GDN - Golden State Resources
- Thread starter chris1983
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G'day, Mahmoodf.
We know nothing in the states about GDN's well other than what GDN has released, which in my opinion indicates a commercial find. I will tell you a little about Delta Petroleum's (DPTR) position in the Paradox Basin for what it may indicate about the GDN play. Delta has drilled three wells on two structures out of five structures on DPTR leases. All are commercial and are being completed with multi-stage fracs (one is the apparent monster I noted in my last post). I suspect the same frac'ing will need to be done to the GDN well. Delta has permitted 8 added Paradox wells and has announced that it will build a pipeline and gathering system to the two structures already drilled. DPTR's wells appear to have excellent economics. There is a major pipeline through the Paradox Basin, the 3.4 bcf/d Northwest Pipeline, which runs from natural gas fields in New Mexico to the states of Washington and Oregon with an extension about to be built into northern California. The Paradox Basin is a large area and I don't know how far the GDN well is from the pipeline. I also don't know what the Northwest Pipeline's open capacity is but I suspect there is available capacity, otherwise why would DPTR already be planning a gathering system and pipeline (to the pipeline)?
Another poster here pointed out that, as a DPTR subsidiary is drilling the GDN well, GDN's statements may be based on what they'd learned from the DPTR crew/experts. I don't know if this is true, but if it is then the GDN well is commercial because DPTR management is very careful about what DPTR people say. GDN's statements, however, may also be the conclusions of GDN employees or experts.
To sum up, if GDN has a good discovery, as it appears (and we don't even know about that bottom target zone yet) then fairly fast production and sales are a very good possibility.
We know nothing in the states about GDN's well other than what GDN has released, which in my opinion indicates a commercial find. I will tell you a little about Delta Petroleum's (DPTR) position in the Paradox Basin for what it may indicate about the GDN play. Delta has drilled three wells on two structures out of five structures on DPTR leases. All are commercial and are being completed with multi-stage fracs (one is the apparent monster I noted in my last post). I suspect the same frac'ing will need to be done to the GDN well. Delta has permitted 8 added Paradox wells and has announced that it will build a pipeline and gathering system to the two structures already drilled. DPTR's wells appear to have excellent economics. There is a major pipeline through the Paradox Basin, the 3.4 bcf/d Northwest Pipeline, which runs from natural gas fields in New Mexico to the states of Washington and Oregon with an extension about to be built into northern California. The Paradox Basin is a large area and I don't know how far the GDN well is from the pipeline. I also don't know what the Northwest Pipeline's open capacity is but I suspect there is available capacity, otherwise why would DPTR already be planning a gathering system and pipeline (to the pipeline)?
Another poster here pointed out that, as a DPTR subsidiary is drilling the GDN well, GDN's statements may be based on what they'd learned from the DPTR crew/experts. I don't know if this is true, but if it is then the GDN well is commercial because DPTR management is very careful about what DPTR people say. GDN's statements, however, may also be the conclusions of GDN employees or experts.
To sum up, if GDN has a good discovery, as it appears (and we don't even know about that bottom target zone yet) then fairly fast production and sales are a very good possibility.
bigdog
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Rosesny,
You are up early!
It all sounds great.
The GDN announcements to Aust Stock Exchange issued by GDN can be viewed
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/research/...archBy=asxCode&allinfo=&asxCode=gdn#headlines
Reports have been regular:
03/11/2006 Drilling Status Report - 3 Nov 06 3 PDF
01/11/2006 Appendix 3B - Exercise of Unlisted Options 10 PDF
01/11/2006 Drilling Status Report 2 PDF
31/10/2006 Change of Director's Interest Notice 3 PDF
31/10/2006 First Quarter Cashflow Report 5 PDF
31/10/2006 First Quarter Activities Report 5 PDF
31/10/2006 Drilling Status Report - 31 October 2006 3 PDF
30/10/2006 Request for Trading Halt 1 PDF
30/10/2006 Trading Halt 1 PDF
27/10/2006 2006 Annual Report 53 PDF
You are up early!
It all sounds great.
The GDN announcements to Aust Stock Exchange issued by GDN can be viewed
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/research/...archBy=asxCode&allinfo=&asxCode=gdn#headlines
Reports have been regular:
03/11/2006 Drilling Status Report - 3 Nov 06 3 PDF
01/11/2006 Appendix 3B - Exercise of Unlisted Options 10 PDF
01/11/2006 Drilling Status Report 2 PDF
31/10/2006 Change of Director's Interest Notice 3 PDF
31/10/2006 First Quarter Cashflow Report 5 PDF
31/10/2006 First Quarter Activities Report 5 PDF
31/10/2006 Drilling Status Report - 31 October 2006 3 PDF
30/10/2006 Request for Trading Halt 1 PDF
30/10/2006 Trading Halt 1 PDF
27/10/2006 2006 Annual Report 53 PDF
Bigdog - checkout newsalerts for the latest news on any ASX company. Heres the link for GDN: http://www.newsalerts.com.au/stock.php?code=GDN
You can see it hasn't registered in the papers yet -- if it does after monday then tuesday could be a great day
You can see it hasn't registered in the papers yet -- if it does after monday then tuesday could be a great day
bigdog
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Tahpot,
Thanks
I have subscribed to alerts for several months and had not set up GDN because I was not a shareholder
I got into GDN on late Friday afternoon at 0.875
Can not wait until the next announcement
John
Thanks
I have subscribed to alerts for several months and had not set up GDN because I was not a shareholder
I got into GDN on late Friday afternoon at 0.875
Can not wait until the next announcement
John
Wysiwyg
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bigdog said:
Gee you must have been on the ball.They were at .875 for a few minutes. :aufreg:
tech/a
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punters didnt need to fall over themselves to jump onboard You had investors running scared..so of course they wont try to fall over themselves. They accumulated on friday and will be anticipating news on Monday.
I also dont see why good news would not be anticipated after hitting a major gas interval in the alkali gluch zone and also hitting gas throughout the entire drill. Leadville is next and news should be announced Monday along with wireline log survey results. Your graph will be right if the results are bad..or be very wrong if the results are good...pretty simple in my mind.
They have now hit Leadville if they are on target with their predictions..some people would know if it is good or bad..I expect it to go into a trading halt first thing Monday. Good luck to the holders.
You had investors running scared..so of course they wont try to fall over themselves. They accumulated on friday and will be anticipating news on Monday.I also dont see why good news would not be anticipated after hitting a major gas interval in the alkali gluch zone and also hitting gas throughout the entire drill. Leadville is next and news should be announced Monday along with wireline log survey results. Your graph will be right if the results are bad..or be very wrong if the results are good...pretty simple in my mind.
They have now hit Leadville if they are on target with their predictions..some people would know if it is good or bad..I expect it to go into a trading halt first thing Monday. Good luck to the holders.
tech/a
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Your Analysis will be right if the results are good..or be very wrong if the results are bad...pretty simple in my mind.
What Im addressing is Risk and quanyifying it.
You dont see ANY risk and as such quatify it as ZERO risk so you hold.
The Chart (or graph as you call it) indicates there is risk and people are voting with their money.It also indicates that new position holders are not as confident and as such sellers had to drop price to find buyers.
Goodluck on Monday/Tuesday
What Im addressing is Risk and quanyifying it.
You dont see ANY risk and as such quatify it as ZERO risk so you hold.
The Chart (or graph as you call it) indicates there is risk and people are voting with their money.It also indicates that new position holders are not as confident and as such sellers had to drop price to find buyers.
Goodluck on Monday/Tuesday
MichaelD
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I'd suggest to all that GDN's behaviour over the next few days is completely unpredictable, but a very interesting case study.
If, however, I were to take a punt, I'm with tech. The pro traders are likely out. The amateur day traders are losing money hand over fist on the way down and will scramble to get out at the first sign of any strength from here on in.
My prediction anyway?
Bad news = price will fall because of the bad news
Good news = price will fall because of the mad scramble to get out at breakeven or a small profit
Bottom line, though, is that it is not necessary to have a correct opinion of what GDN will do in the future in order to profitably trade it, merely to react correctly to what its price action does.
If, however, I were to take a punt, I'm with tech. The pro traders are likely out. The amateur day traders are losing money hand over fist on the way down and will scramble to get out at the first sign of any strength from here on in.
My prediction anyway?
Bad news = price will fall because of the bad news
Good news = price will fall because of the mad scramble to get out at breakeven or a small profit
Bottom line, though, is that it is not necessary to have a correct opinion of what GDN will do in the future in order to profitably trade it, merely to react correctly to what its price action does.
tech/a
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Chris/Michael.
I have been watching and taking part in a few of these Fundamental stock selections over the past few weeks.
what I see most commomly is decisions being made on
(1) The next announcement.
(2) The possible next announcement.
(3) The whys and where fores of the Current announcement.
This is guess work.
Of about the 6 or so Ive watched closely I havent seen one go through the roof after the initial buying frenzie.
I have seen many great profits turn to avergae OR losses when 100%--500% profits have been staring people fair square in the face.
Its like the Pokie player who has $250 profit and ups his bet---looking for the $1000 and often when he Flukes that its not enough---next stop $5000.
Like these pokie winner wins are Loadly acclaimed---losses---WHAT LOSSES?
I have been watching and taking part in a few of these Fundamental stock selections over the past few weeks.
what I see most commomly is decisions being made on
(1) The next announcement.
(2) The possible next announcement.
(3) The whys and where fores of the Current announcement.
This is guess work.
Of about the 6 or so Ive watched closely I havent seen one go through the roof after the initial buying frenzie.
I have seen many great profits turn to avergae OR losses when 100%--500% profits have been staring people fair square in the face.
Its like the Pokie player who has $250 profit and ups his bet---looking for the $1000 and often when he Flukes that its not enough---next stop $5000.
Like these pokie winner wins are Loadly acclaimed---losses---WHAT LOSSES?
Wysiwyg
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MichaelD said:
This sentence sums up the whole trading game.Even though I am confident of the company proving up a commercially viable acreage it is the majority that determine the price per share.
I see the company on track with their goals and remain optimistic for the future.
tech/a said:
Thats not true Tech. Course I know there is risk. Like I said you would trade or sell your stock on any downswing. Thats how I gather your trading style is.
If I did that then I wouldnt be sitting on some of the large profits that I allready am. Different trading styles. Once again the risk of losing money doesnt outweigh the opportunity I believe to make greater gains. Hence I will hold. If I lose..worst case scenario..Tax loss.
Anyway yeah Im looking forward to Monday.
MichaelD said:
Well you are right it is very unpredictable..I would be surprised if it fell off good news. You guys all have Trading minds (day traders). You dont look at the potential company maker this well could be. If you lose..then you lose.
I have said over and over..you arent holders of a stock. If they prove a commercial well which I am expecting I wont be selling because in the end the blue sky potential of the stock with they grounds they have could be endless.
If there is nothing commercial about the well..I will be out.
I wrote on 27/20/2006,
I said in the above post, "(GDN trading is like) a game of pass-the-parcel … and the music will stop soon!" Well, the music hasn’t completely stopped, but it has become clearer to me that it might be a typical "pump-and-dump" case.
Pump: Misleading information was distributed by the company to pump up the price, such as "... the Leadville Limestone (layer) ... have (sic) been interpreted from seismic data to have the potential to contain up to 3 TCF of gas." (GDN 27/10/2006 announcement). This "3 TCF of gas" claim in the Leadville Limestone layer was completely false, and has been drooped since in later announcements.
Dump: The director dumped 5+ million shares on market at an undisclosed price (~$1).
So I am very sorry for all present GDN shareholders … The music may stop soon… take action now!
Jackob said:
I said in the above post, "(GDN trading is like) a game of pass-the-parcel … and the music will stop soon!" Well, the music hasn’t completely stopped, but it has become clearer to me that it might be a typical "pump-and-dump" case.
Pump: Misleading information was distributed by the company to pump up the price, such as "... the Leadville Limestone (layer) ... have (sic) been interpreted from seismic data to have the potential to contain up to 3 TCF of gas." (GDN 27/10/2006 announcement). This "3 TCF of gas" claim in the Leadville Limestone layer was completely false, and has been drooped since in later announcements.
Dump: The director dumped 5+ million shares on market at an undisclosed price (~$1).
So I am very sorry for all present GDN shareholders … The music may stop soon… take action now!
tech/a
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Chris I really do understand what your saying.
Infact if you followed techtrader the portfolio method posted live for 4 yrs on Reefcap,youd know Im an advocate of longterm holding.I have stock Ive held and still hold for years.
The point Im making here is that a 600% profit is in the taking---something that most stocks take years to achieve.
Its been and gone.
It maybe seen again and in a few years "Could" be another 600% or $6.
Longterm trading you do as you do.
Have less winners "Generally" buy far more return for every dollar risked.
You only need a few really big winners and your so far in front it doesnt matter.
Goodluck to all those holding for longer periods Im sure youll be winners in the end.
Your right in THIS instance Im trading (Commenting) short term,which most seem to be doing and its these that my comments and Michael's are directed.
In the Tech boom a friend bought DVT (Davenet) for 6c and sold for $3.60 something (It did reach $7.00 something) one of those and its beers all round.
Now while thats fantastic He actually lost $340,000 though!!
That WAS his!!
Goodluck.
bigdog
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DPTR - Delta Petroleum are providing the drilling for GDN
There are two US forums/message boards below the cover GDN
The members are interested is in finds by Delta and how much will add to the value of Delta
-- postings include GDN opinions
Thought may be interested in reading what our US folk are saying about GDN
http://www1.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=969&pt=m
http://www.stockhouse.ca/bullboards/forum.asp?symbol=DPTR&table=LIST
There are two US forums/message boards below the cover GDN
The members are interested is in finds by Delta and how much will add to the value of Delta
-- postings include GDN opinions
Thought may be interested in reading what our US folk are saying about GDN
http://www1.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=969&pt=m
http://www.stockhouse.ca/bullboards/forum.asp?symbol=DPTR&table=LIST
Wysiwyg
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Thanks so much for those links doggy.
The first hand experience/explanation by JimisJim and Bigoilers` interpretation were extremely enlightening.Say thanks to your American mates for us.
The ramp up on the Utah reserves is a bit over the top though don`t you think.
Tomorrow may be the day of reckoning for GDN and it`s immediate future as a serious player in the basin. :aus:
The first hand experience/explanation by JimisJim and Bigoilers` interpretation were extremely enlightening.Say thanks to your American mates for us.
The ramp up on the Utah reserves is a bit over the top though don`t you think.
Tomorrow may be the day of reckoning for GDN and it`s immediate future as a serious player in the basin. :aus:
