FMG - Fortescue Ltd

[my mirror lies]

You have to look at the market cap and not the share price. How so many people don't understand this relationship is beyond me. Should be one of the first things you learn to look at when deciding whether a company is undervalued or overvalued. No offence meant by this post, but on what justification did you buy this stock?

I bought the stock based on the strong recommendation of a very well known and respected investment advisor, Jim Jubak. He writes for MSN on a weekly basis.

I have bought his reco's in the past with great results. That's why I bought Fortescue after the split. In the 5 months since buying this stock it's up 81%. I had never heard of the company prior to December 2007.

At that time, the company was reasonably close to being a producer, rather than an explorer. So I decided to take a chance and it has paid off handsomely. Now I can understand buying a stock that is very close to realizing it's goals like I did, but I don't understand how this stock could go from as little as 33cents to over $53US without producing any oar.

I just wish I had known about it then because I'd be sitting on over $18million right now. Maybe I should sue Jim Jubak for not informing his readers sooner.

 

[the barry]

Can you please elaborate?

I barely EVER look at market cap and do not use it when running an intrinsic value equation.

You 'value' your stock and then compare to it's current price.

For example go to the following website and have a read of the ccz equities report on the right hand side.

http://gindalbie.com.au/

Page 21 will give you a guide as to why market cap is important.

 

[njc.corp]

blue skys ahead for FMG

you get people in here mentioning its over-valued which may be the case but you have to remember that less than 10% is in the holding of the public

most of it is held by chinese steel companies and twiggy..

5% by aussie brokers i think..


new 52 week high by the way - cracked $11

i totally agree- over-valued?na not all-
? for the people that said it was over valued? at what price did u think it was over valued???

the reason i ask is what will u say if the over-value was @$8.00? and now its $10.50-10.60? is it over priced now?

the only fact i go by is what the price is now-and thats living proof-

i supposed as a basic guess-their promised has been met-they loaded the ship-the ship when and has arrive-thats it-

so in my eyes-its back to work at fmg to fill in the other contracts and enough talking-because they dont need to talk anymore-

thankgod i kept my other shares in fmg-

Thanks

Nick--

 

[agro]

i totally agree- over-valued?na not all-
? for the people that said it was over valued? at what price did u think it was over valued???

the reason i ask is what will u say if the over-value was @$8.00? and now its $10.50-10.60? is it over priced now?

the only fact i go by is what the price is now-and thats living proof-

i supposed as a basic guess-their promised has been met-they loaded the ship-the ship when and has arrive-thats it-

so in my eyes-its back to work at fmg to fill in the other contracts and enough talking-because they dont need to talk anymore-

thankgod i kept my other shares in fmg-

Thanks

Nick--

new 52 week high of 11.36 today

continues to go against all the odds

would be good to get a chartists opinion

 

[SenTineL]

this becoming a monster of a share.

who are all these people on commsec selling? I'm almost afraid to sell as I would hate to look back and see how much higher it has gone after i sold....

 

[njc.corp]

new 52 week high of 11.36 today

continues to go against all the odds

would be good to get a chartists opinion

Agro-u know what i did not even see how it went today-

i log on to my account to see it in the $11.00 range- i did also buy some more today @ 10.90 so i wont complain-

i am sick of even thinking how high or low this will go-i just placed my stop's and will c where this baby will take me-

i like seeing everyone's thats on this do good as usual-

Thanks

Nick-(melb)

 

[barnz2k]

I had planned to sell some others and buy more FMG today, but being 8hrs time diff and no internet at home means im now down 5% instead of being up 5%

Think this is all build up only on spec that chinese will invest in FMG?

 

[agro]

Agro-u know what i did not even see how it went today-

i log on to my account to see it in the $11.00 range- i did also buy some more today @ 10.90 so i wont complain-

i am sick of even thinking how high or low this will go-i just placed my stop's and will c where this baby will take me-

i like seeing everyone's thats on this do good as usual-

Thanks

Nick-(melb)

it's a good thing you are accumulating and have a stop loss in place (just in case)..

like urself, i wish everyone else all the best and i do thoroughly beleive that this stock, from once being the target of skeptics is 'in vogue' now - just look at the recent media publicity it has been given.

once more a BHP / RIO merger would make it 2nd biggest in australia (i am hoping the merger takes place.. obviously cause it will benefit FMG)

I had planned to sell some others and buy more FMG today, but being 8hrs time diff and no internet at home means im now down 5% instead of being up 5%

Think this is all build up only on spec that chinese will invest in FMG?

i have been trying to pinpoint this out to people , but if the likes of baosteel and sino are buying at these levels ($10-$11) surly they have foresight into the future price of the company

remember both companies are government owned and only they know that iron ore will be in greater demand in future to come..

FMG $20 by end of the year considering the records of many other stocks that cracked the $10 mark (but then again i am bias and in for the long haul)

 

[njc.corp]

I had planned to sell some others and buy more FMG today, but being 8hrs time diff and no internet at home means im now down 5% instead of being up 5%

Think this is all build up only on spec that chinese will invest in FMG?

Barnz2k-dont be to hard on yourself on not being on board-tuesday is a new day and so on

Chinese hype? i don't know what to think

like i said before i am over thinking where its going-i dont want to worry about chinese interest nor do i want to know about the metal prices-

At the end of the day its still a catch 22- their customers are chinese away so no big loss in my eyes if the interest goes out the window-

Thanks

Nick--(melb)

 

[agro]

Baosteel plans to expand cooperation with FMG

Jun. 2, 2008 (China Knowledge) - Considering the rising price of iron ore, Baosteel Group Corp plans to expand cooperation with Australia's Fortescue Metals Group Ltd (FMG) to meet the huge demand in the world's fast growing major economy, according to sources.

With 170,000 tons of iron ore unloaded at the Majishan Harbor on May. 29, FMG had become a major iron ore supplier for Baosteel. Last year, FMG and Baosteel Resources Co, a subsidiary under Baosteel Group, had signed a 10-year iron ore supply contract. Under the terms of agreement, the former will provide 20 million tons of iron ore to the latter annually.

Baosteel may consider buying part of FMG's shares if the two can reach agreements on mutual aims, development strategies and market positioning, said Xu Lejiang, president of Baosteel.

China's steel industry is now seeking more channels for iron ore imports, with the hope to gain the upper hand in negotiations with Brazilian and Australian miners.

 

[MichaelD]

would be good to get a chartists opinion

Price go up.
Me go long.

Nothing else matters really.

"Prices will go up (or down) for longer than you could ever imagine possible"

(Still holding my fully pyramided long position in FMG with a stop loss that is now just about above my highest entry price.)

 

[barnz2k]

i have been trying to pinpoint this out to people , but if the likes of baosteel and sino are buying at these levels ($10-$11) surly they have foresight into the future price of the company

remember both companies are government owned and only they know that iron ore will be in greater demand in future to come..

FMG $20 by end of the year considering the records of many other stocks that cracked the $10 mark (but then again i am bias and in for the long haul)

Good point, basically they are the customer of FMG, so if they have an interest then they plan on being a customer for a while and planning their future.

Barnz2k-dont be to hard on yourself on not being on board-tuesday is a new day and so on

true true. Cheers mate.
And with the updated news on interest with Baosteel as agro just mentioned, tomorrow may be another good day.

Is it possible to try and calculate what the opening price might be? If I have to set a buy and leave it cause i cant see the open, How can I judge where to set it? It may be up or down enough to throw out my buy order to get in early.

 

[njc.corp]

true true. Cheers mate.
And with the updated news on interest with Baosteel as agro just mentioned, tomorrow may be another good day.

Is it possible to try and calculate what the opening price might be? If I have to set a buy and leave it cause i cant see the open, How can I judge where to set it? It may be up or down enough to throw out my buy order to get in early.

it would be wrong for me to calculate it has it chops and changes anyway-but on my platform it is showing me that the estimate is $11.370-estimate only-

JUdge-how can u judge-i dont know-its your money-its your trading plan-

My plan is to get one thing 1 right and that is how much of the profit i allowed it to take from me-

Hope that helps

Thanks

Nick--(melb)

 

[Go Nuke]

Well, how good was that to see FMG touch $12 today!

Im glad that i sold out of AVO some time back to put some small money into FMG.

Anyone here use a trailing stop?

I know people are reluctant to give advice but I'd like to hear what % of risk people are finding acceptable with FMG.

My only concern with FMG is the lack of diversification. I know its only early days but if this iron ore bubble bursts....what then?

 

[zaf39]

WOO HOO
$12 !
where to next?
Sooner than i expected...
This is scary wouldnt you think?!?!

 

[barnz2k]

I managed to top up yesterday, about midaway through the day so not too bad (staying up till 3am probably worth it haha)
Small parcel but about all I can afford before selling some other stock.

Im wondering about trailing stop too, as it has so much movement.

 

[njc.corp]

I managed to top up yesterday, about midaway through the day so not too bad (staying up till 3am probably worth it haha)
Small parcel but about all I can afford before selling some other stock.

Im wondering about trailing stop too, as it has so much movement.

Good to hear-

3 am? no one said it was easy to make money-

but good to see-

what did u buy at if you dont mind me asking-

sorry in advance if u dont want to mention the buying in price-

Thanks

Nick--(melb)

 

[agro]

just a key point of interest i'd like to make

9,974,126 volume

116,512,373 value


is this a bullish stock or what?

sell side has totally depleted, half the amount of the sale side (i saw it under 300,000 at one stage)

again - sky is the only limit on FMG - for it to go up on a down day says it all

is it possible some people are switching BHP/RIO to FMG?

who know's

 

[barnz2k]

No problem, I was changing my buy order, I set one early at 11.25 just so it was setup and in the system, then once I saw the opening price upped it to 11.40, I should have left it at 11.40 and would have got it, but upped it to 11.6 to get it done . So finally got it at 11.59. Still, with a close of 11.74 not bad.

haha yeah not so late, but had already been staring at screen for 12hrs lol.

 

[njc.corp]

just a key point of interest i'd like to make

9,974,126 volume

116,512,373 value


is this a bullish stock or what?

sell side has totally depleted, half the amount of the sale side (i saw it under 300,000 at one stage)

again - sky is the only limit on FMG - for it to go up on a down day says it all

is it possible some people are switching BHP/RIO to FMG?

who know's

Argo-like to see all is good-

loged on at the end of the day to see not a bad day at all-

as a basic trader- i been writing things on paper-until i get some good software-

since i am no expert-i have noticed in my notes that this stock does not go along the same lines as bhp and rio-

it happen today and also last wed or thur from memory-

i have also noticed through my notes that this stock got a good daily range of .25-.32 but it has change lately to about .33-to a high of .39-.40-

so i like the range as u can tell-


Argo-since i said i was a basic trader-could u put in english into what u mean by todays volume-

would rather look silly then not know what u mean-

Happy trading people

Thanks

Nick--(melb)