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FMG - Fortescue Ltd

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LeeTV said:
I took my profits and ran

I forsee a downward trend, perhaps back as far as $10.30/10.50, in the coming weeks(but what do I know?).
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Lee- good to hear-

lee-if i could pick your brain for a minute or so-

why do u see a downward that far back-could u go into a bit more detail

as a holder i would like to see other members tatics towards this stock

if i am out of line please let me know

Happy trading

Thanks

Nick--
 

took your profits and run - hrmm, you probably would have been better suited for that yesterday..

one rule in stock trading is to never trade based on emotions - because you see something go down is not sufficient evidence to sell out..

and 10.30? no cognitive distortion or bias there based on your sentiment yesterday.. i am sure if you had bought it today you would be quiet the opposite lol


this is a long term thing, not a short term thing imo

my tactic nick - sit put and ride the fortescue wave...

good luck nevertheless
 


As u know i am the same-

but just wanted to know why he/she thought a retracement back that far-

i am not for 1 minute saying it won't-just want to know a good reason or stats -chart behind it-

i for one dont know how to read charts on a level u guys see it-but all in due time

Thanks

Nick--
 
LeeTV, any correction will only be short lived imo. Perhaps steep, as FMG is up form $6 in only a few months, but still short lived. The long term trend is higher, but at these levels, its a cautious trade.
Anyone heard anything with regards to Harbinger? Are they still planning on offloading half their stake?
 
I have watched this stock for sometime now and it has had some good runs then there is profit taking and a downward slide then it picks up again. The last time I bought in was @ 9.48 the stock topped out at 12 then fell back to 9.42 within 10 days only to rally and then get as high as 13.15 at one stage today 2 weeks later, that's quite some movement. I could have sold made a nice profit then bought back in slightly under my prior buy in and made double the profits. Maybe I am just being overcautious and over zealous or perhaps even hopeful as I intend to buy back in when the time is right else persue some of the juniors, bought AGO @ 3.55 on Monday(right on the low). As I said before, what do i know :
 
there does seem to be regular, temporary, short lived downward spikes with FMG. possibly shorters gain enough confidence and ride it down. almost as fast it picks back up and continues onward and upward. someone smarter than i could make a buck trading those dips.
personally fmg is for me a long term acculmulate.
 
agro said:
this is a long term thing, not a short term thing imo

my tactic nick - sit put and ride the fortescue wave...

good luck nevertheless
Click to expand...

i agree. i am very new to this, i know there will be times when its up and down. Been holding for 6 weeks and im up 29%, so no complaints here. Sure if I bought/sold at the right times I could be up more, but that is too risky for me - I believe in FMG which is why I bought in the 1st place, and believe it will be alot higher in coming months/years. plus each time you buy/sell, you have to take into account brokerage, what u will be taxed, etc. and if u stuff up your buy/sell just once, you can wipe out alot of your gains.

your chart last week was right agro, all time highs were reached. and when $15M worth are bought at $11.24, surely that is a sign that the future looks bright...
 

Thats more or less how FMG has traded now for years. Short and sharp dips among a gigantic bull run. The question is, where are we in the bull run for FMG?
 
I noticed "Twiggy" has sold 3,460,000 this morning in The Metals Group Pty Ltd...maybe he needs some play money for the weekend?
 
LeeTV said:
I noticed "Twiggy" has sold 3,460,000 this morning = $45,000,000
Interesting...maybe he needs some play money for the weekend?
Click to expand...

Perhaps its to fund the Stark conspiracy. We are all going to die.

You never know these things could happen....
 
LeeTV said:
I noticed "Twiggy" has sold 3,460,000 this morning in The Metals Group Pty Ltd...maybe he needs some play money for the weekend?
Click to expand...

maybe he is spending that on his bbq party for the weekend-

he should have taken more out-with todays food prices 45 million is not going to get much snags and maybe a slab of beer



Happy trading guys

Thanks

Nick--
 
Donated his FMG so his charity can secure the options on POS lloks like his focus is shifting.
POS also secured funding for its project toady from his mates at harbinger capital
 
Gekko said:
Thats more or less how FMG has traded now for years. Short and sharp dips among a gigantic bull run. The question is, where are we in the bull run for FMG?
Click to expand...

Now that was short! 1 day. FMG traded up 4% at one stage today to 12.50. Goes to show, the momentum in this stock is incredibly strong and its so tightly held its easy to move up hard.
Hands up who's envious of twiggys 1,040,000,000 shares
 
LeeTV said:
I noticed "Twiggy" has sold 3,460,000 this morning in The Metals Group Pty Ltd...maybe he needs some play money for the weekend?
Click to expand...

ummmmmmmmmmmm .... i don't think so

if he sold it would be to:

1 - his super fund (no one likes paying tax)

or

2 - transferred as a gift to someone (it states transfer)


selling on market not only would create a huge capital gain tax but would not look good on his behalf
 
on the news tonight, FMG's EBITDA for next year will be $3.4 billion AuD.
If's its potential is 4x current capacity. (based on port capacity potential), that'll equate to $13billion PA EBITDA. current market cap is 33billion
i'ld say that there is still plenty of upside here.


the 2.4million (close to $25m dollars) shares that forrest disposed today were gifted to various transferees. most likely charities. forrest has reputedly said that he doesn't plan to leave the money to his children, and he knows you can't take it to heaven. he'll probably donate shares annually, (probably with the same care and responsibility that he conducts his business)
 
I thought there was a gift tax?

To prevent people from giving their money away without paying tax on it?

I suppose if it was to a charity its a tax deduction for him??

ROFL. I bet Twiggy only pays about $1 tax with good accountants
 
Go Nuke said:
I thought there was a gift tax?

To prevent people from giving their money away without paying tax on it?

I suppose if it was to a charity its a tax deduction for him??

ROFL. I bet Twiggy only pays about $1 tax with good accountants
Click to expand...

Go Nuke

On the contrary if you donate to recognised charity then you will get tax deduction, So one dollar will earn you 47 cents and free name and fame and saving of money from PR investment for the balance 53 cents when you donate 20 million dollars
 

i am guessing this was the charity for the Chinese earthquake - more than likly to the government

Twiggy is smart - he builds a good relationship and rapport with our biggest consumer of Iron Ore - China..

and to finish green today - speechless
 
twiggy and fmg board get pretty small renumeration packages.
their main reward is that they were very early investors and have long term alignment with all the other shareholders. i wish the same could be true of all major companies.

back to fundamentals, what is rio's ebitda for next year. thats the closest peer fmg has.

or what other aus company has 3.4b ebitda, and serious growth to 4 x size over the next 2-5 years. their market cap would be useful to know.
 
Does anyone know what the forecast earnings and profits are for the next 5 years? Looking hindsight, FMG would have been a great buy a year ago, anyone care to estimate how high the SP could go?
 
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