FMG - Fortescue Ltd

[gav]

ah OK, that was out last week, but the little news symbol is still there.


thank-you

Gav

 

[renim]

fmg would be comparable to a small rio, as rio earnings have a large exposure to iron ore.
bhp is a significantly more diversified company. and significantly larger

 

[njc.corp]

boy gee's

we are having a rough week-could we be in for more price dropping?

happy trading people

Thanks

Nick--

 

[agro]

boy gee's

we are having a rough week-could we be in for more price dropping?

happy trading people

Thanks

Nick--

yeh, it's not FMG's week this week nor the all ords - must admit,

prices for FMG under $11 do look attractive - happy with what i have though

may be worth considering transferring it to the super if it gets any lower

 

[zaf39]

I think it is time for everyone to hold their nerves.I think the ASX200 hit a year low today,wonder if this will trigger more buyers?

Cheers
Zaf.

 

[Galax]

What is happening with fortescue all ordinarys are down.

Wasn't there suppose to be a price increase?

Lets just hope that this is only a dip and that price will bounce back

 

[gav]

What is happening with fortescue all ordinarys are down.

Wasn't there suppose to be a price increase?

Lets just hope that this is only a dip and that price will bounce back

As said by agro previously, dips have been followed by all time highs. Lets just hope history repeats itself. I will continue to hold.

 

[oldblue]

I wouldn't try to read too much into the SP at present, on a day when BHP and RIO are both down 3.5%ish.
It's just the market.



Disc: Not holding but very interested!

 

[LeeTV]

Was a good day for me to get back in though
Now I just hope the sp start it's merry treck the other way.

 

[njc.corp]

Not to worry-this is how it rolls-

must take the good and the bad-

my dad did manage to see a buying frenzy at $10.85-not to bad in my eye's

so here we are again-we were here about 2-3 weeks ago?

one member asked if we would see the $10 range-well did u get in-because we are here at 10.80

who's feeling the heat?

Happy trading to all for the rest of the week-

Thanks

Nick--

 

[MRC & Co]

This thread is a daily update on the price movements of FMG and the emotions that go with it.

It is a reminder of exactly how NOT to be.

If you are an investor, you should not be concerned with daily fluctuations.

if you are a trader, you should have your stop set and go about your business.

Now the question is, where is your price target, and where is your stop?

If you are an investor, you will more than likely have a price target.

If you are a trader, it is more than likely your trailing stop (which you should have), has been wiped out already.

 

[njc.corp]

This thread is a daily update on the price movements of FMG and the emotions that go with it.

It is a reminder of exactly how NOT to be.

If you are an investor, you should not be concerned with daily fluctuations.

if you are a trader, you should have your stop set and go about your business.

Now the question is, where is your price target, and where is your stop?

If you are an investor, you will more than likely have a price target.

If you are a trader, it is more than likely your trailing stop (which you should have), has been wiped out already.

what do u mean by emotions-

i know i am a investor-but what does that mean-that i should not see how my investment is going or talk about it-so who cares if i come on here and wish everyone a good trading day-

i would love to tell u about my target-but i have no info to support the claim-

thats what u guys would call ramping-

i got told by 2 basic people not to take it to serious-looks like u are-

Thanks

Nick--

 

[MRC & Co]

what do u mean by emotions-

i know i am a investor-but what does that mean-that i should not see how my investment is going or talk about it-so who cares if i come on here and wish everyone a good trading day-

i would love to tell u about my target-but i have no info to support the claim-

thats what u guys would call ramping-

i got told by 2 basic people not to take it to serious-looks like u are-

Thanks

Nick--

In just the small page above me, I can see the words, "hope, nerves, heat", and everybody is commenting daily on price movements.

I am not taking anything seriously, but how many are here just to ride the waves, not knowing when to exit? The price will not keep going up forever, so when will you get out? As an investor, this would generally be fair value, and then any move above that target could be caught by trailing up the stop.

For a trader, you should have had your stop protecting profits the entire time IMO.

That is all I am stating, sorry if it came accross as rude.

Looks like nobody knows what price to sell this one at......regardless of which way the price moves.........a very very dangerous gambling game to play.

I don't know who "you guys" refers too, I am not a mod, just making an observation.

So njc, what is your target as an investor, or what is your 'fair value', and why do you value it at that price? What happens if the stock never hits your target, when will you know it is time to get out? Or just hold indefinately until your emotions get the better of you?

 

[agro]

If you are an investor, you should not be concerned with daily fluctuations.

i have to agree with this statement - unless you are really skilled, trading in a bear market like this is rather hard (imo) much easier to do in a bullish market however,

i am considered an investor, not the least worried about fluctuations, just in case anyone hasn't already realized..

i don't intend trading FMG but sitting on it

in 2-3 years what it is now be it $9, $10 or even $11 would look cheap

that's my disclose and

 

[MRC & Co]

So is there a 'value' at which you would sell Agro?

What if in 3 years, the price is $10?

I mean, nothing is a guarantee, such is the nature of the markets. Unless you can control them, then you cannot ensure anything when it comes to investing or trading.

So surely, there has to come a point, where you think the price has peaked, or at which time you start to question your own analysis and perception of price?

 

[enigmatic]

I'm pretty new to this and I can understand were your coming from MRC & Co
it is wise to both to have a stop loss and a target price. however In my personal opinion which is just that. Is it not wise to always re-valuate your position so for me to say that my target price is $20 in 2 years is in my eyes a good idea. However if the market a beautiful creature it is has a much high valuation of FMG which it has always had, been following this for arround 18 months now. would it not be wise for me to re-evaluate my price if this price is reached much earlier then expected or if new more detailed information is released which enables me to better evaluate my exit point.
Iron ore prices drops maybe i will re evaluate my exit value to be much lower.
fixing a price is in my eyes much better for speculative stocks were today up 100% tommorrow down 60% fix a price and get out with what you were expecting, as the change in prices are volitile and you don't get enough time to evaluate the fundamentals.

I however have 2 years to judge my fundamentals for FMG and know what I'm expecting based on the current market info, if this info changes then my evaluation will change.

 

[MichaelD]

If you are a trader, it is more than likely your trailing stop (which you should have), has been wiped out already.

Many good points there MRC about the emotional aspects of FMG, but I can assure you I have no emotional attachment to FMG, I am fully pyramided into it and my trailing stop has not yet been hit - it's at around 8.50 or so, so not even particularly close to it yet. The ATR for FMG of late has been very high.

The thread does make for interesting reading, though.

 

[agro]

So is there a 'value' at which you would sell Agro?

What if in 3 years, the price is $10?

I mean, nothing is a guarantee, such is the nature of the markets. Unless you can control them, then you cannot ensure anything when it comes to investing or trading.

So surely, there has to come a point, where you think the price has peaked, or at which time you start to question your own analysis and perception of price?

i'll probably end up selling when twiggy sells or when they find a substitute for iron ore to make steel

 

[renim]

i'm still bullish as crazy about fmg.
they finally got production, so cash flow will follow.
the world needs steel. if there is a recession due to oil, arabs will still need steel for their infrastucture
if inda gets her act together, she'll stop exporting iron ore but will need to import iron ore
china, need i say more
bhp merge with rio, bring it on.
seriously, fmg has repeatedly shown plans for expansion to 200mtpa, next stop 100 or 160.
thats adding another 30-60bill to market capitilization. and doubling to trebling the share price.
what other producer has this scope. and yes fmg is now valued as a producer, its blue sky is ignored.
fmg may not have the blue sky ratio of some smaller stocks anymore, but they have a demonstrated capacity to project build faster than anyone else, through more adversity than average.

i doubt this dip is finished, it feels more market driven than fmg targeted shorters.

 

[renim]

i suspect those of us who have held fmg for more than 6 months, probably don't feel too concerned about current fluctuations, they have seen it before and come out on top. where as those who have just started or trade in and out will be somewhat nervous.

personally my wild guess is sooner than later fmg will announce 'project completion' at only 26mtpa, and shortly after will announce 45mtpa throughput achieved, and then shortly after that an expansion to perhaps 160mpta. funded partially by cash flow, partially by debt (to china or america at a rate like 3% or so), and partially by a share dilution of less than 5%.

the new debt/bonds would mostly be to replace the current debt.

the share dilution would be mostly to reward the suppliers of the debt

the cash flow could probably carry the expansion, with the other funding providing 'contingency'

historically, fmg's burn rate is lower than forward projected earning, ( 3year project about 3bill expense) (1 yr earnings about 3 bill income). so they could expand using earnings only.

ok i'll bite. 4 year target price ~ $40 (hey thats slow compared to fmg historic rate)