Timmy
white swans need love too
- Joined
- 30 September 2007
- Posts
- 3,457
- Reactions
- 3
Why not. But spell it allowed to keep the pedants (like me) off yer back!
Gann, honestly, is it a good basis for trading?
- Thread starter Splint
- Start date
Why not. But spell it allowed to keep the pedants (like me) off yer back!
- Joined
- 7 March 2009
- Posts
- 122
- Reactions
- 0
I really appreciate the background of Darvas, as i didn't know all that about him
I think i better let you know though, i was being sarcastic about those boxes! All he was doing was taking low risk entries and using sound money management! The boxes do nothing to the actual share price
Brad
What? No! you mean, just because he mentally drew a box around the prices, that didnt result in prices going up??? No magic??
Sh*t, ive misread the whole book then. No wonder my boxy analysis hasnt been working, thanks Brad. I will now focus my attention on the full moon and shooting stars strategy. Please dont tell me that is hocus pocus as well?? I dont want to hear it mate. Seriously
- Joined
- 7 March 2009
- Posts
- 122
- Reactions
- 0
go on, tell us what you really think of gann
Well as you can tell I'm not a fan
I spent valuable time on this when starting out , just wish this someone had warned me then ' ST ...
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
- Joined
- 14 October 2004
- Posts
- 20,400
- Reactions
- 6,317
Gazelle.
Why not post up a few trades with analysis to enlighten us.
Perhaps 5 or so so we can see how consistent gann is.
No need for 5 pages of entry and exit explaination perhaps something like
Entered here off square of 9 and Exit here at confluence of pressure points.
But I'm sure we would all appreciate something tangable.
Show us why its worth the 10,000 hrs of study.Your obviously an advocate who writes pages and pages---yet Ive never seen a trade?
Your latest I read called a top a week or so ago. I note the Ords is still moving forward.
Look forward to your support of your creed.
lol, you gotta be kidding me.
All successful trading requires hard work and application to succeed, which is why so few do.
How do you know Bobby was too "ignorant & lazy"? How do you know how many hours he put into study on Gann? Bobby also couldn't be too closed minded if he did attempt to understand Gann.
If you think Gann is the holy grail of trading you're kidding yourself. If Gann is so hard too understand and apply, requires hours & hours of study and so few can truly understand/apply it, why bother? There are other methods that require less work and produce the same or better results - ie profit.
To me at least Gann is a bit like some of the Elliott Wave theorists around, they get so bogged down in the theory of their method they overcomplicate their trading. All the very good traders I've seen have kept things relatively simply, trading is a hard enough game without trying to over think everything.
I work off the KISS principle because I'm not smart enough to do anything else
.My
- Joined
- 7 March 2009
- Posts
- 122
- Reactions
- 0
Gazelle
I would be very interested in this as well.
As tech said in the gann thread, there just needs to be one that steps up to the plate.
You could that white knight for all ASF Gannists who have been persecuted all these years on these forums. You could be that Black Swan that disproves the theory that ALL swans are white.
How about it?
Tech . The last projection for the SP500 was calculated for the 3rd April . The actual top was on the 2nd I think at 842.50 then price ran down into April 7th 815.55 which was 27 points . This price move didnt turn out to be overly significant as expected and since this time the trend has reversed and continued up . The other projection was for the FTSE which completed a marginal top into April 2nd 4125 before running 200 points down into the 8th April . Using Time and being able to anticipate a point where you might expect a change of trend to occur is an advantage because you can outline your plan in advance and make an assesment on the day as to whether time and price co ordinates are setting up in an anticipated manner . In the case of the SP500 trade the time was quite close but other technical factors were not in alignment which is why I decided against taking a trade . Making a possibility become an actuality is almost impossible . Just because a market is running out a 90 or 180 day cycle doesnt always neccesitate a change in trend on that particular day although the proportionate parts of the circle in time can provide us with directional clues if there is a harmonic balance between both variables . On the nominated date the market completed an interim high into this date although it could have also completed a cntr trend low into this date also . it could have turned out to be nothing which is sometimes the case . As time approaches we are in a more qualified position to predict the probability of an event occuring but not the event itself which is why I setup two possible scenarios as I knew the date was a fairly significant timing point but I couldnt gauge whether price was going to high into this date or low into a cntr trend until a day before or the actual day of the high . In this case you set your stops at your nominated level and let the market move its course. if you get stopped out you move onto the next setup .
- Joined
- 2 September 2008
- Posts
- 1,038
- Reactions
- 1
All well and fine
Now lets see the broker statements to prove you actually traded what you said
Brad
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
- Joined
- 14 October 2004
- Posts
- 20,400
- Reactions
- 6,317
Yes I do understand Gazelle.
But you'd have to admit with targets a month or so out you'd have a watchlist like a dictionary!
I gather you dont use Gann as a sole trading instrument.
perhaps similar to my use of Elliott.
But you'd have to admit with targets a month or so out you'd have a watchlist like a dictionary!
I gather you dont use Gann as a sole trading instrument.
perhaps similar to my use of Elliott.
- Joined
- 27 February 2008
- Posts
- 4,670
- Reactions
- 10
lol@ simpleton
funny thread this one
funny thread this one
- Joined
- 16 June 2005
- Posts
- 4,281
- Reactions
- 6
I'm no Gann expert - probably only did about 30% of tthe SITM course a few years ago, so haven't got all the tools in the toolbox. I spent (wasted?) about three years going through all Gann's books on my own and trying to find whatever I could on the internet to help put the pieces of the jigsaw together - but with no luck.
My understanding is that Gann's methods incorporate other TA techniques including supply and demand in volume and several sections in a cycle to complete in strong trends - while not EW, it has some things in common including range equality and similar structure. Old tops become support, etc, etc. He also used to divide market ranges into eighths where the 50% was the most important, followed by three eights and five eighths. All close to fib levels techniques. He said to count the days between tops to tops, lows to lows as well as ranges. He said to watch for anniversary dates as well as seasonal time (eg. 91 days is a quarter of the year; 182 days is half, etc.), Then there are various squares that work with both time and price. That's only touching very briefly on what I understood, but there is definitely more duckies to line up then just using time alone. Most of the above is found in Gann's book, "How to make profits in commodities"
Why Gann experts don't want to be more specific, I don't know. I wish they would as I would have been interested to learn a bit more. Magdoran has posted quite a bit on his style of Gann Analysis, but I don't think he actually posted live trades. I think McLaren is one that has traded his style of Gann analysis, but I think it was only available through subscription.
I have seen a few of them make calls and some of those calls have been accurate, but how or if they traded them, I don't know. A bit like the original EW thread - all very interesting, but how to actually trade those forecasts seems vague at best.
I sometimes wonder if it's because it's too easy to get caught up in the analysis and become more analysts than traders. I know I fell into that category when learning Gann. I have gone right off forecasting. If I see interesting dates coming together, it's the time to see if other, more conventional TA lines up.
For example, I have quickly sketched up some calendar day charts in the last few days. I notice that there were 21 calendar days from the XJO low of 23rd Jan to the lower high of the 13th Feb. Then another 21 calendar days to the low on the 6th March. (Technically I think there was a slightly lower low on Monday 9th March). Today, the run up has taken 42 calendar days from the 6th March, equaling the distance in time from the those two lows. Plus there was some range equality in the last two ranges up. Just simple stuff.
The difficulty comes that one is then bucking an otherwise strong trend. And all this analysis may only produce a pause - no guarantees that it will produce a major reversal and really no other confirmation at this stage that this cat has finished climbing the wall.
I too am hoping Seekandfind or Gazelle or any other experienced Gann technician will come to the challenge and at least walk us through how they actually arrive at a trade entry. But then, unless they do it within seconds of the actual trade, they get howled down with "hindsight" trades. So, it's probably pretty tough on their side of the fence as well.
My own conclusion is that it really doesn't matter which method you use as long it works for you. Some people gravitate to spending a lot of time on indepth analysis - each to their own...
Anyway, here's a link to the late Neil Costa's site - lots of free articles on Gann if anyone's interested... http://www.marketmasters.com.au/articles_.html
My understanding is that Gann's methods incorporate other TA techniques including supply and demand in volume and several sections in a cycle to complete in strong trends - while not EW, it has some things in common including range equality and similar structure. Old tops become support, etc, etc. He also used to divide market ranges into eighths where the 50% was the most important, followed by three eights and five eighths. All close to fib levels techniques. He said to count the days between tops to tops, lows to lows as well as ranges. He said to watch for anniversary dates as well as seasonal time (eg. 91 days is a quarter of the year; 182 days is half, etc.), Then there are various squares that work with both time and price. That's only touching very briefly on what I understood, but there is definitely more duckies to line up then just using time alone. Most of the above is found in Gann's book, "How to make profits in commodities"
Why Gann experts don't want to be more specific, I don't know. I wish they would as I would have been interested to learn a bit more. Magdoran has posted quite a bit on his style of Gann Analysis, but I don't think he actually posted live trades. I think McLaren is one that has traded his style of Gann analysis, but I think it was only available through subscription.
I have seen a few of them make calls and some of those calls have been accurate, but how or if they traded them, I don't know. A bit like the original EW thread - all very interesting, but how to actually trade those forecasts seems vague at best.
I sometimes wonder if it's because it's too easy to get caught up in the analysis and become more analysts than traders. I know I fell into that category when learning Gann. I have gone right off forecasting. If I see interesting dates coming together, it's the time to see if other, more conventional TA lines up.
For example, I have quickly sketched up some calendar day charts in the last few days. I notice that there were 21 calendar days from the XJO low of 23rd Jan to the lower high of the 13th Feb. Then another 21 calendar days to the low on the 6th March. (Technically I think there was a slightly lower low on Monday 9th March). Today, the run up has taken 42 calendar days from the 6th March, equaling the distance in time from the those two lows. Plus there was some range equality in the last two ranges up. Just simple stuff.
The difficulty comes that one is then bucking an otherwise strong trend. And all this analysis may only produce a pause - no guarantees that it will produce a major reversal and really no other confirmation at this stage that this cat has finished climbing the wall.
I too am hoping Seekandfind or Gazelle or any other experienced Gann technician will come to the challenge and at least walk us through how they actually arrive at a trade entry. But then, unless they do it within seconds of the actual trade, they get howled down with "hindsight" trades. So, it's probably pretty tough on their side of the fence as well.
My own conclusion is that it really doesn't matter which method you use as long it works for you. Some people gravitate to spending a lot of time on indepth analysis - each to their own...
Anyway, here's a link to the late Neil Costa's site - lots of free articles on Gann if anyone's interested... http://www.marketmasters.com.au/articles_.html
Why would anybody even consider listening to his outlandish ways of trading the stock market?
That question is easily answered.....
Gann methodology purports to offer a way of consistently and accurately forecasting financial markets.
Can you imagine what this would mean for traders? It'd be a licence to print money!
So when you get people making such claims about Gann methods, and offering to teach these methods through books or courses, is it any wonder they catch the attention of wannabe traders?
Is it any wonder that some of these wannabe traders spend considerable time and effort chasing the Gann promise of forecasting excellence?
Is it any wonder that some of them swallow the bait and wade in with their cheque books and credit cards to get hold of this supposedly sure-fire way of making money?
Is it any wonder that sundry sharks prey on this shoal of bait fish by charging big money for Gann courses?
Anyone thinking of buying a Gann course should ask themselves this question......'If anyone does in fact have an analysis method which amounts to a virtual licence to print money, would they sell that method?'
Well I don't know about the rest of you, but I personally would maybe share it with just a few close friends and relatives, but largely I'd keep it to myself. Why would I do otherwise?....if I knew in advance what the markets were going to do, I could double my trading accounts several times each year. Even a small account of just a few thousand dollars would grow to a staggering figure in just a couple of years.
Maybe 'seekandlearn' can post a chart or two and walk us through a couple of his successful trades to show us how it's done. It doesn't matter to me if it's after the event - we can still analyse the method and trial it ourselves on future trades to see if it has any merit.
I don't go along with this idea of challenging people to post their trades live, or produce their trading statements to prove the validity of their methods.
I can tell you this.....if you trade successfully and have done so for a number of years, you don't feel under any obligation to prove anything to anyone. If you're of generous nature and genuinely want to help your fellow traders, you'll post examples of trading strategies work for you, you'll admit that not every trade is profitable, and you'll invite anyone who's interested to test your methods for themselves to see if they have anything to offer.
I don't go along with this idea of challenging people to post their trades live, or produce their trading statements to prove the validity of their methods.
I can tell you this.....if you trade successfully and have done so for a number of years, you don't feel under any obligation to prove anything to anyone. If you're of generous nature and genuinely want to help your fellow traders, you'll post examples of trading strategies work for you, you'll admit that not every trade is profitable, and you'll invite anyone who's interested to test your methods for themselves to see if they have anything to offer.
Gazelle
Can your Gann analysis consistently put you into trades right at the beginning of new trends, and take you out right at the end of those trends?
If it can, then please show us how.
If it can't, then what exactly can your method do that translates into significantly better profits than standard technical analysis?
From what you've said above I can see that you genuinely believe your Gann analysis is giving you an edge.
I hate to be the one to rain on your parade, but after reading your post I'm not convinced that your method offers any worthwhile advantage over simpler analysis methods.
From the well known 1909 interview
"It is impossible here to give an adequate idea of the law of vibrations as I apply it to the markets. However, the layman may be able to grasp some of the principles when I state that the law of vibration is the fundamental law upon which wireless telegraphy, wireless telephone and phonographs are based. Without the existence of this law the above inventions would have been impossible."
I have examined every quotation of Union Pacific prior to & from the time of E. H. Harriman, Mr. Harriman's was the most masterly. The figures show that, whether unconsciously or not, Mr. Harriman worked strictly in accordance with natural law."
The bold bit explains everything one needs to know ..
Of the illusory side of Gann..
It follows from that , that the edifice appears to be built on this false premise..
There was a very good reason why Harriman was so masterly .
Why he bought at the bottom and sold at the top .
There was nothing unconscious about it or accidental.
But the reasons Gann saw were incidental and spurious
Like those pigeons of behavioral psychology fame..
Coincidences that needed ever expanding tweaks and additions
But could never work..
Because they were not It..
completely real
relatively real
relatively unreal
completely unreal
All methods fall into one of those categories
The many built on false foundations can never
aspire to be of the first degree
At best they waffle on about risk management
and position sizing etc
At worst they look to the stars
Purely My
motorway
"It is impossible here to give an adequate idea of the law of vibrations as I apply it to the markets. However, the layman may be able to grasp some of the principles when I state that the law of vibration is the fundamental law upon which wireless telegraphy, wireless telephone and phonographs are based. Without the existence of this law the above inventions would have been impossible."
I have examined every quotation of Union Pacific prior to & from the time of E. H. Harriman, Mr. Harriman's was the most masterly. The figures show that, whether unconsciously or not, Mr. Harriman worked strictly in accordance with natural law."
The bold bit explains everything one needs to know ..
Of the illusory side of Gann..
It follows from that , that the edifice appears to be built on this false premise..
There was a very good reason why Harriman was so masterly .
Why he bought at the bottom and sold at the top .
There was nothing unconscious about it or accidental.
But the reasons Gann saw were incidental and spurious
Like those pigeons of behavioral psychology fame..
Coincidences that needed ever expanding tweaks and additions
But could never work..
Because they were not It..
completely real
relatively real
relatively unreal
completely unreal
All methods fall into one of those categories
The many built on false foundations can never
aspire to be of the first degree
At best they waffle on about risk management
and position sizing etc
At worst they look to the stars
Purely My
motorway
explod
explod
- Joined
- 4 March 2007
- Posts
- 7,341
- Reactions
- 1,197
Have you studied his books, from your post I doubt it.
Gann was a good trader over many years. He also put in many years of historical research, in those days spending years at the library collecting data from old newspaper. From such work (there were many others) has grown the foundation of much we now enjoy aided by our computers to make good trades if we follows the rules and have the discipline.
It is easy to make off handed criticism but Gann's work is extensive and a lot of study of him is required to gain the whole benefit and picture of where he is coming from. I do not profess to know it all, and as a trader very fallable as most who are truthfull admit, but many basics of Gann have stood me in good stead. eg. sell when everyone else is buying and vice versa and above all follow the trend of not just the stock but particularly the product that is making it so.
However in this dscipline Gann is only a small part, there are very many other great traders and writers of same to be digested over time to, in fact the way that the markets change so rapidly we need to gleen all that we can get our hands on.
Often I also see crticisms of Robert Kyosaki, sure his focus is on selling books but his words are very good for those seeking to learn about investing, they are all starting points only, and if they did not provide them someone else would and they too would be criticised for putting there hand out.
When you have produced what these types of researchers have put forward then just maybe one can criticise. I suspect however with the scholarship requied to do that you may then find yorself holding them up in admiration.
No one today would set off like Burke and Wills to cross the continent, they did, they died and it could be said that they were a failure. However they are held up as great pioneers opening up a dry and hostile country.
So lets look at the good in Gann and many others and thank them for the legacy left to us for the taking if we bother to pick up the books. And you dont have to spend a cent, it can be picked up on the net with ease these days.