Global Warming - How Valid and Serious?

[wayneL]

I suggest we build a dam/dyke right round the equator - to stop the warm currents from the north messing up the southern hemisphere.

Nooo, we want Antarctica to melt so we can go and live on it.

 

[Wysiwyg]

2020, have you ever wondered why oil is available to be used by humans or ore can be turned into steel/alloy? Human life is contradictory!

 

[2020hindsight]

Nooo, we want Antarctica to melt so we can go and live on it.

environmental refugees you reckon

ever see the movie "Waterworld" wayne?

this is a song written in antarctican language - means "p1ss off northern hemisphere" :-

video on waterworld

 

[wayneL]

Nooo, we want Antarctica to melt so we can go and live on it.

Actually, I'm thinking of buying one of those Viking farms in Greenland. You know the ones where they grew crops in the medieval warm period?

Covered in 20km of ice now, but in 2 or 3 years, I could be putting in my first cocoa bean crop.

 

[2020hindsight]

2020, have you ever wondered why oil is available to be used by humans or ore can be turned into steel/alloy? Human life is contradictory!

:topic
yep amazing stuff
and the combination of the discovery of steel - and the fact that heat allows it to be formed (God sure did his sums carefully )

"the forge press moves down
with the will of man
and the billot of steel responds"

 

[Smurf1976]

I spent some time on Samoa in the 70's when the French were doing atomic test in Tahiti (Muraroa Atoll). They had an air-testing station on the eastern tip of the island - could detect the smallest fraction of impurities in the air.. - and btw, the air ( frequently prevailing wind) had blown across thousands of km of uninterrupted ocean -

they used to say ( probably myth) - that if a ship sailed past on the horizon, then they could detect the exhaust fumes

So ... as if they haven't been aware of the buld up of co2 ??
and as if they'd tell us if they knew.

There's one closer to home too. The Cape Grim Baseline Air Pollution Station (BAPS) at the NW tip of Tasmania.

It's pretty sensitive. It's near Roaring 40's 130MW Woolnorth wind farm and there was a big deal with the use of paints, glues, lubricants and indeed any kind of solvent etc during construction of the wind farm since that would mess up the readings. Even fumes from a single truck etc were an issue.

Much the same there with the air typically straight from the ocean thus free of local pollutants.

Another one that's a rather sad indicator, also in Tas, is that car fumes can be quite readily detected in the depths of the SW WHA. Not exactly a lot of traffic down there (no roads...) but it's still possible to detect fumes from elsewhere. Quite often that's fumes from outside the state - all depends on which way the wind is blowing.

All pretty clean compared to the air in any city though. Always amazes me just how far the haze spreads out from Sydney in particular. I don't know the distances but I'd guess it's in the order of 100 - 200km away under the right weather conditions. That alone is reason to be moving away from petrol etc IMO.

 

[Smurf1976]

As I mentioned above, a whole district council in Devon has banned them (but obviously not individual packaging on food), and it has been an uqualified success. HM government has picked up the ball and will be implementing it UK wide in 2009.

Mrs and I have been doing the same for years. Singlet bags suck... badly. You don't need them.

But what impact has this had on, for example, fossil fuel use for things other than plastic bag manufacture? It's hard to imagine that it would be zero.

At a more practical level, how do you overcome the problem of not knowing if/what you will be buying when you go to the store? I think 99% of people will just not go shopping without a car parked nearby as the solution.

Let's face it. If you want something other than basic food etc then odds are it requires going into several likely retailers in order to find what you want. Very rarely can I do my weekly shopping without going to both Coles AND Woolworths - there's always something out of stock whichever I go to first. And it requires a third retailer just to buy sensibly priced milk.

Likewise it's rare to buy multiple items from Big W / Kmart without having to go to both because one doesn't have it. Same way as you go to two different Target stores and they have different stock.

All of which becomes rather difficult when you have to have half a dozen empty bags checked each and every time you leave a store without buying anything. I honestly do think that most will end up with a stash of reusable bags permanently left in the car and avoiding shopping anywhere that isn't a shopping centre with a car park.

I'm not convinced this is good for the environment overall. Plastic use down for sure. But the unintended side effects?

 

[2020hindsight]

I see the biggest problem with the ocean rise is with some of the Pacific nations that are already under threat. I can't remember the Islands, but do rememeber seeing the documentaries of their islands disappearing and the fresh water ground water being contaminated with sea water. They have nowhere to go within their own environment. The rest of us can move inland ...

http://www.geocities.com/wingian_chan/globwarm/pacific.htm

roland, tv doco on Tuvalu maybe ? - "area is only 26km² and the highest point no higher than 5m above sea levels" - "within 50 years" ... "Australia has rebuffed Tuvalu's calls to grant its citizens special visas in case they become 'environmental refugees" - high time then we signed up to Kyoto

Tuvalu is one of the most notable victims of sea level rise. With a population of 11 000, it is made up of nine small atolls. Total land area is only 26km² and the highest point no higher than 5m above sea levels. Waves routinely lap at the doors of coastal homes, and the islanders' concerns grow with the rising water.
Eventually, scientists warn, the tides will grow high enough to submerge the entire nation. High tides often swamp vast portions of Tuvalu. The island state has experienced record high tides of 3.2 metres that submerged much of the country, cutting telephone services for weeks and flooding Tuvalu's only airport. When strong winds and waves accompany the high tides, the flooding is even worse. The motu of Tepuka Savilivili in Tuvalu has lost its coconut trees and sandbanks.

Straddling the Equator and the international dateline, Kiribati (pronounced Kee-ree-bas) is composed of 33 islands spread over 3 million km² in the central Pacific Ocean. One of the smallest and most isolated nations in the world, the terrain is mostly low-lying coral atolls surrounded by extensive reefs. In recent years, Kiribati islanders have reported unusually high tides, rogue waves, the loss of small islands, and storms more powerful than those of the past. The motu of Tebua Tarawa, a former landmark for fishermen, has disappeared.
Kiribati has had to move roads inland as the Pacific eats away its shore. Some villages in Kiribati had already been forced to move inland because of worsening coastal erosion. The small island of Bikeman, located near Tarawa, was once a landmark to guide fishermen home. Now, Bikeman is submerged underwater, probably due to the rise in sea level. Years ago, the island was called Tebuneuea, meaning "the place for chiefs," where people used to present their gifts to the gods. Today, people can only walk on the former island in knee-deep water.

The Tokelau Islands (NZ) are about halfway between New Zealand and Hawaii. Global warming is a major concern there considering that the highest point on any of the 127 islands is only 5m above sea level, and there have been UN predictions that the atolls could be uninhabitable by the end of the 21st century.

Environmental Refugees

As global warming continues, in extreme circumstances, it may become necessary to abandon some atolls or low-lying islands altogether. Such an option would be socially and culturally disruptive and would require access to substantial resources -- which most of these countries may be unable to afford.
...
When land disappears, the population would have to be relocated. Tuvalu, expected by scientists to be one of the first nations to vanish due to global warming, is actively seeking alternatives for its population of 11 000. Rising sea level is expected to engulf the nine-island nation within 50 years. The government has appealed to Australia and New Zealand to provide permanent homes for its people, and has received a positive response from the latter. NZ Prime Minister Helen Clark has said she is "very sensitive" to Tuvalu's problems and needs. She met with Tuvalu's late Prime Minister Ionatana Ionatana on a few occasions to discuss the island nation's problems, and it is understood New Zealand will offer a haven for at least some of the affected islanders. There are already 5000 people from Tuvalu in New Zealand.

However, Australia has rebuffed Tuvalu's calls to grant its citizens special visas in case they become 'environmental refugees.' "Tuvaluans are seeking a place they can permanently migrate to, should the high tides eventually make our homes uninhabitable," said Ionatana.

All those islands have major problem with fresh water at the best of times. In American Samoa, there were pumps in the centre of the island perched over a small cone of fresh water - when the canneries needed water ( about 10 km from the pumps), they'd "turn on the suction pumps" - bludy brilliant (not) - suck up all the sewerage into the water supply etc .

But as the salt water level rises, the water supply gets less and less "viable".

 

[wayneL]

TUVALU

Exposing more GW BS

http://www.pacificmagazine.net/issue/2002/02/01/is-tuvalu-really-sinking

Check the Science
Well, rather than rely on Brown's "sense" of sea level rise, let's check the instruments. As it turns out, estimates of globally averaged sea level rise in the 20th century are irrelevant since Tuvalu's local sea level change is very different from the globally averaged change. There are three estimates of sea level changes for Tuvalu. The first is a satellite record showing that the sea level has actually fallen four inches around Tuvalu since 1993 when the hundred-million dollar international TOPEX/POSEIDON satellite project record began. Second comes from the modern instruments recording tide gauge data since 1978. There the record for Tuvalu shows ups and downs of many inches over periods of years. For example, the strong El Niño of 1997-98 caused the sea level surrounding Tuvalu to drop just over one foot. The El Niño Southern Oscillation is a natural - as opposed to man-made -future of the Pacific Ocean, as areas of the Pacific periodically warm then cool every few years, causing significant sea level rises and falls every few years in step with the co-oscillations of the ocean and atmosphere. The overall trend discerned from the tide gauge data, according to Wolfgang Scherer, Director of Australia's National Tidal Facility, remains flat. "One definitive statement we can make," states Scherer, "is that there is no indication based on observations that sea level rise is accelerating." Finally, there is the new estimate by scientists at the Centre Nationale d ¹Etudes Spatiales who also find that between 1955 and 1996 the sea level surrounding Tuvalu dropped four inches.

All these measurements show that Tuvalu has suffered, at worst, no sea level rise. So much for Brown's sense of sea level trends for Tuvalu.

Man-Made Problems
That said, there are some local problems that have changed the coastline of Tuvalu and mimic sea level rise. Sand is excavated for building material on Tuvalu. The excavation for building material has eroded the beach, thus giving the impression of rising sea to the casual observer. "The island is full of holes and seawater is coming through these, flooding areas that weren't normally flooded 10 or 15 years ago," according to Tuvalu environmental official, Paani Laupepa.

It is likely that the beach erosion and building on the island caused the sea flooding of areas over the last decade. And that is a true environmental concern. But it is a local, man-made problem that will not be solved with massive cuts in carbon dioxide emission.

An environmental official of Tuvalu, Elisala Pita, is concerned with the alarmism of western eco-imperialists. In an interview in the Canadian Globe and Mail on November 24, Pita says that, "This [coastal] erosion is caused by man-made infrastructure. Tuvalu is being used for the issue of climate change. People are telling all these lies, just using Tuvalu to prove their point. No island is sinking. Tuvalu is not sinking. It is still floating." These small atolls have few natural resources, including fresh groundwater. Catch basins or desalination plants form the only fresh water available.

With such limited resources, the alarmism of western environmentalists will do nothing to help Tuvaluans. Only the scientific facts will.

 

[Smurf1976]

Weve pretty much mastered renewable pine plantations, just think of all that extra CO2 gobbled up in the process of growing all the extra trees needed for the Paper revolution !

Just need a renewable energy source running the chipping machines and fannys your aunt or atleast bobs your uncle

Almost exactly what environmentalists are fighting in Tasmania right now. A pulp mill that is indeed powered almost 100% by renewable energy and using a renewable resource that's already being harvested.

Ever wondered why I'm a tad cynical about the green movement? I've just seen too many instances where they support an idea then launch a massive campaign against it as soon as someone tries to actually build it.

Brilliant politics though and gains votes. There are probably people in Sydney etc who think the Tamar Valley is some sort of wilderness such is the brilliance of green marketing.

 

[wayneL]

Climate Catastrophe Cancelled

1/5


2/5


3/5


4/5


5/5

 

[2020hindsight]

http://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=The+Denial+Machine&search=Search


1/4
The Denial Machine- pt 1 of 4 etc

2/4


3/4


4/4

 

[wayneL]

LOL

 

[2020hindsight]

wayne
putting aside the fact that I'm probably a better follower of (all) the teachings of David Suzuki than you - I mean, I shampoo my hair once a year maybe, I use a minimum of plastic bags, though you need a few to pick up dog droppings - best to check if they have a hole in the bottom of course - if they have a hole in the bottom, you give them to the kids when they take the dog for a walk

let's assume we agree on everything except whether we should use alternative power rather than fossil fuel, (though I suspect you would half agree - or something)

then we must agree on a heap of stuff

are we not like two irish carriage drivers - driving along the same narrow muddy dirt track, buffetting each other - taking every opportunity to splash mud on the other -
yet in the end going along the SAME road, and in the SAME direction. ?

PS I'm gonna strangle that DOW one of these days

 

[2020hindsight]

As posted elsewhere .. in the past when there was a lot of sunspot activity, there was maybe a corresponding increase in vegetation ?? let’s plant a few trees now so that when sunspot activity peaks in 2012 ish , there will be some serious carbon sinking going on. - and the birdlife and wildlife might appreciate it as well

 

[Scuba]

Interesting video article on ABC net 2007 second hottest year in Century: NASA

Steps in the right direction? US car giant prepares world for life without oil

 

[Smurf1976]

An interesting read here. Whilst I've long been convinced that we'll end up burning everything we can, it seems there may not be as much coal as is commonly assumed.

In short, it seems that coal is subject to the exact same "reserves never revised to account for production" problem as oil. Also that many coal reserves are "disappearing" as the resource is sterilised through other land uses, because it wasn't really there in the first place and so on.

Also, it seems that China is adding as much coal-fired power generation every season as Australia has built over the past 50 years. The "good" news though is they seem in danger of running out of coal to fire it with.

Actually, that may not be so good when you think about the non-climate consequences of resource shortages (war).

 

[Smurf1976]

An interesting read here. Whilst I've long been convinced that we'll end up burning everything we can, it seems there may not be as much coal as is commonly assumed.

In short, it seems that coal is subject to the exact same "reserves never revised to account for production" problem as oil. Also that many coal reserves are "disappearing" as the resource is sterilised through other land uses, because it wasn't really there in the first place and so on.

Also, it seems that China is adding as much coal-fired power generation every season as Australia has built over the past 50 years. The "good" news though is they seem in danger of running out of coal to fire it with.

Actually, that may not be so good when you think about the non-climate consequences of resource shortages (war).

http://www.davidstrahan.com/blog/?p=116

 

[2020hindsight]

Interesting video article on ABC net 2007 second hottest year in Century: NASA

Steps in the right direction? US car giant prepares world for life without oil

Scuba - great watch (re hybrid cars etc )
they forced us to go to unleaded - next hybrid you reckon? lol

(PS I downloaded VLC media player to watch ABC videos - seems to work ok)

.....

only 150 years of even coal ! - sheesh
Sometimes I think it's a good thing that the Newcastle coal loaders can't keep up with demand

The great coal hole
Posted on Thursday, January 17th, 2008
First published in New Scientist, 17 January 2008

There used to be a joke about taking coal to Newcastle but these days the laughing stock is getting the stuff out. Newcastle in New South Wales, Australia, may be the biggest coal export terminal in the world’s biggest coal-exporting country, but even it is having trouble keeping up with demand. The line of ships waiting to load coal can stretch almost to Sydney, 150 kilometres to the south. At its peak last year, there were 80 vessels in the queue, each forced to lie idle for up to a month.

The delays have been lengthening since 2003 – and not just because of the port’s limited capacity in the face of soaring demand. Gnawing doubts are also beginning to emerge about supply, not just in Australia but worldwide, and not only because of logistics but also because of geology. In other words, coal may soon be running short.

Ask most energy analysts how much coal we have left, and the answer will be a variant on “plenty”. It is commonly agreed that supplies of coal will last for well over a century; coal is generally seen as our safety net in a world of dwindling oil. But is it? A number of recent reports suggest that coal reserves may be hugely inflated, a possibility that has profound implications for both global energy supply and climate change.

The latest “official” statistics from the World Energy Council, published in 2007, put global coal reserves at a staggering 847 billion tonnes. Since world coal production that year was just under 6 billion tonnes, the reserves appear at first glance to be ample to sustain output for at least a century – well beyond even the most distant planning horizon.

Mine below the surface, however, and the numbers are not so reassuring. Over the past 20 years, official reserves have fallen by more than 170 billion tonnes, even though we have consumed nothing like that much. What’s more, by a measure known as the reserves-to-production (R/P) ratio – the number of years the reserves would last at the current rate of consumption – coal has declined even more dramatically. In February 2007, the European Commission’s Institute for Energy reported that the R/P ratio had dropped by more than a third between 2000 and 2005, from 277 years to just 155. If this rate of decline were to continue, the institute warns, “the world could run out of economically recoverable …reserves of coal much earlier than widely anticipated”. In 2006, according to figures from the BP Statistical Review of World Energy, the R/P fell again, to 144 years. So why are estimates of coal reserves falling so fast – and why now?

One reason is clear: consumption is soaring, particularly in the developing world. Global coal consumption rose 35 per cent between 2000 and 2006. In 2006, China alone added 102 gigawatts of coal-fired generating capacity, enough to produce three times as much electricity as California consumed that year. China is by far the world’s largest producer of coal, but such is its appetite for the fuel that in 2007 it became a net importer. According to the International Energy Agency, coal consumption is likely to grow ever faster in both China and India.

 

[2020hindsight]

There are probably people in Sydney etc who think the Tamar Valley is some sort of wilderness such is the brilliance of green marketing.

Is the taste of James Boag gonna change? - the odd bit of cardboard maybe?