Fundamental vs. Technical

[Captain_Chaza]

Re: Fundamental vs Technical

BTW

The Going rate for a Fundamental Analyst 4 years ago was $300,000 /Year
Do you honestly think anyone here has the necessary
Qualifications and Number of LETTERS after their name to answer that call?

The best you will get here or on any other forum is what I call
"Sweet FA"

If you expect anymore than that, I can promise !

"You will be very disappointed"


As always DYOR re the FA's and TA's
Fortunately, I only have to do my research on the TA's
I have thrown every Sweet and Sour FA'er overboard years ago

It makes life at sea a lot easier in the long term IMHO

Salute and Gods' Speed

 

[chance fate]

Re: Fundamental vs Technical

Captain,

you sound pretty bitter.... oh well .... chin up.... & hope you catch some good trade winds.... fare well....

 

[tech/a]

Re: Fundamental vs Technical

Is that book worth a read?

The first 50 pages in my view are a MUST for every trader to understand.
The rest of the book introduces the reader to one way Radge trades Elliot.

Gives a good insight to a methodology---an understanding of Elliot would be a great help but not necessary.

So YES.

 

[chance fate]

Re: Fundamental vs Technical

OK... nice one .. thanks tech/a... will take a look ..... checked out Elliot waves on wikipedia... first thought that springs to mind is... if everyone followed elliot waves then everything would be predictable and no one would make a profit... will switch threads to raise some questions....

 

[tech/a]

Re: Fundamental vs Technical

first thought that springs to mind is... if everyone followed elliot waves then everything would be predictable and no one would make a profit... will switch threads to raise some questions....

You could say exactly the same about Company Valuation from a Fundamental view.(Or undervaluation--or future valuation)

 

[rederob]

Re: Fundamental vs Technical

BTW

The Going rate for a Fundamental Analyst 4 years ago was $300,000 /Year
Do you honestly think anyone here has the necessary
Qualifications and Number of LETTERS after their name to answer that call?

The best you will get here or on any other forum is what I call
"Sweet FA"

If you expect anymore than that, I can promise !

"You will be very disappointed"


As always DYOR re the FA's and TA's
Fortunately, I only have to do my research on the TA's
I have thrown every Sweet and Sour FA'er overboard years ago

It makes life at sea a lot easier in the long term IMHO

Salute and Gods' Speed

Charlie
Why don't you give it up.
Just because you can't make FA do what you want it to do doesn't mean that others can't.
As a long term investor, I don't need to watch the markets, except for better entry prices in the main.
I don't see the need to get panicked by short term action, and it makes life a lot easier in the long term.

 

[rederob]

Re: Fundamental vs Technical

You could say exactly the same about Company Valuation from a Fundamental view.(Or undervaluation--or future valuation)

tech
It's usually safest to wait for ducati to give a valuation, and then do the opposite of what he suggests; contrarian trading at its simplest.

 

[Captain_Chaza]

As a Conscientious Student of History

I have learnt that "We Don't Learn from History"

I repeat

"Fundamental v Technical "

I wrote this article nearly a decade ago
I can't see that anything has changed since

“No man can serve two masters,” wrote Saint Matthew.

There are two basic approaches for deciding the future direction a sailing ship of any size and design might move.

The fundamentalist approach is faced with a massive information-gathering problem. Every fact relevant to the craft must be known and weighted according to its importance and its price equation. The skipper here assumes his own interpretations and his known facts are better than average.

He will analyze all the facets of world politics and its effects on the global economic community on a regular basis. He will study each member of the global exchange from currencies and interest rates to commodities and raw materials, to the latest developments in design technologies in the multitude areas of human activity.

He then turns his head to the economic statistics price/earning ratios, dividend yields, company reports on as many ships as he can mentally digest and consume as much written matter time allows. This is truly an awesome task for any skipper even those with a crew of skilled academics on each floor of a high-rise office building.

Unfortunately for the fundamentalist by the time he receives most of his information and statistics it is hopelessly out of date. By the time he evaluates and mixes up his recipe for a rational decision the moon has moved the tides. He often complains he is living in an irrational world and that the world has just gone temporally mad. Naturally, “She’ll be right in the long term,” he always says.

How often does a ship move in the opposite direction immediately after a good or bad report? Since information is never leaked in this fairest of all sports with its strong rules of fair disclosure, he will often claim an event has already been factored into the equation by the gamblers. How often does he cling to the skimpiest of fundamental good news as the price descends deeper and deeper south?

Because this has happened so often in the past it has even turned some fundamentalist heads inside out and they have developed a reverse fundamental approach.

This down-under, upside-down fundamentalist or contrarian viewpoint has surprising much to offer. Here the skipper has acknowledged the fact that punching the latest fundamentals into his computer will result in garbage.

He has accepted the fact that everything has been leaked and that it is not a fair game at all, but All-Out War.

Also, in view of his past experiences he has decided that he hasn’t been as close to the good information chain link as he would have liked and refuses to be fair game in the future.

The Technical believes that no fundamental fact whatsoever matters unless the masses have this shared psychology and provides the only mechanism to measure this irrational and emotional component.

Any experienced campaigner knows and the novice will soon discover how deeply the counter productive aspects of tension, anticipation and anxiety alter the way a skipper sails the seas. Usually directly proportional to the funds committed.


The technical believes the oceans are extremely efficient with its global sharing of information and regularly observes the actions of others, not their talk.

The technical can put objectivity at the helm and control the nemesis of all sailors at sea on the Global Exchange namely, emotion and rationale. They provide the mechanism to set entry and exit points, set risk/reward ratios and even foster a safety and risk management approach to sailing in all types of sea and weather conditions.

Technical allows the skipper to step back and gain a better insight and perspective of the Global Exchange and carry out numerous ship surveys. A chart is worth more than a thousand words.


The technical viewpoint encompasses every participant’s knowledge and beliefs about the future direction a craft may head next. It takes into account all the known facts as well as the human interpretation of those facts. More importantly it also takes into account fundamental news not yet known to the general public and is right up to date.



Finally, the fundamental academic with the I know all attitude who has ridiculed and under estimated his technical opponent for so many years, now believes he has room on board for some technical.


Unfortunately, as more and more skippers sail on technical, more ships are now moving accordingly, there is no room onboard for any fundamentalist with his long term excuse and his minuscule amount of up to date facts. He is in fact a most dangerous dinosaur to have onboard. He must be avoided at all costs and only regarded as fair game. Whether he is a bull or a bear he cannot change his spots and will always cloud a skipper’s judgment and coarse many costly delays.

Sailing in this modern era is All about the

Technical verses Technical.

"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.
"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate." Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893

• 31 March 2007

A Complete examination of our own holdings re "The Techninal Viewpoint verses The Noise of the Fundamentalist's have had each and everyone of our Portfolio's hit front on into this Perfect Storm at Sea
(This Captain Included)

It is amazing how we Just Don't Learn from History

The problem now is
"Who is coming in to Buy at The Bottom "
We are still Holding!
Our Children are Holding

I suppose it will be left up to our Grand-Children AGAIN!

Only the strictest of 'Technical " is cashed up for the Bottom IMHO

Is there anybody out there?



Probably All of us have been caught out bat Sea "AGIAIN!"

 

[tech/a]

Been out for over a month

The only position I have is the comp

People complicate trading. They believe
the more complex it is Fundamental or Technical
the better or more accurate it should be.

See it all the time and see failure
The way you handle the space between entry and exit
will determine your ability to trade profitably.

 

[divs4ever]

i don't want to be fully cashed up , but i have SOME cash reserves ( possibly a trickle of surplus div. cash ) and some possible M&A moves that will dump me with a handful of cash , but i am liable to be buying extras somewhere near the bottom

but one thing i learned in 2013 was i can't afford to wait in hope of the crash that still hasn't happened yet ( nine years and waiting .. tick tick tick )

i may as we lock in some ( better than ) average prices , get some growth ( better than a term deposit )

 

[Captain_Chaza]

Been out for over a month

The only position I have is the comp

People complicate trading. They believe
the more complex it is Fundamental or Technical
the better or more accurate it should be.

See it all the time and see failure
The way you handle the space between entry and exit
will determine your ability to trade profitably.

Did You tell anyone on this Forum so I can verity !

Your link or No Link will say it all

I wait with great anticipation

 

[eskys]

As a Conscientious Student of History

I have learnt that "We Don't Learn from History"

I repeat

"Fundamental v Technical "

I wrote this article nearly a decade ago
I can't see that anything has changed since

“No man can serve two masters,” wrote Saint Matthew.

There are two basic approaches for deciding the future direction a sailing ship of any size and design might move.

The fundamentalist approach is faced with a massive information-gathering problem. Every fact relevant to the craft must be known and weighted according to its importance and its price equation. The skipper here assumes his own interpretations and his known facts are better than average.

He will analyze all the facets of world politics and its effects on the global economic community on a regular basis. He will study each member of the global exchange from currencies and interest rates to commodities and raw materials, to the latest developments in design technologies in the multitude areas of human activity.

He then turns his head to the economic statistics price/earning ratios, dividend yields, company reports on as many ships as he can mentally digest and consume as much written matter time allows. This is truly an awesome task for any skipper even those with a crew of skilled academics on each floor of a high-rise office building.

Unfortunately for the fundamentalist by the time he receives most of his information and statistics it is hopelessly out of date. By the time he evaluates and mixes up his recipe for a rational decision the moon has moved the tides. He often complains he is living in an irrational world and that the world has just gone temporally mad. Naturally, “She’ll be right in the long term,” he always says.

How often does a ship move in the opposite direction immediately after a good or bad report? Since information is never leaked in this fairest of all sports with its strong rules of fair disclosure, he will often claim an event has already been factored into the equation by the gamblers. How often does he cling to the skimpiest of fundamental good news as the price descends deeper and deeper south?

Because this has happened so often in the past it has even turned some fundamentalist heads inside out and they have developed a reverse fundamental approach.

This down-under, upside-down fundamentalist or contrarian viewpoint has surprising much to offer. Here the skipper has acknowledged the fact that punching the latest fundamentals into his computer will result in garbage.

He has accepted the fact that everything has been leaked and that it is not a fair game at all, but All-Out War.

Also, in view of his past experiences he has decided that he hasn’t been as close to the good information chain link as he would have liked and refuses to be fair game in the future.

The Technical believes that no fundamental fact whatsoever matters unless the masses have this shared psychology and provides the only mechanism to measure this irrational and emotional component.

Any experienced campaigner knows and the novice will soon discover how deeply the counter productive aspects of tension, anticipation and anxiety alter the way a skipper sails the seas. Usually directly proportional to the funds committed.


The technical believes the oceans are extremely efficient with its global sharing of information and regularly observes the actions of others, not their talk.

The technical can put objectivity at the helm and control the nemesis of all sailors at sea on the Global Exchange namely, emotion and rationale. They provide the mechanism to set entry and exit points, set risk/reward ratios and even foster a safety and risk management approach to sailing in all types of sea and weather conditions.

Technical allows the skipper to step back and gain a better insight and perspective of the Global Exchange and carry out numerous ship surveys. A chart is worth more than a thousand words.


The technical viewpoint encompasses every participant’s knowledge and beliefs about the future direction a craft may head next. It takes into account all the known facts as well as the human interpretation of those facts. More importantly it also takes into account fundamental news not yet known to the general public and is right up to date.



Finally, the fundamental academic with the I know all attitude who has ridiculed and under estimated his technical opponent for so many years, now believes he has room on board for some technical.


Unfortunately, as more and more skippers sail on technical, more ships are now moving accordingly, there is no room onboard for any fundamentalist with his long term excuse and his minuscule amount of up to date facts. He is in fact a most dangerous dinosaur to have onboard. He must be avoided at all costs and only regarded as fair game. Whether he is a bull or a bear he cannot change his spots and will always cloud a skipper’s judgment and coarse many costly delays.

Sailing in this modern era is All about the

Technical verses Technical.

"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.
"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate." Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893

• 31 March 2007

View attachment 141544

A Complete examination of our own holdings re "The Techninal Viewpoint verses The Noise of the Fundamentalist's have had each and everyone of our Portfolio's hit front on into this Perfect Storm at Sea
(This Captain Included)

It is amazing how we Just Don't Learn from History

The problem now is
"Who is coming in to Buy at The Bottom "
We are still Holding!
Our Children are Holding

I suppose it will be left up to our Grand-Children AGAIN!

Only the strictest of 'Technical " is cashed up for the Bottom IMHO

Is there anybody out there?



Probably All of us have been caught out bat Sea "AGIAIN!"

Aye, aye, Captain. I'm here in the dark, paddling with an oar.......it's cold and scarey.......I need a safety raft, please.

 

[tech/a]

Sure
Tomorrow I’ll show the account balance of my portfolio from x date to x date
should do the trick it will show no movement during this capitulation.
too busy watching paint dry to do it now.

 

[Captain_Chaza]

i don't want to be fully cashed up , but i have SOME cash reserves ( possibly a trickle of surplus div. cash ) and some possible M&A moves that will dump me with a handful of cash , but i am liable to be buying extras somewhere near the bottom

but one thing i learned in 2013 was i can't afford to wait in hope of the crash that still hasn't happened yet ( nine years and waiting .. tick tick tick )

i may as we lock in some ( better than ) average prices , get some growth ( better than a term deposit )

By all means do what you feel is right for You and the family you have on board

One of the biggest mistakes I have made in these sort or situations at Sea is to throw the Babies out of the boat to support a sinking ship Just to get a cashed up for the bottom

I promise you
You will know the bottom when you see it

First of all you will see bodies floating to the surface
and
Then you'll hear the Fundamentalists screaming "RECESSION is now here"

Soon as you hear those Magical Screaming Sounds from the Fundamentalists

It is time to go back to sea with a Full Spread of Sail presented to the Wind

 

[divs4ever]

By all means do what you feel is right for You and the family you have on board

One of the biggest mistakes I have made in these sort or situations at Sea is to throw the Babies out of the boat to support a sinking ship Just to get a cashed up for the bottom

I promise you
You will know the bottom when you see it

First of all you will see bodies floating to the surface
and
Then you'll hear the Fundamentalists screaming "RECESSION is now here"

Soon as you hear those Magical Screaming Sounds from the Fundamentalists

It is time to go back to sea with a Full Spread of Sail presented to the Wind


View attachment 141552

well to my untrained eye , i already see recession , i see my favourite packet of biscuits shrinking , i see more and more shops staying shut ( although two were claiming 'work from home ' but are up for lease now ) just little things that suggest negative growth and declining productivity

i think the recession started something like a year ago , and i have a weather eye out for the DEPRESSION

and i think the market will be in a REALLY SCARY place when MQG is back at $20 , PME is back below 20 cents , CSR is $1.30 etc etc ( and all that happened in the last 11 years , we aren't talking ancient history )

however in the next crash i hope to spot different bargains

 

[eskys]

Maybe we should save our money, go away and live a life, come back and live another life another time

 

[divs4ever]

Maybe we should save our money, go away and live a life, come back and live another life another time

sadly no unless your cash is in rare coins , all that saving in fiat is doomed ( now gold and silver might be entirely different , maybe some well-stored wines as well )

 

[eskys]

I'll assess the situation tomorrow morning, divs. Premarket red at the moment, Europe and Asian markets down, looking rough, good luck anyway..........better to get a shut eye than going cross eyed looking at the screen, divs. Sleep well.

 

[tech/a]

Did You tell anyone on this Forum so I can verity !

Your link or No Link will say it all

I wait with great anticipation

View attachment 141551

As requested

You'll note that all of May up to yesterday when I bought a little is Flatlined I didn't have a position.
So avoided the carnage --- so I guess there was one on this forum who did!


Now where's that Paint Brush!

 

[eskys]

More importantly, there's wind in all our sails this morning..........