Gann forecasts/real time trades

[Boggo]

Tech/A a lot of your volume analysis and chart patterns shown in the breakout thread can be found in Gann's How to Make Profits in Commodities written over 50 years ago (Form reading and signal days / gap sections). So it seems to me you are using gann analysis to some extent but are in denial about it lol.

From what I have read of Gann, Elliott and Fibonacci, they all seem to interact or have similarities.
Gann stated that "Most highs and lows are made in proportion to one or more previous sections of the trend or counter trend"
This is a combination of basic Elliott Wave and Fibonacci retracements, the only standout difference with Gann was that he placed more emphasis on time that either of the other methods.

Gann called a correction "an overbalance in time and price" and in EW lingo this is a correction in time and price but in both cases Fibinacci ratios play a significant role.

A lot of this star gazing stuff seems to be the course selling mystical theory but most of the practical application seems to be the basics as above.

 

[tech/a]

All I've asked is to show application of the analysis so people can see how its applied.

Thats what you do when you trade,apply the analysis.

Sorry this wet and gooey newbie got on a thread and got excited ... NOT . youve taken it over and its all yours ... its all about you ... how good you are and how terrrible everyone else seems to be ...FIGJAM comes to mind . sometimes i wonder why i bother

Whats this cr@p.

but if you read Gann's books most of it is about buy & sell points and trade management so you can trade CONSISTENTLY and PROFITABLY

I have (albeit a while ago) and cant say Ive seen anything of note.
Infact those who post Gann NEVER mention anything about it so it seems pretty obvious they Dont practice/follow Gann for the Trade management.

a lot of your volume analysis and chart patterns shown in the breakout thread can be found in Gann's How to Make Profits in Commodities written over 50 years ago

Its certainly not new Wyckoff,Williams,Krueger to name a few.
When I post I do include application,I show complete transparency win and lose.
Many still have trouble grasping the application of trading Breakouts (The way I do).
Its not hard.

 

[TulipFX]

The predictions are very Gann. Reminds me of Keynes' saying about being vaguely right and precisely wrong.

 

[motorway]

Most of what is good in GANN is generic imo ..

As you go from the earliest to the later material
it becomes more fantastic and original ( or seems to . He took a lot of stuff from astrology ,One guy who wrote a book on winning at the horses )

His volume analysis is no where near the sophistication of Wyckoff

imo

Synopsis

Sepharial (1864-1929) had a life-long dislike of luck. He challenged himself to find what he called "scientific rules" that would eliminate chance. And, according to his own accounts, he succeed.

In Law of Values, he suggests buying stocks immediately after they have been clobbered by Saturn, with the price as low as it will get, and then selling the stock immediately after being hit by Jupiter, when the price is likely to be as high as it will ever go. And living off dividends between the two.

In

The Silver Key, a book on horse-racing, Sepharial examines, and discards, conventional numerology, colours and symbols, in favor of a method based on the Moon, weights and tides. His results are impressive.

The Arcana, or Stock and Share Key, was one of a number of secret financial manuscripts which Sepharial sold by subscription only. In it, you will discover the secret to using the Meridian in day trading. Sepharial also gives instructions for using dispositors and decans. This is first time the Arcana has appeared in print.

Astrologers looking to improve their techniques, as well as investors looking to improve their portfolios, will find these books of interest.

Motorway

 

[luke256]

Tech/a you said:
"Infact those who post Gann NEVER mention anything about it so it seems pretty obvious they Dont practice/follow Gann for the Trade management."

- Just because people don't discuss Gann and his trade management on a forum doesn't mean it doesn't exist. He manages trades in New Stock Trend Dectector for Chrysler stock and numerous trading plans to suit various commodities in his course. If you had read the books thoroughly you would have seen the trade management (intitial stops and progressive stop movement). Is it Gann's fault that many people dont follow his methods as he instructed...i dont think so.

Just because you can't use Gann rules to trade doesn't mean someone else can't.

Its great when you post that you give a detailed example but others may be more interested in some basic chat and see where it goes. If RobertGorden can post more successful turning points wouldn't you be more interested in how he calculates the dates???

"Many still have trouble grasping the application of trading Breakouts (The way I do).
Its not hard." toot toot.....toot toot

 

[Boggo]

All I've asked is to show application of the analysis so people can see how its applied.

Thats what you do when you trade,apply the analysis.

I have (albeit a while ago) and cant say Ive seen anything of note.
Infact those who post Gann NEVER mention anything about it so it seems pretty obvious they Dont practice/follow Gann for the Trade management.

Tech/a you said:
"Infact those who post Gann NEVER mention anything about it so it seems pretty obvious they Dont practice/follow Gann for the Trade management."

- Just because people don't discuss Gann and his trade management on a forum doesn't mean it doesn't exist.

Its great when you post that you give a detailed example but others may be more interested in some basic chat and see where it goes. If RobertGorden can post more successful turning points wouldn't you be more interested in how he calculates the dates???

I am tending to agree with tech/a on this.

If someone pops up on here and starts a thread with the title "Gann forecasts/real time trades" surely they must expect to get asked a few questions and be asked to display the concept as Frank D did here
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=21362&p=600714&viewfull=1#post600714

If there are no charts forthcoming, no real time trades and a reluctance to answer any questions with anything but the standard cut and paste in as displayed in posts 5, 7 and 10 then don't go off on a tangent when the questions get more to the point and the responses confirm the original beliefs of those who were willing to have an open mind towards the concept.

Those are suited to this theory tend to remind me of days spent in classrooms with the Christian Brothers, ie, don't question what we say, just believe what we tell you and you won't have any problems in your time here.

 

[tech/a]

Just because you can't use Gann rules to trade doesn't mean someone else can't.

What on earth has this got to do with the discussion?
this is about application of Gann not whether I can use it or want to use it?
Why the hell would I?

Its great when you post that you give a detailed example but others may be more interested in some basic chat and see where it goes. If RobertGorden can post more successful turning points wouldn't you be more interested in how he calculates the dates???

Personally no.
As there are many turning points he can calculate and you as a follower of Gann would know that. Its pretty clear I'm interested in seeing how a practitioner of Gann can consistently apply the method to trade profitably. From the many possibilities a trader would have to at some point take a trade and manage it. If you've ever traded you'll know EXACTLY where I'm coming from.
If your just a theorist then you have no idea and think I'm P$sing in the wind.

"Many still have trouble grasping the application of trading Breakouts (The way I do).
Its not hard." toot toot.....toot toot

What is this Romper room---Are some of you people under 25?
If so I understand.

 

[FxTrader]

Once I moved from general theories which muddied my trading and concentrated purely on price and price movements, statistics and testing of price action I became profitable.

How true, a mirror of my own experience. The litmus test of any trading strategy for me is, does it suit my trading style and the markets I trade, are the rules easy to follow and is it profitable. Discussion of market theory, Gann, Elliott Wave etcetera is an interesting intellectual exercise but amounts to nothing without a trading plan and strategy that is profitable. Show me examples of the money making strategy in action or stop wasting my time, tech/a is spot on here.

Predicting tops and bottoms is a mug punters game IMO and I have yet to meet anyone who is a consistently profitible trader trying to do this. I go after the middle third of price movements. All that matters to me is trend, pivots and divergence and the profits that flow from this.

No matter which trade I take now, it is not a prediction, it is a statistical guess.

I prefer calculated risk or smart risk in reference to trading. Some of my friends equate trading with gambling out of ignorace but that's understandable since they are generally not risk takers anyway (at least they don't think they are.)

 

[robertgordon]

Thankyou for the input and I will endeavour to adress the questions put forward. My original Title for this thread was Gann . I did not Title the thread "Gann forecasts/real time trades" . My original Title has been adjusted and extended courtesy of the moderators. First Point .

Second Point : I have previously indicated that it is not within my interest or desire to post charts or diagrams associated with my research but I will endeavour to provide a reasonably detailed explanation on trade mechanics and the underlying reasoning behind each trade . The recent calls on Corn were out by one day which can and do occur from time to time but not everyones trading methodology can be consistently accurate over a large sample size of trades and please appreciate it is only early days and over the next few weeks or months I will be continuing on with my work and forecasting and endeavouring to trade live turning points within the commodity market as they prevail . I appreciate your request for charts and calculations but I am not here to provide a wholesale dissemination on the works and techniques of WD Gann .




In response to some queries

How true, a mirror of my own experience. The litmus test of any trading strategy for me is, does it suit my trading style.

This is quite a general observation as people will naturally construct or tailor their trading plans based upon a range of personalised factors much like when you sign up to Fernwood and fill out the questionare . Some people will only have limited time to monitor and conduct their trades as they are time poor and have external commitments therfore they can only allocate a small portion of their time to trading and system development . On the other hand the fulltime trader has the ability to monitor his positions and watch the fluctuations within the market on a realtime level . During times of quiet activity he can spend time researching ideas and streamlining his trading plan and evaluating his risk settings and parameters .


Predicting tops and bottoms is a mug punters game IMO and I have yet to meet anyone who is a consistently profitible trader trying to do this. I go after the middle third of price movements. All that matters to me is trend, pivots and divergence and the profits that flow from this.

My predictions are not based upon a set of arbitrary observations . My calculations are based upon certain scientific principles and geometric values and when these factors move into alignment they usually co incide with a top or bottom .
These Timing Principles endeavour to measure the evolving peaks and troughs within the market as that is their primary function . These Techniques and methods are not orientated or designed to identifying breakout points or 180ema crossovers . Momentum based oscilators are an artificial intrepretation of price action and are effectively lagging indicators . Every movement within the market is a result of Natural Law and the cause exists long before the effect takes place so from my perspective it would be prudent to employ the techniques and methods that I have learnt over several years as a tool to identify and calculate possible high probability turning points.

Not everyone one of these turning points is going to be a high magnitude turning point .They might constitute a week long selloff point or a multi week selloff point but as I expained the intrinsic nature of my system is oriented towards locating turning points and entering into a position with a calculated level of risk and a forward based trading plan that will outline important time points in the future where my position may be at risk and other spiral price prokections based on the Square of Nine . A detailed risk analysis is a central componet of my trading system and dependent upon how many bushells are traded and how far my entry point off the top determines the overall risk on any given trade . So all of these componets are integrated and play an equally important role in my decision making and trade execution .

As Tech has outlined two forecasts arent much to go on and it is important to see how one fares over a range of market conditions and periods of volatility so bear with me and I will place a few more trades up in advance and outline the risk parameters on each trade and what contigency plan I have just in case the position moves against me . My style is geared towards waiting for a projected date to come in and then once all of the co ordinates and Timing lines up I will seek to use my squares and calculators to zero in on price . I think whilst one may have the ability to forward project high probability turning points one must also be able to accurately qualify a price level that can be proven geometrically and mathematically because its no good saying you expect a low on 18th March but the average range in corn might be 10c so depending upon your entry level you could be risking 500.00 on one contract so you can appreciate the importance of price alignment and time alignment

 

[tech/a]

How true, a mirror of my own experience. The litmus test of any trading strategy for me is, does it suit my trading style.

Keep seeing this and I find it just doesn't cut it. I've also seen it used at seminars when someone comes up with a fantastic question which absolutely nails the presenter.
Next you hear---"seriously this method wont suit every traders personality---if it doesn't suit you then find something that does"---- awkward moment avoided.

The litmus test for me is
DOES IT MAKE CONSISTENT PROFITS

This is quite a general observation as people will naturally construct or tailor their trading plans based upon a range of personalised factors much like when you sign up to Fernwood and fill out the questionare . Some people will only have limited time to monitor and conduct their trades as they are time poor and have external commitments therfore they can only allocate a small portion of their time to trading and system development . On the other hand the fulltime trader has the ability to monitor his positions and watch the fluctuations within the market on a realtime level . During times of quiet activity he can spend time researching ideas and streamlining his trading plan and evaluating his risk settings and parameters .

Good profitable trading ---contrary to opinion---(Generally those not profitable) is as boring as hell and takes around 1 hr a day--tops

My predictions are not based upon a set of arbitrary observations . My calculations are based upon certain scientific principles and geometric values and when these factors move into alignment they usually co incide with a top or bottom .
These Timing Principles endeavour to measure the evolving peaks and troughs within the market as that is their primary function . These Techniques and methods are not orientated or designed to identifying breakout points or 180ema crossovers . Momentum based oscilators are an artificial intrepretation of price action and are effectively lagging indicators . Every movement within the market is a result of Natural Law and the cause exists long before the effect takes place so from my perspective it would be prudent to employ the techniques and methods that I have learnt over several years as a tool to identify and calculate possible high probability turning points.

Not everyone one of these turning points is going to be a high magnitude turning point .They might constitute a week long selloff point or a multi week selloff point but as I expained the intrinsic nature of my system is oriented towards locating turning points and entering into a position with a calculated level of risk and a forward based trading plan that will outline important time points in the future where my position may be at risk and other spiral price prokections based on the Square of Nine . A detailed risk analysis is a central componet of my trading system and dependent upon how many bushells are traded and how far my entry point off the top determines the overall risk on any given trade . So all of these componets are integrated and play an equally important role in my decision making and trade execution .

There are dozens of ways to find a "possible pressure point" on a chart.
Plotting them all takes a great deal of time and their importance will be greatly enhanced by their confluence around each other. Some but not limited to are.

Geometric charts
Angles: 1*1, 2*1, 1*2 etc.
Price Squares: The Square of 144; The Square of the Range
The Square of Nine
Time cycles
The Planets and Geometric Vibration

Where there is limited or no confluence there is less "significance"

The issue in APPLICATION is
Which ones do you take? and where do you exit?---going forward toward other pressure points.

As Tech has outlined two forecasts arent much to go on and it is important to see how one fares over a range of market conditions and periods of volatility so bear with me and I will place a few more trades up in advance and outline the risk parameters on each trade and what contigency plan I have just in case the position moves against me . My style is geared towards waiting for a projected date to come in and then once all of the co ordinates and Timing lines up I will seek to use my squares and calculators to zero in on price . I think whilst one may have the ability to forward project high probability turning points one must also be able to accurately qualify a price level that can be proven geometrically and mathematically because its no good saying you expect a low on 18th March but the average range in corn might be 10c so depending upon your entry level you could be risking 500.00 on one contract so you can appreciate the importance of price alignment and time alignment

This would be good.

I have previously indicated that it is not within my interest or desire to post charts or diagrams associated with my research but I will endeavour to provide a reasonably detailed explanation on trade mechanics and the underlying reasoning behind each trade . The recent calls on Corn were out by one day which can and do occur from time to time but not everyones trading methodology can be consistently accurate over a large sample size of trades and please appreciate it is only early days and over the next few weeks or months I will be continuing on with my work and forecasting and endeavouring to trade live turning points within the commodity market as they prevail . I appreciate your request for charts and calculations but I am not here to provide a wholesale dissemination on the works and techniques of WD Gann .

Not asking for a guided seminar in the use of Gann.

To mark "pressure points" on a chart particularly if you use Gann software (http://www.gannalyst.com/Gannalyst_Professional/Gannalyst_PriceTools_PriceRange1.shtml) or similar is a no brainer and not that hard.
99.9% of people wouldn't understand how you derived that point and if they care to find out they do the course and buy the software.
But 99.9% of people would be able to see your analysis clearer in a visual sense particularly if you labelled your charts.


The chart mystery rivals the "This isn't for everybody" group.

The sceptic in me says--there is no chart---or there is someone else's chart and these people are great cut and pasters.

Here are a couple of marked up Gann Charts (Not mine) but you can see the Myriad of Intersections and these are mainly with fans and squares!!!!

Can you see my point on applying this into a meaningful trading method!!

People pay 10000'S $ to learn to place these lines on a chart. Great looks fantastic to LOOK BACK ON---but forward.





I agree it would be good to see the analysis applied and easy to follow.
Over to you Robert.

 

[sails]

Tech, I think you have shown clearly where many Gann style educators use hindsight to advantage. There is little consistency in which particular lines are hit.

I started trading with Gann style "education" but then didn't continue due to the excessive price of subsequent courses. Instead, I set up all important dates - both major and minor - and then projected the relevant fractions of all known major squares in both time and price. I included all the usual 1x1 1x2, etc lines as well. Also the first range out from any major turn was also used as a square and projected out in time and price.

I didn't do this on a chart. Way too messy. I was using an older software program that produced excellent reports. This way I was able to print out the days that had something significant from the Gann style of analysis. And there were usually several "significant" things coming together on almost any given day meaning a potential change of trend...

As a result, I was always too scared to get on a trend because it was likely to change trend.

From a marketing viewpont, it would be so easy to point out that a change of trend was because so many squares of x or a 1x? line or whatever. It was exactly how I got conned (IMO) into purchasing the course in the first place as it looked as if the markets could be worked out mathematically and I was too new to know better at the time.

The only time I saw anything potentially work (other than the simple calendar day counts that I posted some time ago and that was in conjunction with other T/A) was when there was a major clustering of the square of 256 from several major highs and lows. Extreme volatility errupted at that time with the SPI moving many times more than it's normal daily ranges. Now, that would be a spectacular marketing thing for an educator. I don't remember seeing that sort of volatility repeat again at 256 days later so I suspect it was just a co-incidence.

The above said, I'm not saying that Gann style T/A doesn't work. Robert Gordon may be one of those who has found a way to make it consistently useful although I think the majority will struggle with it. So far his calls seem to be quite accurate, so I will continue to watch this thread with much interest...

 

[robertgordon]

If you have read TTTA you will know who Robert Gordon is . Sails ? .. Or wasnt it on the reading list through SITM ?

My analysis indicates that The SP500 has topped and look for 1290 to hold . If we trade lower than this level on Monday opening we may see some good downside .

 

[sails]

If you have read TTTA you will know who Robert Gordon is . Sails ? .. Or wasnt it on the reading list through SITM ?

My analysis indicates that The SP500 has topped and look for 1290 to hold . If we trade lower than this level on Monday opening we may see some good downside .

Yes, I have Tunnel Thru The Air (purchased through SITM..) but it's been a long time since trying to make some sense of it. Just had a look at the book and found Robert Gordon...

I started with SITM about 13-14 years ago and then struggled with trying to make a go of it for a few years after that-with very little luck. When I get time to trade, I use a little bit of time analysis in conjunction with other TA - and some of that is options related.

Anyway, keep up the good work with some forecasts as, in my experience, most Gann educators seem to use the easy hindsight stunts that I outlined in my last post on this thread and it is good to see your calls in real time...

 

[TulipFX]

Can you please announce trades rather then vague market movements?

 

[tech/a]

Can you please announce trades rather then vague market movements?

My analysis indicates that The SP500 has topped and look for 1290 to hold . If we trade lower than this level on Monday opening we may see some good downside

So being a trader of Gann you would take a short trade IF trading was lower than 1290 on Monday with a stop at the high of the S&P or no stop?

Or would you just watch it?

 

[robertgordon]

Can you please announce trades rather then vague market movements?

How much more clearer would you like me to make it for you ?
Would you like me to type it out in brail so you can comprehend it ?

Just in case you missed the point I am looking for a Top in the SP500 at approximately 1290 which happened on Friday close so if the price trades below that figure I will be sitting back in my armchair with a glass of Cognac watching the market and procastinating upon what I will do next .

 

[Wysiwyg]

Sugar 29.50 30th December should turn out to be Low .

After the event so consolation 1/1

Corn Tuesday 4th January 2011 Seasonal Top.

Forecast and wrong. 1/2

belit
Tonight we should see Lumber trade lower than than the 27th December Top 316 .
We can see that Time has moved beyond 180 degrees from the 23rd June 2010 Low and the current price of 316 is trading below the 45 degree angle . Time has also balanced from the Nov 4th Top to Nov 30th Low which equals 26 degrees , if we project 26 degrees out from Nov 30th we come close to balancing time into the 27th December Top 316.

Wrong. So one right out of three.

 

[FxTrader]

Keep seeing this and I find it just doesn't cut it. I've also seen it used at seminars when someone comes up with a fantastic question which absolutely nails the presenter.
Next you hear---"seriously this method wont suit every traders personality---if it doesn't suit you then find something that does"---- awkward moment avoided.

The litmus test for me is
DOES IT MAKE CONSISTENT PROFITS

Well tech, thanks for your partial misquote and misinterpretation of what I said. Selectively quoting someone out of context "doesn't cut it". What I actually said in full was...

The litmus test of any trading strategy for me is, does it suit my trading style and the markets I trade, are the rules easy to follow and is it profitable.

What I mean by "trading style" is that I'm a short term trader using highly leveraged instruments, not a buy and hold equities investor. Sadly, you only saw my statements as an opportunity for a beat up and to make a useless point. Well done.

 

[sails]

After the event so consolation 1/1

Forecast and wrong. 1/2

Wrong. So one right out of three.

Didn't corn turn out OK, Wysiwyg? According to Ginar's posts and charts it looks like it might be two right out of three.

robertgordon's post:

Corn January 10th should turn out to be counter trend low before resumption of uptrend.

Two reply posts from ginar with charts:
(click on the green arrow afer ginar's name to find the charts)

well 4th pretty close to top , 10th swing low for resumption of uptrend . i'll keep an eye on it .

Tell you what im pretty impressed with the calls on corn so far , havent looked at any of the other calls . keep em coming

A bit off topic but it is somewhat curious that ginar and robertgordon both often put a space before a full stop or comma. It is quite an unusual habit (IMO) and wonder why they would both do this...

 

[robertgordon]

With the SP500 analysis some cycles indicate that either Friday 14th January was Top at 1290 or Monday 17th January tonight will be Top so I am working with both possibilities .

My revised price targets are 1290 as stated . 1296 . 1300 or 1311 . which is ok as we have four price levels to work with . there is a good probability that 17th January will be Top for the SP500 so my trading strategy would be to wait and see how price opens and if it trades up to around any of these levels and then sells off . So will have to watch the intraday price tonight to gauge which one of these levels is going to serve as resist which can be a little tricky but if for example 1300 gets hit three times in 60 minutes thhat might be a pretty good indication that level will hold , apply same strategy for all price target but the main aspect is looking to Top into 17th January .