sales.
Mick

 

[Dona Ferentes]

The WA government has admitted a plan to bring in skilled overseas farm workers in time for the state's biggest-ever harvest has failed.

Key points:​

• A lack of quarantine facilities has thwarted a plan to bring in skilled overseas workers
• The severe worker shortage is threatening to derail WA's biggest-ever harvest
• The WA government says it is exploring other avenues to mobilise for the harvest

The sector had been crying out for the specialised workers to assist with a projected 20-million-tonne record harvest.

WA Agriculture Minister Alannah MacTiernan has told ABC's Country Hour it will not happen.

"It has just proved too difficult to do this unilaterally as a single state," she said. "We have tried to make this work, but we have got a pandemic and look, we're pulling out every other stop that we can to mobilise for this harvest."

Plan to bring in overseas workers for WA's biggest-ever grain harvest falls over

The WA government admits a plan to bring in skilled overseas farm workers in time for WA's biggest-ever grain harvest has fallen through amid predictions it will cost the industry between $300 and $500 million.

www.abc.net.au

 

[wabullfrog]

Dona f posted this in another fthread


Today I drove past one of GNC's larger grain handling stores, and there is still a lot of grain under tarp. Could not tell what was in Silos, but one might expect they will have to rely on either on farm storage tubes or start shifting even larger record gran sales.
Mick

There is always a bit of carryover just in case things go really pear shaped before the next crop is harvested. A fair portion of GNC crop is directed to meet domestic markets on the east coast so would expect a bit of it to move between now and harvest commencing.

Just entering the period where frost events start to become a risk to eventual harvest yields and quality. In WA we will probably had a bit of frost last night & will get a worse event tonight. Cold weather yesterday which has left a pool of cold air over the states South, cloud cover has disappeared & the wind is getting very light.

Good site to track Weather in WA agricultural regions.

https://weather.agric.wa.gov.au/

 

[sptrawler]

The WA government has admitted a plan to bring in skilled overseas farm workers in time for the state's biggest-ever harvest has failed.

Key points:​

• A lack of quarantine facilities has thwarted a plan to bring in skilled overseas workers
• The severe worker shortage is threatening to derail WA's biggest-ever harvest
• The WA government says it is exploring other avenues to mobilise for the harvest

The sector had been crying out for the specialised workers to assist with a projected 20-million-tonne record harvest.

WA Agriculture Minister Alannah MacTiernan has told ABC's Country Hour it will not happen.

Plan to bring in overseas workers for WA's biggest-ever grain harvest falls over

The WA government admits a plan to bring in skilled overseas farm workers in time for WA's biggest-ever grain harvest has fallen through amid predictions it will cost the industry between $300 and $500 million.

www.abc.net.au

I'm finding that all a bit hard to swallow, not that I know a lot about it, but i doubt they bring in overseas workers to drive state of the art machinery and they certainly don't use scythe's any more. I might be missing something, but I would have thought they use contract harvesters these days and I doubt they import operators.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

I'm finding that all a bit hard to swallow, not that I know a lot about it,

It's all political point scoring. The labour is working in the mines, internal migration is banned, and immigration has stopped.

But rather than trying to optimise a situation or find a solution, Blame Someone Else.

 

[mullokintyre]

At the beginning of April, Canola Futures were sitting around 5.80USD bushel.
By mid July, they were at 9.12 USD a bushel.
They have stayed in a narrow band around 9.00USD a bushel.
Canada leads the way in Canola production, followed by China, India, then Australia.
Just to show how risky farming is, about 3 months ago, Canada was looking at a record harvest after the biggest Canola planting in years 5 years.
But thanks to drought and hot weather the forecast is for the smallest crop in 9 years, down 25% on last year.
So if the largest producer in the world of Canola cuts 25% of its output, you might expect that to provide some level of support foir canola prices, at leat in the short to medium term.
Mick

 

[mullokintyre]

According to the

A new report from ANZ has predicted Australian agriculture may have reached 'peak acreage' in terms of land that can be used to grow crops.

It comes as the current winter cropping season has seen a record area planted, with 23 million hectares in the ground.

The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics September crop report predicts production from this winter cropping period to hit almost 55 million tonnes.

Peak acreage is the theoretical maximum area of land that can be planted to grow crops in Australia, and the report said the country might be pretty close.

The total area of land used for cropping fluctuates every year as rainfall, commodity and livestock prices influence farmer's decisions on what do with their land.
The report said that Australia's cropping area is unlikely to rise much further in the future as the land planted to crops has plateaued over the last decade to stay within a band of 20-23 million hectares — or almost the size of the United Kingdom.

"If you look back over the last 10 years, you see that things have reasonably flattened out," Michael Whitehead from ANZ Agribusiness Insights said.

Mr Whitehead said peak acreage meant most of the suitable land for growing crops was being 'utilised' already.

But farmer and chair of the representative body GrainGrowers, Brett Hosking, said there might still be room for increases in the cropping industry— especially if livestock prices fall.

I have a number of questions about this.
Firstly, why would you go to a bank for agricultural information.
Secondly, there is huge amounts of land that could yet be devoted to grains.
Farmers will risk going on the "goyder line" if the potential rewards are worth the risk.
There also a lot of land that is currently under horticulture, orchards, or irrigated pasture that could switch to crops if the **** returns from dairying, tomatoes, and other crops keep falling.
There are a lot of acreage shut up for the production of hay and silage that the same applies to.
There is sill a bit more land that could shift to crops if the economics stack up.
Mick

 

[qldfrog]

According to the

I have a number of questions about this.
Firstly, why would you go to a bank for agricultural information.
Secondly, there is huge amounts of land that could yet be devoted to grains.
Farmers will risk going on the "goyder line" if the potential rewards are worth the risk.
There also a lot of land that is currently under horticulture, orchards, or irrigated pasture that could switch to crops if the **** returns from dairying, tomatoes, and other crops keep falling.
There are a lot of acreage shut up for the production of hay and silage that the same applies to.
There is sill a bit more land that could shift to crops if the economics stack up.
Mick

When you realise the bounty properly managed earth /soil can give, it is more a matter of properly manag8ng what we have, ensuring water capture both within the soil but also in new dams...
And realising that we can not expect yearly cereal harvests on some of our marginal lands, so if we have rain, we gather hay..and cereals, but if not, well we wait...

 

[mullokintyre]

GNC hit another 52 week high today.
The chart for the year shows a steady upward trend that shows little sign of breaking.
Just the way i like them.
Mick

 

[mullokintyre]

From ABC News

Australian canola prices have been historically high this year and increased again this week.
The reason was Canada.

Canada is the world's largest producer and exporter of canola, but drought and record temperatures have devastated this year's crop.

The latest crop forecast by Statistics Canada has production dwindling to 12.8 million tonnes, which is down 34 per cent from last year, and would be Canada's smallest canola crop since 2010.

Speaking to ABC Landline while harvesting in Saskatchewan, Danielle Wildfong said it had been a challenging year for growers.

"Some of Saskatchewan has been a third [of their normal production] and some places are getting three bushels per acre which is virtually nothing," she said.

"It was probably one of the hottest summers I've had."

Get the latest rural news​

• Visit ABC Rural for agriculture and mining news, including weather and the markets
• Sign up for Rural RoundUp: Stories from rural and regional Australia, in your inbox every Friday, or for Rural news daily.

The slashing of Canada's crop forecast had an immediate affect on the market this week, with ICE canola futures rising 4 per cent to around A$950 a tonne.

It lifted the Australian market as well, with canola now fetching over $900 a tonne in Western Australia and parts of eastern Australia.

Ms Wildfong said the high prices in Canada has softened the blow for some.

"It is helping for sure, we're very blessed that we have the grain prices where we do, it's saving a few farms that's for sure.
"It's been tough for some of our farmers in the south, but we're optimistic that we'll get this crop off and we'll have a better year next year," she said.

The late frosts in WA are diminishing the yields somewhat in WA, but the good winter rains here on the east coast have more than made up for it.
Should be good news for the likes of GNC.
Mick

 

[basilio]

According to the

I have a number of questions about this.
Firstly, why would you go to a bank for agricultural information.
Secondly, there is huge amounts of land that could yet be devoted to grains. ??
Farmers will risk going on the "goyder line" if the potential rewards are worth the risk.
There also a lot of land that is currently under horticulture, orchards, or irrigated pasture that could switch to crops if the **** returns from dairying, tomatoes, and other crops keep falling.
There are a lot of acreage shut up for the production of hay and silage that the same applies to.
There is sill a bit more land that could shift to crops if the economics stack up.
Mick

I'd question a number of your comments Mull.

Realistically Australia is at/around peak cropping land at the moment. There is always a grey area between grazing and cropping land and it does depend on the season and prospective prices of crops vs sheep as to how much land is sown - and to what . I don't believe there is any "huge" amount of land available that can be cropped.

On the other side of the coin Australia farm land is far more vulnerable to CC iimpact. Excessive heat, drier overall climate, storm events at harvest time, even bushfire at harvest time are all increasing the risks of agriculture. The Goyder line is in fact going south as the climate warms up.

I'd also be amazed if horticulture land ended up being turned into wheat farms. The returns for tree and horticulture crops are many times higher than broad acre wheat farms. And on that point alone it won't happen. Wheat or wheat/sheep farms are BIG. Often thousand of acres. Farmers don't run 100-200 acre properties as wheat farms. The economics and logistics don't work.

I also suspect that hay and silage production offers good value for farmers both for their own animals, investment in future feedstock and sale.

Climate change impacts on Australian crop farming - All About Feed

Australia has experienced higher temperatures and lower winter rainfall in recent decades, significantly affecting many crop farmers. The latest Insights

www.allaboutfeed.net

Climate change forcing crops rethink for farmers as Goyder's Line 'moves south'

Climate change is moving a line drawn across South Australian maps 150 years ago to indicate the northern boundary of the state's good agricultural land, scientists say.

www.abc.net.au

On a roll: Hay and silage stocks replenished as farmers prepare for the next drought

While farmers across NSW were forced to import fodder earlier this year, some can now send their freshly cut hay to drought-affected properties in Queensland.

www.abc.net.au