How true, a mirror of my own experience. The litmus test of any trading strategy for me is, does it suit my trading style.
Keep seeing this and I find it just doesn't cut it. I've also seen it used at seminars when someone comes up with a fantastic question which absolutely nails the presenter.
Next you hear---"seriously this method wont suit every traders personality---if it doesn't suit you then find something that does"---- awkward moment avoided.
The litmus test for me is
DOES IT MAKE CONSISTENT PROFITS
This is quite a general observation as people will naturally construct or tailor their trading plans based upon a range of personalised factors much like when you sign up to Fernwood and fill out the questionare . Some people will only have limited time to monitor and conduct their trades as they are time poor and have external commitments therfore they can only allocate a small portion of their time to trading and system development . On the other hand the fulltime trader has the ability to monitor his positions and watch the fluctuations within the market on a realtime level . During times of quiet activity he can spend time researching ideas and streamlining his trading plan and evaluating his risk settings and parameters .
Good profitable trading ---contrary to opinion---(Generally those not profitable) is as boring as hell and takes around 1 hr a day--tops
My predictions are not based upon a set of arbitrary observations . My calculations are based upon certain scientific principles and geometric values and when these factors move into alignment they usually co incide with a top or bottom .
These Timing Principles endeavour to measure the evolving peaks and troughs within the market as that is their primary function . These Techniques and methods are not orientated or designed to identifying breakout points or 180ema crossovers . Momentum based oscilators are an artificial intrepretation of price action and are effectively lagging indicators . Every movement within the market is a result of Natural Law and the cause exists long before the effect takes place so from my perspective it would be prudent to employ the techniques and methods that I have learnt over several years as a tool to identify and calculate possible high probability turning points.
Not everyone one of these turning points is going to be a high magnitude turning point .They might constitute a week long selloff point or a multi week selloff point but as I expained the intrinsic nature of my system is oriented towards locating turning points and entering into a position with a calculated level of risk and a forward based trading plan that will outline important time points in the future where my position may be at risk and other spiral price prokections based on the Square of Nine . A detailed risk analysis is a central componet of my trading system and dependent upon how many bushells are traded and how far my entry point off the top determines the overall risk on any given trade . So all of these componets are integrated and play an equally important role in my decision making and trade execution .
There are dozens of ways to find a "possible pressure point" on a chart.
Plotting them all takes a great deal of time and their importance will be greatly enhanced by their confluence around each other. Some but not limited to are.
Geometric charts
Angles: 1*1, 2*1, 1*2 etc.
Price Squares: The Square of 144; The Square of the Range
The Square of Nine
Time cycles
The Planets and Geometric Vibration
Where there is limited or no confluence there is less "significance"
The issue in
APPLICATION is
Which ones do you take? and where do you exit?---going forward toward other pressure points.
As Tech has outlined two forecasts arent much to go on and it is important to see how one fares over a range of market conditions and periods of volatility so bear with me and I will place a few more trades up in advance and outline the risk parameters on each trade and what contigency plan I have just in case the position moves against me . My style is geared towards waiting for a projected date to come in and then once all of the co ordinates and Timing lines up I will seek to use my squares and calculators to zero in on price . I think whilst one may have the ability to forward project high probability turning points one must also be able to accurately qualify a price level that can be proven geometrically and mathematically because its no good saying you expect a low on 18th March but the average range in corn might be 10c so depending upon your entry level you could be risking 500.00 on one contract so you can appreciate the importance of price alignment and time alignment
This would be good.
I have previously indicated that it is not within my interest or desire to post charts or diagrams associated with my research but I will endeavour to provide a reasonably detailed explanation on trade mechanics and the underlying reasoning behind each trade . The recent calls on Corn were out by one day which can and do occur from time to time but not everyones trading methodology can be consistently accurate over a large sample size of trades and please appreciate it is only early days and over the next few weeks or months I will be continuing on with my work and forecasting and endeavouring to trade live turning points within the commodity market as they prevail . I appreciate your request for charts and calculations but I am not here to provide a wholesale dissemination on the works and techniques of WD Gann .
Not asking for a guided seminar in the use of Gann.
To mark "pressure points" on a chart particularly if you use Gann software (
http://www.gannalyst.com/Gannalyst_Professional/Gannalyst_PriceTools_PriceRange1.shtml) or similar is a no brainer and not that hard.
99.9% of people wouldn't understand how you derived that point and if they care to find out they do the course and buy the software.
But 99.9% of people would be able to see your analysis clearer in a visual sense particularly if you labelled your charts.
The chart mystery rivals the "This isn't for everybody" group.
The sceptic in me says--
there is no chart---or there is someone else's chart and
these people are great cut and pasters.
Here are a couple of marked up Gann Charts (Not mine) but you can see the Myriad of Intersections and these are mainly with fans and squares!!!!
Can you see my point on applying this into a meaningful trading method!!
People pay 10000'S $ to learn to place these lines on a chart. Great looks fantastic to LOOK BACK ON---but forward.
I agree it would be good to see the analysis applied and easy to follow.
Over to you Robert.