wayneL
VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!
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.Another milder-than-normal season takes shape
During the active 2005 hurricane season, the usual doom-and-gloom prophets blamed the storms on global warming. "Nature's wrath," we were told, "hath been unleashed". Aided by a complaisant media, we were told this was our wakeup call, come to punish us for our SUV-driving ways.
Then disaster struck. The 2006 season not only didn't live up to predictions, it wound up being one of the quietest seasons of the past century. No matter. We were told to ignore this year-long blip, told that 2007 would come roaring back with a vengeance.
And yet, here we are, two full months into the season, and not a single hurricane has formed. Not one. Just two mild tropical storms, one of which didn't even strike land, and a third storm which never went above subtropical status. Hurricane forecasters are busily downgrading their predictions for the rest of the season.
And so it goes. The sky isn't falling yet. But what about the future? Will global warming wreck all our beach-going vacations?
There are two schools of thought regarding the effects of climate change on hurricane science. The first begins with the fact that hurricanes require warm water to form. Global warming means warmer water, leading to the naive conclusion is that more hurricanes will form. The second school realizes that hurricanes are heat engines -- driven not by raw temperature, but by temperature differentials between regions. Global warming warms the arctic and temperate belts, but not the tropics. This reduces the total energy available for major storm formation. It also increases upper-level wind shear, which tends to tear apart storms before they grow too strong. This school believes the long term effects of global warming will be fewer, milder storms
These animations [courtesy of Rob Hine (ECMWF)] illustrate a number of climate issues which have caused conceptual difficulties from time to time:
Even though climate is chaotic, with weather states impossible to predict in detail more than a few days ahead, there is a predictable impact of anthropogenic forcing on the probability of occurrence of the naturally-occurring climatic regimes. This lies at the heart of the CLIVAR perspective on climate change - how anthropogenic forcing will affect the natural modes of climate variability.
In our chaotic climate, it is impossible (indeed meaningless) to try to attribute a specific (eg severe) weather event to anthropogenic global warming. Hence, it is a false dichotomy to suppose that some recently-occurring drought or flood is either on the one hand caused by global warming, or on the other hand is merely due to natural climate variability.
Rather, the correct way to address such an issue is to ask instead whether anthropogenic climate change will increase or decrease the probability of occurrence of the type of drought or flood which we (or journalists pursuing some weather story provoked by a recent drought or flood) are interested. Such probabilities can be obtained, for example, from the JSC/CLIVAR Working Group on Climate Modelling's multi-model ensemble, made for the IPCC fourth assessment report.
In a chaotic climate, one cannot expect the time-series of global temperature to increase monotonically under the impact of anthropogenic climate change. Hence, for example, global mean temperatures were especially warm in 1998 because of the occurrence of a substantial El-Niño event. By the bullet above, it is meaningless to attribute the 1998 El-Niño event to global warming. Only by looking over long enough periods of time can one see the trend in global mean temperature due to anthropogenic climate change, above the "noise" of climatic variability.
Climate, however, is the bigger picture of a region's weather: the average, over 30 years (according to the World Meteorological Association's definition), of the weather pattern in a region. While weather changes fast on human timescales, climate changes fairly slowly. Getting reasonably accurate predictions is a matter of choosing the right timescale: days in the case of weather, decades in the case of climate.
Antarctica's ice melting faster
Leigh Dayton, Science writer | January 15, 2008
THE most comprehensive study to date of Antarctica's ice confirms growing concern that the ice cap is melting faster than predicted.
The implications are that the global sea level will rise faster than expected, while a huge influx of freshwater into the salty oceans could alter ocean currents.
Antarctica holds 90 per cent of Earth's ice.
According to the new findings, snowfall is topping up ice in the continent's interior and East Antarctic has held its own. But West Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula lost nearly 200 billion tonnes of ice in 2006 alone.
But in the end, IPCC talk high probabilities, etc (including 90 and 95% confidence). We have to take the alarming melting of polar cap seriously, (imo) and try to steer things back. It's not as if the world has ever seen this much CO2 before. We are heading into unchartered waters - and the planet is not the place to conduct unprecedented experiments.
And as you have pointed out to me many times, pollution of all types is capable of being reduced with anthropogenic effort.
(PS as for one year being "mild" compared to "the trend" the solar cycle (11 year, Galileo) is at a low at the moment - let's check out the predictions in 2012 when it peaks again shall we)
The only people (among the first world) doing zip about it are the yanks (with exception of the governator of CA) - at least the other countries are admitting there's a problem looming.it is now cool to fret over GW... while doing zip about it.
Meanwhile, global pollution continues unabated.
IF AGW is real, the so called "measures" the rest of the world are employing is "fiddling while Rome burns", allegorically penny wise and pound foolish... futile.The only people (among the first world) doing zip about it are the yanks (with exception of the governator of CA) - at least the other countries are admitting there's a problem looming.
ok 95% chance of a problem ( same thing if you think about it - as a responsible manager)
Bit hard to put Rome's fire out (need for action against any and ALL pollution) when people (eg Johnny Howard , who took 10 years to come around to the need for action against GW) keep sabotaging the fire engine, burying it with red herrings. (imo)IF AGW is real, the so called "measures" the rest of the world are employing is "fiddling while Rome burns", allegorically penny wise and pound foolish... futile.
THanks Smurf..
1. liberty, equality, fraternity, and get-it-through-your-thick-head-tax-on-power-and-growth-mentality
we shall fight on the beaches, we shall fight in the banks, ....
2. .... and as you say, what happens in Aus is chicken feed to what will happen in China and India (as they try to get 10% of what we have). - still we have to do our share - especially as prorata we are one of the worst.
3. let's do it
4. seems to me that planes are running pretty much 100% full these days - gotta be a good start - put air prices up maybe.
petrochemicals? - could go back to using wool instead of synthetics I guess; polyethylene, plastics etc - millions of dumb products, guess we could could reduce by 50% if we cut out half the idiotic toys etc which usually break before boxing day? - at least many are recyclable )
5. let's do it
6. let's do it
7. ditto
8. ditto
9. "All technically very possible but simply tinkering around the edges with x% renewable electricity, a bit of insulation on hot water pipes and different light bulbs does little to take us off the constant growth in fossil fuels track."
agreed - let's stop tinkering and get serious.
give your wind turbines a go - and solar photovoltaic - even dams - although Traveston (for instance) is average depth 1.5m - not much power there m8.
If it turns out that they can't cope (and in themseves are just tinkering , albeit perhaps with a capital T) , then the next gerneration can go nuclear - in the interests that there might be a generation after them
Also put a massive tax on big petrol guzzling cars - also on car-racing events , even formula 1 etc - also on the US military etc
FYIMy view that concentration on AGW is aiming for a 1 pointer instead of a six pointer (in AFL parlance). Folks ignore 99% of the problem by focusing on so called greenhouse gases (incorrectly in view... I am now more convinced than ever). This is largely a function of "social proof"; it is now cool to fret over GW... while doing zip about it.
Meanwhile, global pollution continues unabated.
Hit the nail on the head there. Geothermal, wave, solar and wind to provide most of the actual energy. Hydro for the storage, firm generating capacity it provides and ability to rapidly alter output to match the supply from all sources with demand.electric cars will do didly squat if the electricity is generated by coal c'mon fella's... we're clever than this... the problem can be fixed only by a whole scale change in the way we produce electricity...
that pretty much means geothermal, wave motion, hydro, plus solar / wind for those who have it... and maybe nuclear for those who don't have access to renewable sources.
this problem is two fold
1. Technological capability
2. overcoming vested interests.
wayne - hell, that is one brilliant article - thanks.
Further along the line, I went to a landfill site, those great muddy canyons of toxic waste. Looking around, I saw that most of the stuff was uneaten food in garish packaging. Once it was buried under the soil, attempts would be made to leach off the harmful emissions, but it was still there, thousands of tons of pointless waste, our selfish legacy to future generations living on a coughing planet
For some reason, there is no pride any longer in making do. Those who object to needless waste are considered tree-huggers, when, in fact, they are simply trying to be ethical in a way that comes naturally to people in other countries.
DETROIT, Michigan (AFP) — General Motors Corp. is planning on making biofuel with garbage at a cost of less than a dollar a gallon, the company's chief has said.
The US automaker has entered into a partnership with Illinois-based Coskata Inc. which has developed a way to make ethanol from practically any renewable source, including old tires and plant waste.
They have to start somewhere plastic shopping bags is a valid target.
I think they really need to "popularise" doing the right thing, get all the famous folks on board, movie stars etc, once they go green the sheeples follow!
I think "they" is half the problem.
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