Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Gann forecasts/real time trades

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wayneL said:
Eh? Two spaces after a full stop is not correct AFAIK...
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Wayne, my typing teacher agreed with Ruby...:)

But that's a long time ago so maybe it has changed. I still put two spaces after full stops automatically but perhaps ASF software changes it.

Anyway, back to the Gann discussions...:couch..:D:D
 
You still have to see what happens when you get there
and deal with that as it occurs..
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Absolutely

The entire Population of interest may change by orders of magnitudes..
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Which we have all observed.
In fact we would at---- analysis points ---EXPECT.

hope thats ok for you
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Yes excellent.
 
You well may project forward from a certain pivot..
That represented a disequilibrium at a certain time and yes it could play out in a certain way

Gann stated that in order to correctly and accurately ascertain forward movements in Commodities we must begin from the correct starting point . A new seasonal High or Low would constitute a legitimate starting point and a detailed examination of the underlying causes that determined the move to stop and reverse at that point are of primary interest to me . The Principles of Natural Law are a deterministic componet and are behind all market movements . It is the case that sometimes we dont posess the perceptual elements or have the right level of knowledge to be able to perceive or understand how these Laws operate and exert their influences upon price at a given point . Most punters are physchologically conditioned or lack the adequate perceptual framework to seek out the underlying causes and primary elements that are intrinsically connected to price fluctuations but then again the majority of people exhibit herd characteristics so the concept of a set of deterministic principles controlling markets is too difficult for them to grasp and goes against conventional lines of thought . You mention the disequilibrium that is evident at low points but how can we accurately identify when a positive line of force will exert itself that is proportional to are larger in magnitude to the opposing forces that were in existence when the instrument was running down . And if we can accurately ascertain when this line of force will come into effect and examine its structural framework and seek to identify how it will govern the movement of the instrument under observation . In every Law of Nature there exists a minor and a major , a positive and a negative and a neutral .
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However as price moves higher or lower.. The entire Population of interest may change by orders of magnitudes.. What are the fundamental componets that cause price to swing from High to Low and how can these characteristics be measured and formulated into an accurate timing mechanism . obviously as an instrument gathers momentum on a downward slope there had to exist a harmonic balance of force or a higher magnitude level of force to tip that instrument over and sustain its downward momentum , we can appreciate that a different set of principles will be required to move the object in an upward trajectory .




Hence along a Price Time projection while price may well intersect at some stage
it could be anywhere along the line of "Forward Support and Resistance"

a 45 degree angle is simply a gauge . it holds no deterministic and causal qualities . it is merely a balanced forward projection of time and price co ordinates that should be observed and integrated against other factors .


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In that case does having a preconceived potential TOP fixed in the mind..
cause more problems ( hence why certain Gann does not seem to work ) than just using the objective line to gauge changes in momentum ?

My projections are based upon an examinination of Natural Forces that will be activated at a certain date and it is my objective to try and quantify how that particular line of force or in some cases multiple lines of force will impact upon an instrument and subsequently alter the position of that instrument . In order for an upwards or downwards movement to commence an equal line of force or a greater line of force needs to come into existence and impact the price of Corn on the 4th January
 
The Principles of Natural Law are a deterministic componet and are behind all market movements . It is the case that sometimes we dont posess the perceptual elements or have the right level of knowledge to be able to perceive or understand how these Laws operate and exert their influences upon price at a given point . Most punters are physchologically conditioned or lack the adequate perceptual framework to seek out the underlying causes and primary elements that are intrinsically connected to price fluctuations but then again the majority of people exhibit herd characteristics so the concept of a set of deterministic principles controlling markets is too difficult for them to grasp and goes against conventional lines of thought
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This is the typical Gann argument directed at those who question and indeed debunk aspects of it.
I've seen similar circular argument used by religion.
Those who follow Gann are depicted as "More Intelligent" or "Gifted".
This has the paying disciples all running for their cheque books because complexity is expensive and once known IS the holy grail.

As always proof is in the application and over 17 yrs of forums I've not seen a great deal of practical application from a number of proficient exponents of Gann.

In order for an upwards or downwards movement to commence an equal line of force or a greater line of force needs to come into existence and impact the price of Corn on the 4th January
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As much as you would like to think "external" factors will govern price only one will.
Supply OR Demand.
Who cares how it is determined.
You'll see it reflected in price either over a longer time frame or the minute it happens.
 
robertgordon said:
. The Principles of Natural Law are a deterministic componet and are behind all market movements . It is the case that sometimes we dont posess the perceptual elements or have the right level of knowledge to be able to perceive or understand how these Laws operate and exert their influences upon price at a given point . Most punters are physchologically conditioned or lack the adequate perceptual framework to seek out the underlying causes and primary elements that are intrinsically connected to price fluctuations but then again the majority of people exhibit herd characteristics so the concept of a set of deterministic principles controlling markets is too difficult for them to grasp and goes against conventional lines of thought . You mention the disequilibrium that is evident at low points but how can we accurately identify when a positive line of force will exert itself that is proportional to are larger in magnitude to the opposing forces that were in existence when the instrument was running down . And if we can accurately ascertain when this line of force will come into effect and examine its structural framework and seek to identify how it will govern the movement of the instrument under observation . In every Law of Nature there exists a minor and a major , a positive and a negative and a neutral .
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Are you talking about Hobbes' 19 Laws of of Nature? I see no relevance here. Aristotle said nothing much which would apply to markets.

To me markets, be they on ebay, garage sales, Toyko fish markets and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange all operate using 3 simple parts.

  1. Demand
  2. Supply
  3. Price

There is nothing positive or negative in price. It just is. I started trading looking to use fundamentals and predictions to take positions. Very quickly I learnt to disregard what I thought. The only thing that matters is the price. The price (historical and current) contains all the information within its simple 5 digits.

Once I moved from general theories which muddied my trading and concentrated purely on price and price movements, statistics and testing of price action I became profitable.

No matter which trade I take now, it is not a prediction, it is a statistical guess. People ask me for my opinion/prediction on matters - first thing I tell them is I never trade my opinions or predictions. This could be a weakness in my ability to predict the markets, others might be able to predict profitably.
 
Any more on Corn?
Would a trade be instigated yet?
Any further "dates"?
 
So the 4th was not a trade.

So again looking at practical application the 10Th low
When should we place a trade (Hypothetically)
How would you position size (Number of contracts)
Where is our stop (Would you use one)
Where is it going (I presume Gann gives points of exit).
What is the exit strategy.
 
well 4th pretty close to top , 10th swing low for resumption of uptrend . i'll keep an eye on it .
 

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ginar said:
well 4th pretty close to top , 10th swing low for resumption of uptrend . i'll keep an eye on it .
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Tell you what im pretty impressed with the calls on corn so far , havent looked at any of the other calls . keep em coming
 

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Wow very impressive.
What would be more impressive is actually having the conviction to show a trading application.

Whats the point in marking up your chart and just watching it all un fold in front of you.

My theory is that most Gann analysts actually Dont trade.

The have Traded/seen enough of their analysis fail and as such are not confident in any application of the analysis using cold hard cash.

It all looks really clever when it works and it will from time to time.
But really ugly when it doesn't and it doesn't more often than not.
From the analysis I've seen from other exponents Yogi being one

Keep it coming BUT how about some real life application.

Place trade here
Stop here
Exit here.

THEN we can see over time how impressive it really is.
 
tech/a said:
Wow very impressive.
What would be more impressive is actually having the conviction to show a trading application.

Whats the point in marking up your chart and just watching it all un fold in front of you.

My theory is that most Gann analysts actually Dont trade.

The have Traded/seen enough of their analysis fail and as such are not confident in any application of the analysis using cold hard cash.

It all looks really clever when it works and it will from time to time.
But really ugly when it doesn't and it doesn't more often than not.
From the analysis I've seen from other exponents Yogi being one

Keep it coming BUT how about some real life application.

Place trade here
Stop here
Exit here.

THEN we can see over time how impressive it really is.
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Why is it necessary for him to post his trading system (entry, exit and stop management) on a public forum. If he can continue calling tops and bottoms in advance isn't that enough to show Gann forecasting can work.
 
tech/a said:
Wow very impressive.
What would be more impressive is actually having the conviction to show a trading application.

Whats the point in marking up your chart and just watching it all un fold in front of you.

My theory is that most Gann analysts actually Dont trade.

The have Traded/seen enough of their analysis fail and as such are not confident in any application of the analysis using cold hard cash.

It all looks really clever when it works and it will from time to time.
But really ugly when it doesn't and it doesn't more often than not.
From the analysis I've seen from other exponents Yogi being one

Keep it coming BUT how about some real life application.

Place trade here
Stop here
Exit here.

THEN we can see over time how impressive it really is.
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Tech, I think you are being a bit hard. They were two good calls, made in advance. How about giving some credit? Your theory that Gann analysts don't trade is only that - a theory. I know of two who do, and who make a good living from it.
 
luke256 said:
Why is it necessary for him to post his trading system (entry, exit and stop management) on a public forum. If he can continue calling tops and bottoms in advance isn't that enough to show Gann forecasting can work.
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Give me a break he is giving his "Predictions" and he's got one on the money.
That doesnt constitute profitable trading over the long term.
Thats the problem with most of the Noobs they get all wet and gooey when they see a correct call and think EVERY call is a winner.
I traded a method live on "The other " Forum for 5 yrs many learnt from that that its not about a correct call or infact a group of correct calls.
Trading is about TRADING----consistently and profitably---I'm asking ---and not unfairly in my opinion to demonstrate that. Gann education has a lot to answer for.
people spend 1000s and have NO IDEA how to TRADE.

Its not hard Entry/Stop/Exit and lets see how it pans out over 6-12 mths.

Ruby said:
Tech, I think you are being a bit hard. They were two good calls, made in advance. How about giving some credit? Your theory that Gann analysts don't trade is only that - a theory. I know of two who do, and who make a good living from it.
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Im not seeing anything which contradicts my "theory"


They are GREAT CALLS
Now see above and I look forward to further analysis.
Ive made 5 more calls as great on the Breakout thread.
It aint that hard.

I watched a guy who lectured Gann trade.
Mate he had NO IDEA!
Was an expert in showing me where it worked but had no idea how to apply it as in a trading method.
 
Its funny how everytime someone mentions Gann everyone expects a forecast, but if you read Gann's books most of it is about buy & sell points and trade management so you can trade CONSISTENTLY and PROFITABLY. Most people i have talked to who are using gann think they need to be having visions while foaming at the mouth or have the moon line up with uranus to take a trade. That is BS and why i think Gann gets a bad reputation.

Tech/A a lot of your volume analysis and chart patterns shown in the breakout thread can be found in Gann's How to Make Profits in Commodities written over 50 years ago (Form reading and signal days / gap sections). So it seems to me you are using gann analysis to some extent but are in denial about it lol.
 
tech/a said:
Give me a break he is giving his "Predictions" and he's got one on the money.
That doesnt constitute profitable trading over the long term.
Thats the problem with most of the Noobs they get all wet and gooey when they see a correct call and think EVERY call is a winner.
I traded a method live on "The other " Forum for 5 yrs many learnt from that that its not about a correct call or infact a group of correct calls.
Trading is about TRADING----consistently and profitably---I'm asking ---and not unfairly in my opinion to demonstrate that. Gann education has a lot to answer for.
people spend 1000s and have NO IDEA how to TRADE.

Its not hard Entry/Stop/Exit and lets see how it pans out over 6-12 mths.



Im not seeing anything which contradicts my "theory"


They are GREAT CALLS
Now see above and I look forward to further analysis.
Ive made 5 more calls as great on the Breakout thread.
It aint that hard.

I watched a guy who lectured Gann trade.
Mate he had NO IDEA!
Was an expert in showing me where it worked but had no idea how to apply it as in a trading method.
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Sorry this wet and gooey newbie got on a thread and got excited ... NOT . youve taken it over and its all yours ... its all about you ... how good you are and how terrrible everyone else seems to be ...FIGJAM comes to mind . sometimes i wonder why i bother .... and im sure robertgorden feels the same , the fact that RG has called two swing pivots in ADVANCE gives him a right to have his say without being attacked but i will let him say that . if by the smallest chance he continues to post i will read and keep any thoughts i have to myself , and please dont catergorize me , you dont have enough data to back test that ;-) .
 
ginar said:
Sorry this wet and gooey newbie got on a thread and got excited ... NOT . youve taken it over and its all yours ... its all about you ... how good you are and how terrrible everyone else seems to be ...FIGJAM comes to mind . sometimes i wonder why i bother .... and im sure robertgorden feels the same , the fact that RG has called two swing pivots in ADVANCE gives him a right to have his say without being attacked but i will let him say that . if by the smallest chance he continues to post i will read and keep any thoughts i have to myself , and please dont catergorize me , you dont have enough data to back test that ;-) .
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Well spoken!;)
 
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