FMG - Fortescue Ltd

[njc.corp]

Ummm.. isn't that a contradiction hollowpoint? Will you only realise losses if FMG goes bankrupt or into liquidation? If it plummets and hovers at half its value for 10 years will you still not contemplate selling for a loss? I struggle to see the logic in your buy and hold approach REGARDLESS of what is happening with FMG or the market.

Okay-what i gather is that he is ready to go down if it heads south

but he will not sell at a loss-

if so its no one's place to tell him how to trade-

but i must say i know a couple of traders like that-their motto is all in or nothing-

wether thats right or wrong-well i dont know

But the ? i see out of this is what happens if it stays south hollowpoint say for example 6-12 months will u still hang in their or will u say stuff it i am out of this one and look for something else?

only a question nothing less so don't think i am having a go at u -

Thanks

Nick--

 

[impala_group]

I think i'm holding as well, at least until the waters calm down a little bit. I'm back in the green today so i take that as a positive.

 

[hollowpoint]

Questionall_42, you use your strategy, and I will use mine

but thanks for your valued feedback, even though it doesn't really involve FMG but just a generalised comment you are making about my strategy... but thanks anyway.

 

[hollowpoint]

Okay-what i gather is that he is ready to go down if it heads south

but he will not sell at a loss-

if so its no one's place to tell him how to trade-

but i must say i know a couple of traders like that-their motto is all in or nothing-

wether thats right or wrong-well i dont know

But the ? i see out of this is what happens if it stays south hollowpoint say for example 6-12 months will u still hang in their or will u say stuff it i am out of this one and look for something else?

only a question nothing less so don't think i am having a go at u -

Thanks

Nick--

spot on! Thanks Nick.

In for a penny, in for a pound, and if it sinks, it sinks. If it takes 10 years to turn a profit, then it takes 10 years... but you know, i think we will see $15-30 per share within a year.

 

[agro]

IRON ore miner Fortescue Metals is expected to quickly achieve its ambitious production ramp-up to 55 million tonnes a year, analysts say.
Fortescue (fmg.ASX:Quote,News) yesterday announced it had reached the `project completion' stage at its Cloudbreak mine in Western Australia's Pilbara region, under the terms of its $2.7 billion bond financing, allowing it to expand and develop new projects.

The news sent Fortescue's shares 89 cents, or 10.96 per cent, higher to $9.01 at 3.18pm (AEST).
Fortescue has shipped more than three million tonnes (Mt) of iron ore since commencing exports in mid-May, with 2Mt shipped in the past four weeks.

Fortescue chief financial officer Chris Catlow told AAP recently that the company aimed to export 22Mt by December 31 and 45Mt by the end of the 2008/09 financial year.

"We hope to be at the run rate of 55 Mt during the March quarter next year,'' he said.

DJ Carmichael resource analyst James Wilson said he believed Fortescue would achieve its ramp-up goals.

"I have no doubt they'll meet their target,'' Mr Wilson said.

"They are ticking all the boxes.

"It's been quite a successful mine commissioning, particularly considering it was the biggest infrastructure project in Australia.''

Mr Catlow said the company was "the process of negotiating with various banks to allow us to have operating lease facilities in place''.

Fortescue had about $600 million in the bank at the end of the March quarter.

"Under the restrictions that we have pursuant to the senior secured notes, we can take on more debt when we reach the interest coverage ratio: our earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) has to be more than two and a half times the interest bill, and we probably won't be at that stage until either later this year or early next year,'' Mr Catlow said.

"Up until that point, we're able to take on additional operating leases.''

He said Fortescue had repaid a $200 million bridge-to-equity loan and expected to achieve EBITDA of $3.4 billion for the 2008/09 financial year.

"We've raised $3 billion, which is permanent capital and we've got $2.1 billion of (senior secured) notes, which are debts that get paid within five, seven and 10 years from when we raised them in August 2006.

"And the rest of the money was in pure equity.''

Mr Wilson said Fortescue would ``pay that back in no time once they get firing'' at a production rate of about 30Mt per annum.

"They've got quite a task juggling creditors, but in a couple of months we'll see funds going back into the bank.''

He said Fortescue's expansion was already factored into its share price.

http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,27753,24052097-462,00.html


if anyone saw the eureka report the NPV stated is between $14-$18

FMG is greatly undervalued!

 

[questionall_42]

Questionall_42, you use your strategy, and I will use mine

but thanks for your valued feedback, even though it doesn't really involve FMG but just a generalised comment you are making about my strategy... but thanks anyway.

yep - best of luck. Guess with a volatile stock in volatile times my approach has changed. enjoy the ride.

 

[Miner]

In the past I have quoted recommendations published in Compare Share from this mob about calling FMG as a SELL. I think the effect of 40% single malt has gone down a bit for him and still there is a hangover for him calling FMG from SELL to HOLD.

Probabaly he has accumulated enough of FMG now to say BUY to his clients and then will dispose off his holdings.

ANy way posting his extract for having some fun

MARK GOULOPOULOS
TOLHURST

HOLD RECOMMENDATION

Fortescue Metals Group (FMG)

We have updated our commodity price and exchange rate forecasts to reflect the increased iron ore price settlements achieved by BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto, and the stronger Australian dollar. The net effect of this is an increase in our price target for this iron ore company and a resulting upgrade from sell to hold. Should the company meet its production forecast, we feel it’s appropriately valued at current levels.

I do not know folks if I would put my money on his advice probably not but worried for those who are listening on such analysts

 

[Go Nuke]

Well i'm afraid with the market up today and FMG down, it was making me too nervous to continue holding so i closed my position for a crappy 15% gain

Still I'm happy to just have a gain than yet another loss.
Out of curiousity, what kind of % margin do people here use for a stop loss? I really need to use them

Ive decided to chase up a hot tip instead so Goodluck to those that continue to hold FMG

 

[Go Nuke]

A crappy 15% gain?! Any gain is a good gain in my books (yada, yada, yada making up the required limit)

Its not good in my eyes when i bought them around Xmas time.

If I knew what i was doing I could have made that 15% many times.

Live and learn

 

[njc.corp]

Some more news for ones that are interested-

www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=agvNrhIxkce0&refer=australia

Fortescue Considering Funding From Asian Customers, Review Says

By Rebecca Keenan

July 23 (Bloomberg) -- Fortescue Metals Group Ltd. is considering a funding package from Asian customers, including Baosteel Group Corp Ltd., for a proposed expansion of its mine in Western Australia, the Australian Financial Review reported without citing anyone.

Happy trading-

Thanks

Nick--

 

[Miner]

Folks

This is an interesting timely alert from FMG posted today and self explanatory,

I am guessing considering there is a fund raising scenario the prices will be at high at least to be higher than the price FMG is going to raise fund for next phase.

Ironically last year when they raised $650 M at $36 (?) (before split) the price was hovering at about $39 some one asked Graeme Rowley if the price would ever be available at $36 ? He grinned and said NO. Ironically soon thereafter the big slump happened and the FMG was selling at market at $22.

I wish the same immaturity from investors should not repeat now after fund is raised from ASIAN markets. We need to see green and green only.

Regards

 

[renim]

i doubt that they will go to market for more equity. they've got good cash flow, good profits, and apparently good customer relationships. more likely forward sell some ore for expansion plans contingency cash.

 

[fordxbt]

anyone else seeing the golden cross appearing on FMG's charts, around 2 weeks away ill hold off getting more packages until then

 

[renim]

an interesting read in today's smh ?? about the rio/baosteel negotiations.
+
eureka report also notes that the aussie market is shorted almost as much as the us market 4.3% vs 4.6%

 

[paulgarcia83]

whats going on over there?

I am in the U.S. and I was just wondering what is the deal with this stock last week I seen it had only opened like 2 times or was I mistaken? Either way can I get some advice on if I should hold my shares or sell? Do you think this thing will go back up anytime soon? Please someone give me something

 

[njc.corp]

Re: whats going on over there?

I am in the U.S. and I was just wondering what is the deal with this stock last week I seen it had only opened like 2 times or was I mistaken? Either way can I get some advice on if I should hold my shares or sell? Do you think this thing will go back up anytime soon? Please someone give me something

u are mistaken on fmg being opened on 2 times last week -

maybe u have some program issues with your broker-

ahmm-hold or sell=i aint going to tell u what to do with your money-

but imo i do think it will take time to go back to where we were at $10.50+ but when is that is a other million dollar question

has far as i care - i just want to see how much lower this fmg stock can go?

i have bought over 5,000 units lately on the low side-on advice that i enter at my own risk in these choppy markets-

i am looking at it for a long term point of view-

i want to see more good cash reports of profit and loss-seems its starting to come in but i need more time-

i want to see how they spend their money

i want to see if the div's are coming-

i want to see their how they go next year-if they are any where near their 44-55 mtpa

there's a lot of things that i am waiting for so i reckon its going to take time-

imo-

The past week as brought me a little back to earth- on how this choppy market can turn on u -well for me that is-

Happy tradding to all for this week--

Thanks

Nick--

 

[renim]

all quiet on the fmg front
waiting for the next expansion announcement. its still the only stock i follow with both a bullish and a confident feeling.

 

[Nick Radge]

As per post #861, we've now met the apex of the larger triangle however there is no technical evidence of a turn higher, yet. There are two positives; we seem to dropping in a descending wedge which may precede a bounce back to its origins circa $10, and, secondly, the bearish divergence which signaled this decline has unwound. No evidence of a relief rally just yet though. The larger trend is clearly corrective. Any bounce is more than likely going to be limited. New highs are not expected any time soon, if not at all this year.


This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision.

 

[ans25]

Hmm, I agree you with you except your last statement.

FMG has the potential to increase in sp very rapidly, I wouldnt discount getting to $12 high's in even 2-3 months.

I'm seriously looking to enter FMG sometime tomm, if you see someone buying about 3000 then thats me

I just think long term this can increase a lot, however it is a bit volatile for a blue chip

 

[Miner]

Looks like many of us have read the quarterly report published.
Cash position is interesting though very small considering the fund required for T100 or T200 expansion (T45 means 45 million tonnes and so on)

With the tragic death in BHP iron ore today, probably some investors will tend to buy FMG on Wednesday - my guess based on typical investors mindset and own experience. I can not prove with any scientific data unfortunately without having right crystal ball in front of me

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20080729/pdf/31bdgyqv08g96y.pdf