FMG - Fortescue Ltd

[nunthewiser]

I'd agree renim (fwiw lol )

There have been a few posts suggesting Andrew Forrest should have hedged etc - not sure what facts are behind those posts - but in any case , surely his future exports are in USD.

seems not too many actual holders know too many facts about the co either ........ ive asked a few questions lately regarding facts but not many seem to get answered .....must be a sign of the times where perhaps that the ppl that know the facts have a;lready jumped ship ?

 

[renim]

fmg's annual report came out last year Oct 9th I think. So it should be out shortly. I don't envy anyone writing an annual report in this climate.

hopefully fmgs annual report will clear up as much as possible, well compared to most of its peers, fmg's accounts should have higher than normal clarity (if only due simplicity of fmg's operation), just no history for operations.

i'm particulary interested in their cash, and cash flow position, if they are weak there, then there could be trouble. If they are strong there, then they are another bargain stock thats oversold.

 

[renim]

a quick comment about China.
don't underestimate their growth, their economy is fundamentally an internally driven economy not an export economy (unlike australia)
their government is able to exert a level of control that extends to people's fertility. unless you have experienced it, you can't grasp it.
yes they have many unproductive workers (my feeling is that its about 3 people in china do the work of 1 in Australia)
yes they have high corruption, but they have established and effective anti-corruption measures, unlike say India or Wollongong
Unless they do something stupid like invade Taiwan, they will continue to urbanize, industrialize and globalize.
and don't invest in anything that competes with them, long term thats a very brave move.

i know it only a story, but few stocks in Australia are as exposed to China as FMG. and a low dollar helps further.

its also brave to buy falling daggers against the market. but someone is?

 

[cruise61]

Hi, there

can anyone help me out? what's going on FMG price?

today's price is half of my buy price, how can I do? hold or buy again?

**** WALL STREET

Hi newbie , up to you my friend.

I have two lots of fmg some high and some at this bargain price

I refuse to accept loss on my high priced stocks as i truly believe they are woth what i paid, its just not in my nature to lose so the higher ones will stay with me till they get back up , might be awhile but they will get back there.

Just need to remember the market will rebound as it has on all other occasions of this nature ,how long will it takes well toss a coin :0)

I dont need the money in a hurry so i can safely sit and wait ,so i guess its up to you do you need the cash or are you able to sit it out??

Mind you there is the possability of FMG colapsing but i cant see this happening .

Lots of pannick selling going on but i see this as a great time to invest in long term shares ))))

Hope this helps

Roll on Monday the ride has just begun :0)

 

[Prospector]

a quick comment about China.
don't underestimate their growth, their economy is fundamentally an internally driven economy not an export economy (unlike australia)
their government is able to exert a level of control that extends to people's fertility.

Yup, that is exactly true; 80% internal and 20% external. Which is why the resource stocks are sitting well at the moment and have been oversold if the reason for the selling has been concerns about growth. And I suspect they may hold the cash key to solving some of the debt issues at the moment.

 

[michael_selway]

Hi newbie , up to you my friend.

I have two lots of fmg some high and some at this bargain price

I refuse to accept loss on my high priced stocks as i truly believe they are woth what i paid, its just not in my nature to lose so the higher ones will stay with me till they get back up , might be awhile but they will get back there.

Just need to remember the market will rebound as it has on all other occasions of this nature ,how long will it takes well toss a coin :0)

I dont need the money in a hurry so i can safely sit and wait ,so i guess its up to you do you need the cash or are you able to sit it out??

Mind you there is the possability of FMG colapsing but i cant see this happening .

Lots of pannick selling going on but i see this as a great time to invest in long term shares ))))

Hope this helps

Roll on Monday the ride has just begun :0)

Hm yeah Monday will be an intersting day

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2008 2009 2010 2011
EPS -155.3 45.4 95.8 114.9
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,,24472563-20142,00.html

FEARS heightened yesterday that China's demand for iron ore was slowing.

Mount Gibson Iron announced that its customers in the economic powerhouse wanted to delay shipments.

The news sent Mount Gibson's shares down 24.24 per cent, or 28c, to 87c.

In a note to the Australian Stock Exchange, managing director Luke Tonkin said customer and iron ore sector analysis indicated a slowdown in demand for iron ore in China as a result of economic uncertainty and tightening credit facilities. He said this had led to reductions in steel production and the significant build-up of iron ore stockpiles at Chinese ports.

The comments came as the Perth miner received requests from several customers to delay hematite ore shipments scheduled for the second quarter of the financial year.

"Mount Gibson has no obligation to agree to any of the relevant customers' requests," Mr Tonkin said.

"In this regard, each customer has entered into binding long-term ore sales agreements and is continually obligated to take delivery of the shipments allocated to it in the second quarter."

Its customers include Chinese steel mill Rizhao Steel Holding Group, Citic Australia Commodity Trading and Marubeni.

It is understood 70 per cent of its customers asked for a shipment delay of one to three months, but it is not clear if most are steel mills or traders, who are said to be struggling to secure customers.

According to Mount Gibson, which recently had to deny market speculation that it was involved in takeover talks, it would attempt to reach an acceptable accommodation in respect to its long-term shipping schedules with contracted customers.

The spot price of iron ore is also playing a key role in market sentiment.

It is presently close to long-term contract prices and analysts expect it to fall below contract prices in weeks.

Industry insiders said iron ore giants BHP and Rio were yet to experience any pushback from China, because they had long-term contracts with the big players.

Fortescue Metals, which has denied market speculation it has two shiploads of iron ore sitting idle in a port in China, said it had not received any requests for cancellations or delays.

"Sure there is a slowdown -- it would be silly to say there isn't when we are in an enormous financial disaster," operations executive director Graeme Rowley said.

He said the news from Mount Gibson showed the market would become selective.

"China is still keen to have a competitive iron ore supply industry," he said.

UBS analyst Glyn Lawcock said the steel industry in China had slowed demand for iron ore and that other juniors could be affected, but it depended on whom their offtake agreements were with.

"It all depends on who is the customer at the end of the day," he said.

Earlier this week, analysts warned that the iron ore sector was not immune to the global credit crisis.

Despite most predicting a 10 per cent increase in iron ore for the 2009 Asian contracts, there was also speculation there would then be a 20 per cent decrease in 2010 and a 10 per cent fall in 2011.

 

[agro]

1 - people are only thinking of the here and now, not the long term, ok china can be manipulative but that's not to say other emerging economies will need I/O.

2 - FMG is much bigger than MGX. also, FMG does not have just Iron Ore - if i can recall they have other base metal projects in NZ.

3 - MGX deny t/o talks - i call bs .. i smell Vale,

forget the speculators, and know the facts

this is the same as Oil, they speculate it to goto $200.. its now $70, same with IO, atm they speculate down, whats the best it goes up in the future once the turmoil is over?


good chance i think
anyhow, thats all i have to say,., i am watching for a good entry as I don't hold (i do hold other stocks in coal / resources which i need to sell) but FMG is close to what i entered at July last year

 

[nunthewiser]

1 - forget the speculators, and know the facts

um .......how come then when all my questions ask for facts all you FMG worshippers beat around the bush and spew allsortsa sunshine and lollipops and forget to answer MY questions .

please scroll back and answer at will

blessya

 

[agro]

um .......how come then when all my questions ask for facts all you FMG worshippers beat around the bush and spew allsortsa sunshine and lollipops and forget to answer MY questions .

please scroll back and answer at will

blessya

are you looking to buy in to FMG? do you care? what is your motive? surly, there must be a motive if you continue to look for facts? maybe ring the company or search google, cause i doubt the validity of answers you receive here are good..

why can't you find another company on these boards that are, for a guaranteed fact, in a worse of position than FMG (e.g. alco, centro, babcock)??

 

[chops_a_must]

Yup, that is exactly true; 80% internal and 20% external. Which is why the resource stocks are sitting well at the moment and have been oversold if the reason for the selling has been concerns about growth. And I suspect they may hold the cash key to solving some of the debt issues at the moment.

You do realise that a steel maker in china has recently gone belly up don't you?

That is real, and despite all the noise about demand etc. it is a material impact on the situation.

It has nothing to do with concerns about growth, it's about actually having a customer to sell to that can actually pay them.

 

[nunthewiser]

are you looking to buy in to FMG? do you care? what is your motive? surly, there must be a motive if you continue to look for facts? maybe ring the company or search google, cause i doubt the validity of answers you receive here are good..

why can't you find another company on these boards that are, for a guaranteed fact, in a worse of position than FMG (e.g. alco, centro, babcock)??

no not looking for a buy on FMG at present , trade it yeah why not tradethehype so many sing on about , draws punters .why not eh .all about the buck ..my questions are in relation to other iron ore co,s that i have looked at and hold , im trying to gage a feeling on fundamentals verses hype and therefoream asking HOLDERS these questions to see if anyone ACTUALL researched the nuts and bolts OR were just buyers because "ya should never let the facts get in the way of a good story"syndrome .

now please if you cant anser said questions please do not use my enquiries for a springboard to let off steam because you personally know squat about what im saying

have a great day chief
blessya
an inquistive nun

 

[agro]

no not looking for a buy on FMG at present , trade it yeah why not tradethehype so many sing on about , draws punters .why not eh .all about the buck ..my questions are in relation to other iron ore co,s that i have looked at and hold , im trying to gage a feeling on fundamentals verses hype and therefoream asking HOLDERS these questions to see if anyone ACTUALL researched the nuts and bolts OR were just buyers because "ya should never let the facts get in the way of a good story"syndrome .

now please if you cant anser said questions please do not use my enquiries for a springboard to let off steam because you personally know squat about what im saying

have a great day chief
blessya
an inquistive nun

have you tried maybe to target the holders of those companies then?

what difference does it make whether holders researched the nuts and bolts?

i can't answer your questions because i am not a credible source. neither are can any other holder on these boards, unless they have ties to the company

 

[Prospector]

You do realise that a steel maker in china has recently gone belly up don't you?

A steel maker? That would be ONE of 264 steel makers in China, which produces one-third of the world's steel?

 

[nunthewiser]

have you tried maybe to target the holders of those companies then?

what difference does it make whether holders researched the nuts and bolts?

i can't answer your questions because i am not a credible source. neither are can any other holder on these boards, unless they have ties to the company

1. um im in a FMG thread,that should make sense.

2. refer to my last post explaining why im asking.

3. rubbish, the answers to my questions are in FMG reports and figured as holders you would have read them .

4. why the defensiveness to simple question or is the answer to my point 2 already answered and im responding to those that bought based on wishful thinking while the story was good ?

5. please convince me otherwise by stating some factual answers to my questions

6 avaniceday

7. you dont have to answer my questions as obviously they are beyond your powers of research

8. i will wait for someone that has actually researched the company to answer my questions


cheers

an inquisitve nun

 

[chops_a_must]

A steel maker? That would be ONE of 264 steel makers in China, which produces one-third of the world's steel?

Mmm ok...

Steel makers under pressure, reports of iron-ore backing up on the docks, customers not wanting to take receivership of shipments... hmmm....

It's not exactly hard to join the dots at this stage.


What does astound me agro, is that a lot of holders here seem not to know the position of some absolutely crucial factors in the current climate. Instead leaving it as a faith based call in Twiggy, who is a renowned shyster who has been seen in the past to ignore risk management totally, with the ultimate burden being lumped on investors. I hope it isn't Murrin Murrin all over again.

 

[Frankhalo]

FMG bottom line is ships are leaving port with product and cash flow is coming in, sounds like a good business model to me. Not to many stella stocks out there on the old ASX lately and FMG has been whipped around but I'm happy to top up at this levels which in my opinion are bargain basement. Target production of 80mta for 2009 for @2.68 per share..


Some facts: 2007-2008

By the end of June, 1.66 million tonnes had been shipped to Fortescue's Chinese customers, generating $201 million in revenue and enabling Fortescue to report a maiden trading profit of $72 million for the June year.


The company made a net loss of $2.52 billion for the 2008 financial year ended June 30, compared to a loss of $192.36 million in the previous year.

June 2008 - present

Executive director Graeme Rowley said the company so far had shipped 8.4 million tonnes to 26 Chinese customers, including Baosteel and other top ten steelmakers, bringing in $800 million in revenue.

May 15th 2008 START UP. FMG does not stand for Free Minerals Group, Sept 2009 report IMO will be brilliant. Yes their is debt, this is not a sand pit in the desert.
"Fortescue's fiscal 2009 earnings may rise 14 percent from JPMorgan's forecast to A$1.7 billion ($1.2 billion)", and this isn't pocket money folks.

Frank

 

[Warren Buffet II]

Mmm ok...

Steel makers under pressure, reports of iron-ore backing up on the docks, customers not wanting to take receivership of shipments... hmmm....

It's not exactly hard to join the dots at this stage.


What does astound me agro, is that a lot of holders here seem not to know the position of some absolutely crucial factors in the current climate. Instead leaving it as a faith based call in Twiggy, who is a renowned shyster who has been seen in the past to ignore risk management totally, with the ultimate burden being lumped on investors. I hope it isn't Murrin Murrin all over again.

Chop_a_must, my friend, if a donkey does not want to hear it won't mate.

Let the donkeys keep running to the abism

WBII

 

[Frankhalo]

Thanks Warren and Chops, good to see the Australian tall poppy chopping is still alive and FMG holders need to be saved from evil Andrew Forrest. Tell me Warren, chops what stocks you would advise on in these dire times for a mere donkey like me.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Tell me Warren, chops what stocks you would advise on in these dire times for a mere donkey like me.

May I throw my in.

Ones that aren't in free fall would be a good start.

There is time to be risk seeking and times to be risk adverse. Clearly risk adverse rules now. And yes its getting closer to the time to take risk. But no one knows if that was Friday, next Friday or late next year.

The smashing of the AUD is a clear sign that the big money have left the Aussie market for now. Stock don't rise without them. And they don't go back to old highs in a hurry when they return. Clearly there will be plenty of time to ride another trend when and IF it starts. If being the danger now.

 

[agro]

May I throw my in.

Ones that aren't in free fall would be a good start.

There is time to be risk seeking and times to be risk adverse. Clearly risk adverse rules now. And yes its getting closer to the time to take risk. But no one knows if that was Friday, next Friday or late next year.

The smashing of the AUD is a clear sign that the big money have left the Aussie market for now. Stock don't rise without them. And they don't go back to old highs in a hurry when they return. Clearly there will be plenty of time to ride another trend when and IF it starts. If being the danger now.

what are these stocks that aren't in a free fall?

compare FMG with BHP and RIO.. all three are down,

FMG is equivalent to $26 (pre-share split), BHP $27..

are people going to bag BHP and RIO too like they do with FMG?

or do they fall on the argument that both these miners are more diversified etc etc..

prices are relative to each other, nothing at FMG has changed, its only the market conditions which will recover, no ifs about it