Fundamental vs. Technical

[wayneL]

Re: Fundamental vs Technical

Yes and others such as Ross B talks about on Reef who have the trading gene and are profitable from day one. I know and have met the trader he talks about well, her methods would be laughed off this site as they are so simple. Lot to be said for trading talent when discretionary.
Focus

I think I know of and have seen her methods secondhand. As a clue, is she ethnic?

A lot of good tech traders have embarrassingly simple methods. It really does come down to the cliches'.

However, I think a lot of success is in the setups people don't trade. Call it experience, gut feel, natural ability... there is something that lets folks discretionarilly reject certain trades they just "know" are gonna bomb.

FWIW

 

[IFocus]

Re: Fundamental vs Technical

I think I know of and have seen her methods secondhand. As a clue, is she ethnic?

Hi Wayne

The trader I refered to is Western Australian of Asian decent


Focus

 

[wayneL]

Re: Fundamental vs Technical

Ok, She's the one then.

Cheers

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Re: Fundamental vs Technical

To be honest, I don't have a view. As I trade US stocks and commod exchanges they're just not on my radar.

Ask me something about corn acreages or something.

Wayne,
What's the volatility and liquidity like?

 

[wayneL]

Re: Fundamental vs Technical

In corn only?

On Friday, 156,056 contracts traded in the next two expiries. Thats a face value of ~$3billion, open interest ~$14billion.

Volatility is roughly 30% (similar to BHP)

Margin is USD $1350 per contract which has a face value of ~USD $20,000

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Re: Fundamental vs Technical

In corn only?

On Friday, 156,056 contracts traded in the next two expiries. Thats a face value of ~$3billion, open interest ~$14billion.

Volatility is roughly 30% (similar to BHP)

Margin is USD $1350 per contract which has a face value of ~USD $20,000

Thanks for the info.
Cheers

 

[Captain_Chaza]

Re: Fundamental vs Technical

Ahoy Officer 2020

As I am new this Arena I think this maybe a better thread to respond to your request in the April Competition

All Seamanship calls are in essence judgement calls
After 2-3weeks Plain Sailing in some classes of sail I get the feeling those Greedy Landlubbers are proned to take profits and the seas then become choppy

As I only work from the Technical (and in this case I refer to the SHAGHAI Composite) I fear those great gamblers in China have been taking profits over the last 2 days
If this continues on Monday then it will become all to obvious to the Yanks and the DOW will fall Monday night( our time) in Wall St

All I can say is that I have cancelled my Golf game and I will be battening down the hatches before the Dawn in Shanghai

Salute and Take Care

PS It very rarely is Plain Sailing at any time ?

PPS Did you know that gambling in China is illegal and that the only outlet for Gambling is the Stockmarket?

PPS As Always DYOR

PPPS My apologies for the double read

Ahoy Brave and Loyal Sea-Cadet-Officer Coyotte
Thanks for your very warm welcome aboard

I hope you received my above Sea-Alert and battened down the hatches in time?

I have always found It is always best to Batten down the hatches and Run for Shelter when ever faced with any sign of Bad Sea and Weather Conditions

Ahoy Officer 2020

As you can see, Today is certainly not "Plain Sailing"

 

[coyotte]

Re: Fundamental vs Technical

Ahoy
Capt.

Read Dilerma and you'll see why!

He has a thread on this site -- also may pay to make a visit to his web-site.

See you're still braving the reefs around here -- just beware it doesn't turn into your wreath.


Salute:irate:

 

[Captain_Chaza]

Re: Fundamental vs Technical

Ahoy SCO Coyotte

Crikey!
The decks of the Great ship Nikkei are now being pooped

Salute and take care

 

[tech/a]

Re: Fundamental vs Technical

See you're still braving the reefs around here

Thats very clever!!

 

[Captain_Chaza]

Re: Fundamental vs Technical

So far, so good, Sea-Cadet- Officer Coyote

I hope nobody gets really Sea-Sick after reading this piece
Re : When the Up-to-Date Technical teams up with the Age Old Disciplines of Seamanship?

IE: "The Greatest Sport Of All"

No sport is more magnificent than deep water sailing on the Global Exchange in all types of weather. None requires more courage and such a sustained effort of both body and mind. Nor does any put on offer more splendid trophies and prize money.

The key to all weather handling of any sized yacht is careful preparation beforehand and the severest simplicity when the time for action arrives, and then to act instinctively without hesitation.

The safety of his craft and crew must always be the skippers first consideration. When sailing off-shore the chief difficulty lies in judging the correct moment when legitimate hard and exhilarating sailing becomes recklessness.

This judgement requires seamanship disciplines and courage of the highest degree that unfortunately is not given to everyone.

It is difficult to remember, safety at sea is Paramount.

The pleasure of a cruise whether it is a way of life upon the sea or a convenient way of visiting interesting places can be almost unlimited; yet equally the discomforts can be quite horrifying. The difference between these two extremes depends on seamanship, the art of living upon the sea.

Seamanship, with its very widely differing interpretations of set information, facts, weather, wind and sea, is the nemesis of all skippers who set out sailing the Global Exchange.

Perfection in this art depends not only upon the setting-out preparations but more importantly to the extent of holding a firm course and the skipper’s navigational skills, the art of getting from one place to another.

It is a skippers folly to ignore the experience of others and even forget his own past experiences.

He must set in place a plan of action designed to avoid being locked into a bad and dangerous gale finding himself and his crew too far off-shore and the safety of land. Not only ruining the pleasure of the cruise for all, but more importantly missing out on the many other pleasurable opportunities that exist elsewhere on Global Exchange.

In this highest of high-tech arenas, with all the yacht clubs now communicating with each other in real time, it must be remembered that for every bullish skipper heading north, there is one bearish skipper setting out a southerly coarse.

Who is the one with the better seamanship skills?

While a sailing ship of any size and design may have great fundamentals, it just doesn't make sense to set sail on her if she is caught up in a storm and is in angry seas, until there is some evidence of improving conditions.

Similarly, it doesn’t make sense to jump off a perfectly sea-going vessel because of some old sailors tale of a successful percentage gain he found worked ages ago.

Believe me old sailors only talk about their victories and leave their failed attempts in the bottom draw for their children and grandchildren to read.

"Sailing on Instrumentation"

Technology has won in almost every arena of human endeavour. Man has walked on the moon. He can navigate the globe with satellite navigation. He can land a plane in thick fog in the middle of cities and at night in drenching rain solely on instrumentation.

We put our lives on instrumentation everyday of the week. In business we install the latest in machinery and technology to get an edge on any fierce competitor.

Yet when we take a chance on the the greatest sport of all where more money is won and lost every week than the combined total of all the games of chance we put our money on blind faith, wishful thinking and even believe everyone's a winner.

Most skippers spend their time looking for the easy way (which as we all know is not an easy search) instead of learning the key to sailing any ship on Global Exchange--supply and demand. That is, the endless duel between the bullish and the bearish skippers.

No one can consistently and accurately determine future prices on anything. For example, how much can you sell your own house for at auction this time next year (short term), in three years time (medium term) or in ten years time (long term)?

Master the basics of seamanship “in the mind” and then learn to trust the navigational instrumentation you select to have on board, you will be able to navigate instinctively without hesitation, gain ground on any fierce competitor and enjoy the thrill of winning many more trophies.

Discover the 4 Basic Sail Drills and learn to

#1 Wait Patienly!

#2 Hoist a sail without hesitation!

#3 Hold on tightly!

#4 Lower a sail and run for Shelter

It's as easy as that if you learn to "Sail the Circle"
IE: Make a plan of action for all winds

Some make a plan and assume that most Winds blow from the West
We all know this just does not happen

We must therefore set a plan of action to suit all winds
(from each and every direction)

"The Wind Calls the Tune"

Salute and Gods Speed

 

[chance fate]

Re: Fundamental vs Technical

The captain found an article that agrees with his view of life... (that proves it then!).... it's clear that the captain can only sail a ship.... and has to be told where to sail to....and if left alone would just sail round in circles.... better to be able to sail a ship and have the intention to sail somewhere... life's a bit boring otherwise..... the only concession (to hold the analogy to the market) some parts of mother nature can't be managed.... don't think the captain will be able to agree with this - probably an ego thing....

 

[motorway]

Re: Fundamental vs Technical

Maybe the Captain

Is happy to sail where ever He gets paid the most to do so.

On occasion this might even mean sailing in circles..

I think the Captain is operating a business

No doubt When He wants to sail somewhere in particular
For His own pleasure.. He will be the one Paying the $$$ to another captain.

I think the captain does not argue with His pay master.
he just sums up the potential Rewards and Risks
And at His discretion agrees or not to make the voyage

If the best relative option is staying safely in port.
The captain is happy to sail nowhere at all.

he gets offers everyday to set sail
But without His agreement
Nothing is ventured ..

motorway

 

[chance fate]

Re: Fundamental vs Technical

Maybe the Captain

Is happy to sail where ever He gets paid the most to do so.

On occasion this might even mean sailing in circles..

I think the Captain is operating a business

No doubt When He wants to sail somewhere in particular
For His own pleasure.. He will be the one Paying the $$$ to another captain.

I think the captain does not argue with His pay master.
he just sums up the potential Rewards and Risks
And at His discretion agrees or not to make the voyage

If the best relative option is staying safely in port.
The captain is happy to sail nowhere at all.

he gets offers everyday to set sail
But without His agreement
Nothing is ventured ..

motorway

I agree the captain should weigh up risk and reward.... which is the province of fundamental analysis and evaluation.... the captain comes across as a technical analyst... I reckon it's better to use both approaches whenever appropriate.... to argue one approach against the other is irritating...

 

[Temjin]

Re: Fundamental vs Technical

Can't be bothered to read all this babblings about ship and sailing stuff. hahah

Put it this way, I agree that it doesn't matter if it's fundamental vs technical and that it is how you applied it.

In theory, I could easily follow a stock recommendation newsletter and "trade" on the basis of the authors' pure fundamental analysis. As long as I have my own "investment" plan which include entry and exit stratgies and incorporate position sizing and money management techniques into it, I can still profit from it as long as the newsletter is giving me an edge.

I'm buying via fundamental analysis recommendations, and not based on price actions using indicators and patterns.

Of course, how good the "system" is in comparsion to pure technical analysis is subject to debate and how much effort one could put in to operate that system.

 

[chance fate]

Re: Fundamental vs Technical

Can't be bothered to read all this babblings about ship and sailing stuff. hahah

Put it this way, I agree that it doesn't matter if it's fundamental vs technical and that it is how you applied it.

In theory, I could easily follow a stock recommendation newsletter and "trade" on the basis of the authors' pure fundamental analysis. As long as I have my own "investment" plan which include entry and exit stratgies and incorporate position sizing and money management techniques into it, I can still profit from it as long as the newsletter is giving me an edge.

I'm buying via fundamental analysis recommendations, and not based on price actions using indicators and patterns.

Of course, how good the "system" is in comparsion to pure technical analysis is subject to debate and how much effort one could put in to operate that system.

Yeah .... been reading the Adaptive Analysis thread... seems someone has written a book on their system of when to do what... (haven't got a copy myself).... reckon the way to go is to debate the pros and cons of what you describe above... use fundamentals to decide what to buy and then use tech analysis for entries and exits...

On the selection of stocks I first get comfortable with the supply demand equation in a commodity/industry sector.. e.g. Chinese demand for raw materials is expected to continue for some years (refer to recent RBA report on commodities)... then narrow down on company's that are lined up to benefit from that type of situation.... e.g. Paladin seems positioned well to benefit from Uranium price strength.... and then upon selecting the stock use tech analysis to gauge the flow and ebb of fear and greed in the trading cycle and decide when to buy and sell, mixed with continued monitoring of company and regulatory activity... then keep reviewing the whole lot to learn what works and doesn't....

 

[tech/a]

Re: Fundamental vs Technical

Yeah .... been reading the Adaptive Analysis thread... seems someone has written a book on their system of when to do what... (haven't got a copy myself)....

Practice/Factual

reckon the way to go is to debate the pros and cons of what you describe above... use fundamentals to decide what to buy and then use tech analysis for entries and exits...

On the selection of stocks I first get comfortable with the supply demand equation in a commodity/industry sector.. e.g. Chinese demand for raw materials is expected to continue for some years (refer to recent RBA report on commodities)... then narrow down on company's that are lined up to benefit from that type of situation.... e.g. Paladin seems positioned well to benefit from Uranium price strength.... and then upon selecting the stock use tech analysis to gauge the flow and ebb of fear and greed in the trading cycle and decide when to buy and sell, mixed with continued monitoring of company and regulatory activity... then keep reviewing the whole lot to learn what works and doesn't....

Theory/hypothesis.

 

[chance fate]

Re: Fundamental vs Technical

Practice/Factual

Theory/hypothesis.

Just outlining a process here..... there's lots of ways to do the inidividual bits of analysis, e.g. porter's 5 forces to put a lable on what you could do, to do the industry analysis....

Is that book worth a read?

I'll have a flick through at the book store to see if it really could make a difference...

Reckon the amount of analysis that people do is related to their own risk aversion... for me i do fundamental work to get comfy that if the market dives on a day e.g. the recent shanghai fall, it'll bounce back because the underlying drivers haven't changed i.e. china is a state run economy with rapid development directives and cheap labour and the stock market is half the size of australia's....

 

[Captain_Chaza]

Re: Fundamental vs Technical

"Seamanship "

Perfection in this discipline depends not only upon the setting-out preparations but to an equal extent to his navigational skills.

It is a little uncanny to notice that through history most of the participants in the greatest ocean regatta of them all, the America’s Cup, is filled with corporate magnates of the Global Exchange.

Did they learn their successful seamanship disciplines and navigation skills on land and then go to sea, or did they learn them at sea and then go on the land? Whichever voyage of discovery came first I am sure they always set out with the latest in technology and the finest equipment available to them at the time.

You don't need to be a Rhodes scholar to fathom out the truth about Sweet FA
All Fundamental Data is delayed Data (Sometimes even in a 10 week delay)
This is an extremely un-exceptable business practice IMHO when you can see how fast some people can type nowadays

This has always been a bitter dissapointment to this Captain

Once again, the facts and fundamentals are not nearly as important a skipper’s interpretations of the seas, ocean currents wind and weather conditions. The difference in interpretations by many a skipper lies in the fact that each skipper hears and sees with his own built in perceptions and never, never learns by his past experiences.

It seems he has all the excuses in the book and his source of free information and long-range sea and weather forecasters tips are priceless. Everyone wins in the long term. How often does he come back years later with new funds and add a PAS, HIH, CRO ONE to his CTR BOR PDP BPC MIM

Searching through the many voyages of ships sailing the Global Exchange captured at any one moment in time shows truly amazing variety of conditions and situations.

Some booming through on the crest of waves, some crashing in troughs, others beset by a calm drifting sideways and some with little food and fresh water on board waiting for friendly pirates who do take prisoners.

Numerous voyages have had magnificent starts and have then come to grief, a few perhaps with loss of life; certainly many with a great loss of dignity and investment. Almost all could have been avoided with the employment of a common sense respect for the sea and the navigator’s discipline of maintaining and recording regular sightings.

No other than the Technical can attempt this

Sea training requires some effort but becomes trivial compared to the excitement of competition and the pride of achievement. Even in the case of the novice cadet, for those who participate in virtual reality ocean trials, either as a sole yachtsman or as a member of a hand selected crew, their sailing experiences from anywhere on the Global Exchange may never be the same again.

Courage unfortunately is given to all!

Some will gain invaluable expertise, be more informed and experience many more enjoyable voyages in the future.

Some will develop new individual cruise strategies as they trash old sailors' habits and blind custom Fundamental beliefs.

After some practice and experience in real time some may even venture on smaller ships and test their skills to the fullest against those Magnificent 20/50/100/200 tall ships

A skipper must set in place a plan of action designed to avoid being locked into a bad and dangerous gale and finding himself and his crew too far off-shore and the safety of land. Not only ruining the pleasure of the present cruise for all, but also missing out on the many other pleasurable opportunities that may exist elsewhere on the great exchange.

Seamanship, with its very widely differing interpretations of set information, facts, weather and ocean charts is the nemesis of all skippers who set out sailing offshore..

In this highest of high-tech arenas with all the exchanges now communicating with each other in real time, it must be remembered that for every bullish sailor heading north, there is one bearish sailor setting out a southerly coarse.

Who is the one with the better seamanship skills? Who is the one with the better fittings and equipment on board?

Who is the one to be overwhelmed with emotion? Who is the one blindly in love with his craft?

Who is the one so much in love with sailing that he must always be at sea.

Who is the one steaming with hatred and memories of a very unpleasant voyage clouding his next judgment?

Who is the one who cannot admit to himself and his crew that the seas and weather conditions have suddenly changed?

Who is the one to hesitate for fear of incurring a small loss of dignity and a few meters.

Who is the one too proud and unable to give the order “Run for shelter!”

The difference in interpretations lies in the fact that each skipper hears and sees with his own built in perceptions and even at times with his wishful thinking.

Again, the facts and fundamentals are not nearly as important as his interpretations of the current seas, ocean and weather conditions.

Also it seems that the more time, effort and money spent on a cruise, the more difficult it becomes for a positive thinking skipper to give the order, “Run for Shelter!” and conversely, for a negative thinking skipper to give the order, ”Set Sail!”

A man often claims that he cruises for pleasure and long-term gains and cannot see the point of preparing for unpleasant events that might never happen. Some have no such feelings but just never get around to trying their rough weather gear until the need is urgent, life threatening and then panic or freeze up and do nothing.

"She'll be right in The Long Tern" say the Brokers to the Fundamentalists
They have said it so often in the past it has become a cult /a religion and unfortunately "a bad habit"

The very thought of boarding another ship in the open sea or a man overboard sends a shiver down the backs of many well travelled yachtsmen especially if they have never experienced these drills under really difficult conditions.

At sea on the Global Exchange during a gale, a man is in a similar predicament to a boxer whose defences are not too sound. He is hammered about with conflicting opinions and newspaper reports until he has the reasoning powers of a small child and the drive of a tired old man hoping for the best. An angry sea refuses to be leisurely.

She is always deadly serious and it is a poor time for untried gear and new practice drills.

I use the word “man” to denote the species of “mankind,” whose female frequently has the same desire to go sailing and undoubtedly also has equal, if not better ability in this magnificent spectator and participant sport.

Before deciding on any cruise he would be well advised to closely study the effects of the weather and ocean currents on craft they have sailed before or wish to sail in the near future. Only then can he have a close and personal understanding of her and gain a better insight into her temperament, performance, character and integrity.

Once again This can only be attempted using Technical

Every craft will behave in her own way under the same wind, sea and weather conditions and it will be quite different from that of any other vessel.

The fine balance between safety and adventure can only be learnt with experience and lots of practice and ocean trials.

Sailing by night and by day he must sail alone with his crew relying only on each others skills, the craft’s, fittings, equipment, current ocean charts and reliable tried and tested navigational instruments.


Salute and Gods' speed

 

[chance fate]

Re: Fundamental vs Technical

"Seamanship "


You don't need to be a Rhodes scholar to fathom out the truth about Sweet FA
All Fundamental Data is delayed Data (Sometimes even in a 10 week delay)
This is an extremely un-exceptable business practice IMHO when you can see how fast some people can type nowadays

This has always been a bitter dissapointment to this Captain


Salute and Gods' speed

Captain,

I disagree with this statement (perhaps we are working with conflicting understanding of what Fundamental Analysis means)... e.g. it is widely known that china is a state run economy... therefore global markets react by selling off due a trigger like the shanghai fall it's a perfect buying opportunity for the fundamentalist.... i bought into Paladin at between $7.50 and $8 ...thanks .... that's historical... now as a current example... looking forward and NOT REACTING TO OUT OF DATE DATA as you state.... it is ALREADY widely believed that OPEC is content to have oil sit between $50 and $60 US/bbl... if tensions ease in the middle east for a few weeks for whatever reason traders will move the oil price lower... say it dropped to US$40/bbl.... would you be prepared to jump into an oil stock like woodside which tracks oil closely? I would be prepared to take that chance..... but i'd wait for the technical signals on the stock to indicate that it's fully sold down too...

I don't need to be a Rhodes Scolar to figure that out.... what is the truth about FA?