FMG - Fortescue Ltd

[Prospector]

Hey people, this thread is starting to read like one found on HC! Can we get it back to analysis maybe?

<ducking for cover>

 

[oldblue]

Hey people, this thread is starting to read like one found on HC! Can we get it back to analysis maybe?

<ducking for cover>

Indeed!

Is anything allowed in the silly season or does it mean that our esteemed moderators are having a well-earned holiday?

 

[Sean K]

Indeed!

Is anything allowed in the silly season or does it mean that our esteemed moderators are having a well-earned holiday?

Sometimes posts are left for humour value.

I thought it was pretty funny.

Damn this 100ch rule!

 

[nunthewiser]

Hey people, this thread is starting to read like one found on HC! Can we get it back to analysis maybe?

<ducking for cover>

Indeed!

Is anything allowed in the silly season or does it mean that our esteemed moderators are having a well-earned holiday?

Hi guys.......... um if you scroll backover the last 8 months or so you will see many posts of mine regarding analysis and various other nuts and bolts of FMG ............ just wondering if you guys had any to add or you just prefer to pick on posts instead ?? im finding it hard to find any analysis by you guys tho , is there a reason for this ?

thankyou in advance

 

[oldblue]

Hi nun.

I'm probably guilty as charged.

My "involvement" in FMG is as an interested observer - I havn't done any research on the company but I'm more than a little interested in what others think of it. I just like to see reasons for dogmatic statements about the SP!

I'm also a little sensitive to the fraught question of what is and what is not regarded as ramping, having been disciplined myself in these forums for what was classed as a "minor ramp". A decision with which, naturally, I strongly disagreed!

Cheers

 

[nunthewiser]

Hi nun.

I'm probably guilty as charged.

My "involvement" in FMG is as an interested observer - I havn't done any research on the company but I'm more than a little interested in what others think of it. I just like to see reasons for dogmatic statements about the SP!

I'm also a little sensitive to the fraught question of what is and what is not regarded as ramping, having been disciplined myself in these forums for what was classed as a "minor ramp". A decision with which, naturally, I strongly disagreed!

Cheers

gday Blue .i too am guilty as charged of being a minor ramper in the past ....so have now decided to become a shameless one ......goooo stox !

on a serious note . I too wonder on many of these guestimates on how far this and thats going to fly to when there is no reasons given other than " i just bought a heap , yeah man there goin to 3 bux !"


gotta admit though , this has got to be one of the more entertaining threads out there

have a great day

 

[Boggo]

Mid 80 cents will get my attention agro.

I am not trying to create negative sentiment, reality is the driver of that unfortunately.

If it breaks below the recent low of $1.69 then I think that below a dollar is possible, as low as mid 80 cents even.

There are a lot of stocks just hanging on to the current positive sentiment, lets hope it lasts, if it doesn't ...

I see a lot of potential wave 4's behaving as wave 4's do at the moment.

Just my in an attempt to get other views on what they think may happen.

 

[joeyjoejoe]

thread is always good for a laugh..

I think also personally $1 looks attractive. id grab some of that.. but id actually watch it closely...if it hit $1 and bounced off it back above a few times.. definately id tap that.

but if it lingers at $1 and starts to drop slowly into the 90's id stay away.....unless it begins to shoot up strongly past $1.

in other words dont grab it at $1.00 on the first drop.. wait for it to hit and bounce above 2-3 times before you buy in (by this i mean on the day....not over a period of days)

watch the depth for resistance basically .......looking for large buy orders at $1.00 or above keeping it above water

just my thoughts on trading the stocks.. SP.. nothing technical about the company..

and dont be afraid to buy from 1.01 - 1.05 as mentioned previously. by doing this you will be infront of ALOT of people at 1.00 even. (who might miss out by 1cent)

let me just say my day job is not very stimulating but computer based work.... i probably watch the depth for 50% of the time the market is open on various companies.

im off the iron ore bandwagon and onto the CSG....albeit fairly tardy

 

[SenTineL]

This thread never seizes to amaze me.

One of the lessons I've learned is to trade the market as it is not try to second guess it or expect it to do what you want it.

All these 'what ifs' at $1.00 are a waste of time, the stock is trading at $2.12 as I type this.

 

[justiceotp]

Yeah good call its hard enough working out what the market is going to do currently. Why would you bother to work out what you are going to do if it ends up at $1 as it could end up at $1 for many reason not even known yet and if its at $1 it could be cheap or still over priced depending on the reason it hit $1.

 

[michael_selway]

Yeah good call its hard enough working out what the market is going to do currently. Why would you bother to work out what you are going to do if it ends up at $1 as it could end up at $1 for many reason not even known yet and if its at $1 it could be cheap or still over priced depending on the reason it hit $1.

Hi yeah thats true, but its debt is still the issue i think

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2008 2009 2010 2011
EPS -163.6 33.4 48.4 45.8
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Date: 23/12/2008
Author: Sarah-Jane Tasker
Source: The Australian --- Page: 15
Iron ore miner Fortescue Metals Group has been punished by investors forresorting to a share placement to bolster its finances. In order to consolidatecash, it is paying some contractors in scrip worth $A3.65m. As a result thestock closed $A0.44 lower at $A1.71 on 22 December 2008. It had recently risenon takeover speculation, mostly involving Chinese parties

Date: 23/12/2008
Author: Rebecca Keenan
Source: The Sydney Morning Herald --- Page: 25
The share price of Fortescue Metals Group has fallen after it issued new sharesto cover costs. It sold 1.5 million shares at $A2.36 each in mid-December 2008.The company said that legal action had frozen $A1.5 million in accounts. Thenews caused its share price to drop by 21 per cent to $A1.715 on 22 December

thx

MS

 

[joeyjoejoe]

i also don't think its very likely we will see $1. just as i suggested people were getting carried away when they suggested 20c and was mocked.

i see your point on looking at "why" it got to $1.00, of course you would be aware of the goings on to some extent without blindly day trading it. but basically you can still tell which way a stock is trending on any given day. maybe thats a blanket statement.. but I back my ability to do this. ....i have been more hit than miss in recent times but this has only come on the back of lessons learnt early and plenty of screen time (whilst making my primary income from my day job) which as mentioned is computer based and taking moderate risks.

 

[Frankhalo]

Business as usual, 2.7 million metric tons shipped in Dec08...

PERTH, Jan 06, 2009 (Dow Jones Commodities News via Comtex) -- BHP Billiton Ltd.

BHP exported 10.6 million metric tons of iron ore from the Pilbara region of Western Australia in December, a slight increase on November, according to figures posted Wednesday on the Port Hedland Port Authority website.
Slowing demand from steelmakers has forced many global iron ore miners to cut production, but BHP's Pilbara shipments are holding up, based on the port data of the past few months.

BHP's latest shipments compare with 10.1 million tons exported in November - the lowest monthly shipments since February - and October exports of 10.2 million tons.
BHP's December exports are still 13% down on the June record of 12.26 million tons, shipped during the peak of the China-driven iron ore boom.

BHP has said that it doesn't plan to scale back its Pilbara production with any tons surplus to contract requirements to be sold into the spot market.

The port's website also shows a strong recovery in export volumes for Fortescue Metals Group Ltd., (FMG.AU) following a temporary port closure in November to carry out expansion work.

Fortescue's shipments of 2.7 million metric tons were up 50% on the November figure of 1.8 million tons, and bettered the previous record July shipments of 2.5 million tons.

By Stephen Bell, contributor to Dow Jones Newswires; +61-8-9244-4243; sgbell@bigpond.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires

 

[gav]

Well,l i bought 90,000 shares at an average price of 190, a few days ago, and will sell when i feel the rise is over (220 - 280). Currently it sits at 201 and rising. I believe there is going to be a substancial rise very soon. I have no doubt they will be sitting around the $3 mark before March (2009). I feel very confident of my investment, as far as making me some quick cash goes

Well well well... Didnt the haters roll on in after this post. Granted it would have been nice to know what made you believe the share price was on the way up...

In less than 2 weeks those 90,000 shares @ $1.90 are up 20%, a profit of $33K!!!

Congrats

 

[Poppypop]

Well well well... Didnt the haters roll on in after this post. Granted it would have been nice to know what made you believe the share price was on the way up...

In less than 2 weeks those 90,000 shares @ $1.90 are up 20%, a profit of $33K!!!

Congrats

Thank you Gav, I sold all my 90,000 shares at 2.24 on Wednesdays open and made just over 30k. I have bought 12,000 more today for 210 and plan to buy more if they fall tomorrow (Friday).

 

[prawn_86]

Thank you Gav, I sold all my 90,000 shares at 2.24 on Wednesdays open and made just over 30k. I have bought 12,000 more today for 210 and plan to buy more if they fall tomorrow (Friday).

Ahh, nothing like a bit of hindsight trading.

Isn't it amazing how you managed to pick very close to the high...

 

[gav]

Ahh, nothing like a bit of hindsight trading.

Isn't it amazing how you managed to pick very close to the high...

WTF?! If it was another company in another thread then this statement wouldnt have been made. Actually, I've seen similar posts in a number of different threads with no accusations like this. In "hindsight", it looks like poppypop sold a little soon (not that I'd complain with the profit!). The high was $2.37, so the high was missed by $0.13, which is quite alot of money if you have 90,000 shares!

Who knows, FMG could be $2.60 on Monday and the decision to sell would have been premature, or they could be $1.90 again and the sell decision was a wise one.

The funny thing is, if the SP had tanked, you'd be asking poppypop if they had sold already or a Stop was used - but because the SP went up, oh it has to be "hindsight" trading...

 

[SenTineL]

At the end of the day it's a profitable trade no matter what happens after this or how much more you could have lost / gained.

Well done on the trade.

It's also funny how there's no posts here when the share price has been up in the last few days, but when it drops the posts rack up again.

 

[prawn_86]

No im just laughing at his lack of analysis and veiled attempts at ramping. Which seems to be quite common amongst this thread for some reason

 

[gav]

No, you said it was "hindsight" trading. I already stated that it would have been good to know WHY poppypop thought the SP would rise. Being a first post, perhaps they didnt read the rules about posting in the Stock Discussion part of the forum.

"Veiled" attempts at ramping? Clearly it wasnt very "veiled", judging by the responses.