Ahh, nothing like a bit of hindsight trading.
Isn't it amazing how you managed to pick very close to the high...
Was not worth the risk, FMG was past my minimum selling target, and there was a better stock to be bought (IPL). Today proved me right.
FMG - Fortescue Ltd
- Thread starter GreatPig
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Was not worth the risk, FMG was past my minimum selling target, and there was a better stock to be bought (IPL). Today proved me right.
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Let me just step in here for a moment and make a few points.
This thread has been one of the most troublesome on ASF for some time now and has been close to being temporarily shut down on more than one occasion.
For those posting in this thread I would just like to remind you of what is required:
1. If you are bullish and you think FMG's share price is going up then you must explain in some detail why you believe this to be the case.
2. If you are bearish and you think FMG's share price is going down then you must explain in some detail why you believe this to be the case.
3. If you are neither bullish or bearish and you think FMG's share price is going sideways then you must explain in some detail why you believe this to be the case.
4. If you post a price target (in either direction) then this price target must be accompanied by some supporting analysis. If the analysis is t/a based then posting a chart which illustrates your thoughts would also be advisable.
5. If you state in a post that you have bought FMG then it would be helpful to explain why you bought. This puts your actions in context.
6. If you state in a post that you have sold FMG then it would be helpful to explain why you sold. This puts your actions in context.
Lastly, moderators are ASF members too and are not always posting in the role of a moderator. They are, however, bound by the same rules that all other ASF members are (as I am as well). When they are posting with their mod hats on they will make you aware of that. Otherwise, they are ordinary ASF members and are entitled to their opinion like everyone else.
Now, with that said, lets get back to discussing FMG. I look forward to seeing plenty of posts loaded with valuable content.
This thread has been one of the most troublesome on ASF for some time now and has been close to being temporarily shut down on more than one occasion.
For those posting in this thread I would just like to remind you of what is required:
1. If you are bullish and you think FMG's share price is going up then you must explain in some detail why you believe this to be the case.
2. If you are bearish and you think FMG's share price is going down then you must explain in some detail why you believe this to be the case.
3. If you are neither bullish or bearish and you think FMG's share price is going sideways then you must explain in some detail why you believe this to be the case.
4. If you post a price target (in either direction) then this price target must be accompanied by some supporting analysis. If the analysis is t/a based then posting a chart which illustrates your thoughts would also be advisable.
5. If you state in a post that you have bought FMG then it would be helpful to explain why you bought. This puts your actions in context.
6. If you state in a post that you have sold FMG then it would be helpful to explain why you sold. This puts your actions in context.
Lastly, moderators are ASF members too and are not always posting in the role of a moderator. They are, however, bound by the same rules that all other ASF members are (as I am as well). When they are posting with their mod hats on they will make you aware of that. Otherwise, they are ordinary ASF members and are entitled to their opinion like everyone else.
Now, with that said, lets get back to discussing FMG. I look forward to seeing plenty of posts loaded with valuable content.
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It was released to the market at 2:02pm so it was released 2 hours before the close of today; should be factored in. Hard to say to be honest though, the price has risen from a low of $1.70 only about 2 weeks ago to $2.09 now, that's still a respectable rise and considering the drop on the Dow last night, it was a good excuse to get out.
FWIW, I'm still holding FMG from $1.92; felt it would either smash through the $2.00 barrier or face some strong resistance; still hasn't breached it and have stop set at $1.95 (wouldn't surprise me if it gaps down though). Today was the first down day since the 24th Dec, so it has had a good run and any break below $2.00 will most likely face some selling I suspect. It's also forming a nice triangle on the 3 month chart, so a big break either way?
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prawn_86
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It has had a good run in the last week or so MEAN, thats for sure.
Looking at your chart, it looks to me as though it made a higher low, but then failed on the higher high. So that indicates either back down to test support, or sideways for a while imo
Looking at your chart, it looks to me as though it made a higher low, but then failed on the higher high. So that indicates either back down to test support, or sideways for a while imo
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It's been rather quiet in here for a number of days, so i thought I'd give it a bit of a kick
Does anyone see any potential for good news re FMG in the future
Considering our bigger miners are being hurt further & reporting season is upon us. I wonder whether FMG will survive, I'm personally not optimistic with its large debt issues & lower iron ore prices & a slow in demand. Does anyone think it has the potential to get back to the 4-4.50 mark within the next year or so ?
future take over target ?
Does anyone see any potential for good news re FMG in the future
Considering our bigger miners are being hurt further & reporting season is upon us. I wonder whether FMG will survive, I'm personally not optimistic with its large debt issues & lower iron ore prices & a slow in demand. Does anyone think it has the potential to get back to the 4-4.50 mark within the next year or so ?
future take over target ?
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I believe there's a long term future there.
They have the infrastructure in place and third parties are using it (Atlas Iron), worse case scenario is that they will get taken over if they don't sort out the debt, that's why I'm happy to hold.
In today's West Australian there was an article about Atlas Iron but within it it also said there's rumours of lower quality IO from FMG, problems with output at the mines, which they are "optimising" etc. I haven't heard this in anything official except from people on the ground in terms of rumours...
But FMG has still loaded 6 shipfulls of IO since the start of the year! That must be worth a lot of revenue since AGO's shipment from one cargo ship was estimated at $4 million and FMG's ships are supposedly bigger.
They have the infrastructure in place and third parties are using it (Atlas Iron), worse case scenario is that they will get taken over if they don't sort out the debt, that's why I'm happy to hold.
In today's West Australian there was an article about Atlas Iron but within it it also said there's rumours of lower quality IO from FMG, problems with output at the mines, which they are "optimising" etc. I haven't heard this in anything official except from people on the ground in terms of rumours...
But FMG has still loaded 6 shipfulls of IO since the start of the year! That must be worth a lot of revenue since AGO's shipment from one cargo ship was estimated at $4 million and FMG's ships are supposedly bigger.
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If it breaks below the recent low of $1.69 then I think that below a dollar is possible, as low as mid 80 cents even.
There are a lot of stocks just hanging on to the current positive sentiment, lets hope it lasts, if it doesn't ...
I see a lot of potential wave 4's behaving as wave 4's do at the moment.
Just my
The post above was on the 3rd of Jan, seemed like a bit of a long shot at the time as it was going up.
Looks like it may be on the way now though, 1.69 getting close.
(and Marketech have taken it off their shortable list
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http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=abq99vAsUu58&refer=australia
Fortescue Shuts Ore Port in West Australia After Worker Killed
Looks like this one will be in the RED 2mrow
Fortescue Shuts Ore Port in West Australia After Worker Killed
Looks like this one will be in the RED 2mrow
I hope not. I have 50,000 shares with an average price of 173.5 and a stop at 163.5. I think it will go up in price cos RIO had a good run today, therefore it's FMG's turn tomorrow
.
prawn_86
Mod: Call me Dendrobranchiata
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I hope not. I have 50,000 shares with an average price of 173.5 and a stop at 163.5. I think it will go up in price cos RIO had a good run today, therefore it's FMG's turn tomorrow
How can you have 50,000 at that average, if you sold your entire holding as your first quoted post indicates? That means you have bought 38000 since then, which makes it actually impossible to have that average, even if you bought the whole 38000 at the lows ($1.70) since then.
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dissapointing day today considering the overall market was up, even with the tragic news.
joey called it
joey called it
When I sold the 90,000 shares that ended that transaction. This is the average price for my new transaction which currently holds 50,000 shares.
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A few quotes from Saturday's The West Australian
"$1.1 billion half year profit"
"Cash balance has shrunk to $439 million at the end of December compared to $624 million on Sept 30th."
"financial position is 'highly profitable' and pointing to a $58.41 gross profit margin per tonne on the 13.2 million tonnes shipped to Chinese steel mills in the past 6 months"
"cash operating cost $33.9/t was higher than FMG's target of $30/t"
"pilbara's benchmark iron ore price would be at least 20 percent below last year's figure"
"Admitting to problems with high alumina levels and wet ore, Mr Rowley said FMG had changed the mine plan at Cloudbreak and would fast-track mining at Christmas Creek"
"He said FMG would ship 17.6 million tonnes to customers this half"
There was also a derailment of 80 carrieges from 200 of one of Rio's IO trains which plans to disrupt their traffic. Might work in FMG's favour? Not sure if there are any implications from this.
"$1.1 billion half year profit"
"Cash balance has shrunk to $439 million at the end of December compared to $624 million on Sept 30th."
"financial position is 'highly profitable' and pointing to a $58.41 gross profit margin per tonne on the 13.2 million tonnes shipped to Chinese steel mills in the past 6 months"
"cash operating cost $33.9/t was higher than FMG's target of $30/t"
"pilbara's benchmark iron ore price would be at least 20 percent below last year's figure"
"Admitting to problems with high alumina levels and wet ore, Mr Rowley said FMG had changed the mine plan at Cloudbreak and would fast-track mining at Christmas Creek"
"He said FMG would ship 17.6 million tonnes to customers this half"
There was also a derailment of 80 carrieges from 200 of one of Rio's IO trains which plans to disrupt their traffic. Might work in FMG's favour? Not sure if there are any implications from this.
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Also more detail here
Some of the figures seem to be a bit different
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24986287-643,00.html
Some of the figures seem to be a bit different
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24986287-643,00.html
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Graeme is taking advantages of people's short memory. It was known from day 1 that Christmas Creek ore had a very high alumina and silica. (you could see my posting in this forum some 10 months ago or so on the same matter) That is why they wanted to commission desanding plant, That is why effective $per ton for FMG ore will actually be lesser than competitive product unless the alumina and silica get reduced at minesite in Australia itself. Unfortunately they are fooling investors in a calculated way and changing the mine plan now.
Further they will never disclose the mass analysis of the ore for expansion project either and will reshuffle with orators and stock specialists in the board to fool the market .
I thought they would be some trust worthy this time but a leopard seems to be not changing its spots ever
Sean K
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So what price did you buy the 38,000 at Poppy?
The first buy was 12,000 at around 2.10 wasn't it? = $25,200
The lowest the stock has gone since then is 1.65 I think, so lets assume you bought in then. = $62,700
50,000 shares cost $87,900 = $1.75.
Ah, I see, a typo. You meant to say $1.75 average.
Nice work!
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Graeme is taking advantages of people's short memory. It was known from day 1 that Christmas Creek ore had a very high alumina and silica. (you could see my posting in this forum some 10 months ago or so on the same matter) That is why they wanted to commission desanding plant, That is why effective $per ton for FMG ore will actually be lesser than competitive product unless the alumina and silica get reduced at minesite in Australia itself. Unfortunately they are fooling investors in a calculated way and changing the mine plan now.
Further they will never disclose the mass analysis of the ore for expansion project either and will reshuffle with orators and stock specialists in the board to fool the market .
I thought they would be some trust worthy this time but a leopard seems to be not changing its spots ever
The grade quality is only one part of the equation.
Report should be out Monday that will be a bit more transparent.
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Following on from my post back early in the year, FMG has broken down from its support at $2.00, and now showing some resistance at $1.80. But still well above its lows in November. Looks like now it is still trading in that triangle I posted last, and I suspect a big break is due any time soon, probably within the next few weeks. Positive or negative I am unsure, depends a lot on the Dow which held its 8000 support, by a thread
Anyone going to pick which way it's going to go? It's also following a nice trend line down. A break up I feel will follow a lot of buying and push the price much higher, otherwise any break down and I think we will see a much lower low this time around. Not holding FWIW.
Anyone going to pick which way it's going to go? It's also following a nice trend line down. A break up I feel will follow a lot of buying and push the price much higher, otherwise any break down and I think we will see a much lower low this time around. Not holding FWIW.
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Well, that was quick!
It bounced off the $1.80 resistance and opened well above that this morning, bought in quickly this morning at $1.85 and set a tight stop/loss at $1.855 in case it is a fake breakout. Suspect this may be a move higher in response to Rio selling it's assets and getting investment from Chinalco over the weekend, so not trusting it to be a big break higher yet.
Anyone else willing to buy it? $2.00 will be the major resistance now if $1.80 holds from here.
