FMG - Fortescue Ltd

[agro]

FMG was my first ever trade. Bought at $9.30, 15 days ago (or 11 trading days). At close today I'm up 13.87%, which for me works out to be almost an entire weeks wage

congratulations to all who had faith in this stock and continued to hold

would suck to be a skeptic right now - (i wont point out any names here) but looks like you have missed out on ride of the century

much more to come

cheers
agro

 

[michael_selway]

congratulations to all who had faith in this stock and continued to hold

would suck to be a skeptic right now - (i wont point out any names here) but looks like you have missed out on ride of the century

much more to come

cheers
agro

Hi how much do you thinkit can go up from $10+

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS -2.6 -31.5 38.6 99.3
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Date: 26/5/2008
Author: Julie-Anne Sprague
Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 16
US-based fund Harbinger Capital Partners is looking to sell half its 16% stakein Fortescue Metals Group. Deputy GM William Ren stated that Sinosteel Australiawould be interested in acquiring the entire holding in the Western Australianiron ore group when Harbinger cashes out, but would be happy to settle for 8% inthe meantime. Fortescue's stock price reached a record $A9.98 on 23 May2008, valuing Harbingers stake at $A4.4 billion. The value of Fortescue CEOAndrew Forrest's interest reached more than $A10 billion as a result,confirming his status as Australia's richest person

 

[agro]

Hi how much do you thinkit can go up from $10+

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS -2.6 -31.5 38.6 99.3
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

well considering FMG are keen on giving a dividend.. $20 would still be unrealistic.. i just found this

http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/business/items/200805/s2246533.htm


Transcript
ALI MOORE, PRESENTER: Fortescue Metals Group has shipped its first consignment of iron ore out of the country.

The 180,000 tonne shipment is headed for Baosteel, China's largest steelmaker and one of the companies said to be circling Fortescue as a takeover target.

I spoke earlier to Graeme Rowley, Fortescue Metals' executive director.

Graeme Rowley, welcome to Lateline Business.

GRAEME ROWLEY, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, FORTESCUE METALS: Ali Moore, thank you very much for having me on the show.

ALI MOORE: At today's ceremony Andrew Forrest said, "Our integrity triumphs over the scepticism of others every day", does today's shipment finally prove the nay sayers wrong?

GRAEME ROWLEY: It absolutely does, Ali. We've had a number of them along the way.

Our competitors have been ably abetted by the analysts who've been ably abetted by various institutions and bankers who have said words to the effect that we would never do it and absolutely, today we demonstrated clearly that we in some 3.5 years from the first driller hole in Cloud Break have managed not only to construct a mine, not only to construct 260 kilometres of railway, not only to construct the port but to move our ore out of that mine along that rail, through that port and onto the first waiting vessel on the 15th of May when we said we would do it.

ALI MOORE: Do you think now that some of those naysayers, some of the domestic institutions will come on board?

GRAEME ROWLEY: I think they should. They'll all probably find out they're a touch light in our stock. I think it's unfortunate that they're doing it late in the piece.

But that's a challenge for them to get in there and obviously prove that along with everybody else that the Fortescue business is one very well worth supporting.

ALI MOORE: In terms of valuation, do you think it is going to change how Fortescue is viewed?

Because you are valued right now well above your 2013 production target?

GRAEME ROWLEY: I think the problem with valuations, Ali, is it depends on what assumptions people have put into their various models.

We would argue that if we are producing 160 million tonnes by 2013, I doubt that our shareholder, our share value as it is currently shown would, in fact exemplify what we would expect at that time.

Obviously it depends a whole lot on what happens to price between now and then.

We're confident of very strong market and, therefore, we remain confident of prices staying strong over time. And therefore, I would look at 2013 and us at 160 million tonnes as a very strong investment opportunity.

ALI MOORE: When it comes to expanding to that 160 million tonnes will you have to go back and raise more capital?

GRAEME ROWLEY: There are three options when we look at how we move into the expansion.

One obviously is debt. Not definitely our preferred option, it's the one we're currently in at the moment and one that we're managing successfully.

The second is an opportunity for some third party entrant by way of a joint venture and there are a number of parties out there that continue to demonstrate interest in joining Fortescue.

Obviously we listen to all their presentations and we hold our own counsel with respect to that.

But the third and obviously the most effective option that we look at is the very strong cash flows we'll have. We're expecting to see cash flows that will give us net dollars, well over a billion each year, then we obviously determine that that's going to support our cash flow, sorry, support our capital acquisitions, as well as payments to our various shareholders.

ALI MOORE: Indeed, how quickly do you think you will be paying a dividend?

GRAEME ROWLEY: I would expect that the end of the first year we'll be looking very seriously, that's 12 months from now, looking very seriously at the opportunity to be paying a dividend to our shareholders.

But we need to wait until that time.

ALI MOORE: You talked just then in terms of having three options and one of them being having a party take an equity stake.

There's been plenty of speculation regarding the likes of Baosteel, SinoSteel and Sinalco.

You say you've had various conversations, do you think it is the most likely solution in the short term that one of these three big players will take a stake?

GRAEME ROWLEY: There are already obviously at their own determination allowed to go into the marketplace.

We don't know whether they're doing that.

We are aware, of course, as is everybody that Russia went in for a stake in excess of five per cent.

We're not aware as yet of any moves by any other parties into our stock. We have heard rumours along with everybody else, but we've definitely not been in any discussions that indicate that other sorry, third parties are currently active in our stock.

But they could well be.

ALI MOORE: Would you welcome a large Chinese stakeholder?

GRAEME ROWLEY: We would see no problem in that. We are always happy to have third parties interested in our business who share the same goals that we do, which is a successful iron ore mining business. And clearly, when you have interest from China which is going to be one of the highest country demands in iron ore as we look into the future, we can understand that people there will obviously have a strong interest in our success, the same as we do.

ALI MOORE: That said, though, Andrew Forrest has resisted in the past the Chinese when they've wanted to take a big portion of the company.

What level of Chinese ownership would you be comfortable with?

GRAEME ROWLEY: Well, I can't actually speak for the board or for the shareholders, but we've always had the opportunity to discuss with various entities of the order of 10 to 15 per cent, but that's been in historical discussions and is not part of anything that we're looking at at this stage.

ALI MOORE: Is there anything to suggest that 10 to 15 per cent should change?

GRAEME ROWLEY: No, there isn't. No. Let me be very clear there, we are very, very keenly aware of the need to continue to control Fortescue.

Andrew's interests, management's interests, Leucadia's interests are very, very important to us. And we have not established such a strong shareholding to lose that as a result of what I would call inappropriate development in equity participation in the company, to the extent where we don't continue to maintain total control of Fortescue.

ALI MOORE: At the moment you've got Harbinger Capital with 16 per cent, is that the most you'd like to see any other party hold?

GRAEME ROWLEY: I would think that of that order of magnitude it definitely is the most we'd like to see another party have, yes.

ALI MOORE: Graeme Rowley, many thanks for talking to Lateline Business.

GRAEME ROWLEY: Ali Moore, thank you very much for the opportunity.

 

[alwaysactive]

From Adelaide Advertiser
14/05/2008

Fortescue, which started life as a junior explorer, has
been transformed under Mr Forrest's ownership into a
$26 billion company that aims to become a world
class iron ore exporter. Fortescue chief operating
officer Graeme Rowley said yesterday the first commercial
shipment would arrive in China no later than May 31.
He said both commissioning shipments were
bought at "commercial prices" by an as yet
unnamed Chinese buyer.

All aboard...

 

[rob]

FMG was my first ever trade. Bought at $9.30, 15 days ago (or 11 trading days). At close today I'm up 13.87%, which for me works out to be almost an entire weeks wage

Same here have been reading as much as i could find have decided to stick it out for the long haul, its nice when you do some research and listen to the wise ones and learning about the stock makes you feel like you are actually learning somthing especially when it pays off and will continue to look forward to an even better progress thanks every one for some good advise.

 

[agro]

Same here have been reading as much as i could find have decided to stick it out for the long haul, its nice when you do some research and listen to the wise ones and learning about the stock makes you feel like you are actually learning somthing especially when it pays off and will continue to look forward to an even better progress thanks every one for some good advise.

here at aussie stock forums we are more happy to provide any information we have


the more you know about a company, the better are your decisions on deciding whether to keep it or hold it..

obviously, sinosteel has done their homework and has decided to get a 2.2bn stake in FMG - again, the chinese know where to place their money

they look to the future, not to the present

 

[rob]

Just how far can fortescue go, thats another 7% for monday just amazing. Apparently i was talking about them in my sleep, maybe im studying to much.

 

[agro]

Just how far can fortescue go, thats another 7% for monday just amazing. Apparently i was talking about them in my sleep, maybe im studying to much.

well if history is anything to go by... probably another 400%

(if i can recall reading, FMG has been going up 400% every year)

i am joking - i doubt 400% - have to wait and c

 

[Saffron]

I'm pretty much a novice but my boss recommended Fortescue to me. I watched, I researched & I read as much as I could. I have been lurking here for 3 months reading up on people's thoughts on Fortescue. Eventually I did buy at $6.60. A friend's stockbroker daughter recommended I buy in at $7.00. It is so good to see them go over $10.00. I was sure their shares would go much further up.

 

[Khailor]

Read a while ago about Fortesque taking BHP to court over the use of the railway system (BHP owned it exclusively and didn't want Fortesque to use it). I think they failed in their bid to use the railway but something about the case being reopened... or am I tracking very behind in the news. Looks like "Twiggy: is a 10 billionaire. If only I owned 36.5% of FMG....

 

[Spineli]

well if history is anything to go by... probably another 400%

(if i can recall reading, FMG has been going up 400% every year)

i am joking - i doubt 400% - have to wait and c

Somewhere toward the end of 2002, FMG was trading at $0.004

On a $10 share price, that equates to a 2500 multiple!

i.e. $50k investment (2002) would be worth $125,000,000 (2008)

Thats something you can stack up against the return on Berkshire since 1965 - over 400,000%

 

[qazw80]

FMG is probably one of the top ones on my list that I had picked and feel proud of. Have seen its SP going up like rocket from $9 in the past week to today's breaking $10. In fact I had adjusted my parcel to $10.5 just few days ago and was thinking to aim higher and wanted to set it at $11 pending new ann to come out.

Couldn't believe my eyes when I got home and saw the SP went up by nearly 7% today and so my $10.5 parcel was gone.

As Nick said, good luck to the rest of you who are still holding this stock.

My target was met and i lefted-this has been such a good stock to me-

i like to see who hold's do well has sky's the limit with this stock-

good luck to everyone-

Thanks

Nick--

 

[barnz2k]

anybody think it will drop below $10 again? thinking of selling some duds and putting it into FMG, i bought in at 6.50 and already great gains but it might go well further in long term. who knows, maybe we will look back on $10 as being cheap!

 

[rob]

Yet another great day for FMG with a top sp of 10.70 but still finishing 3% higher @ 10.630. There also seems to be tons of interest from chinese investers that can anly be more good news as well as the delivery of ore arriving today. nice one fortiscue.

 

[agro]

Yet another great day for FMG with a top sp of 10.70 but still finishing 3% higher @ 10.630. There also seems to be tons of interest from chinese investers that can anly be more good news as well as the delivery of ore arriving today. nice one fortiscue.

Fortescue says would welcome Chinese participation
http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssIndustryMaterialsUtilitiesNews/idUSSHA20284120080529


NINGBO, China, May 29 (Reuters) - Australian iron ore miner Fortescue Metals Group Ltd (FMG.AX: Quote, Profile, Research) would welcome major Chinese companies' participation in the company through joint ventures, share deals and financing, the company's founder said on Thursday.

Fortescue founder Andrew Forrest made the remarks after an event to mark the first shipment of Fortescue iron ore to Baosteel Group, China's largest steelmaker and parent of Baoshan Iron & Steel Co Ltd (600019.SS: Quote, Profile, Research).

"The Chinese industrial champion takes Fortescue very seriously and we will encourage its participation in the future of Fortescue," Forrest said.

"We have been in talks with the champions of Chinese industry for five years. We encourage Chinese industrial champions to participate in the future of Fortescue through joint ventures, shares, financing," he said. (Reporting by Fang Yan; Writing by Edmund Klamann; Editing by Ken Wills)

 

[michael_selway]

Somewhere toward the end of 2002, FMG was trading at $0.004

On a $10 share price, that equates to a 2500 multiple!

i.e. $50k investment (2002) would be worth $125,000,000 (2008)

Thats something you can stack up against the return on Berkshire since 1965 - over 400,000%

Hi Spineli, wait dont forget the 10 for 1 share split!, its $100.00+ now actually!

thx

MS

-------------

 

[agro]

blue skys ahead for FMG

you get people in here mentioning its over-valued which may be the case but you have to remember that less than 10% is in the holding of the public

most of it is held by chinese steel companies and twiggy..

5% by aussie brokers i think..


new 52 week high by the way - cracked $11

 

[my mirror lies]

I'm a yank who bought 10,000 shares after the split for $5.70US, so you know I'm very happy about this investment. Prior to the split the price was $53US. My question is how did the price go so high when the company had not produced any product at the time?

 

[the barry]

I'm a yank who bought 10,000 shares after the split for $5.70US, so you know I'm very happy about this investment. Prior to the split the price was $53US. My question is how did the price go so high when the company had not produced any product at the time?

You have to look at the market cap and not the share price. How so many people don't understand this relationship is beyond me. Should be one of the first things you learn to look at when deciding whether a company is undervalued or overvalued. No offence meant by this post, but on what justification did you buy this stock?

 

[MRC & Co]

You have to look at the market cap and not the share price. How so many people don't understand this relationship is beyond me. Should be one of the first things you learn to look at when deciding whether a company is undervalued or overvalued. No offence meant by this post, but on what justification did you buy this stock?

Can you please elaborate?

I barely EVER look at market cap and do not use it when running an intrinsic value equation.

You 'value' your stock and then compare to it's current price.