Gann, honestly, is it a good basis for trading?

[ducati916]

Magdoran

Ever heard of this chap?

As you will see this interviewee lives in New Zealand. Lake Taupo to be specific. Beautiful area, in the winter lots of skiing to be had, in the summer sailing etc on the lake. Anyway, read this interview.

John Needham is a well known and highly regarded author and market analyst in Australasia, who lives and works by the shore of Lake Taupo, New Zealand, over 8,300 air miles from Chicago. Mr. Needham, through extensive research, has demystified Chapter 12 of the Bible’s Old Testament Book of Daniel, using proprietary algorithms to convert the biblical “time” referenced into “price” point indicator for support and resistance levels of a market. Mr. Needham, a Solicitor of the Supreme Court of NSW, Australia, is the owner of Danielcode Online that offers market educational and consulting services as well as a charting, FX advisory, and managed account programs.
John Gallwas: Tell our readers a little about yourself and what events may have precipitated your interest in the financial markets and trading.

John Needham: I was Chairman of two publicly traded companies when I was in my late 20s and I had quite an involvement with the Sydney Stock Exchange where the then Chairman and his family were family friends. My father was Chairman and CEO of another publicly traded company, the Manly Ferries, so stock prices and markets were always part of the family discussion. When I started my law practice I specialised in commercial law with a lot of corporate M&A activity, so that too kept me thinking about markets.

John Gallwas: What led you to the discovery of the algorithms that convert details contained in the Book of Daniel to what is now known as the Daniel Code?

John Needham: I became interested in trading financial markets 20 years ago. As a lawyer I assumed that I could learn trading techniques the same way so as I had learned the law so I embarked on the well worn route of buying every trading book I could and going to numerous seminars all over the world to be “taught” how to trade. Seven years, $200,000 USD, and 400 flying hours later the realisation struck me that either I was inordinately stupid or there was something radically wrong with my teachers because I still couldn’t trade profitably. About this time a very famous trading “guru” who can still be seen on financial television shows came into my Australian law office. He was involved in some unpleasant litigation in Melbourne, Australia and wanted me to handle his case.

At the time as I was issuing writs in the Supreme Court on his behalf and incurring costs in my law office I asked him give me a retainer, but he said he didn’t have the money!! Here was this “guru”, on TV every week, giving his view on markets and teaching people like me how to trade, that couldn’t pay my fees. The penny dropped with me then, and I concluded that none of the research including; Gann, Elliott Wave, patterns, mechanical indicators etc were going to help me become a successful trader.

I packed away the books, charts, whirling numbers, overlays, fancy computer programs and the rest of the detritus I had accumulated in my fruitless search for knowledge in trading and for two years suspended my market research. But, gradually it dawned on me that I should think about the thing I knew; the law. “Why” I asked “is the law so certain. How is it we know what is legal and illegal?” The answer to that question is actually the answer to everything else.

Where do you suppose that our system of laws came from? Whether you think of yourself as religious or not, if you live in a western democracy you are living under a code of “common” law also called “Biblical” laws. So as people turn to the law for guidance, this lawyer turned to the source of our laws, the Bible. And as promised, there it was in Chapter 12 “The Book of Daniel”.

John Gallwas: How is the Daniel Code different from the other “indicators” that we are familiar with, and how can it be used to structure trading signals?

John Needham: The Daniel numbers are leading indicators as opposed to almost all other market tools which are lagging indicators, and this distinction is not generally known to market participants, which is important. In addition, the Daniel number sequence is not anther variation of any known market analysis methodology because it is based on number sequences that are thousands of years old. Finally the trading method we use is reasonably short term (1-3) days. Based on our experience, we believe that about 85% of market turns are made very close to the Daniel numbers. However, it requires analytical skills on the part of the trader to be able to distinguish between a code numbers that recognizes a Daniel price level and code numbers that will turn the market.

John Gallwas: What services do you currently offer through the Daniel Code Online?

John Needham: The main function of Danielcode-Online is to provide the Daniel number sequences on a variety of markets. We cover a wide variety of cash and futures markets as well as 17 Forex pairs. We provide weekly and daily charts on these markets as well as some shorter term charts on selected markets. There are also time-turn indicators. The basic service is available for traders and is used by them in making their own trading decisions. For those that don’t have the inclination or are unwilling to take the time necessary to actively monitor the trading indicators, a managed trading program using the Daniel numbers for the cash Forex markets is exclusively available through Striker Securities. For your readers we have arranged a free trial to the Daniel Code Online that can be accessed at our website www.thedanielcode.com by registering and using the code “strikertrial”.

John Gallwas: Is there anything in “What’s New” that you can share with our readers at this time?

John Needham: To our knowledge no one else had discovered our algorithms to decipher the numbers found in the Book of Daniel. Whilst we have used it for private trading and for a handful of private clients for some years, the trading world only heard about it in December 2007, when we decided to make the Daniel Code available to other traders. The Daniel Code website, (see above) covers the basic approach to trading the Daniel numbers. The Trading Reports tab shows some of the trading results that the Daniel Code has achieved including some historic calls in forex markets. In addition the articles we have written for the “Financial Sense” report detail the discovery and development of the algorithms and their applications to a wide range of markets. We can say that the Daniel Code is new, unique and we think your readers will find it both challenging and amazing.

Ok, if you’ve read this far, and not yet consigned this guy to the nut-house, you might actually want to give this a try. If you do, boy, have I deal for you. For an undisclosed length of time, as long as his marketing campaign lasts I guess, you can try this methodology for free. Never say you get nothing for free here. Go to the link http://thedanielcode.com/display.php?nav=register

Now, if you try it, and it’s the dogs bollocks…you must let me know, and I’ll personally drive down south to Taupo and meet this guy.

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

I posted this previously...

Gann is a very hot topic in other areas of the world when any discussion of Technical Analysis is tabled. Australia & the UK both have ardent adherents who will post charts that simply boggle the brain to try and figure out even where the closing price actually is [I’ll find one later to update this post]

I have seen little interest shown in the US, Ganns home country, so it will be interesting to see if there are any practitioners on this site.

Bachelier is also the prime driving theory behind “Efficient Market Theory”

With regards to Gannism;
Gannism is esoteric, not easily understood, possibly highly discretionary, and thus always viewed with suspicion.

As to the origins of the time theory element to Gannism the following caught my attention.

In 1913, a PhD was published by Bachelier in France, and demonstrated via rather complex mathematical equations that, price fluctuations grow in range and will be proportional to the square root of time

Stock prices in the United States over the last 100 years have 66% of the time fluctuated within a range of 5.9% on either side of their average.
The range in a course of a year has not been 72% or a multiple of 12 [year] rather, it has averaged around 20%

This is 3.5 times the monthly range.
The square root of 12 = 3.46

Therefore, while I know very little about Ganns methodology, certainly the evidence is overwhelming in regards to the element of time in being an important factor and consideration.
An article, that relates to Gann angles quotes the following;
quote:

________________________________________
But exactly just what did Mr Gann write about angles? For anyone with an original Gann course, if they will turn to the first page of the section titled The Basis of My Forecasting Method, looking at line 10 from the bottom; they will read the following quote. “There are three kinds of angles-the vertical, the horizontal, and the diagonal, which we use for measuring time and price movements.” Today every usage called “Gann angles” uses “diagonal angles” only. Yet the Master says we must use all three angles-the vertical angle, the horizontal angle, the diagonal Angle. Definitely not the last and least important, the diagonal angle alone.

Interestingly, this is another application of higher mathematics, referring to chaos

This is chaos in the mathematical definition, not your standard day-to-day useage.

In it’s simplest form chaos can be written;
4x{1 - x}
Computing the value of *x* of that expression for some initial value of *x* then substituting this answer back into the original expression starts a feedback loop.

Repeating this simple iterative process repetitively produces surprisingly complex, unpredictable mathematical behaviour.

The mathematical behaviour expresses the same kind of disorder produced by non-linear equations

The simplest non-linear equation;
Xn+1 = KXn - KXn(1 - Xn)

This equation determines the future value of the variable x at the time step n + 1 from the past value of x at time step n

This is known as the logistic equation
All well and good, but, what the hell is this to do with the Gannies?

Logistic equations are used in Medicine to predict population expansion, via Birth rates, Death rates, due in part to availability of food, water, arable land, disease etc.

It can also be used in ecology, for populations of insects, crops, etc.
Gann was interested in commodities.
Wait, there’s more.

The logistic equation is a quadratic equation with a linear first term, and, a non-linear second term

It is the non-linear, or feedback component that is important.

For a given value of K once a starting point Xo is specified, the evolution of the system is fully determined. One step, inexorably leads to the next.
The whole process can be pictured on a graph.

It forms a parabola, that opens downwards.
There is a short-cut provided via the graphical representation, that avoids endless computations.

Re-read the quote at the start of this post;

The addition of a 45 degree line up from the horizontal axis [representing the line Xn+1 = Xn]
The best course is to steer is from Xo vertically to the parabola to reach X1 then horizontally to the 45 degree line, and vertically back to the parabola.

These paths or Orbits give the first indication of which routes lead to the erratic behaviour of chaos

Whereas some orbits converge, on one particular value, others jump back and forth among a few possible values, and many roam, never settling anywhere.

When K is between 1 & 3, just about every route no matter where it starts, is eventually attracted to a specific value called a fixed point which occurs where the parabola intersects the 45 degree line at x = [k - 1]/k This corresponds to to a steady state or equilibrium

Therefore, taking the previous mathematical work performed by Bachelier, combined with a logistic equation, and you can reproduce seemingly Gann.

The question is, historically, who, and at what date, was the initial work completed in logistic equations?

How did Astrology get involved?
Mathematicians have always historically been associated with planetary movements orbits etc.

Then we have Kondratieff and the macro-wave. There are smaller waves that correlate to the smaller business cycle waves, for example Jugler cycles. I’ll explore business cycles in greater detail.

The takeaway point is this; much work on markets, in any timeframe is cyclical in nature, with the down or destructive phases being essential for upswings, with the upswings responsible for the downswings.

When the swings are artificially manipulated, strange things happen.

jog on
duc

 

[bunyip]

The late Neil Costa spoke at an ATAA meeting quite a few years back when he was working for Safety In The Market.

It was about March or April from memory, can't recall what year it was. Based on his Gann calculations, he said the All Ords would rise almost until the end of that year, then before Christmas we'd see 'the mother of all crashes'. He named a figure that the market would fall to.
The market finished the year more than 600 points higher than his forecast, and 'the mother of all crashes' never materialised.
He also gave forecasts of numerous 'time by degrees' dates for the remainder of that year. The market was supposed to have certain reactions on these dates. I wrote all of them down and followed them throughout the year to see how accurate he was. Suffice to say that he didn't even come close to achieving worthwhile accuracy.

This was a bloke who had a reputation as being one of Australia's foremost Gann experts, working for David Bowden whose ads boldly proclaimed 'Learn from the best in the world'.
People were outlaying around 25 grand for the series of courses run by Safety in The Market.
Bowden sold millions of dollars worth of courses, but was happy to let people believe he'd made his money trading the commodity markets.

When Costa left Safety in The Market and started his own trading education outfit, he did an about face and denounced as con artists the people who sell courses that teach methods of forecasting financial markets. He didn't bother to mention that he himself was one of those people not so long ago.

I am yet to see anyone demonstrate that Gann trading methodology offers the sort of advantages that translate into sensational trading profits, or even gives any advantage over standard technical analysis techniques such as trading off support and resistance, trading from chart patterns, riding trends etc.
And let's face it.....sensational trading profits are exactly we could achieve if only we could find a method of accurately and consistently predicting the markets.

 

[Sicilian Trader]

interesting read bunyip, i too heard something similar only recently

it just amazes me how an educational outfit can charge 25g when there is a range of material free or at a fraction of that price

I have had some dealings with safety in the market in the past and i am not entirely convinced about them either

its interesting you mention david bowden, he doesnt have a publicly available trading record and i would also argue than 95% of his wealth has come from educational courses

reading about everyone's successes, failures and general trading pursuits on this forum spanning over several years, i find it incredibly hard to believe that the likes of a SITM can turn an everyday joe blow, into a well round professional trader in x amount of months when so many people here have been trading for so many years and still dont make a consistent profit year on year

also, the amount of forecasts and predictions that have appeared on these forums that have been subsequently be wrong, simply amazes me. What is even more astounding is these same people jump on the forum the next day and make a similar bogus prediction without acknowledging their previously mistaken prediction, not even an explanation of it.

Surely if one makes 100 predictions, 5 or 6 have to be right. And even if they are right, what are chances that that same person is putting their money where their mouth is, knowing full well that they have been wrong the vast majority of the time --- i would argue very little chance. So what is the point?

Like all healthly discussions, I welcome any arguments on the contrary , supported of course with evidence.

Also, has anyone had any recent experiences with safety in the market that they would like to share with others, whilst we are on the topic?

 

[bunyip]

I've seen quite a bit of the Safety In The Market material through mates who did all the SITM courses. My dentist was one of them. None of them were consistently profitable from trading the Gann methodology. That doesn't necessarily prove that Gann methods don't work....maybe they weren't applying them correctly.
But when seven or eight different people tell you they could never produce consistent profits despite spending 25 grand on Gann courses - well, you have to wonder how much validity the method has.
I know people who challenged David Bowden to make his trading statements available to prove his trading ability. I was one of them who personally emailed him. He never responded to any of us.
Larry Williams challenged Bowden to back up his claim of 'Learn from the best in the world', by offering to engage him in a trading contest. Bowden didn't take up the challenge.
The oldest trick in the world for market forecasters who want to try and gain some credibility, is to make lots of forecasts, then heavily publicise the few that come true. My contacts claimed that's what Bowden used to do, although personally I didn't see it.
I know a few traders who did both David Bowden's courses, and also courses by Bill McLaren who has quite a reputation as a Gann expert. They said McLaren's material was far more useful, not to mention a lot cheaper, than SITM's material.

I'd be the biggest Gann fan in the world if the method could reliably tell me in advance what any market was going to do. But the fact is that it can't do that consistently. I saw it again and again when I went in for dentist appointments, and my dentist would haul me into the back room where he had three big tables arranged side by side, one touching the other, and hand-drawn Gann charts all over the tables. Some of these charts were ten or twelve feet long, and were comprised of several charts stuck together with sticky tape. When price went off a chart, he'd stick another chart to it so that he could continue the chart uninterrupted.
He had lines drawn all over these charts, I think he called them Gann lines or Gann angles or something similar. He'd point to a line and say 'the market should change direction when it gets to this line, but if it doesn't, then we can expect it to go to this next level further up here. And if it goes straight through that line, then this next line up here should mark the turning point'.
This all seemed a bit airy fairy to me....a bit like predicting rain for next Friday, but if there's no rain on Friday then Sunday is the next likely rainy day, and if not Sunday then let's try next Tuesday.
Time and again I saw the market go straight through those lines on the chart without even missing a beat. On the odd occasion that price did in fact turn at one of these predetermined levels, I couldn't see any real advantage to be gained. You can trade profitably simply be reacting to what the market is doing, rather than trying to predict what it might do in future.

My dentist told me about a dentist friend of his who was making 5 grand a week by using the Gann Square of Nine to trade the SPI. About six months or so later I asked him how the other dentist was going, was he still making 5 grand a week. He told me the other bloke was no longer trading. Presumably he crashed and burned.
Here again, this doesn't prove that the Square of Nine is not a valid trading technique. But I've seen this sort of thing repeatedly over the years with Gann exponents.....one minute they're making a fortune from trading the Gann Square of Nine or the Square of 144 or Time By Degrees, or some other Gann technique. Next time I talk to them six months or a year later, they're no longer trading.

Perhaps some of the Gann traders can post charts on here that clearly demonstrate how the method lives up to its claim of being able to accurately predict markets.
If they can do that, or if they can demonstrate in some way how Gann technique can be used to gain a very clear edge that translates into significantly improved trading profitability, then I'll be happy to change my views on the usefulness of Gann analysis.

 

[Boggo]

I'd be the biggest Gann fan in the world if the method could reliably tell me in advance what any market was going to do. But the fact is that it can't do that consistently.

Perhaps some of the Gann traders can post charts on here that clearly demonstrate how the method lives up to its claim of being able to accurately predict markets.
If they can do that, or if they can demonstrate in some way how Gann technique can be used to gain a very clear edge that translates into significantly improved trading profitability, then I'll be happy to change my views on the usefulness of Gann analysis.

bunyip, that was what I asked a while ago on page 1 of this thread and no examples were forthcoming.
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=13871

I was genuinely interested in trying some of the methods but needed some potential long or short trades to use as an example of entry using daily data.

I know that as an amateur with EW I can still make a buck as it throws up daily potential long and short trades (WBC ?) but I cannot yet identify or find anyone to provide an example where Gann does the same.

There is some free Gann software (it was only available for a cost) on this site http://www.gannalyst.com/
Not sure I can be bothered though as I have yet to see an example where I can apply a potential entry, stop and R/R process to the theory but I am still open to input.

 

[bunyip]

bunyip, that was what I asked a while ago on page 1 of this thread and no examples were forthcoming.
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=13871

I was genuinely interested in trying some of the methods but needed some potential long or short trades to use as an example of entry using daily data.

I know that as an amateur with EW I can still make a buck as it throws up daily potential long and short trades (WBC ?) but I cannot yet identify or find anyone to provide an example where Gann does the same.

There is some free Gann software (it was only available for a cost) on this site http://www.gannalyst.com/
Not sure I can be bothered though as I have yet to see an example where I can apply a potential entry, stop and R/R process to the theory but I am still open to input.

The big winners from Gann would appear to be those who sell Gann courses.
A method of accurately and consistently predicting the markets is the sort of stuff that traders dream about.
Little wonder then that so many dodgy outfits have sprung up that purport to teach us how to be Gann super traders with incredible market forecasting ability.
Little wonder that so many people swallow the bait and flock to pay big money for these courses that frequently turn out to be largely a waste of money.

 

[Magdoran]

Magdoran

Ever heard of this chap? ...

Now, if you try it, and it’s the dogs bollocks…you must let me know, and I’ll personally drive down south to Taupo and meet this guy.

jog on
duc

Hi Duc!

How are you? Nice to see you're still around.

The answer is no, I haven't heard of this guy.

"The Daniel Code" sounds dubious to me. I could be wrong, but it sounds like another "dog and pony show" to me, set up to prey on the unwitting people trying to learn how to trade/invest, ripe to be plucked by the course sellers.

If I had the time I'd probe it a bit, but honestly my intuition is that this is not a good candidate to find much if anything of value.

So, how is NZ treating you? Shame we couldn't meet up when I wad flying over the pacific. Unfortunately my pst file corrupted, and all the backups failed probably due to the move. Hope you still have my email address.

Anyway, Duc, I'd suggest not putting too much effort into this one. Nice to hear from you!

Kind Regards

Mag

 

[Magdoran]

The late Neil Costa spoke at an ATAA meeting quite a few years back when he was working for Safety In The Market.

It was about March or April from memory, can't recall what year it was. Based on his Gann calculations, he said the All Ords would rise almost until the end of that year, then before Christmas we'd see 'the mother of all crashes'. He named a figure that the market would fall to.
The market finished the year more than 600 points higher than his forecast, and 'the mother of all crashes' never materialised.
He also gave forecasts of numerous 'time by degrees' dates for the remainder of that year. The market was supposed to have certain reactions on these dates. I wrote all of them down and followed them throughout the year to see how accurate he was. Suffice to say that he didn't even come close to achieving worthwhile accuracy.

This was a bloke who had a reputation as being one of Australia's foremost Gann experts, working for David Bowden whose ads boldly proclaimed 'Learn from the best in the world'.
People were outlaying around 25 grand for the series of courses run by Safety in The Market.
Bowden sold millions of dollars worth of courses, but was happy to let people believe he'd made his money trading the commodity markets.

When Costa left Safety in The Market and started his own trading education outfit, he did an about face and denounced as con artists the people who sell courses that teach methods of forecasting financial markets. He didn't bother to mention that he himself was one of those people not so long ago.

I am yet to see anyone demonstrate that Gann trading methodology offers the sort of advantages that translate into sensational trading profits, or even gives any advantage over standard technical analysis techniques such as trading off support and resistance, trading from chart patterns, riding trends etc.
And let's face it.....sensational trading profits are exactly we could achieve if only we could find a method of accurately and consistently predicting the markets.

Hello Bunyip!

Long time no see. Amazing who is coming out of the "woodwork". Hope you are well.

I tend to agree with your estimation here about Neil Costa and David Bowden.

However, I still think McLaren's work is worthwhile as we discussed a few years ago.

I think you are spot on though that reading the chart is at the heart of good technical analysis irrespective of what you "bolt on" to it. I suppose this comes down to personal preference, doesn't it?

Mag

 

[Magdoran]

I've seen quite a bit of the Safety In The Market material through mates who did all the SITM courses. My dentist was one of them. None of them were consistently profitable from trading the Gann methodology. That doesn't necessarily prove that Gann methods don't work....maybe they weren't applying them correctly.
But when seven or eight different people tell you they could never produce consistent profits despite spending 25 grand on Gann courses - well, you have to wonder how much validity the method has.
I know people who challenged David Bowden to make his trading statements available to prove his trading ability. I was one of them who personally emailed him. He never responded to any of us.
Larry Williams challenged Bowden to back up his claim of 'Learn from the best in the world', by offering to engage him in a trading contest. Bowden didn't take up the challenge.
The oldest trick in the world for market forecasters who want to try and gain some credibility, is to make lots of forecasts, then heavily publicise the few that come true. My contacts claimed that's what Bowden used to do, although personally I didn't see it.
I know a few traders who did both David Bowden's courses, and also courses by Bill McLaren who has quite a reputation as a Gann expert. They said McLaren's material was far more useful, not to mention a lot cheaper, than SITM's material.

I'd be the biggest Gann fan in the world if the method could reliably tell me in advance what any market was going to do. But the fact is that it can't do that consistently. I saw it again and again when I went in for dentist appointments, and my dentist would haul me into the back room where he had three big tables arranged side by side, one touching the other, and hand-drawn Gann charts all over the tables. Some of these charts were ten or twelve feet long, and were comprised of several charts stuck together with sticky tape. When price went off a chart, he'd stick another chart to it so that he could continue the chart uninterrupted.
He had lines drawn all over these charts, I think he called them Gann lines or Gann angles or something similar. He'd point to a line and say 'the market should change direction when it gets to this line, but if it doesn't, then we can expect it to go to this next level further up here. And if it goes straight through that line, then this next line up here should mark the turning point'.
This all seemed a bit airy fairy to me....a bit like predicting rain for next Friday, but if there's no rain on Friday then Sunday is the next likely rainy day, and if not Sunday then let's try next Tuesday.
Time and again I saw the market go straight through those lines on the chart without even missing a beat. On the odd occasion that price did in fact turn at one of these predetermined levels, I couldn't see any real advantage to be gained. You can trade profitably simply be reacting to what the market is doing, rather than trying to predict what it might do in future.

My dentist told me about a dentist friend of his who was making 5 grand a week by using the Gann Square of Nine to trade the SPI. About six months or so later I asked him how the other dentist was going, was he still making 5 grand a week. He told me the other bloke was no longer trading. Presumably he crashed and burned.
Here again, this doesn't prove that the Square of Nine is not a valid trading technique. But I've seen this sort of thing repeatedly over the years with Gann exponents.....one minute they're making a fortune from trading the Gann Square of Nine or the Square of 144 or Time By Degrees, or some other Gann technique. Next time I talk to them six months or a year later, they're no longer trading.

Perhaps some of the Gann traders can post charts on here that clearly demonstrate how the method lives up to its claim of being able to accurately predict markets.
If they can do that, or if they can demonstrate in some way how Gann technique can be used to gain a very clear edge that translates into significantly improved trading profitability, then I'll be happy to change my views on the usefulness of Gann analysis.

Hello Bunyip,

Interesting to see you re-emerge after so long.

All:

Bunyip in my view is a highly experienced and very seasoned trader. For the record I tend to agree with the majority of his viewpoints. It is mainly on this one topic that we have alternative opinions. Hence, I'm not about to get involved in a full scale polemic (I'm just not up to it physically right now). That doesn't mean that the valid points raised in our previous discussions are any less applicable now (Bunyip and I had an interesting range of exchanges a few years ago).

Bunyip:

What I'd really love to see is for you to post a range of trades in advance on ASF with running commentaries. That would be great to see your style in action too! Would you please consider doing this as wavepicker and I did in the past? (Have you forgotten all the posts that wavepicker and I posted with numerous charts and information in advance and in detail with full commentary, even addressing when we got it wrong, and identified what the failure criteria was?)

I suppose my point is that no one will get it right every time because we are dealing with probability, but I know several people who can make very accurate calls, but they are a minority.

The point is that if you "stick your neck out" and post calls in advance, you've got to get it wrong sometimes. I'd like to reverse the idea of the majority of calls being wrong, and then only highlighting the good ones when it comes to some traders. Respectfully wavepicker and I made strong comments when we thought we had high probability trades on, often in the face of criticism from the majority. I think on the whole we did pretty well actually. People will make up their own minds on this topic I'm sure.

You're right though, there are a lot of people who try to study various schools of Gann and have no success doing it. I also agree that most of the Gann courses are bunk. They are. I also agree with you that this does not necessarily mean that there is no value in Gann ideas. I think there is, but it is very difficult to understand, and frankly the majority just don't get it. So in most cases it's probably not suitable for the majority, so I agree with your sentiment here.

On specifics:
Square of 9 - agree, think this is a waste of time (pun intended!).
Time by degrees - not too keen on this either.
Square of 144 -probably, if you understand it, arguably the most important concept to the time cycle approach.
Gann Angles - very involved subject, some ideas here are nonsense (probably the ones you've seen), but time angles per McLaren are VERY powerful once you comprehend them, but they are very involved to work out and use (but accessible in McLaren's course work).

Now as for convincing you of anything Bunyip, I think if your interest in this subject wasn't piqued by wavepicker's and my work when we were discussing it with you, then I don't know what would else would. I thought we pretty much agreed to a "whatever works for you" approach. I think you have some sound ideas. If you cannot see any value in my work, that is fine, and I respect your opinion.

What I would think would be fair though is for you to publish as we did openly, in detail, in advance, and with running commentary, and with postmortems to help others learn from your experience. I think there are many who could greatly benefit from you wisdom!

Great to see you posting again.

Warm Regards

Magdoran

P.S. All:

Please don't pigeonhole me as a "Gannist" because I'm not. I have a "magpie mind" and use good ideas irrespective of where they came from. I'm focused on evolving my style and pioneering new ideas.

I just happen to think that there are bits of Gann that make a lot of sense. But I also think there is a lot of chaff in the works, and possibly deliberate "red herrings", hence the controversy.

The difference with me though is that I've been prepared to wade through torrents of nonsense put out by all sorts of people on trading/investing for years from a range of different viewpoints - fundamental analysis, technical analysis of all flavours, systems, theories, psychology etc etc.

My aim has been to highlight potentially useful viewpoints, and that's about the size of it...

 

[Magdoran]

bunyip, that was what I asked a while ago on page 1 of this thread and no examples were forthcoming.
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=13871

I was genuinely interested in trying some of the methods but needed some potential long or short trades to use as an example of entry using daily data.

I know that as an amateur with EW I can still make a buck as it throws up daily potential long and short trades (WBC ?) but I cannot yet identify or find anyone to provide an example where Gann does the same.

There is some free Gann software (it was only available for a cost) on this site http://www.gannalyst.com/
Not sure I can be bothered though as I have yet to see an example where I can apply a potential entry, stop and R/R process to the theory but I am still open to input.

Boggo,

Did you miss my reply to you?

I am not in a position to comment as I did in the past, but I did post profusely for a while, and you might find some of the points useful, even if it is to determine not to accept them.

If you are sincerely interested in looking at this, then please read through the work.

Kind Regards

Mag

 

[tech/a]

Moggie/Waves

Been a detractor of Gann---no surprise.

But have come to the conclusion its a bit like any analysis a matter of analysis being right at a point of time or proven wrong.
If wrong move on to the next.

What Ive found is that there are so many "pressure points" that its totally impractical to trade them all.
A chart with Gann analysis on it can be pretty busy!

So if people can trade profitably from it then only they know whether they are and whether it works for them.
Me-------I prefer other analysis.

 

[bunyip]

Hello Bunyip!

Long time no see. Amazing who is coming out of the "woodwork". Hope you are well.

I tend to agree with your estimation here about Neil Costa and David Bowden.

However, I still think McLaren's work is worthwhile as we discussed a few years ago.

I think you are spot on though that reading the chart is at the heart of good technical analysis irrespective of what you "bolt on" to it. I suppose this comes down to personal preference, doesn't it?

Mag

Well now Mag - I'm not sure why you think I've re-emerged from the woodwork. I've been posting on here all along. It's you who has suddenly come out of the woodwork.

This thread is about Gann's methodology, not mine.
Occasionally I swap notes with a couple of fellow Forex traders, but mostly I prefer to be a lone wolf when it comes to trading.
I have no interest in posting my trades on here. I'm not trying to convince anyone that I can trade. I don't have a big ego that needs satisfying. I don't need other people to critique my methods. I have very little inclination to educate others. I feel no need to prove myself or my methods to anyone except myself. As long as my trading account is steadily increasing, that's proof enough for me.
I've outlined my trading strategies in various posts. If anyone thinks those strategies may have some merit, they're free to do their own research to prove or disprove their validity.

I agree that McLaren's work has something to offer. But then he's not entirely Gann either.

 

[Boggo]

Boggo,

Did you miss my reply to you?

Kind Regards

Mag

No I didn't Mag, sorry, I should have gotten back to you.
I am working my way through yours and a few other posts on the subject, also going through the Gannalyst manual.

I have not seen SITM course but I am finding it difficult to find that something that I can apply on a daily basis.

I have probably been somewhat spoiled by the way that Robert Miner teaches Elliott Wave and by the way that people like Radge and a few other posters on here can apply it.

Will get back to you if I have any specific queries.

Thanks Mag
Cheers

 

[ducati916]

Hi Duc!

How are you? Nice to see you're still around.

The answer is no, I haven't heard of this guy.

"The Daniel Code" sounds dubious to me. I could be wrong, but it sounds like another "dog and pony show" to me, set up to prey on the unwitting people trying to learn how to trade/invest, ripe to be plucked by the course sellers.

If I had the time I'd probe it a bit, but honestly my intuition is that this is not a good candidate to find much if anything of value.

So, how is NZ treating you? Shame we couldn't meet up when I wad flying over the pacific. Unfortunately my pst file corrupted, and all the backups failed probably due to the move. Hope you still have my email address.

Anyway, Duc, I'd suggest not putting too much effort into this one. Nice to hear from you!

Kind Regards

Mag

Magdoran

I still have your Australian e-mail address, if that is still a valid one. Indeed, we missed a couple of opportunities, there'll be others I'm sure.

I'm still around, mostly on my blog, not that often on the straight forums anymore, unless the content catches my interest.

You mean to tell me that the Bible [Daniel Code] is a load of cobblers? Obviously you are a heretic, and will be burned at the fundamentalist Christian stake...or the KKK will track you down.

Could you have timed a move to the US at a worse time...or did you already know?

jog on
duc

 

[Magdoran]

Well now Mag - I'm not sure why you think I've re-emerged from the woodwork. I've been posting on here all along. It's you who has suddenly come out of the woodwork.

This thread is about Gann's methodology, not mine.
Occasionally I swap notes with a couple of fellow Forex traders, but mostly I prefer to be a lone wolf when it comes to trading.
I have no interest in posting my trades on here. I'm not trying to convince anyone that I can trade. I don't have a big ego that needs satisfying. I don't need other people to critique my methods. I have very little inclination to educate others. I feel no need to prove myself or my methods to anyone except myself. As long as my trading account is steadily increasing, that's proof enough for me.
I've outlined my trading strategies in various posts. If anyone thinks those strategies may have some merit, they're free to do their own research to prove or disprove their validity.

I agree that McLaren's work has something to offer. But then he's not entirely Gann either.

Hello Bunyip,

Apologies, didn't mean to offend. I respect your decision to compartmentalise your life and trade as a lone wolf as you see fit - totally your choice. I was curious to see your analysis since you've shown yourself to be a consummate trader - I'm always interested in new ideas and inspiration. But I acknowledge your choice.

By the way, my comment about coming out of the woodwork was to do with commenting on the "old hoary chestnut" of Gann, not about posting in general. I certainly have been out of the loop for some time that is true, and will not have much time to post, so this is a brief friendly reminiscence.

Personally I find I need more than trading to keep me happy. It is fun, but not the center of my universe, albeit one of my passions. I've been getting inspiration composing Music again, and building an IT organization in the US (despite the downturn), and writing too, which keeps me busy. Trading is fiscally rewarding, but I find making music soothes the soul, and I like the personal contact in business.

Glad to hear you are doing well.

Kind Regards

Mag

 

[Magdoran]

Magdoran

I still have your Australian e-mail address, if that is still a valid one. Indeed, we missed a couple of opportunities, there'll be others I'm sure.

I'm still around, mostly on my blog, not that often on the straight forums anymore, unless the content catches my interest.

You mean to tell me that the Bible [Daniel Code] is a load of cobblers? Obviously you are a heretic, and will be burned at the fundamentalist Christian stake...or the KKK will track you down.

Could you have timed a move to the US at a worse time...or did you already know?

jog on
duc

Hi Duc,

The move to the US was actually quite well timed I thought... should see the bargains over here in the property markets, as predicted by Jim Rogers.

Unfortunately the Australian email address won't function anymore, I'll send you a PM with a new one.

Haha, a heretic huh? That is probably my middle name in a number of ways. Yes, it sounds like bunk to me. After a while you can smell it most times. Occasionally I come across something inspirational though.

Best Regards

Mag

 

[Magdoran]

Hey Mag,

Nice surprise to see you pop in for a post. You still trading options?

All the best on the recovery.

Hello Grinder!

How are you? Hope all is going well for you. How is your search for knowledge going?

Me, I seldom trade the underlying, and prefer to use options and futures. I try to pick liquid markets though, but it depends on the situation of course, and the risk to reward and probabilities.

Thanks for you kind words too, much appreciated.

Mag

 

[Grinder]

Mag,

I've come along way in my never ending quest for knowledge and am light years now from where I was a year or so ago. I'm still deciphering options, but they are looking more like music to me now than chopsticks.

 

[bunyip]

Hello Bunyip,

Apologies, didn't mean to offend. I respect your decision to compartmentalise your life and trade as a lone wolf as you see fit - totally your choice. I was curious to see your analysis since you've shown yourself to be a consummate trader - I'm always interested in new ideas and inspiration. But I acknowledge your choice.

By the way, my comment about coming out of the woodwork was to do with commenting on the "old hoary chestnut" of Gann, not about posting in general. I certainly have been out of the loop for some time that is true, and will not have much time to post, so this is a brief friendly reminiscence.

Personally I find I need more than trading to keep me happy. It is fun, but not the center of my universe, albeit one of my passions. I've been getting inspiration composing Music again, and building an IT organization in the US (despite the downturn), and writing too, which keeps me busy. Trading is fiscally rewarding, but I find making music soothes the soul, and I like the personal contact in business.

Glad to hear you are doing well.

Kind Regards

Mag

No apologies needed - you didn't offend me at all.

It's just that I've been trading for many years now, and I'm past the stage where I look for other people's opinions about my trading strategies.
When I started trading I was given the following advice by someone who'd been in the game a long time and had done very well. What he said to me was...

'Trading is the sort of business where you need to shut yourself in your office, don't listen to the news, don't read the papers, don't ask others for their opinions, don't tell anyone what you're doing, not even your missus. Just do your research, practice until you've got a system that performs consistently and suits your personality. And above all, keep it simple'.

I thought that was pretty good advice back then, and I still think so today. But I must confess that I haven't followed it exactly. I do listen to the news, I do read the papers although not the financial pages, and I do occasionally swap notes with a couple of other traders where we compare our trades, discuss strategies etc etc.
Also I've been an active member of ATAA for many years and I enjoy our monthly meetings where we have a couple of beers after the meeting, and discuss strategies for conquering the markets. But for the most part, I like to be pretty much solitary in my trading, simply because that's what suits me.
I can understand that others are different to me and may need regular contact and discussion with other traders.

Years ago I read something that really stuck in my mind....
Blessed is the person with technical analysis skills - he/she has a method of making money for the rest of his/her life without having to rely on the opinions of others.