FMG - Fortescue Ltd

[nunthewiser]

FMG.... closed position . it is the weekend after all and the bishop a bit concerned that the yanks may have a rally "for old times sake" OR they may fall like a rock tonight . either way he is unsure of the powers that be and figured a quid in the pocket beats crying over spilt milk anyday

 

[CoffeeKing]

From the Busi spectator

Fortescue to raise $500m: report

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Fortescue-to-raise-500m-report-$pd20090223-PHRKC?OpenDocument

will not paste link

 

[vincent191]

Fortescue has requested a trading halt until Wednesday 25Feb. There is a lot speculation of how much and who and how.

So I will have to sweat it out and hope for the best. In my opinion, I was hoping for a much bigger capital raising (say 2 to 3 billion) to fund Fortescue's expansion into a "big" miner in "nearly" the same league as BHP, Rio & Vale.

I have read many comments that you really need to reach an output >70 mtpa to have any significance in the world market and to have any influence in the price setting mechanism.

PS ...I own shares in Fortescue and the above is strictly my opinion only.

 

[Timestar]

I too am an interested party in FMG and am very concerned what this will do to the share price when Wednesday arrives. I'm guessing that if they're after $500m then it will trade at around $240-2.45.

My estimate only but I'm not thrilled about them having to go to the marketplace for more cash!!

 

[maungatapu]

From the Busi spectator

Fortescue to raise $500m: report

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Fortescue-to-raise-500m-report-$pd20090223-PHRKC?OpenDocument

will not paste link

The article said that Cameron Morse would not confirm or deny Fortescue would raise a minimum of $500m. That is just speculation at the moment. Whatever they do it will either dilute share holdings or put it deeper in debt.

 

[vincent191]

Capital raising does NOT always mean a drop in the SP. It depends on why they need to raise new capital and how it is going to be used.

Twiggy has already said Fortescue will use the new capital to expand the business and not for working capital like repayment of debt.

If this is true IMO the share price will not fall it may even go up because the Company is expanding it's productivity and output and hopefully, all else being equal, produce more profit.

 

[gfresh]

Appears FMG bid to raise another $500M funds from Institutionals has failed, as they didn't think $2.48 was fair value, and obviously Forrest didn't want to undercut the Chinese.

http://business.theage.com.au/business/fortescue-scraps-share-offering-20090224-8gva.html

So where do we think FMG will open tomorrow?

 

[Miner]

Appears FMG bid to raise another $500M funds from Institutionals has failed, as they didn't think $2.48 was fair value, and obviously Forrest didn't want to undercut the Chinese.

http://business.theage.com.au/business/fortescue-scraps-share-offering-20090224-8gva.html

So where do we think FMG will open tomorrow?

Have you seen Charlie Aitken the magic man from Southern Equity who predicted $50 and more for FMG share before split has been into action.

Probably he will write again why he thinks financial inst should buy FMG and then rest of us will get sucked into buying it. This will lead (?) financial analysts in turn to escalate their price for FMG

My wishes however because I am looking for my dream to come true and sell off FMG then (just honestly declaring my interest without coming from the back door) . But wishes are made in heaven and they are supposedly not to be fulfilled.

 

[Warren Buffet II]

No instos wanted to buy FMG, I am sure there is a big reason to do so.
My opinion is that they believe FMG is junk and will run into big problems, so they do not want to get into a sinking boat (finally they are doing something smart).

WBII

 

[vincent191]

Warren, just because the Institution did not buy in does not mean FMG is a sinking boat. The Institutions just want too big a discount.

IMO I don't think the SP of FMG will ever reach it's former glory for a long long time to come but I do think it will improve when the world economy improves.

That is the way I see it and that is why I hold FMG shares. I still have faith in Twiggy. Not as much as before but still a bit of faith left.

 

[SenTineL]

WBII's opinon is becoming monotonous, it's like he wants FMG to collapse just he can say "I told you so".

He just believes and it's his opinion other believe it's junk.

very quiet in here following a big announcement though.

 

[MichaelD]

So has anything changed here?

I see again that a few lucky true believers got in early and convinced many more punters to hop on board...right at the top.

 

[nunthewiser]

So has anything changed here?

I see again that a few lucky true believers got in early and convinced many more punters to hop on board...right at the top.

LOL and some even luckier punters got on nr the top and shorted the bejesus outta it ................

blessem

 

[nizar]

Does anybody here know when FMG was added to the ASX100?

I had a look at ASX announcements last 6 months, it wasn't there, so must've been before this....

Thanks.

 

[Harro7]

Since the suspension there has been a massive retreatment back to old territory.

Seemed to find support at the 2.50 for a couple of days but since yesterday's poor close it has since crashed through to old lows.

Is there any potential to buy at the low $2 mark and see it rebound again? What's the story here?

 

[M34N]

Will hopefully have the time to post something more informative later tonight, but just briefly I sold the rest of my position on this one at $2.88 after coming out of the trading halt, so looking at the least at a retracement/test of the $2.20 level, then $2.00. If these hold it's a buy signal to me (major support is $2.00 so that is critical), but if they both break... expect $1.80 and below, even up to $1.60. Volume has been lacking of lately so it's going to be a slower trip down this time around as opposed to the pace it went up. It seems to mostly follow the 20c ranges so there's plenty of $$ to be made in trading the ranges so always ready to do some quick trading.

It has also lost a lot of momentum of late (hence the lack of volume) and is less speculative, so the price movements should be less rapid either up or down.

 

[vincent191]

I was too greedy. I did not get out in time at the high $2 mark. I was hoping it had further to go.

No use looking backwards, I hope it will rebound soon only this time I wont be so greedy.

 

[M34N]

Will hopefully have the time to post something more informative later tonight, but just briefly I sold the rest of my position on this one at $2.88 after coming out of the trading halt, so looking at the least at a retracement/test of the $2.20 level, then $2.00. If these hold it's a buy signal to me (major support is $2.00 so that is critical), but if they both break... expect $1.80 and below, even up to $1.60. Volume has been lacking of lately so it's going to be a slower trip down this time around as opposed to the pace it went up. It seems to mostly follow the 20c ranges so there's plenty of $$ to be made in trading the ranges so always ready to do some quick trading.

It has also lost a lot of momentum of late (hence the lack of volume) and is less speculative, so the price movements should be less rapid either up or down.

Well, the time has come for me to re-visit FMG and looks like it's coming back into my trading range. Broke below $2.20 on Friday, but as I said the trip down would be slow and on low volume, so it's no surprise.

It's looking very interesting here, and I suspect a big move is on the cards again, it looks like it's hitting a critical juncture here and I would not be surprised to see it go either way. What's most important IMO is that it is just sitting below the downtrend line that it has struggled with since July '08, and I would expect a rally here will be short-lived, maximum I see it going is up to around $4 if it does head higher (so it's a very nice rally), otherwise if it heads down, which I am more likely to be inclined to believe as this downtrend I see being difficult to break out of, then we could see new 52-week lows.

Anyone else want to place bets? Maybe a rally then a big fall back down? EMA showing critical juncture also, and volume slowly increasing on the down days...

 

[SenTineL]

Very interesting M34n, it certainly has been pretty flat trading in the last few weeks. I suppose it shows on the forum also.

Hasn't been this quiet in this thread for a long time.

 

[Warren Buffet II]

I see being difficult to break out of, then we could see new 52-week lows.

Hi M34N,

Does the comment "we could see new 52-week lows. " means:

1) those are my 2 cents
2) or a new 52-week lows of 2 cents ? I predicted 20c but 2 cents, that is low

Expecting a fury of FMG twwigies saying that the company should be trading @ 20 dollars.

WBII