Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Gann, honestly, is it a good basis for trading?

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Timmy said:
Just looking at some of the transactions in your portfolio.
I’m probably not understanding something here Trader Paul, if you could clarify for me.

but the volume figures would be a reason why these trades couldn't be done with real money?
Click to expand...

:)

Hi Timmy,

..... and these trades may well have been done with real money,
at that time ..... just because a limited number were actually traded,
does not mean, that there were not more available to trade, at that time.

have a great day

paul

:)

=====
 
Timmy said:
ITC is even more out of kilter, on the 29th your transactions total over 5 million shares,
but overall volume on that day appears to be only 200,000 shares?
Click to expand...

Trader Paul said:
:)
However, disregarding the volume, those stocks could still have been
traded at that time, successfully.
Click to expand...

Trader Paul said:
:)
..... just because a limited number were actually traded,
does not mean, that there were not more available to trade, at that time.
Click to expand...

Can't help but butt in here into this highly entertaining ego-charged thread.

I don't know who does or doesn't trade. I don't know who's profitable. I don't really care which methods do and don't work.

All I can say is that it is blatantly obvious from even a cursory glance at the current market depth for ITC that there is absolutely no way the proposed trade of BUY 5,046,282 ITC @ 0.031 could have occurred yesterday, 29-Apr-2009, if trading real money.

Anyone who actually trades and has even a rudimentary understanding of DOM can see that from the current DOM and course of sales. There were no trades at 0.031 on this day. There are no sellers at 0.031. The lowest the sellers were prepared to go on this day was 0.032, and only 200,000 were traded at this level, at 11:30am.

Sure you could have put your BUY order in for your 5 million ITC at 0.031 at around midday, but it wouldn't have been filled in real life, unlike in this clearly flawed competition.

If you are that naive to suggest that such a trade was even remotely likely to get executed as proposed, then there is a very large credibility gap to overcome.

Following on from that, any trade outcome that may be claimed from this paper trade is just as problematic.
 

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(Out of editing time and wanted to add an addendum).

There's a very good reason real traders avoid illiquid shares like the ones you've paper traded.

Ignoring the realities of trading them can lead to fantastic results on paper...but that's as far as it goes. Try to really trade them...fuggetaboutit. No volume = no meaningful $ to be made. You can't make money when a share only trades $6,400 worth per day.

They're good for fudging results in paper trading competitions, though.
 
LOL has no further comments in this thread as point has been proven


fairytales and gobbledygook


unreal

at least if i used this method to trade , my dream of buying BDM yesterday at .01 and selling at 10.00 would have come true
 
A gift.

"Delusions of grandeur make me feel a lot better about myself."
 
Of course your going to make profit
If you buy shares below the lowest price they actually traded at

This thread is a fairytale
Nothing less
 
Thanks Paul for that. :)

I have posted my apology in fairyland right next to your trades and unfortunately for Joe sent him $500 of fairy money so he can buy some fairyland listed BHP. :)

Have a nive day :)
 
beamstas said:
This thread is a fairytale
Nothing less
Click to expand...


"Gannilocks and the three bear markets" ??? sheep::sheep::sheep: (one bear went Missing In Action)

----maybe "Gann with the Wind" :D


All jokes aside, theres probably a lot of breakout traders out there who fit the Gann mold :eek: --- disregarding all the esoteric nonsense, some pretty basic concepts amongst it ---

(from the ASX website)

Entry Points

If the trend is up, which is signalled by consecutive swing points progressively higher, a buy signal is generated when a new high is made following a swing bottom.

Conversely a sell signal is generated during a down trend when a new low is made immediately after a swing top. New sell signals are generated every time we make a reversal followed by a new low. The sell signal is generated as we make the new low.


Sounds familiar doesnt it !! ---- now hands up all the closet Gann's:headshake lol ---
 
Trader Paul said:
:)

..... generous of you, th ..... :)

have a great day

paul

:)

=====
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:)
.... Trader Paul, you are truly special ....

What a complete waste of time this thread has proven to be. TP, you have proven that once and for all.

What Michael D suggested about real DOM and paper trading was so obvious to so many, and should have been an obvious pick up to yourself as well. But what it has done, is strip you of any real credibility that you had an opportunity to create on this thread.

I have concluded that you do not trade real money TP. You paper trade and enjoy studying astrology, that's it. You have a bunch of investment properties and you simply live off the rent.

Probably an inheritance or you got lucky a while back and just rode that Real Esate wave, like so many unskilled people can -- and still profit handsomely. Which means that you are reasonably well buffered whatever you do. Which has nothing at all to do with real trading ability in real life. Something you cannot lay claim to. Only you have proven that.

I have a new trading term I would like submit to Investopdia. It relates to when one starting out paper trading and he comes across a great buy but in reality - due to a lack of liquidity - its nontradeable.

The term will be nontraderpaul ...... :)

Have a great day !~!

ST

:)

========
 
Trader Paul said:
..... that sucked them in and got the hornets buzzing, again ... lol ...
Click to expand...

Trader Paul said:
However, disregarding the volume, those stocks could still have been
traded at that time, successfully.
Click to expand...

It's puzzling. I don't have a problem with someone demonstrating a methodology via paper trading if you don't want to show your real trades.

I'd likely do the same.

The elephant in the room, however, is not the paper trades per se, it's the complete ignorance of how the real market actually works, as demonstrated by the claim that any of these paper trades could have been successfully executed in the underlying markets.

Anyhow, I'm off - the real market has been extraordinarily busy this week and beckons for attention.
 
Gann can almost be anything

Gann seems to have used nearly everything

What is Gann that makes it Gann ?

I would argue the use of Time for prediction..



"TIME is the most important factor of all and not until sufficient TIME has expired does any big move start up or down. When TIME is up, price movement will start and large volume will begin, either up or down."
W.D Gann
Click to expand...

When Time is up !
Of course , when the time is up ----It is just not saying much..
When something's time is up ----naturally..
Bull turns to bear / bear turns to bull
Births & deaths.


But that leaves a lot of other material

How much is original
and how much is Gann can be argued.

Now, with this exercise of following the system on the chart, you can probably already recognize some of
the advantages and disadvantages of the system. One disadvantage is obvious; if the market is in a
non-trending mode or a sideways chop as it is often called, your equity will continually be eroded.

You may suffer a series of aggravating losses being constantly whipsawed until the market finds a direction.
But you will never suffer a devastating loss.
Click to expand...

Curtis Arnold on this "Gann" method

The problem with using Static Time

But even so
He finds

The main advantage to the system is you will never miss a major move. You may miss the first few days
and you may overstay the move and give back some of the last part, but you will catch the major portion
of it.
Even more importantly, you will not be caught on the wrong side of a major move which can often
be fatal.
Click to expand...


Where have I seen these 45 degree angles before :)


We also ran this system on the T-bills. We'll now examine the results of this system.
The number of profitable trades was 9.
The number of losing trades was 10.
The maximum dollar gain on any one profitable trade was $5090.
The maximum dollar loss on a losing trade was $1660.
The maximum drawdown was $2,695 or 27%.
The profits after commissions totaled $19,505.00.
The losses after commissions totaled $8,100.00.
Resulting in a net after commissions of $11,405.00.
The required margin was $2,500.
Therefore we required an initial investment of $10,000.
The system was in the market 1.5 years.
Giving us an annualized return of 76%.
Click to expand...


http://www.supertradersystem.com/library/CurtisArnold-Gann(Stocks_Commodities).pdf


motorway
 
OK - have posted a short term chart showing simple calendar days as an example of measuring time in it's absolute basics. The repetitions in time are easy to see in this chart and like other TA, they don't always work out perfectly. It is based on Gann's basic teaching to count tops to tops, lows to lows in addition to ranges which is all found in his book "How to make profits in commodities".

I am not a Gann expert, but have found simple calendar day counts quite useful if it fits in with other TA. For the record, I haven't taken any trades on the basis of the chart below as have only recently drawn them up. This is simply to illustrate to those who are genuinely interested as a very simple method of analysing time.

How to trade it is an individual thing. I could have just as easily shown a chart with fib levels - or a MOB in A/Get. I see time analysis as no more than using any other indicator and the trader/investor will use other TA to prove or disprove a potential date or trade entry. Here is a link to how someone experienced in Gann trades the Gann swing charts. http://www.cycletrader.com.au/gann1.htm

As you can see in the chart below, the XJO is currently running on 21 days. That probably will stop now that I've posted it... :D

Not interested in arguments, not promoting it as a holy grail or as a must have in trading - take it or leave it as you will. Also, I am not offering any forecasts based on this chart as I find it is better to wait for a possible, useful date to come along and then see if it's stacking up for a trade just as one doesn't forecast that price will definitely hit a fib level. If it hits, then one looks to see if other indicators are stacking up. Same for me using time and I have found forecasting simply hasn't worked for me. I have found it brings the need to be "right" which envokes all the wrong emotions into trading.

Oh, and the dates are taken from the SPI, but I don't have enough SPI data, so have used the XJO to show the idea. I have put the day counts close to the relevant ranges. However, this last range up from the March lows I have shown how that is subdividing and is, at present, running perfectly from that last 42 day B-B.

I am sure there are much more advanced Gann traders out there using much more than basic calendar day analysis - but in the absence of any other information showing time, except for that which Magdoran posted in detail some time ago, I have posted this very basic chart.
 

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sails said:
OK - have posted a short term chart showing simple calendar days as an example of measuring time in it's absolute basics. The repetitions in time are easy to see in this chart and like other TA, they don't always work out perfectly. It is based on Gann's basic teaching to count tops to tops, lows to lows in addition to ranges which is all found in his book "How to make profits in commodities".

I am not a Gann expert, but have found simple calendar day counts quite useful if it fits in with other TA. For the record, I haven't taken any trades on the basis of the chart below as have only recently drawn them up. This is simply to illustrate to those who are genuinely interested as a very simple method of analysing time.

How to trade it is an individual thing. I could have just as easily shown a chart with fib levels - or a MOB in A/Get. I see time analysis as no more than using any other indicator and the trader/investor will use other TA to prove or disprove a potential date or trade entry. Here is a link to how someone experienced in Gann trades the Gann swing charts. http://www.cycletrader.com.au/gann1.htm

As you can see in the chart below, the XJO is currently running on 21 days. That probably will stop now that I've posted it... :D

Not interested in arguments, not promoting it as a holy grail or as a must have in trading - take it or leave it as you will. Also, I am not offering any forecasts based on this chart as I find it is better to wait for a possible, useful date to come along and then see if it's stacking up for a trade just as one doesn't forecast that price will definitely hit a fib level. If it hits, then one looks to see if other indicators are stacking up. Same for me using time and I have found forecasting simply hasn't worked for me. I have found it brings the need to be "right" which envokes all the wrong emotions into trading.

Oh, and the dates are taken from the SPI, but I don't have enough SPI data, so have used the XJO to show the idea. I have put the day counts close to the relevant ranges. However, this last range up from the March lows I have shown how that is subdividing and is, at present, running perfectly from that last 42 day B-B.

I am sure there are much more advanced Gann traders out there using much more than basic calendar day analysis - but in the absence of any other information showing time, except for that which Magdoran posted in detail some time ago, I have posted this very basic chart.
Click to expand...


Nice chart sails
Does this mean for a gann(er) you go long or short?
Do you expect another top 21 days from the last one or a low 21 days from the previous top?
IE would you be going long or short after that second 21 day top

Thanks
Brad
 
Sails.

Thanks.

But I'm with Brad here.
How now do you trade the chart going forward.
Entry/Exit/Trade Management?
 
beamstas said:
Nice chart sails
Does this mean for a gann(er) you go long or short?
Do you expect another top 21 days from the last one or a low 21 days from the previous top?
IE would you be going long or short after that second 21 day top

Thanks
Brad
Click to expand...

lol Brad - you're asking me to forecast... :cautious:

I have no idea where price will be in the following 21 days or even if those 21 days will fade out, but it certainly will be a time to watch and see if we are near any useful support or resistance levels in addition to other TA confirming a potential reversal (short term?) at that time. As with most other forms of TA, it's a case of prove, disprove.

Also, the chart is only a very short term chart for illustrative purposes. I suspect most Ganner's would also be looking at much longer term charts in addition to lining up other squares, etc. They probably don't even look at such short term charts - I really don't know.
 
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