FMG - Fortescue Ltd

[agro]

pretty basic chart for a basic person but this is what i was trying to explain before,

massive dip , before hitting a fresh high..

 

[prawn_86]

pretty basic chart for a basic person but this is what i was trying to explain before,

massive dip , before hitting a fresh high..

going by that theory Agro, I would expect a month or so consolidation at these levels.

See how you have drawn 3 different, ever increasing, trendlines. If FMG jumped up to another all time high within the next week or 2, the 4th trendline would be virtually vertical, which from a technical perspective is massively unsustainable.

If howver it consolidates for a while and then the trend line is at a nice 45% then its a different story

 

[Ausman]

Yes I am inclined to agree.

But what do you mean by 45%. Is it 1% per day or 1% per week or ??


Ausman

 

[prawn_86]

Sorry dunno what i was thinking there,

The previous post of mine should read 45 degrees not 45%

 

[agro]

going by that theory Agro, I would expect a month or so consolidation at these levels.

See how you have drawn 3 different, ever increasing, trendlines. If FMG jumped up to another all time high within the next week or 2, the 4th trendline would be virtually vertical, which from a technical perspective is massively unsustainable.

If howver it consolidates for a while and then the trend line is at a nice 45% then its a different story

hey prawn_86 and others,

i am sticking to my well and truly proven theory that this always happens,

a dip then fresh new week highs!

as i have been following it for a while now, this has always happen.

if you're smart enough to take advantage of these dips in future, you could come out very well

cheers

 

[njc.corp]

about bloody time-

5-6 down days-

100% correct argo- what goes up must come down-but depends on how much u want to cop on the chin-

i did manage to get some more (350) but not as low as i should have-

also what was with todays announcement-fmg- drilling for something else or something?

Thanks people-

Happy trading for next week--

Nick--(melb)

 

[Galax]

I have just lost a lot of money on BNB so today i sold them should have done it earlier mind you. and purchased FMG. Does any one know what brokers predict FMG will go to in the next 3 - 6 months :

 

[Galax]

I have not seen or heard of any announcement today, can anyone tell me what the announcement was for?

 

[Nesa]

I have not seen or heard of any announcement today, can anyone tell me what the announcement was for?

ASL: Ausdrill Wins New Important Contracts
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00850671

 

[njc.corp]

I have just lost a lot of money on BNB so today i sold them should have done it earlier mind you. and purchased FMG. Does any one know what brokers predict FMG will go to in the next 3 - 6 months :

what do u think it will go too-

i could say $100.00 but i dont have any info to explain why it will or wont go that high-(so i would be lying)

have u got a target-

By all means- i am not having a go-

Thanks

Nick--(melb)

 

[Galax]

Yes I do the first time I purchased fortescue it was at $6.90 my target was $9.00 today I purchased some more and my target I believe is $15.00.

I wish you weren't lying $100.00 a share would be lovely but if any one was going to get close to that bench mark it would most probably be BHP.
($70.00).

I was curious to know what targets other believe it would go to.

Do you know about the announcement I can not seem to find it anywhere.

 

[prawn_86]

Galax,

As you are a new member please read the posting guidelines.

Why do you think it will reach $15?

Please provide some form of analysis supporting this view, otherwise the post is meaningless and will be removed.

Thanks

prawn

 

[Galax]

ASL: Ausdrill Wins New Important Contracts
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00850671

Thank you Nesa i really appreicate the web link.

I actually saw this anouncement but I must of read it incorrectly I thought it was stating that ASL have the contract. I think i will need to read it again.

 

[Galax]

Galax,

As you are a new member please read the posting guidelines.

Why do you think it will reach $15?

Please provide some form of analysis supporting this view, otherwise the post is meaningless and will be removed.

Thanks

prawn

My apologies

On july 2008 there should hopefully be an announcement of price increase of 85 percent for iron ore.

And china also want to get their hand on them

And if you look at chart for Fortescue you can see in JAN - FEB the price was at $5.00 then a high of $8.00 in March another fall In $6.00 in Mar - Apr than a high $11.50 in June and a fall today. Where do you think it will go?.
I would also have to agree with agro he is spot on the money.
You can see it on the chart

This is my opinion so please always do your research.

 

[njc.corp]

Yes I do the first time I purchased fortescue it was at $6.90 my target was $9.00 today I purchased some more and my target I believe is $15.00.

I wish you weren't lying $100.00 a share would be lovely but if any one was going to get close to that bench mark it would most probably be BHP.
($70.00).

I was curious to know what targets other believe it would go to.

Do you know about the announcement I can not seem to find it anywhere.

a real target or a hopeful target-

so many angles to cover and answer-

what happens if they dont produce such and such amount of iron ore-
what happens if people at the plant get hurt-
what happens if china does not want any iron ore?
does anyone else need iron ore-
will they make costly mistakes along the way-

such a hard ? to answer-

impossible to know easy to guess-

What i am trying is to gain as much as i can in a timeframe i am working with-thats it really

Hope that helps

Nick--(melb)

 

[Galax]

a real target or a hopeful target-

so many angles to cover and answer-

what happens if they dont produce such and such amount of iron ore-
what happens if people at the plant get hurt-
what happens if china does not want any iron ore?
does anyone else need iron ore-
will they make costly mistakes along the way-

such a hard ? to answer-

impossible to know easy to guess-

What i am trying is to gain as much as i can in a timeframe i am working with-thats it really

Hope that helps

Nick--(melb)

You are right it is easy to guess but really you never know what th real outcome will be.

Things can look peachy and then a disaster strike.

I have been stung before but i will not allow that to happen again. Once bitten twice shy.

All I can say do as much research as possible.

 

[agro]

Yes I do the first time I purchased fortescue it was at $6.90 my target was $9.00 today I purchased some more and my target I believe is $15.00.

I wish you weren't lying $100.00 a share would be lovely but if any one was going to get close to that bench mark it would most probably be BHP.
($70.00).

I was curious to know what targets other believe it would go to.

Do you know about the announcement I can not seem to find it anywhere.

switching from BNB (financial) to a resource play - probably the wisest thing you have done considering the turmoil at the moment, not to mention accumulating more, but increasing average

$15 will be attained easy.

reason - ramp up of production, higher Iron ore Prices (expected 20% increase next year), expected dividends, further consolidation within the pilbara (other small cap iron ores coming into production - AGO, GBG) and more potential take-overs..

sinosteel didn't buy a 2.2bn stake for nothing.. baosteel have their eyes set on them too

also read this from monday's australian:

Fortescue well-advised with China link
ANDREW Forrest's Fortescue Metals Group has become the first major Australian company to establish a China Advisory Board -- with internationally famous trade negotiator Long Yongtu as its chairman.

The board of five, which would usually meet twice a year, with other less formal consultations in between, held its inaugural meeting in Beijing on Saturday, with chief executive officer Mr Forrest and executive directors Russell Scrimshaw and Graham Rowley also attending.

Tomorrow, Mr Scrimshaw will represent the company at the arrival of the first shipment of iron ore from FMG in Western Australia to northern China, at the new port of Caofeidian. The shipment will go to the Tangshan Iron & Steel Group.

Eleven days ago, the first FMG shipment for Baosteel arrived at Majishan port, off Shanghai.

The advisory board has one Australian -- Robin Chambers, a Melbourne-based lawyer who has specialised in advising Chinese companies on investing in Australia's resources sector, since working as general counsel for the former CRA, now Rio Tinto.

Mr Long is best known as the official who finally negotiated China's accession to the World Trade Organisation in December 2001, after the country had attempted to join for 15 years.

Mr Long, 64, studied at the London School of Economics back in the Cultural Revolution era (1973-74) and is a fluent and witty English speaker. He is the founder and secretary-general of the Boao Forum for Asia, an annual conference that regularly attracts regional leaders -- this year including Prime Minister Kevin Rudd.

Mr Scrimshaw said: "The idea is to give the main FMG board advice and guidance on ways to develop more strongly its relationship with China. And that also leads to strengthening ties between Australia more generally and China."

He said the advisory board would "look at opportunities to strengthen ties between ourselves and China's steel industry, and suppliers of equipment that would suit our particular style of operation".

It would also consider "technical skills that can be brought to bear to ensure our products are as acceptable as they can be in China, and trends in the Chinese steel industry, and more general socio-economic trends that can give us guidance".

The advisory board does not have a particular brief to explore options for encouraging Chinese equity participation in FMG, said Mr Scrimshaw.

He said such a board was a natural part of FMG's evolution as a company, because "its primary business focus is on China, whereas many of the other players in this industry have a broader sales base".

"We need to make sure we are optimising our ability to respond to opportunities here in China."

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,,23831794-643,00.html?from=public_rss

 

[njc.corp]

switching from BNB (financial) to a resource play - probably the wisest thing you have done considering the turmoil at the moment, not to mention accumulating more, but increasing average

$15 will be attained easy.

reason - ramp up of production, higher Iron ore Prices (expected 20% increase next year), expected dividends, further consolidation within the pilbara (other small cap iron ores coming into production - AGO, GBG) and more potential take-overs..

sinosteel didn't buy a 2.2bn stake for nothing.. baosteel have their eyes set on them too

also read this from monday's australian:


http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,,23831794-643,00.html?from=public_rss

argo-nice article u got there-seems interesting and very good undertsanding on how they are planning their future-

Hmmm?

Thanks

As always better trading next week

Good weekend

Nick--(melb)

 

[renim]

Agree - nice article Agro

I now sometimes do my my news searching for FMG in Goggle.hk nothing to report yesterday, but as this is a China story, why not.
Personally I suspect that once the some more news from China comes out, that Macqaurie Equities reported brokers recommendation of $4.91 will seem incompetent.
I'm also waiting for an expansion to 100mtPA to be announced. Nb. Interest rates for borrowing in HK are much lower than here.

Another point, there feels like there are ore carrier shipping constraints biting new and old entrants. who makes these ships? and who is nearest to market? The Pilbara's proximity must be a useful hedge against Africa and America, cause after all, hauling Run Of Mine tis expensive in fuel and ships.

Lets see how Rio entertains its African sovereign risk situation

I also randomly suspect that FMG has been a shorting favourite for those who like to sell shorts. (based upon its chart of incremental rising with period deep, temporary falls) I suspect that is the angle some analysts come from for this stock. Generally I've bought into this stock immediately after its recovered from such an occurance, not a particularly profitable way of investing but it feels lower risk. Also this is a volatile stock, often it does go below an entry price I took, however 6 months later all becomes very rosy. That is my strategy for this stock, I doubt that I'll sell until FMG hits 200mtPA or is demonstrated that it can't reach 200mtPA (which is an unlikely demonstration).

FMG's real competiton also includes India, since FMG ore displaces Indian spot price ore (not BHP Tinto). There is still a strong anti-globalisation movement in India calling for higher export tarriffs on ore etc, this must help FMG.

It looks like the rail access to BHP Tinto is not going well for FMG, hey maybe its time to make some lemonade.

 

[renim]

from Yahoo, Rio Tinto market cap US 145B
elsewhere FMG market cap is Aus 24B

so its approximately 1/6th the size of Rio. Currently Rio is rated at about 145mtPA. I don't know, yet i would like to know what percentage of Rio's profits are attributable to iron ore.

Expansion possibilities for FMG to quadruple to 200mtPA are not difficult to grasp. where-as Rio's great white hope expansion possibility is more adventurous. However Rio has many other large and long running assets out side of iron ore (does anyone else mine the periodic table - just kidding)