FMG - Fortescue Ltd

[nomore4s]

I don't think this statement really holds true.
If there are a fix number of sellers say 10 then for those number of sells there can be relatively infinite number of buyers.

For Example
10 Sellers total 1,000,000 Shares
1 Buyer total 1,000,000 Shares
10 Buyers each 100,000 Shares
100 Buyers each 10,000 Shares
1000 Buyers each 1,000 Shares

but you are correct they are both only potential buyers and potential sellers.

What does it matter how many buyers there are?
All that matters is how many shares are traded and at what price.

 

[enigmatic]

Well that is debatable. Only having 1 buy with a large packet doesnt correspond to a large demand.
You increase your chances of effecting the mind of an individual within a crowd then an individual who has no one to compare with.

But then thats more to do with the mind of the masses, people want something more if someone else is demanding it too.

You are also speaking about after the trade I believe we are speaking about before the trade.

 

[shaunQ]

Well that is debatable. Only having 1 buy with a large packet doesnt correspond to a large demand.
You increase your chances of effecting the mind of an individual within a crowd then an individual who has no one to compare with.

But then thats more to do with the mind of the masses, people want something more if someone else is demanding it too.

You are also speaking about after the trade I believe we are speaking about before the trade.

I'm no expert, but I think the point is that just because the offer is in the market, doesn't necessarily mean the trade will (or has any intention to) take place. And in the above case, it would be simple to instead of buying 1,000,000 shares, put in 100 lots 10,000 and make the "demand" sky rocket, or vica-versa depending on what you are going to think that implies.

 

[jackson8]

I'm no expert, but I think the point is that just because the offer is in the market, doesn't necessarily mean the trade will (or has any intention to) take place. And in the above case, it would be simple to instead of buying 1,000,000 shares, put in 100 lots 10,000 and make the "demand" sky rocket, or vica-versa depending on what you are going to think that implies.

in my experience the market depht on both sides seem to be their purely to prop up or create an actual value for the sp
watching market depth throughout the day . when sp starts to drop then participants on the buy side start lowering there buy price therefore the sell side lower their offer almost like a host of conditional orders at play which are always changeing to suit the ebb and flow of the actual transactions that are actually taking place (i call them ambulance chasers)

take for instance lgl , over the past few weeks there is an average of 3-4 mil shares on offer both sides on any one day yet the turnover for today was 12 mil other days up to 40mil turnover yet the totals at end of day, start of day and throughout the day remains in the 3-4 mil depth range

i can only assume then that most of the transactions are from outside those who are listed in the depht and are at market purchasers

comments welcome

 

[enigmatic]

I was well aware of the point it however was not the initial point.

How can it only be import what side is hitting the market when apparently the number of sellers equals the number of buyers, wouldnt that mean that both sides are hitting the market equally.

LOL

What is sitting in the order book is rubbish. What is important is which side is hitting the market. That's what moves stocks. Not Spoofs.

I aswell would never classify myself as an expert or even a half decent trader as of yet however I am only asking these questions and stating the facts as i see them to better myself.

 

[shaunQ]

I was well aware of the point it however was not the initial point.

How can it only be import what side is hitting the market when apparently the number of sellers equals the number of buyers, wouldnt that mean that both sides are hitting the market equally.

I aswell would never classify myself as an expert or even a half decent trader as of yet however I am only asking these questions and stating the facts as i see them to better myself.

Nor here, but to continue until someone smarter comes along, they are equal because a share is traded 1:1. You sell, I buy. If no one buys - you do not sell. In the end, all trades are equal with the same number of shares bought as sold.

Edit - may I also possibly suggest this thread is for FMG related stuff, and people may start yelling if we continue to clog this fairly popular thread up. Suggest you go into the Beginners Lounge - lots of interesting stuff.

 

[enigmatic]

Was looking at the one of the lastest releases on ASX for FMG

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090205/pdf/31fxj2m4k2c2nh.pdf

which i noticed that they are aiming for only 39mtpa rather then the 45mtpa which would be expected from the max capacity of the plant.

I believe this is a good sign that they are willing to admit that the peak performance of the mine will not happen over night, however 39mtpa is pretty good even that current prices.
30.7 mtpa shipped at $100 US minus operation cost of arround $40US
getting reasonably close to $2Billion US.

 

[Miner]

Interesting note published in FN Arena and do not know if ASIC takes action against FMG or FMG takes action against FN Arena for making some suggestion without any proof. Any way here u go as reported by FN Arena www.fnarena.com .

" FMG - Investor sentiment towards producers of bulk commodities has improved considerably over the past weeks. Many an expert remains convinced this optimism will prove too early, but investors appear willing to take their chances. Meanwhile, strange things are happening. On Wednesday and Thursday last week the Australian Financial Review carried an advertisement: "WANTED, Iron Ore - Overseas iron and steel manufacturers want a large quantity of high quality iron ore produced in Western Australia". Odd. Since when do these manufacturers have to sollicit via ads in an Australian newspaper? The story becomes even more suspicious when the email address provided wendy.wu@ansongroup.com.au bounces back as an "address unknown". The webaddress doesn't bring up a kosher website either.
Maybe ASIC should consider a possible attempt to market manipulation?"

 

[Harro7]

That's a very interesting one. I was sucked in by that false pull for iron ore demand. I still think FMG has good long term prospects so I'm going to hold.

 

[M34N]

Just took a quick look at the intra-day chart for FMG, nice bounce up this morning after 2 days down, regained all those losses. Sell off in the middle of the day was kind of expected I guess but still a bit of buying in late in the day. Volume to price action looks bullish to me, plenty of transactions again today at 28m. Interesting trading range highlighted below, still looks good and see no reason to sell yet.

Has held up pretty well with the Dow down some 400 points in the past few days and FMG holding flat, but I guess you can thank Rio for the support today. EMA and MACD also looking positive. Not willing to call it just yet, but looking at the EMA it could see a big break up, anyone else willing to provide any analysis on this?

 

[nomore4s]

Just took a quick look at the intra-day chart for FMG, nice bounce up this morning after 2 days down, regained all those losses. Sell off in the middle of the day was kind of expected I guess but still a bit of buying in late in the day. Volume to price action looks bullish to me, plenty of transactions again today at 28m. Interesting trading range highlighted below, still looks good and see no reason to sell yet.

Has held up pretty well with the Dow down some 400 points in the past few days and FMG holding flat, but I guess you can thank Rio for the support today. EMA and MACD also looking positive. Not willing to call it just yet, but looking at the EMA it could see a big break up, anyone else willing to provide any analysis on this?

Todays high volume and weakish close is a worry, needs to break resistance and close above $2.70 in the next few days or else I think we could se $2.00-$2.15 again, a close under $2.00 would be bearish imo, if we do see a pullback and $2.00 holds I will probably be looking for a trade.
A close above $3.00 in the next few weeks and we could see as high as $5.00 sometime in the next quarter but that would require a strong rally by the market in general imo.

Where FMG closes this week might give a few clues.

 

[Harro7]

Looking very strong around the 2.75 mark right now. Three dollars not out of reach?

Not sure about the $5...

 

[vincent191]

Go baby go !!!!!!

I am not greedy.....$3.50 in the next few weeks will do me very nicely, Thank You.

 

[nomore4s]

Looking very strong around the 2.75 mark right now. Three dollars not out of reach?

Not sure about the $5...

lol Harro, as I said it would probably require a strong rally by the market in general to get that high and take 3-6 months. A close above $3.00 would be bullish as it looks to have built a solid base since about Oct.

 

[M34N]

Looking very strong around the 2.75 mark right now. Three dollars not out of reach?

Not sure about the $5...

$3.00 fits into my trading range that I posted a page or two back, so I'd be expecting some consolidation around there, if not sooner. The run up in the past 2 weeks now is something around +50%, maybe even more IIRC. But again, today's price action has been similar to that of late; open up flat and head progressively up during the day.

So no signs of the rise stopping right now; I think today's closing price may set the tone for next week and looks like there will be a fair bit less volume today compared with other days (but still amongst the top of the ASX today). A close above the $2.70-2.75 resistance signals to me a jump to $3.00 may well be possible next week, again so long as there is no deterioration in the market. But that looks like being the toughest line of resistance, similar to what $2.00 was last week, and given the rise over the past week it would be fair to say a retracement in the share price would be expected.

 

[vincent191]

Hehehehe.....closed at $2.81. Hope the Yanks don't spoil the party tomorrow. I haven't had a winner for a while and my account is looking grim.

Cheers everybody and haveagoodweekend.

 

[Harro7]

lol Harro, as I said it would probably require a strong rally by the market in general to get that high and take 3-6 months. A close above $3.00 would be bullish as it looks to have built a solid base since about Oct.

Sorry nomore4s. I'm very new to the game, as you can probably tell, and was just looking to get the conversation started/get some more information.

The DJI is looking very shaky to me I hope the mid/late day rallies continue to get FMG to circa $3.

 

[M34N]

OK, now that I have had some time to look at the charts properly, it looks to me like the EMA(25) has broken up above the EMA(50), which did not happen the last 3 times in early Dec, mid Dec and early Jan; when FMG attempted to make a break higher on these occasions, and subsequently failed. The MACD also looks to be signaling a move higher, again the signs are similar to that in May last year.

The last time these events both occurred, FMG broke up higher and proceeded record highs back in May to July. So within the next 3 months this suggests, like nomore4s has said, a significant break higher is possible. I can't put a figure on it myself, but it follows the trend line I've managed to spot on the 1-year chart, it looks like it could top the $4.00 range. But to do this it needs to solidly smash through the $3.00 barrier, which has been support, and then resistance, since October last year.

Everything is there to support this move up, including the volume and today's closing price action again confirmed a bullish bias, closing on the day highs. Volume again showing up among the top of the ASX, so it's looking like a lot of the sellers have move on away and every attempt to sell down has been met by more buyers willing to push the price up at every dip.

One final note on today's action though, it formed a nice narrowing trend upwards to the end of close, and every push higher was with increasing volume, unlike previous rallies. And the $2.75 barrier was firmly broken and it quickly became support after being breached.

That's enough for now, I'm sure you've all had enough of my ramblings :

EDIT: uploaded old 1 year chart, EMA is shown braking up higher better there

 

[Poppypop]

So what price did you buy the 38,000 at Poppy?

The first buy was 12,000 at around 2.10 wasn't it? = $25,200

The lowest the stock has gone since then is 1.65 I think, so lets assume you bought in then. = $62,700

50,000 shares cost $87,900 = $1.75.

Ah, I see, a typo. You meant to say $1.75 average.

Nice work!

Yes, and I bought another 40,000 @ 167 with a stop @ 149 before going overseas. I have just got back from Thailand and wow, my prediction is correct! I have made in excess of $100,000 in less than a month. I will sell my FMG shares on Mondays open and go out and buy a new car to celebrate my accurate prediction

 

[sammy84]

Thanks for the last post M34N. FMG's charts are on my watchlist aswell. Not many EMA's have been trending positively in recent times. A break above $3 should be very interesting.