FMG - Fortescue Ltd

[MichaelD]

Howdy all true believers,

I've been on holidays - hence no time for posting.

Wow - what a difference 2 months makes.

$2.85 - who'd thunk it a year ago. But then, there was a lot of bottom picking going on at the start of July and the results of that are equally gruesome. Makes my exit at $8.65 look very pleasant in hindsight even though I didn't particularly like taking the stop at the time.

The most apt market saws at the moment seem to be;

"Don't fall in love with a stock. It won't love you back."
"The market can stay irrational for longer than you can remain solvent."

Lotsa loving still going on in this thread.

 

[treefrog]

I would be very wary buying in at present: From ABC site today.

Access Economics' latest business outlook predicts that China's economy has now joined the list of nations hit by the global financial crisis, and that Australia will feel the effects.
China says that its growth will slow slightly to nine per cent next year but Access Economics director Chris Richardson expects it will be a shade above 7 per cent.
"It's a problem for Australia as markets fall, share markets, property values fall in China. And as construction weakens off, that's weakening the demand for steel and Australia's risk is we sell the inputs that become Chinese steel - coking coal and the iron ore," he said.

He says spot steel prices have fallen from $US1,200 a tonne in July to $US255 a tonne yesterday.

Mrs Treefrog will hop 3km and shed 3kg to get to a 50% off sale so after hearing that about iron ore this morning and smart enough to know they use iron to make steel, she wants me to put in an order for all the remaining colourbond cladding we need to finish the holiday pondhouse.
I suggested that it would be after Xmas before the price drop filters back down and it might not be that much as there are many bulls on the FMG thread who reackon it will stay high for years yet because of the high priced contracts they have.
Nonsense! she said.
All those silly steelmills who paid that price and keep their steel price high because they did just won't get any customers - they will go to the other mills who are buying at $255. Just make sure you get it from them as well.

Just to be sure that the bulls are right and Mrs Treefrog is wrong I decided to check the other metals prices to get some indication..........Holey crap Batman, you seen this!! (GFMS Metals Consulting's base metal price index is based on the official LME cash settlement price for primary aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin and zinc. The index is an average of the six prices with equal weighting given to each of the six metals. The index is based on January 4th 2000 = 100.)

 

[Warren Buffet II]

I have continued buying FMG but am running out of cash.. I am considering taking out a loan to buy more.. (I usually only spend my own monies! but am very tempted) I noticed the LVG on this from comsec is 40% has that been reduced? Does anyone know if it was around 60% previously?

We need to love this kind of stupidity, this is the kind of people that help others to get out of bad businesses and save some of their capital.

Keep buying as much as you can so the poor shareholders can sell to you as much as they can.

Copper dropping to $1.76 @ the moment.

WBII

 

[Miner]

We need to love this kind of stupidity, this is the kind of people that help others to get out of bad businesses and save some of their capital.

Keep buying as much as you can so the poor shareholders can sell to you as much as they can.

Copper dropping to $1.76 @ the moment.

WBII

Interesting WBII to suggest some one was stupid when he mentioned to buy more FMG by taking loan

Some times hidden rampers jack up people sentiment suggesting others will start buying so he could sell. I am thinking that could be the person's strategy to letting us think that he is stupid and he probably is laughing at us

IMO it will be a real disaster for any one to buy FMG even I know to have bought them at high price and to hold them.

Reading through Andrew's comment on CHinese hold and hearing FMG is now relying on smaller contractors to deliver their expansion could be a sign of disaster. DYOR and I am not an expert on stock prediction or calculation.

 

[alex arigo]

every thing they post about fmg is a load of crap what they say is not true they are a great iron ore company that are moving forward i own 3000 shares and yeah i am down 40 percent but i am a long term investor and i know in 6 years i will look back and say it was worth the wait the iron ore boom is not over china is only having a deep breath i all so hold atlas iron and brockman knowing that these are great iron ore plays who have a great future a head brockman 110 million in the back and 1.6 billion tones off high grade ore and a market cap of 60 million thats a joke and atlas what can i say great out look a head these 2 companys i love because fmg has links with these companys to hall there ore for them iron ore all the way

 

[nunthewiser]

every thing they post about fmg is a load of crap what they say is not true they are a great iron ore company that are moving forward i own 3000 shares and yeah i am down 40 percent but i am a long term investor and i know in 6 years i will look back and say it was worth the wait the iron ore boom is not over china is only having a deep breath i all so hold atlas iron and brockman knowing that these are great iron ore plays who have a great future a head brockman 110 million in the back and 1.6 billion tones off high grade ore and a market cap of 60 million thats a joke and atlas what can i say great out look a head these 2 companys i love because fmg has links with these companys to hall there ore for them iron ore all the way

oh dear........good luck in the market champ

cheers............................................................................................................................................................................................................


.......................

ps was being sincere in my saying good luck in the market

 

[chops_a_must]

every thing they post about fmg is a load of crap what they say is not true they are a great iron ore company that are moving forward i own 3000 shares and yeah i am down 40 percent but i am a long term investor and i know in 6 years i will look back and say it was worth the wait the iron ore boom is not over china is only having a deep breath i all so hold atlas iron and brockman knowing that these are great iron ore plays who have a great future a head brockman 110 million in the back and 1.6 billion tones off high grade ore and a market cap of 60 million thats a joke and atlas what can i say great out look a head these 2 companys i love because fmg has links with these companys to hall there ore for them iron ore all the way

Right...

So what would people say if I told them that I'm hearing from people in the industry, that FMG are having problems with their grades?

 

[gav]

oh dear........good luck in the market champ

cheers............................................................................................................................................................................................................


.......................

ps was being sincere in my saying good luck in the market

Oh dear indeed.... At least he didnt buy into MGX. Imagine the sleepness nights he'd have if he was holding MGX right now.....

 

[nunthewiser]

Oh dear indeed.... At least he didnt buy into MGX. Imagine the sleepness nights he'd have if he was holding MGX right now.....

my average hold is at 32 cents darl

this is comprised of a free ride from 18.4 average , a parcel mid 50s , a parcel mid 40s

no sleepless night here

still in profit

will stop out if needs be

just because i found a previous post tragic please do not iclude me in your obviously frustrated state at being unable to hold a trade without losing half ya capital

thankyou

 

[nunthewiser]

P.S darl i should point out too that over the ourse of mgx rise i removed original capital PLUS removed another 3 times that amount and the remainder is free essentially


sorry to hear u were unable to remove any profits gav and watched the hold sink 50% instead but hey dont take out ya frustrations on me


blessya son

 

[alex arigo]

fmg will make 45 dollers profit for every tone in ore they sell 45 millions tones is what a billion plus in profits next year i am a long term holder go fmg

 

[renim]

Different plans, different strategies. Personally I like the hold 6 years idea (if you can't hold for less than 6 years than why be in shares anyway). Mine is more the hold until after dividends, and then re-assess. Yes that means that I cop the risk for non-dividend paying stock, which is a punishing place to be in a bear market. But having said that, there are other stocks out there that are being even crazierly priced from a PE ratio.

 

[jman2007]

Right...

So what would people say if I told them that I'm hearing from people in the industry, that FMG are having problems with their grades?

Chops,

Do you know if the FMG Resource calculations take into account the internal waste ratio? I'm not an iron ore expert by any means, but failure to take into account the volume of waste between the high grade Fe2O3 lenses could cetainly dilute the grade imo.

Comments?

jman

 

[chops_a_must]

Chops,

Do you know if the FMG Resource calculations take into account the internal waste ratio? I'm not an iron ore expert by any means, but failure to take into account the volume of waste between the high grade Fe2O3 lenses could cetainly dilute the grade imo.

Comments?

jman

I wouldn't have a clue to be honest jman.

This is just what I hear from a metallurgist in the field.

 

[jman2007]

I wouldn't have a clue to be honest jman.

This is just what I hear from a metallurgist in the field.

No worries Chops,

I don't think we have any met's lurking on ASF atm, this question may have to remain unanswered for tonight at least

jman
(dnh)

 

[BrownHornet]

Can't help but feel a few here still to micro in their focus on FMG.
Worth a watch.
Roubini Sees Crisis Worsening, Hurting Emerging Markets

He has been spot on with most everything to date and calls for at least another 20% drop in commodity. It is these reasons that the informed are still moving out of stock and resources in particular. Too many don't understand opportunity cost and a declining SP is a loss. No matter what you think.

Exciting time but FMG is not that good to keep holding just because it looks cheap. Enjoy

 

[Sean K]

Can't help but feel a few here still to micro in their focus on FMG.
Worth a watch.
Roubini Sees Crisis Worsening, Hurting Emerging Markets

He has been spot on with most everything to date and calls for at least another 20% drop in commodity. It is these reasons that the informed are still moving out of stock and resources in particular. Too many don't understand opportunity cost and a declining SP is a loss. No matter what you think.

Exciting time but FMG is not that good to keep holding just because it looks cheap. Enjoy

Hi BH,

I'm wondering about this 20% further drop, or more, and if everyone believes it then it's factored in, no?

Maybe no...

But, the stock market is a prospective forward looking beast, and not a true representaion of the economy.....maybe.

I am personally struggling to see what is really factored in, or not, due to the emotion of the market at this time.

 

[ROE]

Im at uni now but cant give a detailed anlysis, but if you look back in about April or so I was calling fair value at about $6.50.

This was mainly based on projected earnings and PE ratios, however while they may be fundamentally undervalued, virtually every stock on the bourse is and we all know the pain of trying to go against sentiment.

Remember resource stock are no different from the tech bubble stocks.
they all counting future earning and potential earning which may or may not eventuate.

if you like resource stock why not get something like BHP/RIO that are making REAL cash now and not going into deficit each year.

Don't count on China to keep resource stocks going and here is the simple economic of why

when the bull rule the market, debt is cheap and everyone is feeling richer
they look to invest in emerging country hoping to better return namely China, and that give them the cash cow to buy our resources.

that the nature of human Greed, always want more and not content of what they can get right now, present in hand and in countries they know best instead they pump their money in some strange land, where they know nothing about.

so what happen now? all those money will be pulling out of China to save their own ass and China once again become an emerging country with less money in their pocket and hence they aren't going to pay crazy price for resources.

Hello what happen to stronger for longer? people dont tell you what keep China going longer for stronger do they? and that is Foreign money

same thing they don't tell you when you borrow the margin loans
they only tell you that stock can only goes up and show you pretty graphs of how much money you COULD be making.

Stick to the basic you never lose money
economic 101

 

[BrownHornet]

Hi BH,

I'm wondering about this 20% further drop, or more, and if everyone believes it then it's factored in, no?

Maybe no...

But, the stock market is a prospective forward looking beast, and not a true representaion of the economy.....maybe.

I am personally struggling to see what is really factored in, or not, due to the emotion of the market at this time.

I guess my point is that most people still don't see that this can go another 20% down or are not informing themselves. I do sincerely believe that the video does no favours for the market and subsequent psychology behind it. But all I know is I'd prefer to be a first out of everything than hanging on. Worst I see is market starts a move up again (unlikely) and I jump on board. Everything I read is I likely have 6-12 months (of course will be some bear rallies in there along the way). I guess it is all about hedging your investments. My prediction will be as things get worse and then your average Jo starts to think about putting all of their super into cash you will see the biggest ever market bottom. Average Jo is not there yet but I have heard people talking in shops about it. This is unprecedented.

Super funds will be forced to change their positions. That is when I'll think about quality stocks again. A bit of topic I guess so will I look at FMG again? Probably but at much lower price than currently is.

 

[agro]

how come every time i log on to aussie stock forums i notice FMG in the top 10 threads on the main page?

just goes to show, regardless of whether you like it or hate it, there is heated debate about the company


does this say something about its popularity