FMG - Fortescue Ltd

[Nick Radge]

There have been some indications of weakness over the last month. This was from July 2:

http://www.projectstreamer.com/users/reefcap/020708_fmg/020708_fmg.html

The Elliott Wave picture suggests this current decline is now a 5-wave decline meaning its the first leg of an ongoing corrective phase. Unlikely we'll see new highs for some time but probable we'll go lower eventually.



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[Miner]

Cannot believe it either.

As I've posted on other threads lately, I have finally decided that I don't understand the world anymore.

Instead of studying, investing and researching I will now dedicate my energy to watching Mad MAx films so that I will know how to survive in the future.

Hi
You are so candid about your lack of understanding about world
May be you please ask who understands the world

I am sure the brokers will lift FMG on Monday. It is now part of ASX 200 so will get support. I strongly feel that some brokers are manipulating the price Traditionally whenever FMG fell drastically it went up so let us hope

I was opportunist to buy a small parcel of FMG at $8.2 and hope it stays there for some time or rise up, Who knows when BHP is sliding down so much

 

[subaru69]

Thanks Miner,

It's good to get a slap back to reality.
Literally the only people I 'know' who invest/trade are on this site and it gets a bit lonely in the real world with no-one to bounce ideas off, esp with the market tanking. :nosympath
(In my industry, at the level I'm at, all anyone cares about is career progression. Their limit of knowledge re finances is HECS debt.)
Anyway now that I've had my whinge, back to the salt mines.

In regards to strategy with FMG I agree some averaging is the way to go, pick some up at 8 if they get there Monday. How ironic, I'm hoping the market drops.

 

[Miner]

some extract from Eureka Report

Part of this has already been reported in West Australian business page

Charlie Aitken has been the only broker who supported FMG share at its rock bottom price before the split

I personally will be interested to know his stand when formally Southern Equity starts as a wing of Bell Potter as the Head of Research of BPS has always circumspective of FMG

Extract from Eureka Report written by Charlie Aitken


In the case of Fortescue, I expect the "trigger" event to be the announcement of "project completion" this month. That announcement should also be accompanied by a statement about Fortescue's expansion plans and product shipments to date. In my view that should lead to the "buy the fact" trading response we are seeing in large-cap Australia

Fortescue has an extremely low free float of about 11%, so I would expect the short squeeze to be violent when it starts. It also surprises me that local institutions, who are structurally underweight Fortescue, are not using this period of price weakness to accumulate stock. Fortescue is the stock local institutions always forget to buy into weakness

 

[renim]

friday's fin review was also making similar noises about fmg likely announcements on project completion etc

 

[Frankhalo]

Nice

The achievement so far:

• Mine, railway and port completed
• Three million tonnes shipped, two million of those in the past four weeks
• 194 trainloads taken to port
• Twenty ships loaded and dispatched
• About $200 million already through the door by way of customer payments.

Brilliant achievement from a standing start mid May, and it keeps on growing.

 

[CoffeeKing]

extract from "Business Spectator" at 2:05PM 20th July 2008

Fortescue gets expansion nod

By a staff reporter

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd says it can now expand and further develop growth projects throughout West Australia's Chichester Ranges, after achieving "Project Completion".

The milestone required the resource firm to mine, rail and ship two million tonnes of iron ore within a four week period, which has been verified by Behre Dolbear Australia, the project's independent engineer.

It means Fortescue has now satisfied certain conditions within its financial arrangements, allowing it to pursue expansion and development plans for the Chichester Ranges.

It comes eight weeks after the company shipped its first load of iron ore to Chinese steel major Baosteel.

Mr Forrest said it marked another step towards the company's goal to become a major mining player.

"This sets a great platform for the continuing ramp up of our project to its initial targeted capacity of 55 million tonnes,” Fortescue chief executive Andrew Forrest said. He also said the Chichester Ranges could support operations of 150 million tonnes a year with demand for iron ore set to remain strong for more than a decade, Fairfax reports.

Fortescue has previously flagged increasing iron ore production to 200 million tonnes a year.

"We can achieve a mining house in the iron ore business at least the scale of BHP's medium term objectives just in the Chichester region alone," he said in the report.

http://www.businessspectator.com.au...sion-nod-GQ6CP?OpenDocument&alerts&loc=center

 

[hollowpoint]

interesting.... too many factors in play here to work out the right strategy. maybe price averaging is best.

current is 8.12.... but there is a project completion announcement, negative news regarding the native title claim (or whatever it is) and that other link seemed to suggest a price of around 8 was about right..... so very confusing as to what will happen. I'd like to see some major movement either way, but from all accounts it doesn't look like we will see $13 for a while.

again, i wish i had some readies to buy at 8.12......

 

[hollowpoint]

Does anyone know exactly when earnings are announced? I thought someone said August before? ..........

 

[MichaelD]

Well, FMG hit its stop loss for me on Friday, so I've now closed my positions - thanks to the true believers for an excellent exit slippage-wise this morning.

Good luck to those that hold.

 

[hollowpoint]

sorry to hear that. i thought about a stop-loss, but i just have this feeling i cannot get away from that it's about to hit a high again. clearly i'm not basing that on anything solid, but i believe it will be a nice week for FMG. 8-10% increase per day for a few days would make me happy.

 

[Miner]

Do not know if I should call myself a greedy, non believer or stupid but I was lucky to buy FMG last week at $8.12 on Friday and sold them at $8.75 today.

The price will go up again probably to $10 based on what Andrew said in West News and his expansion plan published in ASX.

But with my recent experience with GCR with loss of 50% in a substantial investment (still holding as just do not have the mental capacity to turn out the paper loss into real loss) I could not believe the market volatility.

Regarding FMG the independent engineer's report is excellent to say that it has achieved full capacity within two months which is normally not even done in 10 months by many projects after commissioning.

So not knowing how much due diligence has been really done behind the engineering analysis to certify the full capacity and if desanding is fully commissioned or not, (I am not doubting it but with my experience it is an excellent outcome) I do believe this report is a good story for me to return to FMG again in near future unless it reaches a fathomless high.

My best wishes to all true believers

 

[Go Nuke]

Yeah I too nearly pulled the pin on FMG on Friday, as I bought into the stock in about Jan for $7.70.
I copped too many losses in my short time and I was prepared to take a really crappy gain (from where the sp has been) rather than see yet another loss on paper

One day i might learn to use stops!

Guess I am looking long term, but for 7 months Ive holding, ive got little to show today

 

[hollowpoint]

nice finish at 9.10

last parcel i bought was at 9.15, so i have almost recovered that at least! i'd like to see another 4 or 5 days with 12% gain!

 

[njc.corp]

nice finish at 9.10

last parcel i bought was at 9.15, so i have almost recovered that at least! i'd like to see another 4 or 5 days with 12% gain!

$9.130- nice-

but from what i have been told-its needs a bit more time-but i will take the nice gain we got today-

on the other note-was todays gain in fmg and even the metal sector driven by the stats that their is no sign of china's economy slowing down-or was it due to a overselling point and profit taking of last week or bit of nerve's

Any more info would be nice

Happy trading

Thanks

Nick--

 

[gav]

Well, the little parcel I bought Friday arvo means that I'm back in the green

Its funny how quickly things can change...

PS. I hope whoever has been shorting FMG got bit HARD today

And a nice little article at news.com.au
http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,23636,24052089-14334,00.html

 

[hollowpoint]

i thought it was being short-sold, but i have gathered from what other people in the forum are saying is that it is a combination of:

1. low price from being overvalued anyway and that the drop is just a market correction

2. lots of margin calls putting pressure on investors, lots of stop-loss

3. increased again on the back of the latest announcement of completion

4. overall improvement in the asx following wall st improvements

that's the way i understand it anyway. i am betting (ie.. no stop loss for me) that we will see between 4-10% per day gains this week.

 

[njc.corp]

i thought it was being short-sold, but i have gathered from what other people in the forum are saying is that it is a combination of:

1. low price from being overvalued anyway and that the drop is just a market correction

2. lots of margin calls putting pressure on investors, lots of stop-loss

3. increased again on the back of the latest announcement of completion

4. overall improvement in the asx following wall st improvements

that's the way i understand it anyway. i am betting (ie.. no stop loss for me) that we will see between 4-10% per day gains this week.

That all well and all-but hollow can i ask why the comment on the stop loss-

is it a example or u dont use one-

i am a bit loss on that comment

Thanks

Nick--

 

[hollowpoint]

ie means That is, not For Example...

MichaelD said he hit his stop loss. i was saying i am prepared to lose my money so i am not even going to contemplate selling for a loss.

 

[questionall_42]

i was saying i am prepared to lose my money so i am not even going to contemplate selling for a loss.

Ummm.. isn't that a contradiction hollowpoint? Will you only realise losses if FMG goes bankrupt or into liquidation? If it plummets and hovers at half its value for 10 years will you still not contemplate selling for a loss? I struggle to see the logic in your buy and hold approach REGARDLESS of what is happening with FMG or the market.