Was talking on a chat about the Euro and IFO, forgot all about the Pound news, and lucky was all out, when i saw it fall of the cliff.Hope nobody was caught long during the gbp news.
Long now anyone?
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On the daily 1.67 is some major resistance. New longs might wait until that is broken and then place stop a little below in case it violates what would be old resistance new support.
Still short on a weekly chart trade-should be interesting to see if the USD continues an attempt to break the long term downtrend.
Still short on a weekly chart trade-should be interesting to see if the USD continues an attempt to break the long term downtrend.
Kryzz
shaun
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Follow up to my earlier post #9, looks like the cable might still have some legs left, got the abc down, touched the 38.2% retracement and took off again, breaking out of a minor downtrend channel too relabelled the last wave 5 to a running flat a-b-c, if it can push through the resistance at around 1.6785ish, we might see one more wave up imo (not sure about the EW running flat, fits the count though)
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GBP/USD forecast
H4 graph
Having broken the “L-L+” channel the pair went for developing a downtrend. After retreating under level 1.6590 the market has formed a figure of (down)trend’s continuation and headed for testing of level 1.6465 (the lower bound of “B-B+” daily sideways trend).
If the pair eventually drops below level 1.6465, it will get to key support 1.6325 (K trendline). Otherwise, if the market goes for correction from the current level, it will find resistance at level 1.6590, from which we should expect repeated testing of 1.6465.
H4 graph
Having broken the “L-L+” channel the pair went for developing a downtrend. After retreating under level 1.6590 the market has formed a figure of (down)trend’s continuation and headed for testing of level 1.6465 (the lower bound of “B-B+” daily sideways trend).
If the pair eventually drops below level 1.6465, it will get to key support 1.6325 (K trendline). Otherwise, if the market goes for correction from the current level, it will find resistance at level 1.6590, from which we should expect repeated testing of 1.6465.
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H4 graph
The pair is trading along a wide sideways trend, but on its way it gradually drops down, confidently and constantly, by breaking support levels on and on. As long as the market stays below resistance 1.6665 and above support 1.6330, it resides a neutral zone.
Let’s examine the variants of events to proceed:
1. In case the pair drops below a key support 1.6330, it will get to support 1.6110.
2. In case the pair rises above resistance 1.6665, it will get to level 1.6820, and maybe even to 1.6900 (I consider this variant to be less probable then the first one).
Trading recommendations:
Sell below 1.6330 with the target at 1.6110.
Buy above 1.6665 with the target at 1.6820.
The pair is trading along a wide sideways trend, but on its way it gradually drops down, confidently and constantly, by breaking support levels on and on. As long as the market stays below resistance 1.6665 and above support 1.6330, it resides a neutral zone.
Let’s examine the variants of events to proceed:
1. In case the pair drops below a key support 1.6330, it will get to support 1.6110.
2. In case the pair rises above resistance 1.6665, it will get to level 1.6820, and maybe even to 1.6900 (I consider this variant to be less probable then the first one).
Trading recommendations:
Sell below 1.6330 with the target at 1.6110.
Buy above 1.6665 with the target at 1.6820.
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Thinking about the recent strength in the USD, does is this the calm before the storm up or down?
Who will raise rates first?
Who will raise rates first?
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GBP/USD
H4 graph
The pair rose above level 1.5130, which implies breaking of the “B-B+” downtrend. For this reason, in case the pair rises above level 1.5230, we should expect it to reach level 1.5410 (the 4th wave). We may try buying above 1.5130 with the target at 1.5410 and stop loss below 1.5090.
Daily graph
After rising above level 1.5130 the pair got a possibility to leave the “B-B+” downtrend. In case it will get over level 1.5230, the pair will reach its target level 1.5410 (the 4th Elliot wave, a correction wave). Upon the fact of reaching that level I expect a downtrend to develop having the drop target set at level 1.4350 (the 5th wave).
Alternatively, if wave picture fails and in case the pair rises above level 1.5550, then upon the fact of leaving the “F-F+” weekly downtrend the pair will get to level 1.6000 - the higher bound of the green downtrend.
H4 graph
The pair rose above level 1.5130, which implies breaking of the “B-B+” downtrend. For this reason, in case the pair rises above level 1.5230, we should expect it to reach level 1.5410 (the 4th wave). We may try buying above 1.5130 with the target at 1.5410 and stop loss below 1.5090.
Daily graph
After rising above level 1.5130 the pair got a possibility to leave the “B-B+” downtrend. In case it will get over level 1.5230, the pair will reach its target level 1.5410 (the 4th Elliot wave, a correction wave). Upon the fact of reaching that level I expect a downtrend to develop having the drop target set at level 1.4350 (the 5th wave).
Alternatively, if wave picture fails and in case the pair rises above level 1.5550, then upon the fact of leaving the “F-F+” weekly downtrend the pair will get to level 1.6000 - the higher bound of the green downtrend.
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1.48/1.50 some longer-term players getting in, but toe in the water only to assess strength. Fills were easy but becoming a little more patience required.
Thoughts from anyone?
Thoughts from anyone?
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Strategist, that's gotta be some of the sh*ttest price analysis I've seen yet. Your charts are like sphagetti and identify nada.
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posting when hung = lolz for everyone
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ha ha, don't think I'm hung, still smashed!
But in all seriousness, that chart is a mess. There are lines there that aren't even proper trendlines!
white_goodman
BOC
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pppft you noob, cant you see the descending elliot wave count with a ABC pattern followed by a Gann fib expansion, with a butterfly pattern
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Hey man, PTJ uses Elliot wave, dont bag it!
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UK has its Annual Budget by the Labour Chancellor on Wednesday 24th March. A General Election is due anytime and most likely on 6th May. UK has debts of about A$1.6 trillion and a deficit in their tax year to 5th April estimated at about A$260 - A$280 million.
Tax receipts have dropped and despite the increase in VAT (value added tax on goods purchased) by 2.5%, back to 17.5% it is likely to do little to balance the books.
The Labour Chancellor is unlikely to do much with the General Election due and knows the grey vote and the main body of supporters in Mid-England and the North must be kept onside, voting wise.
The election result looks uncertain, but many point to a Labour/ Liberal Democrat Aliance or a Conservative Government with a small majority.
Tax receipts have dropped and despite the increase in VAT (value added tax on goods purchased) by 2.5%, back to 17.5% it is likely to do little to balance the books.
The Labour Chancellor is unlikely to do much with the General Election due and knows the grey vote and the main body of supporters in Mid-England and the North must be kept onside, voting wise.
The election result looks uncertain, but many point to a Labour/ Liberal Democrat Aliance or a Conservative Government with a small majority.
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Correction line 4.
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H4 forecast
The pair is trading along the uptrend, which had the target at level 1.5195. If gbpusd rises above this level, the new target will be seen at level 1.5410 (“X” trendline). Also in such case the “double bottom” figure will be executed.
Otherwise, if the pair fails continuing upside and drops below level 1.5130, we may expect it to get down to level 1.4950 (“a” trendline).
Daily forecast
After rising above level 1.5130 the pair got a possibility to leave the “B-B+” downtrend. In case it will get over level 1.5230, the pair will reach its target level 1.5410 (the 4th Elliot wave, a correction wave). Upon the fact of reaching that level I expect a downtrend to develop having the drop target set at level 1.4350 (the 5th wave).
Alternatively, if wave picture fails and in case the pair rises above level 1.5550, then upon the fact of leaving the “F-F+” weekly downtrend the pair will get to level 1.6000 - the higher bound of the green downtrend.
Weekly forecast
(See daily graph)
The pair is trading along the “E-E+” downtrend having the drop target seen at level 1.4355. Level 1.5410/60 (X trendline) is now the level of turn and resuming of the downside - this is variant #1.
Variant #2 is going to happen on a special case, if level 1.5460 (X trendline) won’t manage to keep the pair from the upside and it gets above level 1.6000. Then the “E-E+” downtrend won’t exist anymore and the pair will reach level 1.6950 (F trendline). After that, if the pair gets over 1.7000, it will eventually end up at 1.8530.
Variant #3 is also worth discussing:
If the downtrend is still very strong after getting down to level 1.4355, the pair may drop to 1.3650 (R trendline from monthly graph).
There is also variant #4:
If the pair loses its downside momentum after getting down to level 1.4355 and rises above level 1.5410, the downtrend will fade and the market will go up to level 1.6950. Next, similarly to variant #2, a “double bottom” figure will be formed and the pair will then rise above 1.8530, to level 1.9500.
The pair is trading along the uptrend, which had the target at level 1.5195. If gbpusd rises above this level, the new target will be seen at level 1.5410 (“X” trendline). Also in such case the “double bottom” figure will be executed.
Otherwise, if the pair fails continuing upside and drops below level 1.5130, we may expect it to get down to level 1.4950 (“a” trendline).
Daily forecast
After rising above level 1.5130 the pair got a possibility to leave the “B-B+” downtrend. In case it will get over level 1.5230, the pair will reach its target level 1.5410 (the 4th Elliot wave, a correction wave). Upon the fact of reaching that level I expect a downtrend to develop having the drop target set at level 1.4350 (the 5th wave).
Alternatively, if wave picture fails and in case the pair rises above level 1.5550, then upon the fact of leaving the “F-F+” weekly downtrend the pair will get to level 1.6000 - the higher bound of the green downtrend.
Weekly forecast
(See daily graph)
The pair is trading along the “E-E+” downtrend having the drop target seen at level 1.4355. Level 1.5410/60 (X trendline) is now the level of turn and resuming of the downside - this is variant #1.
Variant #2 is going to happen on a special case, if level 1.5460 (X trendline) won’t manage to keep the pair from the upside and it gets above level 1.6000. Then the “E-E+” downtrend won’t exist anymore and the pair will reach level 1.6950 (F trendline). After that, if the pair gets over 1.7000, it will eventually end up at 1.8530.
Variant #3 is also worth discussing:
If the downtrend is still very strong after getting down to level 1.4355, the pair may drop to 1.3650 (R trendline from monthly graph).
There is also variant #4:
If the pair loses its downside momentum after getting down to level 1.4355 and rises above level 1.5410, the downtrend will fade and the market will go up to level 1.6950. Next, similarly to variant #2, a “double bottom” figure will be formed and the pair will then rise above 1.8530, to level 1.9500.
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H1 graph
The pair is trading within the sideways trend (striving to transform into downtrend), having rebounded from support 1.5235. The will be staying in a neutral zone while it is located below level 1.5315 and above 1.5210.
There are two variants of events to proceed:
1. It consists of three waves. In case the pair drops below level 1.5210, a potential of drop to level 1.5160 (“a” trendline - the lower bound of H4 uptrend) will emerge. The second stage will begin with rebound from 1.5160. A correction to resistance level 1.5235 may take place right after that, after which the downtrend will be resumed. If then the pair gets down below level 1.5160, it will get to support 1.5070 (“B” trendline - the lower bound of daily uptrend). If during Stage Two level 1.5235 fails keeping the pair from rising and the market gets above level 1.5310, further upside to level 1.5410 will become possible.
2/4. In case the pair rises above level 1.5315 (“z” trendline), it may continue rising to level 1.5410.
Support
1.5235 (intermediate), 1.5160 (strong) and 1.5070 (key)
Resistance
1.5315 (intermediate) and 1.5410 (key)
The pair is trading within the sideways trend (striving to transform into downtrend), having rebounded from support 1.5235. The will be staying in a neutral zone while it is located below level 1.5315 and above 1.5210.
There are two variants of events to proceed:
1. It consists of three waves. In case the pair drops below level 1.5210, a potential of drop to level 1.5160 (“a” trendline - the lower bound of H4 uptrend) will emerge. The second stage will begin with rebound from 1.5160. A correction to resistance level 1.5235 may take place right after that, after which the downtrend will be resumed. If then the pair gets down below level 1.5160, it will get to support 1.5070 (“B” trendline - the lower bound of daily uptrend). If during Stage Two level 1.5235 fails keeping the pair from rising and the market gets above level 1.5310, further upside to level 1.5410 will become possible.
2/4. In case the pair rises above level 1.5315 (“z” trendline), it may continue rising to level 1.5410.
Support
1.5235 (intermediate), 1.5160 (strong) and 1.5070 (key)
Resistance
1.5315 (intermediate) and 1.5410 (key)
