Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Gann forecasts/real time trades

Jump to new
ginar said:
There are some odd people on the net no doubt . conspiracy theories abound . full stops annoying ... give me a break .. stand out like sore thumbs ... youve obviously never had a sore thumb .

RG you are a gentleman , youve treated everyone here repectfully which is more than has been afforded you . tip my hat to you . Do you have a blog at all , if so a link would be nice . thank you
Click to expand...

Ginar, I believe I have been nothing but courteous to RG. It was only out of curiosity that I noticed and mentioned the same typing style between you and RG.

When you are an avid reader and touch type frequently, these things do tend to jump out as unusual.

BTW - have had my share of sore thumbs too...:)
 
TulipFX said:
So you are short on this trade? Where did you place your stop? Did it get hit? The price of corn is far higher then 3rd of January.

I do not understand the playing of words to fool yourself into thinking you are right. The position is hundreds of points the wrong site. So whatever tricks you want to play with the definition of seasonal, the fact is the price of corn is significantly higher now.

I want trades to prove a system. Noone can argue with solid, well announced trades. On either side of the discussion.
Click to expand...

Not short on the above mentioned trade as it was not my forecast and I dont trade corn futures. I'm not fooling myself into thing I'm right, I am right otherwise i wouldn't bother posting.

Here is a simple way to trade the following dates forecast by Robertgorden using onstop orders for entries (allowing a one day variance). Gann used onstop orders.
- 4th of January TOP
- 10th of January LOW

Corn_Trade Management.jpg

The first red arrow is the inital stop above the high of 3/1/11 then moving the stop down above the next swing top.
The position is reversed on the 10th as the low came in one trading day before the forcast date.
From this point if the daily high for 14/01/11 is crossed you could move your stop up under the 14/01/11 low. Have to see what happens from here.

Hope this makes sense.
 
real time trades are what its all about . listing stops . entry levels etc as close to real time as possible so I appreciate everyones input in this regard . tonight I will be watching the SP500 and trying to get as close to the ( anticipated top ) as possible so bear with me and see how it goes . My calculations indicate that

The SP500 has either topped at 1293 . and if it trades lower than this on open I will be setting stops around 1295 and trading it down . that is the first scenario .

The second scenario is it could open higher and trade up to one of the levels mentioned earlier so in that case I will employ the same strategy ( for example if it trades up to ) one of the price levels on a 15 minute chart and pullsback and exhibits weakness around that point I will take a position and set stops at a rwasonable level . in some instances it might be the case that you can get stopped out twice trying to trade off a Top but as my timing indications indicate Top I will have to watch it tonight and see how the market reacts around these price levels in real time . so bear with me and see how it goes .

If the SP500 runs beyond my calculated price levels that will indicate that my Timing calculations were incorrect and I will abort the trade with a predetermined loss and move on to something else .
 
Last trade stopped out .
Last trade for today : Entry@1294.74
Stop@1295.27

The price of 1294 is square Geo Mars so sometimes the price can rise 1c over the longitudal degree so sometimes two trades required to get close to top . if 1295 doesnt hold I will cut my losses and move on .
 
The next trade I am setting up for is Corn . My analysis indicates a significant turning point on the 25th January 2011 . At this point in time I think there is a good chance that Corn will top into this date and then trade lower . That seems to be the strongest scenario that my timing and cycle analysis points towards so I am basing this as the most likely technical scenario . The Price levels I have are 688 - 690 . so if it trades up into that date I will be looking for price to reverse at these zones .

The second technical scenario is a counter trend low into the 25th January which as as indicated is a weaker possibility but at least I have two objectives to work with so will watch corn with interest into the trigger date .
 
Is there an Up date on S@P and Corn??

Corn seems to have gone early.19/1
S@P seems a top is currently made on 14/1

Whats the application of analysis from here?
 
Corn?

So what if it trades at 668 or more
do things alter or do you take a bigger risk.?
Or do you somehow know the high and then enter
miraculously 5 ticks below it without hind site?
 
The time cycles were quite strong into the 25th January which indicated that Corn would top - / + 1 day either side of the forecast date which can sometimes be the case . usually I will allow 1 day latitude but not much more than that and if the market doesnt conform or respond accordingly to my analysis in most cases i will pass the trade up as timing and price co ordinates need to exhibit some sort of mathematical or geometric symmetry . The timing co ordinates dinnt really line up on this trade as initially calculated but there are some interesting relationships with price which suggests that 667 is an important zone to watch for resistance . 667 is on the longitudal degree of geocentric Mars and also trine geocentric Saturn which should offer overhead resistance . 603.50 - 456 = 147.50 + 518.50 = 667 ( 100% range extension ) 667 is also a 1.732 expansion ( square root of three ) on 85 point downside range . so if price cant trade above this level on an hourly chart it would indicate further downside and depending upon your entry level and risk tolerance it might constitute a good trade . of course if this level is broken you might risk 5c or 250.00 per contract .
 
Wow

All to determine a trade!!
I Dont know that at Jumbo Pilot makes as many pre flight checks.

I probably make around 20-40 trades a month.
Using this method how many trades do you run at one-time?
How many charts do you plot in the same way as corn and S@P.

If your making a couple of trades a month how do you make a buck?
Or do you trade multiple contracts?

OR

Do you actually do this as a challenge to see if you can in fact emulate the work of Gann and see by result that your understanding of his application of his analysis is identical or very similar.
So rather than trading its like Suduko or a Jigsaw as a challenge to "get it out".
 
CORN

So although Corn did make 667 on the 21st (this in itself if pretty impressive although the time--ing was/is out). I presume then that your still in this trade.

This is the aspect of Gann I find interesting.

If your applying it and you have a definitive exit which doesn't come off---what's plan "B"
Which I presume is a counter trend low as stated in your earlier post.

Will you ADD to the position?

corn 1.gif



S&P
Eventually traded at 1299.4 and then crapped itself.
Seems your analysis was slightly out on both time and price and again I presume the trade never got off the ground.


S@P.gif


I notice 1 and 5 tick stops
Do you think perhaps these maybe too tight?
Or
Is it common practice for Gann Practitioners to have extremely tight stops.
I can see the benefit---one win could have a massive R/R return and wipe out a whole string of minor losses.

Robert.
In your experience what sort of win rate do you expect.
Both entry and exit.

Ive always thought giving a finite number a very risky business and a ZONE of say 5 pt spread would possibly make the analysis far more accurate.

Have you ever investigated this?

Lastly I have found "Some" of Gann analysis un explain-ably accurate.
I Dont use it other than for amusement but can see where a trained practitioner could have it in an arsenal of tech tools. But again its all about how to extract a buck.

Hence my interest.---I'm not seeing a lot of bucks currently.
 
Question Robert

Your analysis is predictive.

Would every Gann practitioner using the same eg Astrological and other techniques you
are using. Arrive at the same Turning points in time and price as you would ?

Motorway
 
Thanks Tech I do appreciate those questions so bear with me for a few days and I will endeavour to answer them .

My research indicates that Wheat will complete a counter trend low into Tuesday 1st Febuary 2011 before resumption of uptrend possibly into Tuesday 8th Febuary . I need to do a bit more work on this trade . Pullback targets are * 813 - 814 .
 
So Both Corn and S@P didn't work out so both losses then?

I'm afraid the lack of trading information is GLARING.

Prior to a trade it appears to be flooding with Mars /Venus/Squares of Nine etc but once it goes past the deadline ---SILENCE. Unless of course it appears to be correct.

For me this really does display a lack of trade planning beyond entry.

The lack of APPLICATION is clear and as a trading vehical I'm afraid Robert you are NOT showing Real time trades.

This has become a typical non event GANN thread.
That makes about 5 in 17 years.
 
tech/a said:
The lack of APPLICATION is clear and as a trading vehical I'm afraid Robert you are NOT showing Real time trades.

This has become a typical non event GANN thread.
That makes about 5 in 17 years.
Click to expand...
Obviously a bogus date and price predictor with no chart provided (as we usually have to) and waffle or "my" analysis. And ignorant too. Surprised a "please explain" hasn't been issued but it seems the Gann dart boys are exempt.
 
Yes good point.

Perhaps Ill try a running commentary on VSA ---- that would be as easy to follow as "Band Gap fiberoptic Evaluation"
 
Wondered why all had gone quiet here.
Appears all charts are showing the Analysis didnt come off consequently all stopped out.

I'm afraid once again a lot of promise falling very short----when Gann is Applied in a Live Trading scenario it is at best no better than any other form of analysis and at worse a whole lot of effort and in many cases huge sums of money to "learn" how to plot it (Very little on how to apply it) with poor results.

Happy to see this thread continue but hey if the analysis fails then say so---demonstrate how your position was handled---re asses and on to the next.

Nothing wrong with Price not conforming to analysis --- happens to me all the time---its what you do with that information which is critical.

Come on GANN GUYS keep it up!

Wheat.gif
 
Top