FMG - Fortescue Ltd

[wildthing]

Reported cash reseverse up $432 mil to $624 mil this quarter
Now 52 ore ships now departed since the first one.
Some customers prepaying shipments
Great position with their Chinese customers due BHP/Rio/Vales efforts to push chinese to pay more.
Read the quarterly report for more info
I am holding
GO FMG

 

[gav]

I recently bought FMG just below 4, sold 4.23, bought back Friday 2.77, sold today 3.06, and just bought back 2.84, now 2.90...hoping for a close above 3! :

Hi MFP...

What plan did you use to buy and sell? Did you have set indicators? Or just went by what you felt was a good buy/sell price?

 

[agro]

Reported cash reseverse up $432 mil to $624 mil this quarter
Now 52 ore ships now departed since the first one.
Some customers prepaying shipments
Great position with their Chinese customers due BHP/Rio/Vales efforts to push chinese to pay more.
Read the quarterly report for more info
I am holding
GO FMG

you read the ann of former Oxiana / OZL and RIO directors join FMG?

i wouldn't be least surprised if OZL and FMG merge

that would give BHP something to worry about

 

[agro]

13-October-08 by AAP




Fortescue Metals Group Ltd says its quest to become the alternative supplier of iron ore to the Chinese market has been boosted by jostling between rivals Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton, and by moves by Brazil's Vale to push up prices.

In its September quarterly report, released today, Fortescue says that the "Chinese market's motivation to encourage the emergence of Fortescue as a strong new alternative seaborne supplier of iron ore has gained further momentum in the last quarter".

Fortescue said this was prompted by concerns over BHP Billiton's proposed takeover of Rio Tinto Ltd, and an attempt by Vale to increase annual benchmark iron ore prices halfway through the year.

This had "caused many of our customers to reconfirm to us the commitment of the Chinese market to the ongoing emergence of a fourth major seaborne supplier", Fortescue said.

Fortescue shares gained 28 cents, or 10.45 per cent, to $2.96 by 1300 AEDT.

The company, which operates in the Pilbara region of Western Australia, reported cash at the end of September of $624 million - an increase of $432 million on the previous quarter.

Fortescue shipped its first ore to Chinese steel mills in May and had loaded 8.536 million tonnes onto 52 ships by the end of September.

The company said it expected to be operating at an annual production rate of 45 million tonnes by the end of the year before ramping up to 55 million tonnes from April 2009.

 

[mfp]

Hi MFP...

What plan did you use to buy and sell? Did you have set indicators? Or just went by what you felt was a good buy/sell price?

Gav,

I don't use indicators. I basically entered each time when it appeared completeley oversold and was due for a bounce. The exit at 4.23 and re-entry at 2.77, without being burnt in between, was probably luck. I exited at 3.06 today as I was fairly certain it had run too far this morning, so decided to lock in a decent profit. It ran to 3.18, but one thing i never do is chase a stock higher after i've sold. I waited for the pull back, back in at 2.84, it fell to 2.74, but closed stronger. I always keep in mind the current price action in relation to the open, high and low and take notice of the close. In other words I keep a mental picture of the candle stick which is forming for the day and use it to guide my trading. From past experience and some knowledge of candle stick charting, i've learnt that the close just above the day's low with the spike up to 3.18 is actually a bullish reversal signal, most would probably disagree. The capitulation Friday also gave me confidence that we had hit some sort of interim bottom. Only time will tell if my re-entry is justified.

 

[renim]

In April's 2008 Australia's Mining Monthly, the first 2 names in 'Mining's top leaders' are Owen Hegarty and Andrew Forrest. While media articles should be taken with a grain of salt, the appointment of Hegarty to FMG will set tongues wagging in mining circles, and portends FMG a bright future.

FMG's quarterly report, gave FMG cash on hand a boost to approx. $600m. And stated that the low Aud was beneficial (as did Bloomberg). Although development is still burning cash faster than earnings.

However, other stocks have been even more punished by what i call irrational pessimism, and a PE ratio of 2 is available elsewhere, for current dividend paying stock!

 

[skyQuake]

The PE ratio of 2 is based on old earnings... Future PE forecasts don't look so good.
Anyways, FMG has pretty much gone parabolic. Don't think today's price action constitutes a proper bounce but its gonna come sooner or later. Note volume is still going up; higher even than friday's.

 

[cruise61]

Bit off a bounce back today ,much less than i predicted but nether the less a profit.

Andrew on tv tonight letting everyone know they are up and running and doing well.

Financials looking good .

Still think this is one off the best around at this price

Roll on Tuesday let the ride begin again

PS Good to see Australia lead the way to recovery today ;0)

 

[Sean K]

Bit off a bounce back today ,much less than i predicted but nether the less a profit.

Andrew on tv tonight letting everyone know they are up and running and doing well.

Financials looking good.

Still think this is one off the best around at this price

Roll on Tuesday let the ride begin again

PS Good to see Australia lead the way to recovery today ;0)

cruise, how is the likely fall in demand and prices for IO going to effect the income and growth profile of FMG?

Also, what do you mean 'financials looking good'. Can you expand on this?

I think most long term holders would like to see some stability in the share price now as opposed to going on some wild ride. This is one fugly chart.

 

[cruise61]

cruise, how is the likely fall in demand and prices for IO going to effect the income and growth profile of FMG?

Also, what do you mean 'financials looking good'. Can you expand on this?

I think most long term holders would like to see some stability in the share price now as opposed to going on some wild ride. This is one fugly chart.

Hi Kennas yes a very ugly chart ,looks alot like BHP and RIO,s Charts :0)

There is no confirmation demand has slowed if there is please show me where?, at this stage China has asked to delay shipments to clear already stockpiled docks ,Lets face facts Chinas Growth and the rest of the world only increases the demand for steel , the Fact they have no more room doesnt mean they have stockpiled an endless quantity off ore and once it reduces and it will ,they will pay anything for it )

Prices have probaly come back down to a realistic level , Vale had way too much control over the market but that seems to have ended and things have stabalized rather than go on a sea saw ride.

Financials for last qtr from FMG look good because they are finally making money and spending there own money not investors :0)

There forcast off 3.6 billiion in sales is on target with the first quarter sales over 800ml

They have alot of Chinese contracts and i believe with their Chinese Board they will steel alot off buisiness away from Vale and Rio in the next 5 years .

FMG are not a quick get rich company for its shareholders but a long term investment and personally i couldnt dream off a better starting price for a company off FMG size than it is now .

Hope you have a good Tuesday and enjoy the ride

 

[Sean K]

There is no confirmation demand has slowed if there is please show me where?, at this stage China has asked to delay shipments to clear already stockpiled docks ,Lets face facts Chinas Growth and the rest of the world only increases the demand for steel , the Fact they have no more room doesnt mean they have stockpiled an endless quantity off ore and once it reduces and it will ,they will pay anything for it )

The reason all the IO and coal stocks have been savaged is because of the perception growth is slowing in China and it will have a material effect of future earnings.

I'm a big believer in stronger for longer in Chindia over the LONG term, but short term I'm not so sure.


Chinese steel cut worries Aussie mining companies
Matthew Stevens | October 14, 2008

FIVE Chinese steel mills have revealed plans to cut production by up to 20 per cent over October.

Evidence has emerged that real-economy stresses are being created in emerging markets by the Western credit crisis.

The prospect of wide-ranging and unexpectedly deep cuts in Chinese steel production have surprised Australia's major iron ore and coal producers and fed fears that China is more closely "coupled" to the global economy than anyone has wanted to believe.

While confidence in China's medium and long-term economic prospects remains very strong, there are fears of a material drift in demand for Australia's key raw materials over coming months.

 

[gav]

FIVE Chinese steel mills have revealed plans to cut production by up to 20 per cent over October.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isnt there over 100 chinese steel mills? If only 5 are cutting production by 20%, that is a pretty small amount! Yes there may be a slowdown in growth in China, but its still growing rapidly!

 

[rthakkar]

Go Fortescue!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Currently up by 50%!!!

The announcement made yesterday was much liked by the market and timing couldnt have been any better!

 

[adobee]

wow i am sitting exactly even now.. between the parcels I bought at $5 on the way down and the parcels I bought at $3 ... I thought it was value at $5 so $4 still looks pretty low to me.. I wouldnt be surprised to see $6+ by the end of the day..

 

[sanj]

As much as i would like $6 mate...seems a little farfetched to me! Alot of short term buyers would want to start collecting some returns...specially for what they would have got them 4

 

[gav]

Just my luck. The last few times its jumped up just after open, it always loses some of its gains later in the day (eg. yesterday). After holding since May, I SOLD this morning at $3.53 at a 60% loss, hoping to buy back in cheaper this afternoon.

 

[cruise61]

As much as i would like $6 mate...seems a little farfetched to me! Alot of short term buyers would want to start collecting some returns...specially for what they would have got them 4

Yeh agreed ,love this stock but 6.00 today isnt a reality sorry guys.

Lots of short termers today but only takes 1 big investor who wants in to swoop up all them shares .

Either way paid my mortgage today

Let the ride continue

 

[njc.corp]

wow i am sitting exactly even now.. between the parcels I bought at $5 on the way down and the parcels I bought at $3 ... I thought it was value at $5 so $4 still looks pretty low to me.. I wouldnt be surprised to see $6+ by the end of the day..

How are u working out that it will or might get to $6.00 today?

what method or figures are u using?

thanks

Nick--

 

[njc.corp]

Just my luck. The last few times its jumped up just after open, it always loses some of its gains later in the day (eg. yesterday). After holding since May, I SOLD this morning at $3.53 at a 60% loss, hoping to buy back in cheaper this afternoon.

gav-look at it from this view-if the dow last night would have been -800 points none of this would have happen?

well i think so as i am having a had time trying to see any stock not doing good today

u win some and u dont

is this a big gain before we go south again?

i am happy to sit back and watch

good to see the fmg holders get some money back-

Hope all goes well and everyone makes a good earn--

Thanks

Nick--

 

[adobee]

I am using a very complex method of graphs and parabolas, whilst factoring in the market cap, market confidence, and the other guys greed.. If it can close at 4.4ish it will only be 36% required to get to $6 and if the world markets continue to rally..