Gann, honestly, is it a good basis for trading?

[It's Snake Pliskin]

In my own case (over 15 yrs) I have probably invested $20k in software and data feeds.
Another $3k on books,and about the same on seminars.

I might add this much wouldn't be required.

Mind you its not found in the conventional tech analysis draw---not for me anyway.

What's the conventional tech analysis?

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Yeh I know what you mean.
7000+ posts and its cost me $500 bucks and countless un paid hrs!

You're not a guru though.

 

[motorway]

As long as a stock is declining one unit per reversal either one, three or five or falling below or under the 45 degree trend line, it still is in a bear market and in a very weak position.
When a stock rallies and crosses the angle of 45 degrees after a strong decline. Then you are ready to put the angles on the other side of the 45 degree angle. Which shows that the stock is stronger in a bear market and may be getting ready to change into a bull market

A Basis for a forecasting Method

Now read " My basis of forecasting By Gann and some of the things he claims will make sense --

"Angles drawn on a chart always keep before you the position of the stock and its trend.......>These angles will show you when the trend changes"-----> ( he then goes on such )Geometric angles are superior to the normal moving averages which are irregular.. Geometric angles which are the (true) moving averages ....move at a uniform rate from any bottom or top...

The units should be of fluctuation ( vibration ) ---which are Units of information & work-done...

Where work is done , energy is transferred. ( ALWAYS )
but it has to be WORK and not just the random
( back to the coin toss question... what fluctuation reveals a trend
sideways is a trend too , important)

Cycles are generated , information is diffused..

Markets deliver information via prices , by changing prices.



motorway

The value of a forum is for the dicussion
It always makes you think
even just trying to explain something

 

[Sean K]

I've been searching back through Yogi's tips and can't find a winner...



And, I asked for a summary which he failed to provide.

Not sure where that leaves him, and Gann..

 

[bunyip]

I've been searching back through Yogi's tips and can't find a winner...



And, I asked for a summary which he failed to provide.

Not sure where that leaves him, and Gann..

Years ago on another forum, Yogi was offering a free bottle of wine to purchasers of his course!

 

[Naked shorts]

LOL, sounds like the same guys today!

First they try squeeze you, then they make it take so long you get bored and jumpy and close up and right at that minute, they HIT IT!

Tricky, perfected, little scum bags!

So thats what it is

 

[motorway]

Then in that Gann Course He talks about 50% retrace etc

ok
"A stock is in a strong postion from the bottom when it is keeping above the 45 degree angle"

Here is a P&F chart..... It is strong also from the TOP ( there are no overhead 45 angles from the top.... THERE are lesser angles though and with P&F they show up on the 3 box reversal.....

Chart starts with the 2003 bull

You should be long already

Next OPTIMAL buy point is at a 50% level
Where the next swing down comes to rest

Why

refer to the pendulum Gif

The time to get on or off.. is when it comes to rest
at that point force of acceleration is MAX and Velocity is MIN

( remember what I said about acceleration and Velocity )

Now the pendulum does not retrace the same path
it moves up or down
Such that halfway points evolve into tops or bottoms

They must ( on average ) That is why trends conform to the 45 degree angle...

It is right here before your eyes

As Gann states We use Angles to save counting

But we should count also ( as P&F chartists did in the 19 th century ..)

If CLV is too small a stock

maybe some Gann Time and Price analysis on the XAO to compare
can be done ?

So there is strength from the bottom
But weakness from the top
in terms of angles ...

but P&F students would note the Fulcrum like base ( & natural trend lines )
and a possible catapult point also

Here the change in momentum is key



motorway

No predictions

as Gann states... This bit is just some good P&F

"Angles drawn on a chart always keep before you the position of the stock and its trend.......>These angles will show you when the trend changes"-----> ( he then goes on such )Geometric angles are superior to the normal moving averages which are irregular.. Geometric angles which are the (true) moving averages ....move at a uniform rate from any bottom or top...

 

[Magdoran]

If I really wanted to further the Gann techniques, I would probably have a closer look at this course: http://www.adest.com.au/

Hi Margaret,

Hope you are well. Interesting to read your perspective on this.

I tend to agree with your assessment on some of these courses. The experience you had in getting some benefit in projecting while finding it difficult to actually trade from effectively seems a common complaint. I suspect part of the problem is that students of these courses are only given pieces of the puzzle and minimal help integrating the ideas into a usable coherent approach.

As for the link above, respectfully I met this guy, and I really don't think he knows much (nice guy, but a practitioner???). He certainly didn't seem to have much to say when he was promoting the Kuppe lecture which I thought was a monumental waste of time. Put it this way, this approach wouldn't be something I'd recommend (for what my opinion's worth).

Again, I'd say McLaren's work is the exception. There are also people out there prepared to help others to get their heads around these concepts. I found getting a trading group together of people keen on sharing ideas worked very well. (By the way, Bunyip mentioned he didn't have an affiliation with McLaren, and either do I for the record, just so that's clear.)

This idea of "pressure points" I suspect is a SITM creation. I agree with the criticism laid out that many of these don't really amount to much when viewed in a one dimensional uninformed way. Some dates are relevant and other's aren't. That's because they are being viewed in isolation without reference to the pattern of trend. In my view working without the critical pieces of the puzzle is like trying to fly a plane with key components missing (like the engine for example).

Time cycle analysis works very differently. Yes the concept of division of the range (price) works in fractions (eights and thirds) like many people use this kind of extension/retracement tool. Time while having similarities to the price range is more complex because you're adding a whole dimension/paradigm of thinking into the mix because it involves both the relationship to price and to pattern (at least the way I do it). What does this mean? It means you need to be able to perceive markets in a multi dimensional way - I look at the pattern first, then time, then price in that order (although this is not necessarily always the case, there are some situations where price can be of primary interest). McLaren's time factor work I found was a good starting point.

Note that there can be multiple cycles running concurrently (this makes things messy sometimes if you don't understand and recognize this). Also, the pattern of trend tells you a lot about what is going on. Also you need to look in multiple time frames (daily charts, weekly, monthly) to understand the different trends active at the same time - a move in one time frame (e.g. Daily) is the dominant trend, while in another (e.g. Monthly) it is a counter trend. This is critical in my view. Also wave theory can be very helpful here too.

There can also be harmonic cycles running concurrently in the same time frame (daily/weekly/monthly). This can also become confusing if you aren't aware of it. If you perceive these, then the whole process of determining probabilities and trades becomes much simpler.

Also, just because you hit a key date in a cycle you have identified does not mean that trend is over and a reversal will occur (and you can be wrong when you do this on several fronts - which cycle, determination of where it is in the cycle, placement of key points in the cycle, missing other cycles running concurrently, different cycles in other time frames, and this is off the top of my head, there are many more).

When you hit a key time and price (if you're projection is valid enough you hit these), you can get extensions to a cycle or a retracement for a specific increment (like the division of the range in price into eights and thirds, same for a time period, but it is not that simple - there are multiple inputs to determine when and how to do this). Also, sometimes the market trends to the cent or date, but sometimes it can be out by a margin - this is common, and there are reasons for this.

How markets trade into "key dates" (assuming your analysis is valid) tells you a lot about the trend. What we're trying to do is to constantly assess the risk to our trade, and determine when the trend is at risk. This is so we know when to take partial profits to ensure winning trades don't become losing trades. How you take profits can vary widely. Me, I have a range of alternatives. Full exit, partial exit (e.g. half, one third for less risky trades, two thirds for more risky trades), or hedging (diagonal ratio back spread, direct sale in a different strike but same expiry, mix of futures and options in multiple time frames and ratios etc).

So once you've hit a time/price point, this is a point to assess what to do. Some are where key reversals occur, some are continuation points, some result in brief counter trends. Some are minor in the cycle you are looking at, others are major. But it is the pattern of trend that is critical. This must be viewed in the context of the pattern and the aggregate of all the cycles that are active in multiple time frames, and any harmonic cycles that are active. This is multi-dimensional unlike other approaches, hence it must be contextual. This is where most people flounder. In my view trying to use this kind of approach without understanding this is like flying blind.

Hope this helps

Mag

 

[Magdoran]

In answer to the question "why are Gann's materials not straight forward", this is a perspective - My suspicion as to why the Gann material is so incoherent and convoluted is that we just don't know what is valuable or not on face value:

1) Lifetimes work: These materials were created over a lifetime, and like anyone dealing with a complex subject discarded some ideas along the way, perhaps erroneously sometimes - some ideas if improved that were discarded may prove useful to someone talented enough to enhance the idea. Other ideas were modified and refined.

2) The breadth of the materials - there is a lot to go through, and what there is is not ordered in a conventional sense.

3) The authenticity of the materials: a lot of the materials are apocryphal (of dubious authenticity) - there are stories the works were in a large storage area and sold off to a collector in an "as is" condition - in disorder. For me this means we can't be sure of what came from where. It's a bit like the debates people have over the "correct" version of ancient texts.

4) The clarity of the materials: This isn't a cogent treatise. This is a "scrambled egg" / "Dog's breakfast" of materials, some almost completely incomprehensible, others I suspect deliberate red herrings, and the occasional lightning flash of inspiration buried in the rambling text. Gann wasn't that good at expressing himself (assuming the surviving materials attributed to him are authentic).

5) Deliberate misdirection: Gann perhaps deliberately threw in some red herrings too just to make things hard, or so we're told. There are a lot of errors mathematically in the original works, so I'm not sure if it was sloppy work or deliberate misinformation, or some kind of "code" that some people believe he was communicating through.


So in my view it's up to each individual to do their own research and think it through. Because of the above reasons this makes the value to a trader/investor of any secondary source necessarily highly variable. Some sources are very selective (sometimes in a worthwhile way, and sometimes not.). Yes there is a lot of nonsense intermingled with the "good stuff". Hence my suggestion to go to a good source and locate what is of value quickly. some areas will appeal to one person and not another, and some areas require a certain disposition to grasp. Some areas are possibly redundant, or even erroneous.

That's why in this field you can't get a straight answer because it just doesn't lend itself to the same treatment as a "Guppy" book for example. Even the works of Elliott, and Prechter and Frost have been interpreted and reinterpreted (Poser, Neely, Fischer, etc etc). Just because it takes a little bit of intellectual elbow grease doesn't necessarily lead to the conclusion there is no value in it.

I would have thought that the amount of times wavepicker and I showed that forecasting styles can be very useful to understanding the way markets trend would at least open up the possibilities that there may be something of value to these perspectives (EW and parts of "Gann"). The next point is the question of how to trade using this analysis. I have tried to show that this analysis allows a very wide range of approaches. Variables such as trading/investing time frame, strategy (which instrument in which market), and system (entry, exit, hedging, and profit taking rules) can vary widely just like any of the other paradigms. Even more so because there are several different ways you can use the analysis.

For me I trade pieces of a move based on probabilities. I trade very differently in different time frames, and with different instruments. Each approach is custom built based on the variables. In one example I look for fast trends and trade a specific part of a trend, and get out when the trend is at risk. Other times I trade counter trends in a contrarian fashion. Sometimes I do both simultaneously. Sometimes I look for arbitrage opportunities. The possibilities are endless, and I see it as empowering oneself to paint ones own picture of probability and risk management.

Hope that makes sense.

Mag

 

[explod]

I promised Tech/a that I would discuss Gann in a few days, however we are going away to visit a Brother in law who became ill over the weekend.

The book I have is Gann's own text and was published about 1946 which I wil reference when I get it out of storage.

His language is straight forward and at the time reminded me of the writings of my Grandfather who was prolific in writing to the press for a better deal for wheat farmers.

Sometimes these older texts have been loaded onto the net as one I read frecently on money during the great depression by a fellow named Von Misers. The Age yesterday ran a piece by Emile Zola on a piece of fiction prefaced on the fall of banks around 1880. Sounded just like Wall Street today. My ears pricked on this writer as he was a childhood friend and confidant of Paul Cezanne who in my view was the father of modern art. Two kids who made it big time in two different fields; unusual.

I am not placed to say yea or nay as to such contributions to trading which is the subject of this thread but I do assert that some of this old material has a lot to offer in understanding where we have come from and on which we may build a better understanding to make our own choices for the future

 

[tech/a]

There is much I agree with in Moggies post.

Thanks Explod.
The question posed is it a good basis for trading.
I guess my extension to this is it worth the 10,000 hrs to become proficient enough in applying it.

Its the application of the analysis I'm interested in.
Does it give consistent profit.
Is it stand alone analysis.
Can I get the same or better results using a much simpler to understand method.

Without demonstration I and many others it seems are left with NO as the answer to 1 and 2 and yes to 3

 

[Timmy]

Magdoran – thanks for these two posts re Gann.

One of my peeves with Gann, and more so those who discuss his techniques, is the use of convoluted jargon and attempts to shroud the methods in a veil of secrecy and mystery, as if one needs to access some secret code to understand it all. Your two posts above show that ideas can be conveyed in a clear and concise way, thanks for that.

For anyone wanting a well structured and clear introduction to Gann, and for FWIW, I found James Hyerczyk’s book, Pattern, Price and Time to be very helpful.

 

[motorway]

Note that there can be multiple cycles running concurrently (this makes things messy sometimes if you don't understand and recognize this). Also, the pattern of trend tells you a lot about what is going on. Also you need to look in multiple time frames (daily charts, weekly, monthly) to understand the different trends active at the same time - a move in one time frame (e.g. Daily) is the dominant trend, while in another (e.g. Monthly) it is a counter trend. This is critical in my view. Also wave theory can be very helpful here too.

If you want to follow / predict / anticipate etc Trends/cycles/waves

You have to follow it down and up through the various time frames as this one trend slows and speeds

To think in terms of Time frames is an error

What ever is moving it moves NOW right now in the present moment... But the speed of moving is dynamic

( when I drive My car to a location . I just drive, there is no weekly daily monthy about it. And if you have a collision .. It does not unfold on different time frames How can it ? Impossible )

Wave theory ? How can you possible follow a wave in one time frame or even multi time frames ?

You have to follow the wave as it changes speed
Across all Time frames , The wave crosses all time frames because from the waves point of view They don't exist..

( If you want to avoid collision you do it right now , and then it's gone
You dont't have to avoid the same collision on different time frames.. )

You have to move and FIRST...

This is the difference between Dynamic methods
and Static ones..





motorway

 

[motorway]

Mr. W. D. Gann says the trouble with most chart makers is that they work with only one factor - space movements or charts which record one to two points up or down - whereas there are three or more factors to be considered, space, volume and time. The most vital is time, and back of that is the cause of recurrence of high or low prices at certain intervals.
1922

By early 1900's There was a proliferation of Point and figure charting methods using geometrical angles... Gann seems well aware of this.

( They were not space charts but charts of movement through space Big Difference Like his mistake with Harriman , He does not seem to be aware of this )

Why did he translate such methods to tIME charts...

In His own words

W. D. GANN FINANCIAL SERVICES

This Service possesses many superior, advantages over other classes of service, because it has the one thing lacking in all other services-the time element. My discoveries of a Master Time Factor and the Great Cycle enable me to forecast markets years in advance. I do not depend on space charts based on space movements alone, because these would make errors and cause losses. I use volume combined with the proper time charts, which help me to determine the technical position of the stocks much better and a long time before the statistical position is shown. Time tells on all things.

The object of this Service is to give you valuable advice based on scientific methods and to show you how to help yourself. Only a fool makes mistakes without learning something. I have benefited because I have made mistakes in the past and made losses. I can show you-how to avoid the mistakes that most of the traders make in Wall Street.

Investors and traders are always willing to pay for what will help them to make a greater success. It pays to get the best scientific knowledge, because the best is always the cheapest in the long run and you can not expect to get something good for nothing. Experience has taught me that the best way to help others is to show them how to help themselves, and if I can get subscribers to read my books and learn my Methods, they make a greater success following my Service.

After you have learned all of the rules laid down in TRUTH OF THE STOCK TAPE and WALL STREET STOCK SELECTOR and have learned how to apply them, I am sure you will agree that I have given you more than your money's worth in these books. You will then be ready for a post-graduate course and will probably want to know how to forecast according to my Master Time Factor,

and determine the years when stocks will have big advances and reach final tops and also the years and the cycles when panicky declines are indicated.


W. D. GANN

Gann could tell you what stock to buy or sell..............Years in Advance and WHEN

Why ?. because he knew what time would show on a clock

Years in advance




motorway

 

[gazelle]

One of my peeves with Gann, and more so those who discuss his techniques, is the use of convoluted jargon and attempts to shroud the methods in a veil of secrecy and mystery, as if one needs to access some secret code to understand it all. Your two posts above show that ideas can be conveyed in a clear and concise way, thanks for that.

I can understand your frustration in trying to correctly interpret and apply the techniques and strategies of Gann but it is very hard work and does require considerable application and alot of research time . One thing I have learnt is you cannot just read Gann with the expectation of learning and applying his principles in a short period of time . Gann had an extensive range of techniques from 50% mid zones . Geometric Angles . Permanent Charts and alot more . The Geometric Angles for instance have to be properly calibrated to what instrument is being traded which is why some people prefer to use hand drawn charts . Geometric proprtion can occur on several levels both in the Fibbonacci and Gann sequence so an understanding of the symmetrical relatioship between time and price co ordinates is quite an important study also . If market structure is in directional alignment with a Geometric time and price relationship it might indicate the possibility of a change in trend . There is always a tendency that something might happen at a predetermined time or price level and the only way we will know if this becomes an actuality is after the event . Time is an important componet and Time is multidimensional in nature . Gann used the proportionate parts of the circle as a measuring gauge which also mark out the change of seasons . So there is a lot to learn and it takes time to integrate the various techniques and apply them in a logical and practical manner .

The position of the observer is different to the position of the practitioner becasuse the practitioner has has walked the path and made alot of mistakes and met alot of challeges on the way . This is not an exact science at least for me but it has bought me closer to understanding the laws and cycles that govern and affect market trends at various points in time . Gann practitioners are quiet and not forthcoming not because they have the keys to the market but because they have worked dilligently and possibly uncovered a few aspects that they would like to retain under their own intellectual property . Its like anything there are possibilities and probabilities but turning a probabilty into an actuality is the difficult part .

Over the next short while I will try and list some potential trades that are on the radar . they might be in a few weeks or a few mths , it all depends on how things setup . Please understand that I will not offer a breakdown of my trading technique but if anyone is genuine and wants to learn about some foundation techniques I would be happy to help out .
A trade that I am looking at is CBA . There is a possibility that the stock might complete an intermediate high into Thursday the 23rd April . If this theory is supported by increased volatity and other aspects I will take the trade . If someone would like to post an eod chart with dates under the important highs and lows and corresponding price points we will do some work on calculating potential price points .

 

[Sicilian Trader]

A trade that I am looking at is CBA . There is a possibility that the stock might complete an intermediate high into Thursday the 23rd April . If this theory is supported by increased volatity and other aspects I will take the trade . If someone would like to post an eod chart with dates under the important highs and lows and corresponding price points we will do some work on calculating potential price points .

Sounds promising, looking forward to the analysis.

Thanks Gazelle

 

[tech/a]

If someone would like to post an eod chart with dates under the important highs and lows and corresponding price points we will do some work on calculating potential price points .

You dont have a charting package?
You dont have a Picture capability like Printkey?

 

[gazelle]

I have Gann trader and a very well used Square of Nine .
Gann Trader works on Dos so it is almost impossible to capture a copy of the screen and post it , I had my friend over a few months ago who is very good with computers because I am not , and he couldnt do it . which is ok , just follow my request and if someone posts a chart it will be clearer for people to follow . I will only discuss price techniques though .

 

[Trader Paul]

I have Gann trader and a very well used Square of Nine .
Gann Trader works on Dos so it is almost impossible to capture a copy of the screen and post it , I had my friend over a few months ago who is very good with computers because I am not , and he couldnt do it . which is ok , just follow my request and if someone posts a chart it will be clearer for people to follow . I will only discuss price techniques though .

Hi Gazelle,

CBA ..... chart attached, marked with 2003-2007 leg up & 50% retracement
targets ahead, for both time and price .....

have a great day

paul



=====

 

[Boggo]

Hi Gazelle,

CBA ..... chart attached, marked with 2003-2007 leg up & 50% retracement
targets ahead, for both time and price .....

have a great day

paul



=====

Paul, are you telling us that it took all of that Gann analysis to tell us where 50% retracement is, I can eyeball that on a blank chart !