FMG - Fortescue Ltd

[Miner]

I am looking for a level playing price. That means waiting to level the price of FMG to come its true value at which Twiggy invested

the way FMG is tanking and probably Twiggy is praying before the Chinese to TAKE ME HELP ME, the price in terms of cents not far off.

then I can average with more buying at 50 cents (Aligning with what Agro said) with my current purchase at $7

I am currently left myself with the downslide flow without trying to swim against with a hope it will reach the bank of an estuary one day

 

[impala_group]

I dont think it will hit $1.00 this week.
Infact if you missed the low today - there may never be a chance. If we get +ve lead from the dow tonite i think FMG will actually recoupe some of its losses this week.

have a look at that link

http://business.smh.com.au/business/fortescue-secures-more-sales-to-china-20081120-6cm3.html

 

[agro]

I dont think it will hit $1.00 this week.
Infact if you missed the low today - there may never be a chance. If we get +ve lead from the dow tonite i think FMG will actually recoupe some of its losses this week.

have a look at that link

http://business.smh.com.au/business/fortescue-secures-more-sales-to-china-20081120-6cm3.html

chances of that happening

still think long term - give it a couple years will be back around $5

just want to be the bottom picker i guess lol

 

[drsmith]

That announcement was made to the ASX after the market closed but interestingly FMG finished off it's lows.

RIO however took a pounding.

 

[alex arigo]

i own fmg for the long term they said today they made 360,000,000 bucks in net profit from the sale of 6,800000 tones of iron ore thats 53 dollers profit a tone they said one off the steel mills said they wanted more iron ore from them and they got it every one is saying demand is slowing but at the end of the day the smaller steel mills will suffer and lose money and cut demand for iron ore because they cant pay higher prices for the ore where the larger steel mills like bousteel and other huge still mills will increase demand for ore and thats what fmg is doing there got deals will large steel mils not small mills fmg said demand was very strong for there iron ore and the chinese steel mills were very happy with there ore this is short term problem but china will come out bigger and better and stronger

 

[agro]

i own fmg for the long term they said today they made 360,000,000 bucks in net profit from the sale of 6,800000 tones of iron ore thats 53 dollers profit a tone they said one off the steel mills said they wanted more iron ore from them and they got it every one is saying demand is slowing but at the end of the day the smaller steel mills will suffer and lose money and cut demand for iron ore because they cant pay higher prices for the ore where the larger steel mills like bousteel and other huge still mills will increase demand for ore and thats what fmg is doing there got deals will large steel mils not small mills fmg said demand was very strong for there iron ore and the chinese steel mills were very happy with there ore this is short term problem but china will come out bigger and better and stronger

yes - exactly

FMG will come out trumps long term

remember they have better relationships when china than do BHP and RIO -

i still remember twiggy denoting a portion of the 1st shipment to the earthquakes that happened in china!! if that's not good customer relationship building !

 

[Dowdy]

The problem with this share is that they don't have dividends so you don't know if there earning are fake or not (like ABC)

 

[Warren Buffet II]

How much crap this Twwigy guy can say?

i own fmg for the long term they said today they made 360,000,000 bucks in net profit from the sale of 6,800000 tones of iron ore thats 53 dollers profit a tone they said one off the steel mills said they wanted more iron ore from them and they got it every one is saying demand is slowing but at the end of the day the smaller steel mills will suffer and lose money and cut demand for iron ore because they cant pay higher prices for the ore where the larger steel mills like bousteel and other huge still mills will increase demand for ore and thats what fmg is doing there got deals will large steel mils not small mills fmg said demand was very strong for there iron ore and the chinese steel mills were very happy with there ore this is short term problem but china will come out bigger and better and stronger

This Twwigy guy is the master of ramping and talking up his companies, ASX should ban those idiots who do not give the full story to the common people than later on come to this forums triumph and say that FMG will outperform the market to reach $5 soon?????

From:

http://business.smh.com.au/business/fortescue-opens-its-books-20081120-6cth.html

Profit:
They said a profit of $360ml but they had a loss of as follows:
"Coinciding with its annual meeting in Perth yesterday, Fortescue reported a loss during the quarter - calculated by the Herald to be $55 million, after excluding the revaluation of a subordinated note and the effects of currency fluctuations on its long-term debt but including interest payments and taxes."

So the $360ml is pure bull sh**, tell the whole story. This shows the are in a huge debt problem.

Mills asking for more:
What a piece of crap.....
"The miner yesterday said it had amended one of its sales contracts with an unnamed top-five steelmill in China to increase the size of deliveries to 5.5 million tonnes next year compared with the 2 million tonnes a year of the original contract.

But since Fortescue already has contracts for up to 100 million tonnes of annual sales, this revision implies one or more other customers must have lowered or abandoned their offtake agreements."

This also shows that they are master at confusing the market and just ramping it up. Good Chinese relationships is pure crap, this Twwigy guy went to China to beg the Mills to get his iron ore because other mills broke their contract full stop.

WBII

 

[agro]

up 20%

whoooooo hoooooooo

wheres all the critics now

do u hold warren...

good thing i got in at 1.23

 

[Warren Buffet II]

up 20%

whoooooo hoooooooo

wheres all the critics now

do u hold warren...

good thing i got in at 1.23

I am here, I do not hold and won't for anything on earth.

Just wait, wait..., laughing too soon. Have lost 10% for your 20% high already.

WBII

 

[agro]

I am here, I do not hold and won't for anything on earth.

Just wait, wait..., laughing too soon. Have lost 10% for your 20% high already.

WBII

alot of buyers now mate

why don't you hold.. its all good news?!!

you seem to keep a strong interest in this thread

 

[prawn_86]

up 20%

whoooooo hoooooooo

wheres all the critics now

do u hold warren...

good thing i got in at 1.23

You want a critic?

Wasnt it you who rode them all the way to the top, refusing to sell only to be forced to sell way below the high due to a margin call?

Then you got back in at about $2.50 but sold not long after because it was a "dog". If it drops below $1 will you call it a dog again?

I wouldnt be gloating just yet the way the whole market is, unless you sell and actually lock in your profits...

 

[Sean K]

While I think we might be around a bottom of some sorts, I wouldn't be too excited about a few % right now.

Emotion is driving this at the moment.

But, emotion may drive it the other way too when people are too afraid of missing the rebound where a lot of gains will be made.

hmmmmm

 

[spooly74]

alot of buyers now mate

why don't you hold.. its all good news?!!

Broker valuation came through today with a 12 month price target of $1 based on DCF.
While they acknowledge that the ann that it reached an agreement with the existing ‘top 5’ Chinese steel mills to increase portion of production from 4.4% to 10% for 09 was positive, it does not represent any increase in sales volume.
There are real concerns on the status of FMG's other contracts which represent 90% of production for 2009, and there has been no guidance from the company on this.
The extent of the sales volume risk is also increased as FMG has out of the money freight contracts due to the sharp pull back in freight prices over the past month.

...not all good imo

 

[jonojpsg]

Surely if they are producing 40m tonnes a year at around $30 a tonne and selling it all for $70 a tonne then there shouldn't be too much problem?? that makes $1.6b a year which more than covers debt repayments of $500m.

big question is whether they can sell it all

 

[Aussiejeff]

Broker valuation came through today with a 12 month price target of $1 based on DCF....

Who in their right mind would trust a broker's recommendation right now?

After the steaming piles of over-optimistic B$ that a raft of "respected brokers" fed the media as the World's financial markets crashed down, can anyone seriously take any recommendation into the future price of a share as being remotely "accurate" anymore?

Currently, to base a BUY/SELL decision on some half-a$$ed "expert broker" twaddle is akin to playing Russian Roulette - they are as trustworthy as used car salesmen. IMO of course.

 

[KFC soup]

also keep in mind that while the cost of freight graph looks bad, fmg did not contract the freight at the top. it is thought to be less than half and is shared arrangement with the buyer meaning they pay.

on top of that there's no long term freight contract on spot selling

 

[champ]

This market is awesome, better than sportstab or any online casino.
Made a truckload today on fmg. you dont need brains or stats, just balls!!

 

[Mr Capital]

This market is awesome, better than sportstab or any online casino.
Made a truckload today on fmg. you dont need brains or stats, just balls!!

It's also very easy to blow your brains out.
Sounds like you are a gambler, not an investor.
Tread carefully.

 

[prawn_86]

This market is awesome, better than sportstab or any online casino.
Made a truckload today on fmg. you dont need brains or stats, just balls!!

It's also very easy to blow your brains out.
Sounds like you are a gambler, not an investor.
Tread carefully.

Yep, just wait till it goes the other way and then see how you feel.

What was your R:R for the trade? What % of capital did you risk? Why did you enter the trade? What was your target?

If you cant answer all of these (plus many others) then its pure gambling.