Fundamental vs. Technical

[systematic]

Did I miss something? Are we talking crypto, or stocks, or? Carnage? I'm fully 'in' as usual and within a few percent of an equity high. So is the broad market. Anyway, don't want to take this further away from the topic of the thread, sorry.

@Captain_Chaza I'm assuming the fundamentalists in this thread are those who get overly religious about their technical analysis?

 

[Ann]

I promise you
You will know the bottom when you see it

First of all you will see bodies floating to the surface
and
Then you'll hear the Fundamentalists screaming "RECESSION is now here"

Soon as you hear those Magical Screaming Sounds from the Fundamentalists

It is time to go back to sea with a Full Spread of Sail presented to the Wind

I am surprised no one seems to be seeing the black clouds gathering above the triple top except us, bet everyone will get very excited with the coming dead cat bounce eh @Captain_Chaza?

Interesting description of a bottom my Captain,
I shall look out for it, sounds almost, dare I say, like Fundamental Analysis to me!

I used to call it a bottom after the main indices rose above the 200dsma, however, I am now seeing profound volume spikes scattered here and there on various indices and ETFs after all the previous crashes had bottomed. My eyes are going to be peeled for these volume spikes on my charts next time.

 

[Captain_Chaza]

Did I miss something? Are we talking crypto, or stocks, or? Carnage? I'm fully 'in' as usual and within a few percent of an equity high. So is the broad market. Anyway, don't want to take this further away from the topic of the thread, sorry.

@Captain_Chaza I'm assuming the fundamentalists in this thread are those who get overly religious about their technical analysis?

I am only referring those who Bloviate on Fundamental Analysis

 

[systematic]

I am only referring those who Bloviate on Fundamental Analysis

Thanks for clarifying. As I've said here in the past; I think the same applies to many who say they follow technical analysis (or bloviate on it...ha ha, good one, I've learned a new word today!).

Correct me if I'm wrong, but in this thread you're picturing someone who is trying to form a macro view and/or pin down the valuation (or 'real value') of a company etc. In which case, I agree.
The difference (I think) is...I paint those who approach price movement subjectively with the same brush. (i.e. picture the 'chartist' drawing lines or adding indicators...and coming up with some sort of analysis of the stock or the current macro state etc). I don't see a difference in either picture.

In other words, the source of data (price, volume, financial statements, news/social media, macro data) doesn't make the difference between whether you're objective or subjective in your approach to investing. Or again, in other words, the very old, 'TA vs FA' thing is a pitting of 2 things that don't particularly exist (at least not in my mind).

My take on this subject is:
I see those who make subjective, discretionary decisions and those who (at least try) to follow a quantitative approach based on empirical evidence (which is a minefield of danger, itself). Regardless of the data they use.

For example: you can give me only price data, and I'll still take a quantitative, objective and empirical based approach...vs a qualitative, subjective and theoretical approach.

 

[Value Collector]

For me, Fundamental investing just comes down to predicting the income stream of assets and comparing that to the price you are going to pay upfront, and making a decision given various factors on whether that’s a sensible price to pay for the asset, to me that’s a very rational way to approach long term investing whether you are investing in shares, businesses, real estate, bonds, farmland, intellectual property, mineral royalties, water rights etc etc etc.

Where as fundamental analysis seems to more about ignoring the underlying assets, and instead just trying to watch market signals and jump in and out of assets and making money off short term price movements.

I guess it just comes down to your own personality as to which you prefer, I personally like being a long term holder of quality assets, so fundamental analysis suits me.

 

[divs4ever]

For me, Fundamental investing just comes down to predicting the income stream of assets and comparing that to the price you are going to pay upfront, and making a decision given various factors on whether that’s a sensible price to pay for the asset, to me that’s a very rational way to approach long term investing whether you are investing in shares, businesses, real estate, bonds, farmland, intellectual property, mineral royalties, water rights etc etc etc.

Where as fundamental analysis seems to more about ignoring the underlying assets, and instead just trying to watch market signals and jump in and out of assets and making money off short term price movements.

I guess it just comes down to your own personality as to which you prefer, I personally like being a long term holder of quality assets, so fundamental analysis suits me.

yes VC , i can relate to your approach

cheers

 

[Captain_Chaza]

OK!
Let's get REAL for a moment
Sailing the ASX or any other Global Exchange is not easy

It is all about the FA vs TA

"Can anyone here "HANDLE THE TRUTH?"


"Would a True Life at Sea Exercise Drill in Real Time be any help?

Well, I am prepared to give my Technical Analysis on the Seaworthiness of any craft after any FA'er has set sail
Some sort of Declaration/Proof of sale would naturally be required
Otherwise I would be inundated with that many requests I could not handle any

Except in the case of my Brave and Loyal Crew which I have had onboard for close to 15 years

Unfortunately, there is only ONE (1) left at sea alive nowadays

ie: My 1st Officer Braveheart ( Ann)

I will always furnish her with my best Seaworthy Report I can do before she gets tied up with those greedy sweet FA'ers

She has said on another thread here on ASF that she likes charting /Sailing on shares she does not own

What you do not realize my most loyal 1st mate Braveheart Ann
You like it because you are more successful on these Lack of/ No Fundamental Knowledge

You are more successful on these trades because you are strictly working from your CHARTS

It's As Easy As That!

You shouldn't even know what they are doing
( That's too much information (IMHO)

What I am saying Is
Beware of the Bloviate Sweet FA'ers with all their noise

It can be very deafening out at sea and " Mistakes Will Happen"

The Charts Say it All
If they don't then just wait till they do !

It's not rocket science here
It's just the Simple art of SEAMANSHIP



I

 

[tech/a]

Is there anything of interest in this thread other than waffle?

 

[Captain_Chaza]

Is there anything of interest in this thread other than waffle?

Nothing for You!

My advise to you is keep reading the Company reports over the weekend and BUY at Friday's close on Monday

The only place you can do this on this PLANET is at the ASF Monthly Competition
Crikey!
Who else on this PLANET runs a Competition based on a Friday's Close!!!
That Starts on Monday ???

 

[tech/a]

Your right

Those that know what they are doing don’t need threads like this
Those that don’t know need threads like this
All they show ( Threads like this ) is what you don’t know.

Delusion is like dementia you function but you’ve got no idea what you’re doing !

 

[Boggo]

Is there anything of interest in this thread other than waffle?

I was hoping there would be too but I’m fundamentally 100% with you on this one.

 

[Captain_Chaza]

Your right

Those that know what they are doing don’t need threads like this
Those that don’t know need threads like this
All they show ( Threads like this ) is what you don’t know.

Delusion is like dementia you function but you’ve got no idea what you’re doing !

I am more than happy to see you go
You contribute NOTHING

 

[tech/a]

Oh I’m not sure about that
20000 posts
5300 reactions

Ya got a bit of work to do on the contribution side of the ledger .
A Fundamental observation..

 

[Captain_Chaza]

Oh I’m not sure about that
20000 posts
5300 reactions

Ya got a bit of work to do on the contribution side of the ledger .
A Fundamental observation..

All I meant
" You are not welcome on this thread" and
that you have contributed" Nothing to this Thread"
Whether you have contributed in other threads is of no interest to me

 

[Value Collector]

For me, Fundamental investing just comes down to predicting the income stream of assets and comparing that to the price you are going to pay upfront, and making a decision given various factors on whether that’s a sensible price to pay for the asset, to me that’s a very rational way to approach long term investing whether you are investing in shares, businesses, real estate, bonds, farmland, intellectual property, mineral royalties, water rights etc etc etc.

Where as fundamental analysis seems to more about ignoring the underlying assets, and instead just trying to watch market signals and jump in and out of assets and making money off short term price movements.

I guess it just comes down to your own personality as to which you prefer, I personally like being a long term holder of quality assets, so fundamental analysis suits me.

oops, The second paragraph was meant to read "Where a technical analysis"

 

[tech/a]

Warning Personal Content on topic.

I think there is an essential component missing in the Technical/Fundamental discussion

Systematic trading is Often bracketed with technical trading.

To me, Fundamentals are as accurate as long Term Technical analysis. regardless of the investment method used the more extended the timeframe the more likely conditions will change.

All analyses used by an experienced technician, Fundamental, Technical, and Systematic work fine until they don't. That Don't is usually a macro change in either the overall market OR in the individual stock, index, or commodity being traded.

Technical analysis and more specifically for me Charting give me a VISUAL representation of what's happening in all markets and I can see it in both MACRO and MICRO Frames. Not only that but it can show me where I'm right and Where I'm Wrong again visually sometimes (in Minutes when trading Futs) but always quick enough to take action. The biggest drawback is NOT acting on what the Chart is saying. Holding on to a personal belief can be very expensive. There have been discussions on my part in both the MAY thread and FMG thread ---not saying people are wrong in how they trade but for ME waste when there needn't be.

Systematic Trading is a gathering of buy, sell and risk management parameters fed into a program that you trade if under testing you find it robust and returning a good and consistent profit. The disadvantage is that you cannot use discretion if you wish to mimic the results under testing. You're expecting the market to remain similar to the testing period and the System to return similar tested returns.

One thing I also find amusing is the mantra " I'm at a paper loss of 50%" These are delusional comments the value of your portfolio or commodity is what you can get for it at the click of the mouse NOW.

Psychology plays a massive role particularly if you have no way of replacing funds (retirement without passive income). Even in a $1 million or more fund, the loss of $10000 is unpalatable and if it is your Risk management needs attention. Otherwise, a $100,000 loss could be next. I've seen this in people I know.
Sure if undermanagement then they have no control and adhere to the paper loss mantra and the other well-honed one "Its time IN the market not TIMING the market"

All well and good if you have the time and resources.

 

[Ann]

She has said on another thread here on ASF that she likes charting /Sailing on shares she does not own

What you do not realize my most loyal 1st mate Braveheart Ann
You like it because you are more successful on these Lack of/ No Fundamental Knowledge

You are more successful on these trades because you are strictly working from your CHARTS

Ahoy, my Captain!

A goodly percentage of my charts carry a brief description of their cargo (what they do/dig up). I always read the notices of anything I hold. As far as using FA to guide my investments...noooo! For me, I only see FA as a company spinning a good story and their figures are so far in the past to be useless. The chart movements contain all the current FA that I need and it is totally up to date.

Having said that, I have seen charts that have been built using FA, unrelated to price, this is a fascinating thing and if a person can see FA in their heads like I saw FA on these particular charts, then I might acknowledge FA and its value. One of the contributors here was working on that a few years ago but I have forgotten his name.

As far as charting something I don't hold, it is merely the pleasure of being able to read without bias. I actually don't have a whole lot of difference re the success or failure rate between a held stock reading or an opined stock reading. On reflection, I think the charts I read for myself are more likely to be successful as I spend more time thinking about them and I have skin in the game.

 

[Value Collector]

Psychology plays a massive role particularly if you have no way of replacing funds (retirement without passive income). Even in a $1 million or more fund, the loss of $10000 is unpalatable and if it is your Risk management needs attention. Otherwise, a $100,000 loss could be next. I've seen this in people I know.
Sure if undermanagement then they have no control and adhere to the paper loss mantra and the other well-honed one "Its time IN the market not TIMING the market"

It depends what you class as a loss, I mean if you have a $1 Million portfolio, and is down 1% today ($10,000) thats no something I would be losing sleep over, thats just standard daily fluctuations. If you sold and locked in that loss or the $10,000 was in a stock that went to $0 permanently I guess some people might be upset, but if its just share price ups and downs, the long term holder shouldn't be fussed if their underlying assets are sound.

I mean if you owned a great piece of realestate, with a long lease would you really care if the price of the realestate went up or down by even 10% due there not being the right buyers around that week, if you weren't planning on selling probably not.

The liquidity of the share market and the minute by minute pricing changes causes some people to feel that they need to care about those daily movements, I believe this is often a mistake and they would feel the same about any other business they owned, but it sets them up for a life of over activity and often under performance and mediocre returns.

 

[Ann]

BlackRock is into cash, good enough for me!

BlackRock's Rieder: 'Holding Our Cash With Both Hands'​

 

[Captain_Chaza]

BlackRock is into cash, good enough for me!

BlackRock's Rieder: 'Holding Our Cash With Both Hands'​

CASH ? No Cash Here