FMG - Fortescue Ltd

[divs4ever]

Not sure why you would say that.
The biggest investments Twiggy is making in net zero are developing solar farms to power electric mining operations. And of course developing and using the electric diggers These have an exceptionally high ROI and will reduce operational costs immediately. RIO is following course as other other miners. It just make excellent financial sense.

The Hydrogen projects are being downsized radically. Not killed yet and there may yet be some decent results. FMG has in interest in a new technology that could produce Hydrogen far more cheaply than electrolysis.

Obviously China's demand for ore is the big question. Interestingly enough the current crash in the Aus Dollar improves our Iron Ore revenue (everything else being equal..)

and yet many profitable iron miners ( operating in Australia ) have dropped significantly in the last two trading day , not just FMG

this solar stuff ... i have had three arrays , for over 10 years now , and have watch the benefits just vanish ( dishonored extended warranties , failures caused by $2 parts , changes in rules/regulations , feed-back payments and extra charges )

and Twiggy runs the risk of extra insurance gouging if he uses battery storage

solar has been a cash cow all right .. but not for the property/company where the solar systems are located

 

[basilio]

and yet many profitable iron miners ( operating in Australia ) have dropped significantly in the last two trading day , not just FMG

this solar stuff ... i have had three arrays , for over 10 years now , and have watch the benefits just vanish ( dishonored extended warranties , failures caused by $2 parts , changes in rules/regulations , feed-back payments and extra charges )

and Twiggy runs the risk of extra insurance gouging if he uses battery storage

solar has been a cash cow all right .. but not for the property/company where the solar systems are located

I'm sorry to hear your solar panels have been a bust. Really xhite.
From my POV I couldn't be happier. Went up 7 years ago. Haven't missed a beat since. I just wash the panels down every few years.

Added a heat pump hot water system 3 years ago and again, cross fingers, all good.
It's a shame the feed in tariffs have effectively disappeared. Certainly makes a battery set up look promising.

I don't believe Twiggy will be hurt with going solar. He is too sharp and ruthless to put up with dodgy deals. Also the economics of solar power and electrification of his mining operations is exceptionally good value. That is why other mining companies are jumping in as well.

 

[divs4ever]

Certainly makes a battery set up look promising.

check your insurance policy very carefully if going with a battery

as for Twiggy well i hope he got some top advice , there is a solar farm about 20km down the road ( about 5 acres of them ) and the synchronization of them is very unimpressive , and that just what i spot from the road i haven't been inside the fence-line

time will tell but i bet better technology is on the way ( panels and batteries )

 

[Smurf1976]

this solar stuff ... i have had three arrays , for over 10 years now , and have watch the benefits just vanish ( dishonored extended warranties , failures caused by $2 parts , changes in rules/regulations , feed-back payments and extra charges )

There's a big difference economically in generating electricity from solar on a relatively large scale at a remote site with a near constant load and using it yourself versus a comparatively tiny installation on a house with a highly variable load that not uncommonly is extremely low when solar production is high.

Setting aside price, since markets can do anything in the short term, the fundamental economics involved there are very different.

For a mining company one thing it does is reduces ongoing financial risk, effectively locking in a key input cost rather than being exposed to volatile gas or diesel pricing.

On the technical side well I'd assume proper engineering is being done, by actual engineers, and that this isn't some random solar sales company that signs people up then subcontracts everything.

 

[Smurf1976]

I know he's building on the green industry and has green energy projects in NSW and QLD for the grid

I'm not sure how it sits within the FMG corporate structure or whether it's outside that but Twiggy himself has pretty much cornered the market for LNG imports at least initially.

The Port Kembla facility is substantially built versus no other facility in NSW or Victoria having progressed any further than the planning stage. Only other one of relevance is in SA but that's also behind Port Kembla.

There's a near-certain market for gas imports in south-eastern Australia in the medium term (even if those imports are shipped from elsewhere in Australia, it's still an import in the physical sense) so in this context as a terminal owner / operator Twiggy's in a position akin to selling the picks and shovels. Doesn't matter which energy company (AGL, Origin, etc) someone buys gas from if physical supply is dependent on shipping it via the PK terminal.

It wouldn't be totally impossible to stuff that up as a money making opportunity but it'd be hard. Bearing in mind the biggest cost component, the floating storage and regassification vessel, is leased and can literally sail away for use elsewhere if the project did turn out to be unviable financially.

Only bit I'm not sure of is whether this is technically part of FMG in a financial sense or whether it's part of some other company but it's definitely Twiggy doing it.

 

[qldfrog]

Wise guy Twiggy, suck money from taxpayers directly as subsidies for his green dream sell, then suck money back from the taxpayers via market reimporting the gas we are exporting..wonder if we will see a fleet of boats looping between qld and nsw terminal, unloading there.
And the whole reason of this mess is the political brakes to new fields exploration/exploitation via the very narrative Twiggy sells
When you see how expensive energy wise that gas shipping after compression and then reimporting is, what a great success for the environment, let alone our pockets.
The next stage will obviously be more government help to prop up our "green" IO facing the "unfair" competition of "dirty" african, chinese, brazilian competition.
Good on him, poor of us.
So let's wait now for this logical next phase: us, taxpayer helping Twiggy
I did not say helping FMG as shareholders might not be included

 

[TimeISmoney]

I'm not sure how it sits within the FMG corporate structure or whether it's outside that but Twiggy himself has pretty much cornered the market for LNG imports at least initially.

The Port Kembla facility is substantially built versus no other facility in NSW or Victoria having progressed any further than the planning stage. Only other one of relevance is in SA but that's also behind Port Kembla.

There's a near-certain market for gas imports in south-eastern Australia in the medium term (even if those imports are shipped from elsewhere in Australia, it's still an import in the physical sense) so in this context as a terminal owner / operator Twiggy's in a position akin to selling the picks and shovels. Doesn't matter which energy company (AGL, Origin, etc) someone buys gas from if physical supply is dependent on shipping it via the PK terminal.

It wouldn't be totally impossible to stuff that up as a money making opportunity but it'd be hard. Bearing in mind the biggest cost component, the floating storage and regassification vessel, is leased and can literally sail away for use elsewhere if the project did turn out to be unviable financially.

Only bit I'm not sure of is whether this is technically part of FMG in a financial sense or whether it's part of some other company but it's definitely Twiggy doing it.

Twiggy owns Squadron Energy, which is under the Tattarang group, and it's independent to FMG AFAIK.

 

[basilio]

Market will be very ugly this morning - and probably a lot longer.

I wonder if Twiggy will start buying FMG again ? He has the deepest pockets and the most skin in the game. Has done it before as well

 

[againsthegrain]

I remember buying fmg at 14c during covid and it was great buy with a almost instant rebound... this time however tempting... maybe

 

[divs4ever]

Market will be very ugly this morning - and probably a lot longer.

I wonder if Twiggy will start buying FMG again ? He has the deepest pockets and the most skin in the game. Has done it before as well

worse .. i bought some .. 10 cents ( a share more than i intended but in i am )

my pockets aren't so deep , but there is room to buy more lower if that happens

bring on the shorters my next target is $12.75

 

[TimeISmoney]

worse .. i bought some .. 10 cents ( a share more than i intended but in i am )

my pockets aren't so deep , but there is room to buy more lower if that happens

bring on the shorters my next target is $12.75

Hit $13.18 this morning, anything is possible now. I'd say this is another dead cat bounce.

 

[rcw1]

Good evening

Chart update:

Have an order in for 13 bucks. See what happens next...


Holding

Kind regards
rcw1

 

[divs4ever]

Hit $13.18 this morning, anything is possible now. I'd say this is another dead cat bounce.

yes i hit the wrong key and bought @ $13.54 ( instead of $13.44 )

but sub $14 is a fair long term price for FMG , so i bought some and hope ( Twiggy can still trickle out some divs )

obviously the big money is playing games here , maybe i can take a few more tiny nibbles in the coming months and average down some more

i expect all sorts of analysis and noise here , this reminds me of BSL where the traders had it trapped below $1 ( and management decided on a cap. raise and a share consolidation , to get it away from the penny-stock traders )

if this goes sub $10 expects all sorts of shenanigans ( hoping Twiggy can't squeeze the shorts )

but long term , i am will to take the risk ( small nibble at a time )

Have an order in for 13 bucks. See what happens next...

looks probable , too many big wallets love shorting FMG

good luck

 

[rcw1]

yes i hit the wrong key and bought @ $13.54 ( instead of $13.44 )

Silly sausage ...

... but sub $14 is a fair long term price for FMG , so i bought some and hope ( Twiggy can still trickle out some divs )

3 weeks ago rcw1 thought below deck of $16 was a good price ): Just goes to show how quick things change bloke ... in this game. Bizarre really.

Have a nice week.

Kind regards

rcw1

 

[divs4ever]

well last week i was dreaming sub $14

i can't reaally complain when i got that even with fumbling

 

[Value Collector]

I remember buying fmg at 14c during covid and it was great buy with a almost instant rebound... this time however tempting... maybe

I think your memory is a bit foggy. Fmg was $12 when covid hit and bottomed at around $9.

 

[againsthegrain]

I think your memory is a bit foggy. Fmg was $12 when covid hit and bottomed at around $9.

yeah it is a bit of a blurr maybe it was just right after covid, there was a moment it touched 14 then rebounded pretty quick.. ohh seems like its done a slight bounce now

06/10/21 was the date found it in my trade history, yeah after peak covid

 

[divs4ever]

i bought FMG as low as $14.20 in September 2021 , if that is any guide ( it could easily have gone lower around that time ),in 2022 i was buying between $17 and $19,45

so my recent buy was nicely below my previous cheapest buy

 

[IFocus]

Will start buying now down to what ever just paid $14.04 still early days, in this environment sub $10 is possible IMHO.

 

[eskys]

All good if we were in a stable environment. Given what we already know, is it too risky to make an attempt in the hope that we can make a few bucks? Is it worth the gamble now?