Gann, honestly, is it a good basis for trading?

[Trader Paul]

A trade that I am looking at is CBA . There is a possibility that the stock might complete an intermediate high into Thursday the 23rd April . If this theory is supported by increased volatity and other aspects I will take the trade . If someone would like to post an eod chart with dates under the important highs and lows and corresponding price points we will do some work on calculating potential price points .

I have Gann trader and a very well used Square of Nine .
Gann Trader works on Dos so it is almost impossible to capture a copy of the screen and post it , I had my friend over a few months ago who is very good with computers because I am not , and he couldnt do it . which is ok , just follow my request and if someone posts a chart it will be clearer for people to follow . I will only discuss price techniques though .

Hi Gazelle,

CBA ..... previous chart was simply a longer-term overview ..... so, give us
the specific dates, that you want highlighted and we'll repost the CBA chart, accordingly .....

have a great day

paul



=====

 

[motorway]

I have Gann trader and a very well used Square of Nine .
Gann Trader works on Dos so it is almost impossible to capture a copy of the screen and post it , I had my friend over a few months ago who is very good with computers because I am not , and he couldnt do it . which is ok , just follow my request and if someone posts a chart it will be clearer for people to follow . I will only discuss price techniques though .

Square of nine relates to an interesting question

How share prices trend

This was quite a controversy from about the 1920s

People realized you could not draw long term straight trend lines on linear charts
price trends on such charts were curves....

One solution was the log scale chart where curves become straight lines
This has become standard approach today

eg esp with multi year charts

But there is problems with it with low prices
and volatility ...

Square root scales through the 1930s and 50s had strong advocates

This was seen as a parabolic scale midway between arithmetic and log

One well know TA exponent uses it today and it survives also in uses where it isn't seen as such ...

Templeton used it..

as did Dunnigan mentioned in the thread by weird

on Gann

point, Mr. Gann, or whoever, came to realize that stock charts DO NOT have a "strong tendency" to follow linear trend lines, which is true for the long term trends, and then concluded, at the time, that they must be following a PARABOLA. Unfortunately, HE, she, or they, were wrong. Although, HE, she, or they: were on the right track!

After having over fifty years of historical stock data to work with, it is absolutely clear that stock trends have a "strong tendency" to follow EXPONENTIAL GROWTH CURVES ( This is log charts )

I do not think it is quite that clear
there is still the problem with low prices

eg for Dunnigan this was under $40

And there is still the problem of where the true halfway point is
but maybe not if you define it dynamically.



motorway

 

[Magdoran]

If you want to follow / predict / anticipate etc Trends/cycles/waves

You have to follow it down and up through the various time frames as this one trend slows and speeds

To think in terms of Time frames is an error

What ever is moving it moves NOW right now in the present moment... But the speed of moving is dynamic

( when I drive My car to a location . I just drive, there is no weekly daily monthy about it. And if you have a collision .. It does not unfold on different time frames How can it ? Impossible )

Wave theory ? How can you possible follow a wave in one time frame or even multi time frames ?

You have to follow the wave as it changes speed
Across all Time frames , The wave crosses all time frames because from the waves point of view They don't exist..

( If you want to avoid collision you do it right now , and then it's gone
You don't have to avoid the same collision on different time frames.. )

You have to move and FIRST...

This is the difference between Dynamic methods
and Static ones..

motorway

Ah, the enigmatic "motorway",

Nice analogy with the car, but aren't we talking about two totally different paradigms here (chalk and cheese?)?

I don't understand your point. You need to clearly define precisely what you mean by the term "Dynamic" (this term seems a misnomer from my point of view when you are describing what to me looks like a two dimensional viewpoint of the market).

From your comment, I don't think you understand my point at all, or conceptually grasped what I'm describing. Otherwise if you have developed a superior understanding, why aren't you making precise time and price calls to the day, or to the cent, or both? I can't remember you making a call? If you have, please post a link so I can see them.

Let me be clear. McLaren holds that there are vibrations running through all markets at all times. In some cases these cycles can be evident for decades. Just like in EW theory you have different degrees when counting waves (as demonstrated by wavepicker for those who've really studied his posts and have grasped them), the same is true for the magnitude of cycles. A counter trend in one time frame (monthly) can be the dominant trend in the daily chart - like the correction in 1987 was a counter trend to the broader bull trend in the longer term.

What is difficult to understand about that? It's about looking at the macro and the micro, and being aware of the context of the micro. How hard is that? Hence a monthly chart tells a different story to a daily chart, doesn't it?

So it's more like being an observer from a satellite of traffic patterns in a city rather then driving the car. You can rapidly see where the congestion is (forgive the pun) well before you encounter it!

You can borrow my GPS for you car if you like motorway! Might help you navigate a bit better!

Regards

Magdoran

 

[gazelle]

Those long term squares can be significant turning points in particular when 1/2 of the square in time and price lineup but as this date is quite a time in the future we will wait and just look at the position of CBA . My initial expectation was for a top into this date which could still be the case . The second expectation is for a counter trend low into this date if the market continues heading down into the 23rd . Either one of these outcomes is quite acceptable and think due to the nature of the cycles and times moving into proportional alignment this date will either give us the opportunity to position long at the time of a counter trend low or if the first scenario works out we will look at going short if time is technically validated by price in some form of geometric capacity. Having two possibilities isnt really a problem because if you have a comprehensive understanding of mkt structure and the type of trend moving into the forecast date you just let the mkt confirm your analysis . Having two possible scenarios requires two sets of price calculations . potential downside targets should be identified printed out and kept on your desk and on the nominated date if the stock is running down into time we have a structural roadmap on where we might expect price to reverse . this could be a minor 50% level or it could be a .618 range extension . if you have all of the bases covered both upside and downside targets price on that day will confirm your analysis . As the move eventuated from the 23rd Jan primary low and the 9th March secondary low these are important calculation points . Ranges should be labbelled in time not trading days and ranges should be labelled by price . this is all we have to work with . Most people have no idea about the proper application of the Square of Nine . You will note that the sp500 low at 667 was square or 90 degs from the 6th March or 345 Deg .

 

[motorway]

Ah, the enigmatic "motorway",



I don't understand your point. You need to clearly define precisely what you mean by the term "Dynamic"

Regards

Magdoran

The difference between following something dynamically
or statically....

Through time frames dynamically or in a time frame statically..

There is only one high on the chart and one low
in relation to other highs and lows
There is not a daily weekly or monthly high or low

If your string the course of sales out keeping the structure of the spacing (dynamic time ) There is only a series of events happening in different moments..

You can zoom in or out but only by keeping the dynamic time structure
The same spacing proportions.. Can you keep proportion.

The course of sales is not spaced out in clock time periods

The analogy with driving the car is correct in a sense

They move the same in that
both are dynamic , they change speed
sometimes they stop , sometimes they travel fast

you can only predict if you know what the dynamic time will be
in the future...

You can only predict where the car will be if you know how fast it will be travelling , tomorrow ..

But you only know how fast it is travelling now and how fast it has been travelling...

Unlike the clock you can not predict in the same way with dynamic time

I know what time will be on the clock a 100 years from now
But that is the beguiling nature of static time..



motorway

 

[motorway]

So it's more like being an observer from a satellite of traffic patterns in a city rather then driving the car. You can rapidly see where the congestion is (forgive the pun) well before you encounter it!

You can borrow my GPS for you car if you like motorway! Might help you navigate a bit better!

Regards

Magdoran

I think you do understand
When you zoom out you are still only looking at the present moment

You are not looking into the future

yes we can zoom out and look back in time and see the past price behaviour
and see what lies from that point up ahead till the prsent moment

yes we can see the past and the present

But we can not see tomorrow

You are looking back to the car from the congestion that exists in the present.
here is where your use of the anaolgy fails , All these cars exist in the one dynamic moment in the present,,

There are no coarse of sales that exist now that are up ahead that we can see in the present moment..

What you are saying is that ( the car congestion )

You look at what is on the chart now and take postions several weeks back in the past


motorway

 

[Trader Paul]

Those long term squares can be significant turning points in particular when 1/2 of the square in time and price lineup but as this date is quite a time in the future we will wait and just look at the position of CBA . My initial expectation was for a top into this date which could still be the case . The second expectation is for a counter trend low into this date if the market continues heading down into the 23rd . Either one of these outcomes is quite acceptable and think due to the nature of the cycles and times moving into proportional alignment this date will either give us the opportunity to position long at the time of a counter trend low or if the first scenario works out we will look at going short if time is technically validated by price in some form of geometric capacity. Having two possibilities isnt really a problem because if you have a comprehensive understanding of mkt structure and the type of trend moving into the forecast date you just let the mkt confirm your analysis . Having two possible scenarios requires two sets of price calculations . potential downside targets should be identified printed out and kept on your desk and on the nominated date if the stock is running down into time we have a structural roadmap on where we might expect price to reverse . this could be a minor 50% level or it could be a .618 range extension . if you have all of the bases covered both upside and downside targets price on that day will confirm your analysis . As the move eventuated from the 23rd Jan primary low and the 9th March secondary low these are important calculation points . Ranges should be labbelled in time not trading days and ranges should be labelled by price . this is all we have to work with . Most people have no idea about the proper application of the Square of Nine . You will note that the sp500 low at 667 was square or 90 degs from the 6th March or 345 Deg .

Hi Gazelle,

Updated CBA chart ..... :0

CBA ... January and March 2009 lows come in 45 degrees apart and your
23042009 target date is exactly square (90 degrees) from 23012009 low.

Today's gap-down in price action also formed a spinning top, which will
be confirmed by a break and close below today's low ... making for further
weakness, going into your target date .....

..... will leave the rest to you ... !~!

have a great day

paul



=====

 

[gazelle]

we can determine that the the mass of a moving object increases as the velocity of the object increases but how can we understand and calculate the underlying laws or characteristics that are governing and controlling the impulses and magnitude of such an instrument . A stationary car might accelerate between two linear points at a predetermined speed which enables us to calculate an approximate time of arrival between the two projected points being the starting point and the arrival point . If the vehicle is travelling at a predetrmined speed between the two points of reference we will be able to approximately calculate an estimated point of arrival at a time into the future but the outcome is lagely dependant upon the charcateristics of the driver and what events may transpire between point A & B . Classical Logic would indicate that a vehicle travelling at 60mph at a starting point of Point A would travel 60 miles in 60 minutes to arrive at point B . This is a pure linear example and doesnt take into consideration the possible variables that the driver may encounter on the way between the two points . Is the road straight and is the driver able to maintain a fixed speed between the two pre ordained points or are there are series of bends in the road that may affect the projected time distance between the two pionts . Classical physics tells us that a specific amount of force is required to increase the velocity of a moving object by a given amount which is why a given amount of force applied for a given amount of time will increase a single freight car to a greater velocity than the same amount of force applied for the same amount of time to an entire train . All observations are in the the proper context according to the observer .

 

[gazelle]

Yogi 45 & 90 fixed cycles . there is alot more though .

 

[motorway]

we can determine that the the mass of a moving object increases as the velocity of the object increases but how can we understand and calculate the underlying laws or characteristics that are governing and controlling the impulses and magnitude of such an instrument . A stationary car might accelerate between two linear points at a predetermined speed which enables us to calculate an approximate time of arrival between the two projected points being the starting point and the arrival point . If the vehicle is travelling at a predetrmined speed between the two points of reference we will be able to approximately calculate an estimated point of arrival at a time into the future but the outcome is lagely dependant upon the charcateristics of the driver and what events may transpire between point A & B . Classical Logic would indicate that a vehicle travelling at 60mph at a starting point of Point A would travel 60 miles in 60 minutes to arrive at point B . This is a pure linear example and doesnt take into consideration the possible variables that the driver may encounter on the way between the two points . Is the road straight and is the driver able to maintain a fixed speed between the two pre ordained points or are there are series of bends in the road that may affect the projected time distance between the two pionts . Classical physics tells us that a specific amount of force is required to increase the velocity of a moving object by a given amount which is why a given amount of force applied for a given amount of time will increase a single freight car to a greater velocity than the same amount of force applied for the same amount of time to an entire train . All observations are in the the proper context according to the observer .

yes but that is the point that is dead reckoning from what is happening ( (nothing like Magdoran looking into the future and seeing tops and bottoms with his birds eye view and taking positions today)

We can certainly make forecasts like that
But that is far from predicting like Gann talks about in the above quotes





People make such predictions all the time
Straight line projections from what is happening..

OIL ( it is moving at such a speed.. with increasing momentum ) --->$200 !!

etc



motorway

 

[gazelle]

Thanks Yogi . You have always been a distant friend and someone who operates on the level . Right or wrong doesnt matter to me as it is Gods will .
I am not disciplined and strong enough to be religious and walk the line but I still believe .

 

[nunthewiser]

good grief !

 

[Bobby]

good grief !

~

 

[gazelle]

I am sorry I had a crack at you Bobby . I am sure you are a nice guy . As you know I study and swear by the principles of WD Gann , this suits me and is everything I have worked towards , what you do is your conern . Stick to what you know and works best for you .

 

[Bobby]

I am sorry I had a crack at you Bobby . I am sure you are a nice guy . As you know I study and swear by the principles of WD Gann , this suits me and is everything I have worked towards , what you do is your conern . Stick to what you know and works best for you .

Ok Gazelle , good luck with your Gann trading .

:bier:

 

[nunthewiser]

Ok Gazelle , good luck with your Gann trading .

:bier:

what trading ?

 

[gazelle]

I would be interested in what you are looking at Bobby . If you want another perspective I might be able to help . tell me where you are ..

 

[Bobby]

I would be interested in what you are looking at Bobby . If you want another perspective I might be able to help . tell me where you are ..

Thanks for the offer but I'm happy being just a discretionary trader now.

Off to bed , sweet dreams

 

[tech/a]

what trading ?

I dont think its about TRADING
its more a Study.


Similar to Philosophy.
I'm certain Gann was a reincarnation of Lao Tzu.

 

[Sicilian Trader]

A trade that I am looking at is CBA . There is a possibility that the stock might complete an intermediate high into Thursday the 23rd April . If this theory is supported by increased volatity and other aspects I will take the trade . If someone would like to post an eod chart with dates under the important highs and lows and corresponding price points we will do some work on calculating potential price points .

Hi Gazelle

Have been reading with interest.

Can you walk me through your trade rationale for CBA?
Did you end up taking the trade?
How many units did you buy and using what instrument?
When did you enter?
What is your price target?
What was/is your risk on CBA?
Where did you put your stop loss?

I am just interested to see if all this analysis/study actually resulted in a trade of some kind (apologies if I have missed any answers to these questions in your previous posts).

Thanks
ST