FMG - Fortescue Ltd

Warren Buffet II · 12 October 2008

Let's have a look at the numbers:

They got 201 millions for shipping 1.66 million tonnes (201/1.66=121) and
and got 800 millions for shipping 8.4 million tonnes (800/8.4=95)

That means that before june they made 121 in average and then from June they are making 95.

Now, the dollar have drop 30% since, that means that instead of 95 they are now making 95x(1-30%)= 66.5

And then the iron ore prices have drop another 30%, so that means 66.5x(1-30%) = 46.55

Now they are shipping what 40 million tonnes 40x(46.55)=1.8 billion dollars.
Goal is 80 million tonnes 80x(46.55)=3.6 billion dollars.

Can they make a profit with that revenue, I doubt it, I believe they will generate a huge loss (around 2 billlion in my opinion).

WBII

Warren Buffet II · 12 October 2008

agro said:
nothing at FMG has changed, its only the market conditions which will recover, no ifs about it

Nothing has changed ??

I'll give a couple of things that have changed for FMG
1) AUD
2) Commodity prices
3) Demand
4) Can't rise money for more expansions

Want some more?

skyQuake · 12 October 2008

Sure nothing about the stock itself has changed. But Global macro has changed. Future earnings are now far less certain... Everything is being factored in...
eg. Baosteel and co just cut steel production

agro · 12 October 2008

Warren Buffet II said:
Let's have a look at the numbers:

They got 201 millions for shipping 1.66 million tonnes (201/1.66=121) and
and got 800 millions for shipping 8.4 million tonnes (800/8.4=95)

That means that before june they made 121 in average and then from June they are making 95.

Now, the dollar have drop 30% since, that means that instead of 95 they are now making 95x(1-30%)= 66.5

And then the iron ore prices have drop another 30%, so that means 66.5x(1-30%) = 46.55

Now they are shipping what 40 million tonnes 40x(46.55)=1.8 billion dollars.
Goal is 80 million tonnes 80x(46.55)=3.6 billion dollars.

Can they make a profit with that revenue, I doubt it, I believe they will generate a huge loss (around 2 billlion in my opinion).

WBII

first of all, all contracts are settled in US$

secondly, any profits are tax-free and offset losses

lets not forget FMG's assets, FMG has a larger tenement acreage across WA than BHP+RIO combined

i doubt the chinese would be investing in something they were not keen on, they have already subscribed to preference shares, contracts for next 12 years etc,

alright lets bring up MGX scenario - but how much are they shipping out? only a couple million tonnes

i am probably wasting my time , but to each his own, invest in what you believe i say

Trembling Hand · 12 October 2008

agro said:
what are these stocks that aren't in a free fall?

Xactly my point agro. That's why there is no need to be in the market now.

agro said:
are people going to bag BHP and RIO too like they do with FMG?

THEY ARE. They are all falling.

agro said:
no ifs about it

We all hope so. Only diff is most are doing the smart thing and taking a small loss on the chin, standing aside and waiting till its clear.

Captain G · 12 October 2008

One thing that may happen with these low FMG prices is the Chinese may make take over bids. China is cashed up, so I reckon they may go on a buying spree on many of our resource stocks, if they do it would signal a bottom.

agro · 12 October 2008

Captain G said:
One thing that may happen with these low FMG prices is the Chinese may make take over bids. China is cashed up, so I reckon they may go on a buying spree on many of our resource stocks, if they do it would signal a bottom.

that is one reason to hold imo, twiggy was quiet willing to sell to baosteel back in may http://www.businessspectator.com.au...tescue-shares-Andrew-Forre-EN8GU?OpenDocument

MGX deny t/o speculation - read somewhere in this thread..

China invested a large stake in murchison recently ..

not to mention swann allowed foreign investment now in our aussie companies

expect it to boom if thats the case

jet328 · 12 October 2008

Warren Buffet II said:
That means that before june they made 121 in average and then from June they are making 95.

Now, the dollar have drop 30% since, that means that instead of 95 they are now making 95x(1-30%)= 66.5

And then the iron ore prices have drop another 30%, so that means 66.5x(1-30%) = 46.55

I'm no FMG fan & have never owned, but this is absolute rubbish

I'd suggest learning some basic maths (& english) before trying to analyse companies.

How does a falling AUD decrease the amount they receive in sales? Iron ore contracts are set in US DOLLARS (like most commodities). If the AUD falls, they receive more AUD's for each tonne.

Learn the basics first

Frankhalo · 12 October 2008

Unfortunately Jet we need to put up with the Wally postings during this financial crisis along with their down ramps.

But I don’t need to tell you that.

When I hear it from Fortescue that there is a problem I’ll take note, as I stated before product going out, funds coming in. If anyone can prove this is not the case please post the facts.

PS. FMG is not MGX, chalk and cheese to compare these two IO plays.

nunthewiser · 12 October 2008

Frankhalo said:
PS. FMG is not MGX, chalk and cheese to compare these two IO plays.

darn skippy there m8 MGX been posting record profits year after year for the last 3 years(maybelonger)also cashflow positive bud.lol fmg aint even in the same timezone

Frankhalo · 12 October 2008

nunthewiser said:
darn skippy there m8 MGX been posting record profits year after year for the last 3 years(maybelonger)also cashflow positive bud.lol fmg aint even in the same timezone

Mount Gibson Iron Limited (Mount Gibson) production and sales performance for the first quarter of the financial year was very strong with 1.432 Mt being shipped comprising 712 kt of Lump and 720 kt of Fine ore. IO must be coming to port in Tonka trucks and going to China in speed boats at this rate.

Yep chalk and cheese

nunthewiser · 12 October 2008

Frankhalo said:
Mount Gibson Iron Limited (Mount Gibson) production and sales performance for the first quarter of the financial year was very strong with 1.432 Mt being shipped comprising 712 kt of Lump and 720 kt of Fine ore. IO must be coming to port in Tonka trucks and going to China in speed boats at this rate.

Yep chalk and cheese

lol i give up . seems that you guys prefer to ignore what i try and point out and replace it with something shiny instead ..... scroll back through my posts here and you will see what im talking about ..good luck with your holdings

agro · 12 October 2008

nunthewiser said:
lol i give up . seems that you guys prefer to ignore what i try and point out and replace it with something shiny instead ..... scroll back through my posts here and you will see what im talking about ..good luck with your holdings

Frankhalo is spot on,

you do realize that in the first year of production FMG has shipped more than MGX don't you?

ignorance is bliss

FMG is on the same level of RIO as far as IO is concerned

nunthewiser · 12 October 2008

agro said:
Frankhalo is spot on,

you do realize that in the first year of production FMG has shipped more than MGX don't you?

ignorance is bliss

FMG is on the same level of RIO as far as IO is concerned

ROFLMAO .ya got me .i vowed not to post here again then that funny gag made me have to .....
LOL dear rampers .. um the fact of thew matter IS FMG made a massive loss no matter how many gigatons they shipping dears.
MGX made new rtecord breaking profits .
ya just dont get it
um dont matter how big or small the bizzness is , ITS THE BOTTOM LINE THAT COUNTS
make losess long enuff and ya fold .SIMPLE girls and boys
MY point was re post earlier WAS mgx makes money and cash flow positive .
fmg DOESENT .

might hire a translator next time

and seriously IF you guys still dont get my drift after ALL my posts here re debt , contracts , profits ,losses well good luck to yas it cements my view earlier regarding the fact syndrome

anyways please dont compell me to reply by giving me a giggle again and i promise just to read and not post in this thread

lol gawd bless oztrailia is all this nun got left to say

agro · 12 October 2008

nunthewiser said:
ROFLMAO .ya got me .i vowed not to post here again then that funny gag made me have to .....
LOL dear rampers .. um the fact of thew matter IS FMG made a massive loss no matter how many gigatons they shipping dears.
MGX made new rtecord breaking profits .
ya just dont get it
um dont matter how big or small the bizzness is , ITS THE BOTTOM LINE THAT COUNTS
make losess long enuff and ya fold .SIMPLE girls and boys
MY point was re post earlier WAS mgx makes money and cash flow positive .
fmg DOESENT .

might hire a translator next time

and seriously IF you guys still dont get my drift after ALL my posts here re debt , contracts , profits ,losses well good luck to yas it cements my view earlier regarding the fact syndrome

anyways please dont compell me to reply by giving me a giggle again and i promise just to read and not post in this thread

lol gawd bless oztrailia is all this nun got left to say

you are correct in that regard, but you do understand that when they achieve the expansion they will be literally raking it in?

but its always good to hear opposing views

maybe you could shed some light on the positives? e.g. how twiggy got the project up and running in 2 years (how long it take BHP/RIO??), do u think he will call it quits now

chops_a_must · 12 October 2008

agro said:
do u think he will call it quits now

It's more than possible.

What did he do with Murrin Murrin?

I'm sure if he looks like getting nothing, shareholders interests will be high on the priority list.

agro · 12 October 2008

chops_a_must said:
It's more than possible.

What did he do with Murrin Murrin?

I'm sure if he looks like getting nothing, shareholders interests will be high on the priority list.

i don't think twiggy had a 36% stake in Anaconda.. like he does with FMG

+ it was the other executives who shafted him

chops_a_must · 12 October 2008

agro said:
i don't think twiggy had a 36% stake in Anaconda.. like he does with FMG

+ it was the other executives who shafted him

Yes yes, poor him. He owned 9% of the company. A lot of investors were left with next to nothing as he drove the company into the ground, whilst over promising and under performing. Sound familiar?

IFocus · 12 October 2008

IFocus said:
Guys in bull markets you can price a stock any way you want but in bear markets company's are priced on risk.

Below is the chart, this is reality, the bias currently is to the down side.

I understand you are holders and its not fun right now........

Guys below the 1st chart I posted before shows the trend is down

The 2nd chart is current the trend is still down so I figure the above still stands

.

sammy84 · 12 October 2008

I think it would be very hard to find a stock at the moment with a positive trend line, therefore I am cutting FMG some slack at the moment...only wished I bought on Friday rather than 2 weeks ago

FMG - Fortescue Ltd

Warren Buffet II

Warren Buffet II

skyQuake

agro

Trembling Hand

Can be found on the bid

Captain G

agro

jet328

Frankhalo

Casino, theres a better choice

nunthewiser

Frankhalo

Casino, theres a better choice

nunthewiser

agro

nunthewiser

agro

chops_a_must

Printing My Own Money

agro

chops_a_must

Printing My Own Money

IFocus

You are arguing with a Galah

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