Gann, honestly, is it a good basis for trading?

[sails]

Sails.

Thanks.

But I'm with Brad here.
How now do you trade the chart going forward.
Entry/Exit/Trade Management?

Tech, the same sort of entry techniques you would use with A/get's MOB target which I believe is made up of time and price. Or just because the market reaches a fib level target, doesn't mean it will reverse the market. Same with time, it needs to be proved or disproved. Price being at an important level in addition to time coming in needs closer attention. Then further confirmation works well with VSA, candlesticks, oscillators, whatever you choose, etc, etc.

If an important price level comes in on a possible date (as it did on the 17th April shown on the chart), it's getting pretty close. But I think further confirmation would be a good thing. Otherwise, one can wait for a lower high, higher low and not actually try to trade the turn. Will post up an intra-day chart of the 17th April to show possible entries. Will follow up on the chart too - see what happens when those 21 days come around.

I have never found time to be a stand alone indicator - but then I've only illustrated the kindergarten of time analysis.

 

[sails]

Here's a 15 min chart of 24 hour SPI showing what happened on the 17th April when price hit an important level on that 42 calendar day repeat. The SPI then dropped just over 200 points over the next five calendar days.

One could either enter with a tight stop as shown on the chart OR take the entry as the previous swing low is passed. I think the latter is more Gann theory, but then a fair bit of the run is missed that way.

Guys, does that help? I honestly don't know how to make it any clearer...

 

[tech/a]

Sails.

Thanks for your time and effort.
I do understand that there are many many points both in time and price let alone astrology which can be plotted using Gann on any chart.
A fully marked up Gann chart on a stock is really a work of art.

Of course Gannists place greater credence on confluence of points alerted on a chart and have an expectation that if a certain point is honoured that other like levels or points in price and time will also be honoured.

The point by all those here is that practical application IF DEMONSTRATED would show that any one or group of these points would in a practical trading sense used as entry or exit would prove no more effective than conventional analysis.

The smoke and mirrors is the illusion the Gann Educators create that Gann did have the holy grail and its so complex that it will cost you (Ive seen $25000 +) to be let into this secret sect! (So to speak).

Taking any Gann analysis FORWARD as can be seen in the 21 day cycle chart there is only a loose strategy.
Yogi has mentioned on his COH analysis various levels which will either be proven or disproven.
Now I dont have a problem with that but if the bullishness of his analysis doesnt come off where will he exit if at all. But from what I can read his trade is long until the end of his periods analysed.

Thanks for your effort Sails./Yogi

 

[sails]

...The smoke and mirrors is the illusion the Gann Educators create that Gann did have the holy grail and its so complex that it will cost you (Ive seen $25000 +) to be let into this secret sect! (So to speak).

Tech, definitely not a holy grail, IMO. Even Gann knew it wasn't a holy grail. He is big on using stops in his books and says to accept the fact if you are wrong.

High priced option courses have been known to be marketed in such a way that it looks like you can make money if the market goes up, if it goes down or if it goes sideways. But you have to learn their "secrets". In reality, different strategies are needed for different market conditions. If the wrong option strategy is applied, money will be lost. This is not spelled out in the marketing process, leading people to believe in fairies.

And so, absolutely agree with you on the smoke and mirrors with educators. It's one of the things I have always liked about McLaren. I think he has been using this stuff for about 35 years. He doesn't run big ads, doesn't promise the earth, etc.

Taking any Gann analysis FORWARD as can be seen in the 21 day cycle chart there is only a loose strategy.

I am thinking of starting a new thread and following up in real time. Will see how time (my time!) goes. Also, this is the very basics of time analysis and some of it is what I have worked out for myself due to minimal Gann education. It is not a holy grail. I have no idea how Yogi does his Astro analysis. I think there have been many different streams of Gann theory developed over the years.

Now I dont have a problem with that but if the bullishness of his analysis doesnt come off where will he exit if at all. But from what I can read his trade is long until the end of his periods analysed.

Obviously Yogi will have to answer that one. My guess they simply work with stops, trailing stops, etc. Just basic stuff for entry and trade management. Different traders use different methods that suit their trading styles/personalities. I don't think there is anything at all mysterious about the entry/exit and trade management techniques. Could be the reason why they are not discussed.

 

[beamstas]

Thanks Sails
So basically you can't trade gann by itself

You have to find another method of trading, but use gann as a way of "forcasting" the end of a trend or price movement

For example if i said i believe the SPI will go up in the short term, i could use gann and conclude that in 21 days i should start tightening my stops

Thanks again sails

Cheers
Brad

 

[sails]

Thanks Sails
So basically you can't trade gann by itself

You have to find another method of trading, but use gann as a way of "adding additional probability to" the end of a trend or price movement

For example if i said i believe the SPI will go up in the short term, i could use gann and conclude that in 21 days i should start tightening my stops

Thanks again sails

Cheers
Brad

Brad, I have changed the word "forecasting" in your original post to "adding additional probability" in your post above as it more accurately describes what I am on about. Just trying to take some of the "mystery" out of time analysis.

Lets not confuse simple time analysis with Gann. Simple calendar day charts are far from a stand alone system - which I have repeatedly stated. If you are bullish, then you would be watching for other bullish signals as you would using any system.

Gann techniques do incorporate the use of time, including some very advanced time techniques, in addition to many other factors. He taught the use of volume, support and resistance, accumulation and distribution. Commonly used analysis. Gann has whole volumes he has written on his work. All I have done is to show a little of how time charts can work.

Some advanced Gann technicians may well be able to forecast. That's not my area. I'm not a Gann expert and never did complete the course I started due to it being so over priced. So, all I can do is show the simple stuff. At least it is some sort of a primer in time analysis and how it can work together with other indicators for anyone interested.

Do I really have to keep repeating the same things over and over? I'm beginning to think this is not a good idea..

Anyway, how about showing some charts of how you trade, Brad? Tech has done it many times...

 

[beamstas]

Brad, I have changed the word "forecasting" in your original post to "adding additional probability" in your post above as it more accurately describes what I am on about. Just trying to take some of the "mystery" out of time analysis.

Lets not confuse simple time analysis with Gann. Simple calendar day charts are far from a stand alone system - which I have repeatedly stated. If you are bullish, then you would be watching for other bullish signals as you would using any system.

Gann techniques do incorporate the use of time, including some very advanced time techniques, in addition to many other factors. He taught the use of volume, support and resistance, accumulation and distribution. Commonly used analysis. Gann has whole volumes he has written on his work. All I have done is to show a little of how time charts can work.

Some advanced Gann technicians may well be able to forecast. That's not my area. I'm not a Gann expert and never did complete the course I started due to it being so over priced. So, all I can do is show the simple stuff. At least it is some sort of a primer in time analysis and how it can work together with other indicators for anyone interested.

Do I really have to keep repeating the same things over and over? I'm beginning to think this is not a good idea..

Anyway, how about showing some charts of how you trade, Brad? Tech has done it many times...

Thanks,
Now i understand.
Still a bit over my head
Hard to grasp

I will gladly post charts
Where do you want them?

 

[sails]

Thanks,
Now i understand.
Still a bit over my head
Hard to grasp

I will gladly post charts
Where do you want them?

That's a relief - was getting a bit frustrated typing the same stuff. Let's see if there are any other confirming factors when that next 21 days is due.

Time analysis seems to be quite misunderstood, so my thought was to isolate it and at least show the very basics.

lol Brad - post your charts where ever you like...

 

[beamstas]

That's a relief - was getting a bit frustrated typing the same stuff. Let's see if there are any other confirming factors when that next 21 days is due.

Time analysis seems to be quite misunderstood, so my thought was to isolate it and at least show the very basics.

lol Brad - post your charts where ever you like...

Ok well i don't normally post them on ASF
Would you prefer i pm you a few

Cheers
Brad

 

[sails]

Ok well i don't normally post them on ASF
Would you prefer i pm you a few

Cheers
Brad

No need to PM. Why not on ASF though? You have been fairly vocal about getting others to post their charts publically...

 

[beamstas]

No need to PM. Why not on ASF though? You have been fairly vocal about getting others to post their charts publically...

Where should i post them then
Don't want to start a new topic

 

[tech/a]

Thanks Sails.

I see it similar to Elliott in that a count or a cycle/pressure point/square/confluence of any or all will give a point of analysis.
This can be traded alone particularly confluence.
I would think that other analysis would be very important.
S&R/Counts/Volume/Divergence/Fundamentals could have an impact on the result of all points thrown up.

Do you have the ability to give other Gann Analysis to the chart to see if confluence can be found?

 

[motorway]

imo

Such time cycles

are the result of cobweb dynamics

( The hog cycle do a google search )

They result from the use of time based indicators

eg think of all the RSI MACD ROC set at default settings

Think of the 30 or 200 period mov average

A population of interest using such time based indicators

will set up ( interacting with others that do not use them eg FA followers )

dampening and expanding patterns

The problem is they are ephemeral
they dissolve when people try to profit from them

They are what create all the various Wedge and triangular patterns
And it is when they break down that is the Point of interest

So time cycles are created by a critical mass using time based indications

even just so many using daily charts or weekly

The patterns last as long as they do
and then new patterns emerge

14 day RSI works until it works too well etc

Chasing ones own tail


motorway

 

[sails]

Thanks Sails.

I see it similar to Elliott in that a count or a cycle/pressure point/square/confluence of any or all will give a point of analysis.
This can be traded alone particularly confluence.
I would think that other analysis would be very important.
S&R/Counts/Volume/Divergence/Fundamentals could have an impact on the result of all points thrown up.

Do you have the ability to give other Gann Analysis to the chart to see if confluence can be found?

Yes, confluence is definitely part of time analysis. Even with calendar days, it is possible to get confluence where smaller time cycles merge in with higher time cycles.

Also, there are usually mathematical relationships with the time charts, similar to those found in price charts and can be seen in the chart I posted. It may be a third or half of a previous move that fits in nicely with something else. But, in my experience, price must also be at an important level for a reversal to take place. Sometimes confluence of time may complete a reaction or the market may simply pause if the trend is strong.

Yes, there are more complex methods that can produce further confluence in time - most of which I didn't learn. Maybe someone else is willing to fill in the gaps. However, what I did learn gave so many potential turning places, I ended up mainly using calendar days (also weeks and months) for my own trading. Although I usually just sketch them out with pencil and don't try to mark them up on the computer as I did on the one I posted.

 

[sails]

21 days is up tomorrow (8th May), so it's time to be on alert and watching for signs of a change in trend. It can be a day or two either side of the projected date, so I have been watching it closely today. This is when other factors come into play as confirmation - a case of prove / disprove. It's just another indicator - at least that's how I have used it. Have posted the updated chart below. There are some interesting smaller time cycles inside these last 21 days. Will try to give more info tomorrow. Also, I need to get the larger time cycles (eg weekly, monthly) worked out as that also helps narrow things down a bit.

 

[tech/a]

So Sails.

If you were long I guess you could only be reasonably confident if you saw the 2nd cycle come off.
OR would someone trading Gann Trade after the First 21 days was found to be a top.

At what time on the chart would the Cycle be confirmed.
I suspect after the 2nd 21 days appears.

This is where I have trouble with the application.

Lets say we find the 2nd 21 day cycle would you go short?

If not at what time would you have gone long and WHY?
We now then have a 3rd 21 day cycle.
Does the trader go short?
And on what confirmation if any?

Thanks for the effort.
You leave the others for dead.
Novice?
From what Ive seen your way ahead on ability to explain.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Very interesting how this thread developes as time goes on. One e-mail sparks a flurry, and then sometimes nothing for days, weeks, and then one e-mail can suddenly spark another flurry. Any familiarity with trading?



OK, straight to the point. A CHALLENGE. LETS see if there is real value in GANN, and lets make believers of the NON believers. This will be fun!!!!

Starting January 1st 2009 thru December 31st 2009 let us all make a record of our chosen trading account, with starting balance and closing balance. At the end of the year those that choose to continue to argue about the merits of this approach will be given a chance to show if they are real traders. We will get an independent auditor and accountant to review the trading statements. Posting these on a public forum is understandably an issue. Anyone considered the taxation implications!!!!!

Those that are skeptical of GANN, choose your representative to represent you as your champion VERSUS ME. I will represent GANN. At the end of the year if my trading account shows a greater return, then I pay nothing for the costs in getting this challenge independently audited. Further to that lets put up a dollar wager of 10,000 USD to the winner!! The loser pays the winner 10,000 USD plus all costs associated with this challenge. We will get a solicitor to arrange setting up the contract, all legal and above board.

OK non believers who wants to step up to the plate and challenge me?
If you want to revise these conditions feel free to suggest an alternative.

I think this will silence the critics once and for all. Warning any shallow and mindless responses to this will be obvious.

I look forward to your responses!!!

Wonder where our mystical and full of BS Gann blow-in has gone

Two post of huge claims and challenges and then not a friggin thing to back it up.

Typical. Claims, bluff, Challenges, BS, Bullying, Complexity but in the end complete and utter rubbish.

Not a thing of substance. Pathetic :fu::arsch:

 

[beamstas]

Anyway, how about showing some charts of how you trade, Brad? Tech has done it many times...

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=15356

 

[sails]

Tech, I will try to get some more charts up over the weekend which will hopefully answer your questions. They take a while to mark up and prepare as I know you understand. Please remember, it is very elementary Gann stuff that I use.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=15356

Brad - yes well done! Good thread and it has a lot of interest!

 

[Bobby]

Wonder where our mystical and full of BS Gann blow-in has gone

Two post of huge claims and challenges and then not a friggin thing to back it up.

Typical. Claims, bluff, Challenges, BS, Bullying, Complexity but in the end complete and utter rubbish.

Not a thing of substance. Pathetic :fu::arsch:

Might have kept up the bluff & BS longer if you did'nt step up to the mark